@cliffordinwales.bsky.social
Reposted
If the UK does not opt for EU membership, it has a choice between having its legal and policy frameworks shaped by the EU with seamless access to the EU's trade system and having the UK's legal and policy frameworks shaped by the EU with limited access to the EU's trade system.
I spoke to WATO about the Brexit options the UK can choose from
October 5, 2026 at 10:58 AM
If the UK does not opt for EU membership, it has a choice between having its legal and policy frameworks shaped by the EU with seamless access to the EU's trade system and having the UK's legal and policy frameworks shaped by the EU with limited access to the EU's trade system.
Reposted
Most Europeans would support a UK return to the EU
• French and Italian voters are least enthusiastic, but they still broadly approve of potential UK return
• Potential UK referendum could complicate talks; EU officials would be wary of investing time in talks for nothing
www.ft.com/content/3d43...
• French and Italian voters are least enthusiastic, but they still broadly approve of potential UK return
• Potential UK referendum could complicate talks; EU officials would be wary of investing time in talks for nothing
www.ft.com/content/3d43...
October 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Most Europeans would support a UK return to the EU
• French and Italian voters are least enthusiastic, but they still broadly approve of potential UK return
• Potential UK referendum could complicate talks; EU officials would be wary of investing time in talks for nothing
www.ft.com/content/3d43...
• French and Italian voters are least enthusiastic, but they still broadly approve of potential UK return
• Potential UK referendum could complicate talks; EU officials would be wary of investing time in talks for nothing
www.ft.com/content/3d43...
Reposted
I think there’s a misunderstanding of the term “EU Accession negotiations”.
Negotiation, in this sense, is primarily over how and by when an applicant will implement or align with each area of EU law (Acquis Communautaire), and then whether they‘ve done that.
It’s not over *whether* they will.
Negotiation, in this sense, is primarily over how and by when an applicant will implement or align with each area of EU law (Acquis Communautaire), and then whether they‘ve done that.
It’s not over *whether* they will.
October 4, 2026 at 5:19 PM
I think there’s a misunderstanding of the term “EU Accession negotiations”.
Negotiation, in this sense, is primarily over how and by when an applicant will implement or align with each area of EU law (Acquis Communautaire), and then whether they‘ve done that.
It’s not over *whether* they will.
Negotiation, in this sense, is primarily over how and by when an applicant will implement or align with each area of EU law (Acquis Communautaire), and then whether they‘ve done that.
It’s not over *whether* they will.
Reposted
NEW ANALYSIS: Record wind and solar save UK from gas imports worth £5.9bn during Hormuz crisis
🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date
🏭 gas down ~10%
🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided
🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date
🏭 gas down ~10%
🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided
September 30, 2026 at 3:13 PM
NEW ANALYSIS: Record wind and solar save UK from gas imports worth £5.9bn during Hormuz crisis
🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date
🏭 gas down ~10%
🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided
🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date
🏭 gas down ~10%
🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided
Reposted
Integrating into the Single Market and a Customs Union but not full membership for the UK should be the realistic target set by Brussels.
If UK state elites as well as voters can't cope with either the trade-offs of full membership or lack of input on Single Market rules without it, well tough.
If UK state elites as well as voters can't cope with either the trade-offs of full membership or lack of input on Single Market rules without it, well tough.
On rejoining the EU
Support: 55%
Oppose: 34%
... but on the conditions of single currency and Schengen membership
Support: 35%
Oppose: 43%
via YouGov, Jun 2026
britainelects.substack.com/p/is-rejoin-...
Support: 55%
Oppose: 34%
... but on the conditions of single currency and Schengen membership
Support: 35%
Oppose: 43%
via YouGov, Jun 2026
britainelects.substack.com/p/is-rejoin-...
Is Rejoin happening anytime soon?
Ten years on from the EU referendum
britainelects.substack.com
October 1, 2026 at 6:51 AM
Integrating into the Single Market and a Customs Union but not full membership for the UK should be the realistic target set by Brussels.
If UK state elites as well as voters can't cope with either the trade-offs of full membership or lack of input on Single Market rules without it, well tough.
If UK state elites as well as voters can't cope with either the trade-offs of full membership or lack of input on Single Market rules without it, well tough.
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Important - and on the nail - point by the Prime Minister here. (www.ft.com/content/ef10... Burnham clears path to EU summit with post-Brexit breakthrough - £).
September 30, 2026 at 8:37 PM
Important - and on the nail - point by the Prime Minister here. (www.ft.com/content/ef10... Burnham clears path to EU summit with post-Brexit breakthrough - £).
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Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown
• Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports
• China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3%
www.economist.com/business/202...
• Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports
• China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3%
www.economist.com/business/202...
September 29, 2026 at 7:00 AM
Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown
• Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports
• China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3%
www.economist.com/business/202...
• Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports
• China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3%
www.economist.com/business/202...
Reposted
The UK isn't an especially homeownership oriented society. Its Germany and co who are weird.
UK is also one less than 10 societies in the world where social housing exceeds 10% of total stock.
UK is also one less than 10 societies in the world where social housing exceeds 10% of total stock.
