Ben Raue
@benraue.com
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere.
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
The AEC has published the official numbers to be used for the federal redistribution of Queensland, so I've analysed which parts of the state are under quota or over quota.
Suggestions can now be made, with a deadline of October 16.
Suggestions can now be made, with a deadline of October 16.
Population figures published for QLD federal redistribution
The Australian Electoral Commission has officially opened the first round of submissions for the federal redistribution of Queensland. The state will maintain thirty electorates, but the current bo…
www.tallyroom.com.au
September 16, 2026 at 2:33 AM
The AEC has published the official numbers to be used for the federal redistribution of Queensland, so I've analysed which parts of the state are under quota or over quota.
Suggestions can now be made, with a deadline of October 16.
Suggestions can now be made, with a deadline of October 16.
Reposted by Ben Raue
A statistic that haunts me because it is 100% true and shocking and useless in advocacy precisely because it is true and shocking:
Policy that enables a 1-car lifestyle rather than 2 is equivalent to giving a family a $25,000 annual pay raise.
Policy that enables a 1-car lifestyle rather than 2 is equivalent to giving a family a $25,000 annual pay raise.
This story buries the lede, but if you pull out a calculator and do the math, AAA found that the average American spends $15,031 a year for a single car!
www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/c...
www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/c...
Car ownership costs an average of $5,851 a year on top of auto loan payments, analysis finds
The cost of insurance, gas, and maintenance or repairs can add thousands of dollars a year to the price of owning a car.
www.cnbc.com
September 14, 2026 at 7:26 PM
A statistic that haunts me because it is 100% true and shocking and useless in advocacy precisely because it is true and shocking:
Policy that enables a 1-car lifestyle rather than 2 is equivalent to giving a family a $25,000 annual pay raise.
Policy that enables a 1-car lifestyle rather than 2 is equivalent to giving a family a $25,000 annual pay raise.
Polls have closed for the by-election for the NT Assembly seat of Mulka. I am not properly liveblogging this result, but I might post briefly here. It is a very remote electorate where I expect a lot of votes to be cast at mobile booths, but there is one election day booth and two pre-poll booths.
September 12, 2026 at 8:52 AM
Polls have closed for the by-election for the NT Assembly seat of Mulka. I am not properly liveblogging this result, but I might post briefly here. It is a very remote electorate where I expect a lot of votes to be cast at mobile booths, but there is one election day booth and two pre-poll booths.
After Victoria recently abolished group voting tickets (GVTs) for the state upper house, they are now doing the same for the City of Melbourne, the last public office to use the system. A good result!
The final blow to group voting tickets
A piece of legislation passed Victoria’s upper house last night that seems set to abolish the last use of group voting tickets for public office in Australia. Legislation making changes to lo…
www.tallyroom.com.au
September 10, 2026 at 10:59 PM
After Victoria recently abolished group voting tickets (GVTs) for the state upper house, they are now doing the same for the City of Melbourne, the last public office to use the system. A good result!
Can anyone point me to the list of the 21 double dissolution triggers used by Fraser in 1975?
September 7, 2026 at 6:40 AM
Can anyone point me to the list of the 21 double dissolution triggers used by Fraser in 1975?
I'll be following the results of the Secret Harbour by-election tonight, here: www.tallyroom.com.au/66265
Secret Harbour by-election results live
6:00pm WA time – Polls have just closed in the by-election for the WA state seat of Secret Harbour. I will be covering results tonight, although I don’t plan on doing much in the next h…
www.tallyroom.com.au
August 29, 2026 at 10:11 AM
I'll be following the results of the Secret Harbour by-election tonight, here: www.tallyroom.com.au/66265
Today's blog post analyses the list of candidates who have announced so far for the Victorian state election. Labor and Greens are close to a full ticket, as are the Coalition. Interestingly the Victorian Socialists have already nominated over 60 candidates. www.tallyroom.com.au/66259
Candidate numbers piling up in Victoria
We’re just about three months out from the Victorian election. The list of announced candidates for the election has been growing, and it is quite interesting to look at the field of candidat…
www.tallyroom.com.au
August 24, 2026 at 1:43 AM
Today's blog post analyses the list of candidates who have announced so far for the Victorian state election. Labor and Greens are close to a full ticket, as are the Coalition. Interestingly the Victorian Socialists have already nominated over 60 candidates. www.tallyroom.com.au/66259
I'm excited to announce that my Queensland state election guide is now live. That election is a while away, in October 2028, but with the redistribution finalised I have now been able to put up the guide. www.tallyroom.com.au/66247
Queensland election guide published
With the redistribution of Queensland’s state electorates now finalised, I have completed my guide to the 2028 Queensland state election. While this election is still some way off, it should …
www.tallyroom.com.au
August 20, 2026 at 11:35 PM
I'm excited to announce that my Queensland state election guide is now live. That election is a while away, in October 2028, but with the redistribution finalised I have now been able to put up the guide. www.tallyroom.com.au/66247
The proposal to rename the federal seat of Franklin to "Tongerlongeter" has been dropped - the seat will remain Franklin for this redistribution cycle.
