Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
Pinned
Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
· Jan 14
DVOA Explainer
An explanation of DVOA, DYAR, and Aaron Schatz's other advanced stats.
ftnfantasy.com
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
One of the neat things you can do with FTN's Stats iQ is the player comparison feature -- putting up to four players side by side. You can, for instance, look at the top four players in the current MVP odds, and quickly see where each one succeeds.
September 23, 2026 at 6:02 PM
One of the neat things you can do with FTN's Stats iQ is the player comparison feature -- putting up to four players side by side. You can, for instance, look at the top four players in the current MVP odds, and quickly see where each one succeeds.
New from @brykno.bsky.social at @ftnfantasy.com: The annual DOOM Index, looking at the chances for all the 0-2 teams.
Based on Vegas spreads, the Chargers had the least likely 0-2 start since 1955! Read more about it here:
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2026-doo...
Based on Vegas spreads, the Chargers had the least likely 0-2 start since 1955! Read more about it here:
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2026-doo...
2026 DOOM Index: The Chargers Shock
All the 0-2 teams are DOOMED, but who's doomed the most? And how did the Chargers get to this point with two surprising losses?
ftnfantasy.com
September 23, 2026 at 3:56 PM
New from @brykno.bsky.social at @ftnfantasy.com: The annual DOOM Index, looking at the chances for all the 0-2 teams.
Based on Vegas spreads, the Chargers had the least likely 0-2 start since 1955! Read more about it here:
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2026-doo...
Based on Vegas spreads, the Chargers had the least likely 0-2 start since 1955! Read more about it here:
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2026-doo...
FTN brings you great data! There's so much more than this, and you should contact us to find out how you can use it.
🎤 Taps mic: Is this thing on?
Testing… testing… 1, 2.
Sooooo.....
Some of you may remember my old Formations app, which used NFL Participation data before the NFL ditched it.
Well, @ftnfantasy.com changed that.
Jefe’s Team Personnel is live!
www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-p...
Testing… testing… 1, 2.
Sooooo.....
Some of you may remember my old Formations app, which used NFL Participation data before the NFL ditched it.
Well, @ftnfantasy.com changed that.
Jefe’s Team Personnel is live!
www.jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-p...
Jefe's Team Personnel
NFL team personnel and formation data from FTN Data and nflverse.
www.JefesHandiwork.com
September 22, 2026 at 8:46 PM
FTN brings you great data! There's so much more than this, and you should contact us to find out how you can use it.
I've now updated the playoff odds simulation for the injuries to Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LXI
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LXI based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
September 22, 2026 at 7:57 PM
I've now updated the playoff odds simulation for the injuries to Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Sometimes, like with Caleb Williams, it may be better than you initially thought it was.
Sometimes, it turns out worse than you initially thought it was.
Sigh.
Sometimes, it turns out worse than you initially thought it was.
Sigh.
Giants QB Jaxson Dart suffered a knee injury last night that was worse than anticipated, sources told me and Mike Garafolo after the MRI.
He’s out an extended period of time, possibly the season.
He’s out an extended period of time, possibly the season.
September 22, 2026 at 6:47 PM
Sometimes, like with Caleb Williams, it may be better than you initially thought it was.
Sometimes, it turns out worse than you initially thought it was.
Sigh.
Sometimes, it turns out worse than you initially thought it was.
Sigh.
Case Keenum is my age.
Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol
Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol.
dlvr.it
September 22, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Case Keenum is my age.
I had pretty much written off Van Ness too, but he's been a bright spot for the Packers early.
Props to LVN, a huge % of Packer fans had written him off as a bust.
September 22, 2026 at 6:12 PM
I had pretty much written off Van Ness too, but he's been a bright spot for the Packers early.
You can now download updated drive stats, pace stats, and individual defense stats from the DVOA Downloads/Archive page if you are an FTN subscriber.
September 22, 2026 at 6:00 PM
You can now download updated drive stats, pace stats, and individual defense stats from the DVOA Downloads/Archive page if you are an FTN subscriber.