September 28, 2026 at 9:18 AM
The UK isn't an especially homeownership oriented society. Its Germany and co who are weird.
UK is also one less than 10 societies in the world where social housing exceeds 10% of total stock.
UK is also one less than 10 societies in the world where social housing exceeds 10% of total stock.
Reposted
Superb and fascinating chart.
Can the arts business model survive AI? Perhaps the best guide is to look at how the arts survived past tech revolutions
Take music—internet piracy and then streaming killed the lucrative CD market, but musicians mostly saved their jobs by focusing much more on live concerts
Take music—internet piracy and then streaming killed the lucrative CD market, but musicians mostly saved their jobs by focusing much more on live concerts
September 28, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Superb and fascinating chart.
Reposted
Democratic constitutions struggle everywhere to restrain determined authoritarians where politics are polarised.
bsky.app/profile/samf...
bsky.app/profile/samf...
September 28, 2026 at 10:10 AM
Democratic constitutions struggle everywhere to restrain determined authoritarians where politics are polarised.
bsky.app/profile/samf...
bsky.app/profile/samf...
Reposted
It will take extensive positive engagement from UK folk in Brussels to prove seriousness sufficient for any significant closer relationship. encompass-europe.com/comment/how-...
How to achieve UK aims in Brussels
(a companion piece to everything Brussels really thinks about the UK)
There are 27 countries present and permanently negotiating almost every policy area in Brussels. These are the member…
encompass-europe.com
September 24, 2026 at 2:26 PM
It will take extensive positive engagement from UK folk in Brussels to prove seriousness sufficient for any significant closer relationship. encompass-europe.com/comment/how-...
Reposted
Another thought on this: we’re going to end up with PR-like electoral fragmentation, but without any of the predictability. Worst of both worlds.
YouGov's September 2026 MRP projects that Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow
Labour: 241 (-170 from 2024)
Conservatives: 130 (+9)
Reform UK: 123 (+118)
Lib Dems: 71 (-1)
SNP: 40 (+31)
Plaid Cymru: 15 (+11)
Greens: 9 (+5)
Others: 3 (-3)
Labour: 241 (-170 from 2024)
Conservatives: 130 (+9)
Reform UK: 123 (+118)
Lib Dems: 71 (-1)
SNP: 40 (+31)
Plaid Cymru: 15 (+11)
Greens: 9 (+5)
Others: 3 (-3)
September 24, 2026 at 7:36 AM
Another thought on this: we’re going to end up with PR-like electoral fragmentation, but without any of the predictability. Worst of both worlds.
Reposted
There is a lot of misinformation about the UK social security spending.
The chart below shows Total UK social security spending as a percentage of GDP, 2013/14 to 2030/31 (spending & forecast)
55% goes to pensioners, the remainder covers everything else.
lordslibrary.parliament.uk/welfare-refo...
The chart below shows Total UK social security spending as a percentage of GDP, 2013/14 to 2030/31 (spending & forecast)
55% goes to pensioners, the remainder covers everything else.
lordslibrary.parliament.uk/welfare-refo...
September 23, 2026 at 9:34 AM
There is a lot of misinformation about the UK social security spending.
The chart below shows Total UK social security spending as a percentage of GDP, 2013/14 to 2030/31 (spending & forecast)
55% goes to pensioners, the remainder covers everything else.
lordslibrary.parliament.uk/welfare-refo...
The chart below shows Total UK social security spending as a percentage of GDP, 2013/14 to 2030/31 (spending & forecast)
55% goes to pensioners, the remainder covers everything else.
lordslibrary.parliament.uk/welfare-refo...
Reposted
My latest for @economist.com: AI writing is taking over politics.
10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
September 23, 2026 at 7:50 PM
My latest for @economist.com: AI writing is taking over politics.
10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
Reposted
Thomas Edison in 1910. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves on this net zero business, lads
September 22, 2026 at 8:22 PM
Thomas Edison in 1910. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves on this net zero business, lads
Reposted
Britain... It's a class act. 🎩
Privately Educated:
Senior Armed Forces 63%
Senior Judges: 62%
House of Lords: 52%
Foreign Office Diplomats: 53%
Newspaper Columnists: 50%
Political Commentators: 47%
Leading Podcasters: 45%
BBC Executives: 38%
General Population: 7%
elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
Privately Educated:
Senior Armed Forces 63%
Senior Judges: 62%
House of Lords: 52%
Foreign Office Diplomats: 53%
Newspaper Columnists: 50%
Political Commentators: 47%
Leading Podcasters: 45%
BBC Executives: 38%
General Population: 7%
elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
Elitist Britain 2025
elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
September 22, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Britain... It's a class act. 🎩
Privately Educated:
Senior Armed Forces 63%
Senior Judges: 62%
House of Lords: 52%
Foreign Office Diplomats: 53%
Newspaper Columnists: 50%
Political Commentators: 47%
Leading Podcasters: 45%
BBC Executives: 38%
General Population: 7%
elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
Privately Educated:
Senior Armed Forces 63%
Senior Judges: 62%
House of Lords: 52%
Foreign Office Diplomats: 53%
Newspaper Columnists: 50%
Political Commentators: 47%
Leading Podcasters: 45%
BBC Executives: 38%
General Population: 7%
elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
Reposted
Great thread thoroughly dismantling this chap’s rather misleading implication that because he’s made it, anyone else can.
