Benjamin Braun
@benbraun.social
Political economist @ LSE, currently visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study | benjaminbraun.org
Economics
77%
Political science
12%
That’s both main intelligence services utterly and spectacularly discredited by rot from the top.
Former German spy chief arrested for treason
Ex-intelligence head August Hanning suspected of selling state secrets to foreign power
www.ft.com
Thousands of top-level intelligence briefings for the chancellor, systematically shared by the chief of staff with Hanning, who passed them on to a foreign power for money, for more than a decade (not Russia, apparently). Discovered by chance, in an unrelated search of his property. Unbelievable.
Reposted by Benjamin Braun
Under Sarkozy, Hollande, and Macron, France became a tax haven, multiplying fiscal schemes for large firms and wealthy households. Public budgets now lack billions. Now financial markets put more pressure. Meanwhile, high school students protest because they don't have enough teachers - or desks.
Takeaway #2: A stock market crash is coming; it will be major; sovereign bonds will be a hedge again. In other words, if you're an embattled issuer (looking at you, London, Paris) hang in there.
If you're a non-US technocrat who thinks they're getting "strangled by interest rates" (BdF governor today), your escape routes are
- a massive AI productivity boom that is very unlikely
- a massive AI stock market crash that is very likely
Unusual incentives, to say the least.
- a massive AI productivity boom that is very unlikely
- a massive AI stock market crash that is very likely
Unusual incentives, to say the least.
Takeaway #2: A stock market crash is coming; it will be major; sovereign bonds will be a hedge again. In other words, if you're an embattled issuer (looking at you, London, Paris) hang in there.
Excellent @ericlonners.bsky.social post on bond market dynamics, Japan, and the bond-equity correlation over time.
Takeaway #1 ("Dalio fallacy"): The rise in yields is not about debt – unless you're unlucky enough to be a eurozone member state.
ericlonergan915540.substack.com/p/the-dalio-...
Takeaway #1 ("Dalio fallacy"): The rise in yields is not about debt – unless you're unlucky enough to be a eurozone member state.
ericlonergan915540.substack.com/p/the-dalio-...
Reposted by Benjamin Braun
Wenn ein Staat im Dienst der Bürger "linke Wirtschaftspolitik" ist, was wollen dann eigentlich die anderen Demokratinnen und Demokraten!?