Early leaders in Defeats
L.Van Ness GB 9
Z.Baun PHI 8
D.Lloyd CAR 8
E.Cooper GB 7
T.J.Watt PIT 7
Defeats: TFL + TO + plays to prevent conversion on 3rd/4th
L.Van Ness GB 9
Z.Baun PHI 8
D.Lloyd CAR 8
E.Cooper GB 7
T.J.Watt PIT 7
Defeats: TFL + TO + plays to prevent conversion on 3rd/4th
September 22, 2026 at 5:54 PM
Early leaders in Defeats
L.Van Ness GB 9
Z.Baun PHI 8
D.Lloyd CAR 8
E.Cooper GB 7
T.J.Watt PIT 7
Defeats: TFL + TO + plays to prevent conversion on 3rd/4th
L.Van Ness GB 9
Z.Baun PHI 8
D.Lloyd CAR 8
E.Cooper GB 7
T.J.Watt PIT 7
Defeats: TFL + TO + plays to prevent conversion on 3rd/4th
Current leaders in knockdowns (hits/sacks) including plays cancelled by penalties:
Dallas Turner MIN 11
Greg Rousseau BUF 9
Nobody else has more than 6.
Dallas Turner MIN 11
Greg Rousseau BUF 9
Nobody else has more than 6.
September 22, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Current leaders in knockdowns (hits/sacks) including plays cancelled by penalties:
Dallas Turner MIN 11
Greg Rousseau BUF 9
Nobody else has more than 6.
Dallas Turner MIN 11
Greg Rousseau BUF 9
Nobody else has more than 6.
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
The 49ers are on pace to go 17-0 and lose 34 wide receivers. Who will Brock Purdy be throwing to in Week 18?
The Full, Extended 49ers Wide Receiver Depth Chart
The 49ers are on pace to go 17-0 and lose 34 wide receivers. Who will Brock Purdy be throwing to in Week 18?
lateral-thinking.ghost.io
September 22, 2026 at 1:15 PM
The 49ers are on pace to go 17-0 and lose 34 wide receivers. Who will Brock Purdy be throwing to in Week 18?
Football Cards of the Day: 1980 Topps Giants and Chiefs checklists
It's interesting to me how these old Topps checklists let you know who the popular teams were. Look how many more players got cards for NYG (6-10 in 1979) than for KC (7-9).
It's interesting to me how these old Topps checklists let you know who the popular teams were. Look how many more players got cards for NYG (6-10 in 1979) than for KC (7-9).
September 22, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Football Cards of the Day: 1980 Topps Giants and Chiefs checklists
It's interesting to me how these old Topps checklists let you know who the popular teams were. Look how many more players got cards for NYG (6-10 in 1979) than for KC (7-9).
It's interesting to me how these old Topps checklists let you know who the popular teams were. Look how many more players got cards for NYG (6-10 in 1979) than for KC (7-9).
People say that Trump likes to build things but what he really likes most is renaming things.
Trump tells the UN he is officially changing the name of Artificial Intelligence to "Super Intelligence" and says all US government documents will now be changed to refer to "SI"
September 22, 2026 at 3:39 PM
People say that Trump likes to build things but what he really likes most is renaming things.
Tidbits from the new DVOA commentary:
Ravens a surprising 3rd, outplayed Saints but lost
Rams top 10 in offense/defense, dead last in special teams
Falcons pass offense historically bad
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-d...
Ravens a surprising 3rd, outplayed Saints but lost
Rams top 10 in offense/defense, dead last in special teams
Falcons pass offense historically bad
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-d...
Week 2 DVOA: 49ers and Bills Up, Falcons and Dolphins Down
The 49ers remain on top of our DVOA ratings after two weeks, ahead of the Bills. The Falcons struggle to pass the ball while the Dolphins just struggle.
ftnfantasy.com
September 22, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Tidbits from the new DVOA commentary:
Ravens a surprising 3rd, outplayed Saints but lost
Rams top 10 in offense/defense, dead last in special teams
Falcons pass offense historically bad
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-d...
Ravens a surprising 3rd, outplayed Saints but lost
Rams top 10 in offense/defense, dead last in special teams
Falcons pass offense historically bad
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-d...
A quick edition of Quick Reads, with the best and worst players of Week 2 by DYAR. It was a good week for Brock Purdy, and a surprisingly bad one for Ashton Jeanty.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-q...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-q...