A landlord making £100,000 a month says young people have “no excuse to be poor”.
Excellent. I love financial advice.
Gather round, children, let's examine how he himself stopped being poor.
metro.co.uk/2026/09/20/i...
Excellent. I love financial advice.
Gather round, children, let's examine how he himself stopped being poor.
metro.co.uk/2026/09/20/i...
I’m a landlord making £100,000 a month — young people have no excuse to be poor
Samuel bought his first home aged 17 with a 100% mortgage.
metro.co.uk
September 22, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Great thread thoroughly dismantling this chap’s rather misleading implication that because he’s made it, anyone else can.
Reposted
how much has Trump's war in the Middle East cost British home-owners in higher mortgage payments?
"British homeowners are paying an average of £840 a year more when they refinance their mortgages, as the rising borrowing costs triggered by the Iran war start to impact"
www.ft.com/content/789c...
"British homeowners are paying an average of £840 a year more when they refinance their mortgages, as the rising borrowing costs triggered by the Iran war start to impact"
www.ft.com/content/789c...
UK homeowners take £840-a-year mortgage hit from Iran war
Rising borrowing costs triggered by conflict in Middle East start to impact consumers’ spending power
www.ft.com
September 22, 2026 at 7:02 AM
how much has Trump's war in the Middle East cost British home-owners in higher mortgage payments?
"British homeowners are paying an average of £840 a year more when they refinance their mortgages, as the rising borrowing costs triggered by the Iran war start to impact"
www.ft.com/content/789c...
"British homeowners are paying an average of £840 a year more when they refinance their mortgages, as the rising borrowing costs triggered by the Iran war start to impact"
www.ft.com/content/789c...
Reposted
Canada will struggle to deepen economic ties with the EU for the same reasons the UK failed to break them.
New MFN: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/gravity-al...
New MFN: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/gravity-al...
Gravity Always Wins
Alas.
mostfavourednation.substack.com
September 20, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Canada will struggle to deepen economic ties with the EU for the same reasons the UK failed to break them.
New MFN: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/gravity-al...
New MFN: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/gravity-al...
Reposted
I see more billionaires are perpetuating the myth that the UK is high-tax, high-govt spending. It just isn’t true.
At 44% the UK’s public spending as a %of GDP is lower than most of its European peers (France 57%, Germany 49.5%, Sweden 49.3%, Italy 50.5%, Spain 45.3%)
www.imf.org/external/dat...
At 44% the UK’s public spending as a %of GDP is lower than most of its European peers (France 57%, Germany 49.5%, Sweden 49.3%, Italy 50.5%, Spain 45.3%)
www.imf.org/external/dat...
© 2021 International Monetary Fund. All rights reserved.
www.imf.org
September 19, 2026 at 11:05 AM
I see more billionaires are perpetuating the myth that the UK is high-tax, high-govt spending. It just isn’t true.
At 44% the UK’s public spending as a %of GDP is lower than most of its European peers (France 57%, Germany 49.5%, Sweden 49.3%, Italy 50.5%, Spain 45.3%)
www.imf.org/external/dat...
At 44% the UK’s public spending as a %of GDP is lower than most of its European peers (France 57%, Germany 49.5%, Sweden 49.3%, Italy 50.5%, Spain 45.3%)
www.imf.org/external/dat...
Reposted
Tories, early 2010s: "We've raised the tax-free allowance, taking low-paid workers out of having to pay income tax. Aren't we great!"
2020s: "Isn't it terrible that these low-paid immigrants aren't paying enough tax"
2020s: "Isn't it terrible that these low-paid immigrants aren't paying enough tax"
"in order to be a net fiscal contributor over their lifetime, the average couple arriving in the UK at age 30 needs the primary earner to have a salary at the 55th percentile of the overall earnings distribution, compared to the 45th in France and 28th in Germany"
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Unpacking the real fiscal costs of immigration
Low taxes on low earners mean the same immigrants cost the UK more than they would elsewhere
giftarticle.ft.com
September 19, 2026 at 8:37 AM
Tories, early 2010s: "We've raised the tax-free allowance, taking low-paid workers out of having to pay income tax. Aren't we great!"
2020s: "Isn't it terrible that these low-paid immigrants aren't paying enough tax"
2020s: "Isn't it terrible that these low-paid immigrants aren't paying enough tax"
Reposted
Damn. @tobyn.bsky.social has produced the most detailed map of Big AI’s incestuous relationships I’ve seen so far. And it’s interactive! www.ft.com/content/8475...
September 18, 2026 at 6:20 AM
Damn. @tobyn.bsky.social has produced the most detailed map of Big AI’s incestuous relationships I’ve seen so far. And it’s interactive! www.ft.com/content/8475...
Reposted
I love this slide. I really don't think the geopolitical implications of the clean energy transition have sunk in for most people.
September 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM
I love this slide. I really don't think the geopolitical implications of the clean energy transition have sunk in for most people.
Reposted
