Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst).
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Pinned
Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
· Dec 10
Very excited to see The Wage Standard in The Next Big Idea Club's Must Read Books list!
This paper by @davidautor.bsky.social & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning.
It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching.
www.nber.org/papers/w35720
It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching.
www.nber.org/papers/w35720
Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
September 18, 2026 at 11:35 PM
This paper by @davidautor.bsky.social & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning.
It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching.
www.nber.org/papers/w35720
It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching.
www.nber.org/papers/w35720
Reposted by Arin Dube
From EFIP member Arin Dube: "...the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change."
Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change.
Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
September 18, 2026 at 2:43 PM
From EFIP member Arin Dube: "...the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change."
Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change.
Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
September 17, 2026 at 2:11 AM
Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change.
Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
I am looking forward to giving talks on The Wage Standard in Europe - in Wien, Oxford, London (Resolution Foundation), and Torino (Intl. festival of economics).
October will be a busy month!
Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon!
1/
October will be a busy month!
Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon!
1/
September 16, 2026 at 1:28 AM
I am looking forward to giving talks on The Wage Standard in Europe - in Wien, Oxford, London (Resolution Foundation), and Torino (Intl. festival of economics).
October will be a busy month!
Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon!
1/
October will be a busy month!
Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon!
1/
A tale of two inequalities. Wage inequality stopped growing circa 2015 and fell especially in post-pandemic period.
In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share.
Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.
In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share.
Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.
September 16, 2026 at 12:04 AM
A tale of two inequalities. Wage inequality stopped growing circa 2015 and fell especially in post-pandemic period.
In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share.
Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.
In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share.
Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.
Reposted by Arin Dube
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
September 15, 2026 at 1:32 AM
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
We will post a paper in the next month that will really change your priors on what you can do with public data.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
September 15, 2026 at 1:57 AM
We will post a paper in the next month that will really change your priors on what you can do with public data.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
September 15, 2026 at 1:32 AM
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures:
1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing,
1/
1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing,
1/
August 24, 2026 at 12:59 AM
Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures:
1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing,
1/
1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing,
1/
I don't usually post music videos but ... I just discovered this Olivia Rodrigo cover of Stick Season recently and just honestly love it so much.
(We went to see Noah Kahan last month, and will go see OR in October, so this is very popular in the family.) www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
(We went to see Noah Kahan last month, and will go see OR in October, so this is very popular in the family.) www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
Olivia Rodrigo - Stick Season (Noah Kahan cover) in the Live Lounge
YouTube video by BBCRadio1VEVO
www.youtube.com
August 21, 2026 at 12:30 AM
I don't usually post music videos but ... I just discovered this Olivia Rodrigo cover of Stick Season recently and just honestly love it so much.
(We went to see Noah Kahan last month, and will go see OR in October, so this is very popular in the family.) www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
(We went to see Noah Kahan last month, and will go see OR in October, so this is very popular in the family.) www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
The hit piece on Acemoglu in The Economist will largely serve, against the seeming intent of the piece, to a downward updating of priors on the magazine, and the named sources it cites.
August 19, 2026 at 11:20 PM
The hit piece on Acemoglu in The Economist will largely serve, against the seeming intent of the piece, to a downward updating of priors on the magazine, and the named sources it cites.
Very proud of this piece (forthcoming in JEL). It took years to write and edit. But happy of the final outcome, and even happier to see how the literature grew even as we were reviewing it!
Providing a guide on imperfect competition in labor markets, focusing on the firm-specific labor supply elasticity as the definition of a firm’s labor market power, from Sydnee Caldwell, Arindrajit Dube, and Suresh Naidu www.nber.org/papers/w35608
August 19, 2026 at 11:13 PM
Very proud of this piece (forthcoming in JEL). It took years to write and edit. But happy of the final outcome, and even happier to see how the literature grew even as we were reviewing it!
One of the best things progressive Dems can do in swing states is to point out that they are particularly well-poised to deliver what Donald Trump once promised: to stop endless wars.
August 19, 2026 at 10:37 PM
One of the best things progressive Dems can do in swing states is to point out that they are particularly well-poised to deliver what Donald Trump once promised: to stop endless wars.
Not posting too much these days, but want to let you know that I'm excited about a research product we'll release soon - how to use publicly available data to learn about things we thought was only possible using restricted use data.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
August 18, 2026 at 9:41 PM
Not posting too much these days, but want to let you know that I'm excited about a research product we'll release soon - how to use publicly available data to learn about things we thought was only possible using restricted use data.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
Reposted by Arin Dube
Reminder that this is today at 3pm eastern. Come listen to the discussion about @arindube.bsky.social 's new book, The Wage Standard.
Roosevelt Book Club! This Thursday my colleague Patrick Oakford interviews economist @arindube.bsky.social about his new book, "The Wage Standard." If you have any interest in labor markets and labor economics, you can't miss this.
events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
RI Book Club: The Wage Standard
events.zoom.us
August 6, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Reminder that this is today at 3pm eastern. Come listen to the discussion about @arindube.bsky.social 's new book, The Wage Standard.
Reposted by Arin Dube
A reminder that, norms withstanding, here in America the boss can fire you for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all.
Unless you have a union contract with protections.
Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
Unless you have a union contract with protections.
Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
August 6, 2026 at 1:42 AM
A reminder that, norms withstanding, here in America the boss can fire you for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all.
Unless you have a union contract with protections.
Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
Unless you have a union contract with protections.
Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
Sanjay is a friend, coauthor.
He was the only Econ faculty member laid off, in a largely heterodox dept, after years of publicly criticizing the administration's finances.
