All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use:

- Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...

Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)

Great lecture by @richarddriley.bsky.social about uncertainty around individual estimates in clinical prediction models

The Bayesian framework is the natural solution

However, how should one correct for performance optimism in Bayesian models? Bootstrap?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3dc...

Excellent research + extremely clear presentation = great result. I've started a discussion of the new modeling sample size paper at discourse.datamethods.org/t/discussion... where I hope @richarddriley.bsky.social and others will respond. #StatsSky #Statistics

@rmcelreath.bsky.social does orange fur cause crazy behavior in cats? Is there a DAG for that?

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
Sharing my last paper. It was an attempt to quantify /proof something suspected for a long time. Dengue can trigger Guillain-Barré syndrome (we have case reports from 1998).
1/n
#episky

I am grateful to Scott Berry for inviting me onto his podcast
55: A Visit with Stephen Senn: Time, Concurrent Controls, and the Bayesian Guidance
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnb0...

Nice example to explore type M and S errors

If we assume true effect is HR = 0.7:
- 11% chance that the estimate is in the wrong direction
- Magnitude of the effect is exaggerated by a factor of 5.2

If HR = 0.5
- S-type error= 1.5%
- M-type= exaggerated by a factor of 2.8

code: shorturl.at/Ba8nG

Very interesting distributions from a RCT of antibiotic. Bimodal peaking at 0 and ~7, while also truncated at 0

What distribution would fit this best?

✨ New open-access book✨
I’ve seen how powerful prediction models can be, but also how often they fall short. We wrote a book, covering not just development, but also when models are needed, and how to ensure real-world impact.
www.maastrichtuniversitypress.nl/cpm

@gscollins.bsky.social could you please send me a screenshot of your letter? thanks jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

COULD EVERYONE PLEASE STOP USING RANDOM EFFECTS META-ANALYSIS WHEN COMBINING 3 OR 4 TRIALS? AND COULD REVIEWERS STOP DEMANDING IT?

Couldn't hold myself, had to fit a #Bayesian cumulative ordinal model to this interesting data:

Canadian intensivists and nephrologists don't seem to disagree much!

Added a statistical analysis tab to explore Bayesian partial pooling visualization (cc @rmcelreath.bsky.social). Added some model explanations too.

Data viz heavily inspired by @benmoran.bsky.social's beautiful bayesfoRest package

Amazing work. I was particularly interested in visualizations for studies on dexmedetomidine for investigating dosage, timing, risk of bias.

Vibe-coded this app: arthur-albuquerque.github.io/dexmedetomid... Example visualization attached.

code: github.com/arthur-albuq...

I'd love some feedback