Week 2 Quick Reads: Purdy, Purdy, Purdy Good
Brock Purdy and Davante Adams were among the top players of Week 2 by our DYAR metric.
ftnfantasy.com
September 22, 2026 at 2:24 PM
A quick edition of Quick Reads, with the best and worst players of Week 2 by DYAR. It was a good week for Brock Purdy, and a surprisingly bad one for Ashton Jeanty.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-q...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-2-q...
DVOA playoff odds now updated. We give a 10.2% chance of the Marshawn Lynch Classic in Super Bowl LXI.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LXI
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LXI based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
September 22, 2026 at 1:45 PM
DVOA playoff odds now updated. We give a 10.2% chance of the Marshawn Lynch Classic in Super Bowl LXI.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
DVOA is now updated on @ftnfantasy.com through Week 2. San Francisco is No. 1 in DVOA. Baltimore is a surprising third. Buffalo leads in DAVE, which incorporates preseason projections.
Commentary to come later today.
ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Commentary to come later today.
ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Team Total DVOA
Check out every NFL team's total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). DVOA helps identify the top teams in the league using advanced analytics. %
ftnfantasy.com
September 22, 2026 at 1:44 PM
DVOA is now updated on @ftnfantasy.com through Week 2. San Francisco is No. 1 in DVOA. Baltimore is a surprising third. Buffalo leads in DAVE, which incorporates preseason projections.
Commentary to come later today.
ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Commentary to come later today.
ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Falcons with fifth-worst pass DVOA through 2 weeks, ever. Atlanta fans say "Thank god for Michael Penix Jr."
It's kind of amazing how many teams on this table had wins. I went to 13 teams because... the 1997 49ers? Yes, the 1997 49ers.
It's kind of amazing how many teams on this table had wins. I went to 13 teams because... the 1997 49ers? Yes, the 1997 49ers.
September 22, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Falcons with fifth-worst pass DVOA through 2 weeks, ever. Atlanta fans say "Thank god for Michael Penix Jr."
It's kind of amazing how many teams on this table had wins. I went to 13 teams because... the 1997 49ers? Yes, the 1997 49ers.
It's kind of amazing how many teams on this table had wins. I went to 13 teams because... the 1997 49ers? Yes, the 1997 49ers.
Is it OK to say that Aaron Donald looks good but so far he's not dominating and requiring double teams like pre-retirement Donald?
September 22, 2026 at 1:18 AM
Is it OK to say that Aaron Donald looks good but so far he's not dominating and requiring double teams like pre-retirement Donald?
Davante Adams just turning poor Tyler Nubin around there.
September 22, 2026 at 1:02 AM
Davante Adams just turning poor Tyler Nubin around there.
This game just making me feel more like the Rams really blew that Australia thing. Also, we forgot how good the 49ers are before the injuries smack them down.
September 22, 2026 at 12:48 AM
This game just making me feel more like the Rams really blew that Australia thing. Also, we forgot how good the 49ers are before the injuries smack them down.
I'm still offended that the league refers to the Rams as LA and the Chargers as LAC. When the Rams moved to LA, we knew the Chargers were going a year later. They should have been LAR all along!
September 22, 2026 at 12:37 AM
I'm still offended that the league refers to the Rams as LA and the Chargers as LAC. When the Rams moved to LA, we knew the Chargers were going a year later. They should have been LAR all along!
I don't think the longer regular season is a reason for a rash of injuries in Week 2.
The problem with a longer regular season is not catastrophic injuries. It's the effect of repetitive trauma on these guys as they grow older after retirement.
The problem with a longer regular season is not catastrophic injuries. It's the effect of repetitive trauma on these guys as they grow older after retirement.
September 22, 2026 at 12:29 AM
I don't think the longer regular season is a reason for a rash of injuries in Week 2.
The problem with a longer regular season is not catastrophic injuries. It's the effect of repetitive trauma on these guys as they grow older after retirement.
The problem with a longer regular season is not catastrophic injuries. It's the effect of repetitive trauma on these guys as they grow older after retirement.
FFS with the injuries so far this year.
September 22, 2026 at 12:22 AM
FFS with the injuries so far this year.
Didn't the Rams wear these in that legendary 54-51 game against the Chiefs?
September 22, 2026 at 12:18 AM
Didn't the Rams wear these in that legendary 54-51 game against the Chiefs?