A bad look for the New School. Tenure exists precisely to allow this kind of criticism. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/n...
He was the only Econ faculty member laid off, in a largely heterodox dept, after years of publicly criticizing the administration's finances.
A bad look for the New School. Tenure exists precisely to allow this kind of criticism. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/n...
He Had Tenure. The New School Laid Him Off Anyway. (Gift Article)
The professor, a longtime critic of the university, was among 19 educators who lost their positions as the institution navigated financial woes.
www.nytimes.com
August 5, 2026 at 11:02 PM
Sanjay is a friend, coauthor.
He was the only Econ faculty member laid off, in a largely heterodox dept, after years of publicly criticizing the administration's finances.
A bad look for the New School. Tenure exists precisely to allow this kind of criticism. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/n...
He was the only Econ faculty member laid off, in a largely heterodox dept, after years of publicly criticizing the administration's finances.
A bad look for the New School. Tenure exists precisely to allow this kind of criticism. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/n...
Reposted by Arin Dube
For decades, productivity has risen while wage growth for most workers has lagged behind.
Join us tomorrow at 3 PM ET for a conversation with @arindube.bsky.social on The Wage Standard, his new book on how we got here and how we can reset the labor market in workers' favor.
⬇️ Register below!
Join us tomorrow at 3 PM ET for a conversation with @arindube.bsky.social on The Wage Standard, his new book on how we got here and how we can reset the labor market in workers' favor.
⬇️ Register below!
Roosevelt Institute Book Club presents: The Wage Standard by Arindrajit Dube
Join us on August 6th in conversation with Arindrajit Dube to learn how corporations have set this “wage standard” and what it will take to reset the labor market toward a new, worker-focused one.
rooseveltinstitute.org
August 5, 2026 at 4:58 PM
For decades, productivity has risen while wage growth for most workers has lagged behind.
Join us tomorrow at 3 PM ET for a conversation with @arindube.bsky.social on The Wage Standard, his new book on how we got here and how we can reset the labor market in workers' favor.
⬇️ Register below!
Join us tomorrow at 3 PM ET for a conversation with @arindube.bsky.social on The Wage Standard, his new book on how we got here and how we can reset the labor market in workers' favor.
⬇️ Register below!
There's no bad weather, just bad gear"
Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
August 5, 2026 at 12:52 AM
There's no bad weather, just bad gear"
Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
Reposted by Arin Dube
Very useful suggestions for economists verifying that AI-generated code correctly implements the design, so we can focus on the harder, less-automatable question: does the design actually identify the effect being claimed?
Maybe not a popular post for here, but this is my assessment. In economics research, there are some easy ways to get a decent amount of verification of accuracy for AI generated code or algebra.
1/
1/
August 5, 2026 at 12:27 AM
Very useful suggestions for economists verifying that AI-generated code correctly implements the design, so we can focus on the harder, less-automatable question: does the design actually identify the effect being claimed?
Reposted by Arin Dube
Roosevelt Book Club! This Thursday my colleague Patrick Oakford interviews economist @arindube.bsky.social about his new book, "The Wage Standard." If you have any interest in labor markets and labor economics, you can't miss this.
events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
RI Book Club: The Wage Standard
events.zoom.us
August 4, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Roosevelt Book Club! This Thursday my colleague Patrick Oakford interviews economist @arindube.bsky.social about his new book, "The Wage Standard." If you have any interest in labor markets and labor economics, you can't miss this.
events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
Maybe not a popular post for here, but this is my assessment. In economics research, there are some easy ways to get a decent amount of verification of accuracy for AI generated code or algebra.
1/
1/
August 4, 2026 at 1:42 AM
Maybe not a popular post for here, but this is my assessment. In economics research, there are some easy ways to get a decent amount of verification of accuracy for AI generated code or algebra.
1/
1/
Reposted by Arin Dube
This is dense and pretty cool and I particularly like it because it confirms my priors that paying people a living wage is good public policy.
We've been running an unprecedented natural experiment running for a decade and half. 30 states have raised their minimum wages. 20 have not.
What happened to pay? What happened to jobs? The good news is that it's pretty easy to figure out now.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
What happened to pay? What happened to jobs? The good news is that it's pretty easy to figure out now.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade
When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs?
substack.com
July 31, 2026 at 5:19 PM
This is dense and pretty cool and I particularly like it because it confirms my priors that paying people a living wage is good public policy.
Reposted by Arin Dube
The evidence from the US, where over more than a decade some states have raised the minimum wage while others have not, is clear.
- Statutory MW hikes are effective in raising the wages of the low paid.
- No substantial job losses.
- Adjustment via higher productivity, prices &/or lower profits
- Statutory MW hikes are effective in raising the wages of the low paid.
- No substantial job losses.
- Adjustment via higher productivity, prices &/or lower profits
We've been running an unprecedented natural experiment running for a decade and half. 30 states have raised their minimum wages. 20 have not.
What happened to pay? What happened to jobs? The good news is that it's pretty easy to figure out now.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
What happened to pay? What happened to jobs? The good news is that it's pretty easy to figure out now.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade
When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs?
substack.com
July 31, 2026 at 4:20 AM
The evidence from the US, where over more than a decade some states have raised the minimum wage while others have not, is clear.
- Statutory MW hikes are effective in raising the wages of the low paid.
- No substantial job losses.
- Adjustment via higher productivity, prices &/or lower profits
- Statutory MW hikes are effective in raising the wages of the low paid.
- No substantial job losses.
- Adjustment via higher productivity, prices &/or lower profits
Last night in Costa Brava. I'll miss this view...
July 29, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Last night in Costa Brava. I'll miss this view...