August 10, 2026 at 5:04 AM
The proposal to rename the federal seat of Franklin to "Tongerlongeter" has been dropped - the seat will remain Franklin for this redistribution cycle.
New Zealand needs a more vigorous public campaign to defend PR where it exists (as does Australia)
In more electoral news, Hamilton City Council voted yesterday to change from STV to FPP. No consultation, some councillors kept in the dark until the motion was put up. Only 6 years since a public consultation when 78% supported STV. Outrageous move by the 9 councillors who voted this through #nzpol
August 7, 2026 at 5:23 AM
New Zealand needs a more vigorous public campaign to defend PR where it exists (as does Australia)
Reposted by Ben Raue
Australia’s eSafety commissioner buried a report (released Friday afternoon) that shows the under 16 social media ban didn’t tangibly reduce teen social media use, and also resulted in parents tuning out of kids usage.
We traded our privacy for no reason.
theconversation.com/more-than-80...
We traded our privacy for no reason.
theconversation.com/more-than-80...
More than 80% of kids still using social media despite ban, new eSafety report finds
The report provides more evidence Australia’s world-leading social media ban isn’t going to plan.
theconversation.com
August 3, 2026 at 7:10 AM
Australia’s eSafety commissioner buried a report (released Friday afternoon) that shows the under 16 social media ban didn’t tangibly reduce teen social media use, and also resulted in parents tuning out of kids usage.
We traded our privacy for no reason.
theconversation.com/more-than-80...
We traded our privacy for no reason.
theconversation.com/more-than-80...
Reposted by Ben Raue
Apple charges people ~20% more than the Patreon list price and they keep the difference for themselves. They also hold the proceeds of iOS app sales for 75 days, making it impossible for creators to accurately predict earnings. They basically inserted themselves in order to rip *more* people off
Any of you using the ios version of Patreon to support me, switch to the browser version instead, cuz the apple fees have actually taken over 3000 usd from me in the course of a year
I'm begging you not to use apple products. This shit is devastating to creators like me
July 31, 2026 at 6:56 AM
Apple charges people ~20% more than the Patreon list price and they keep the difference for themselves. They also hold the proceeds of iOS app sales for 75 days, making it impossible for creators to accurately predict earnings. They basically inserted themselves in order to rip *more* people off
It's not surprising that with so many more Australians to choose compared to Irish players that Australia is winning comfortably, but I think Ireland could do quite respectably in some kind of State of Origin competition against the big 3 AFL states.
August 1, 2026 at 7:46 AM
It's not surprising that with so many more Australians to choose compared to Irish players that Australia is winning comfortably, but I think Ireland could do quite respectably in some kind of State of Origin competition against the big 3 AFL states.
We have 2 adult tickets and 1 child’s ticket for the AFLW Australia-Ireland game and we can’t go, if anyone wants them.
July 31, 2026 at 11:43 PM
We have 2 adult tickets and 1 child’s ticket for the AFLW Australia-Ireland game and we can’t go, if anyone wants them.
Reposted by Ben Raue
Book returned to NSW library 150 years after being borrowed
Library book returned after 150 years, $28k fine waived
A NSW library has a book returned rather late, but the policy of fining people for the offence was dropped at some point during the century-and-a-half years since it was borrowed.
www.abc.net.au
July 29, 2026 at 11:09 PM
Book returned to NSW library 150 years after being borrowed
Today's blog post grapples with understanding how many seats we'd expect One Nation to win in Victoria for a given share of the vote. www.tallyroom.com.au/65163
How might votes turn into seats in Victoria?
It is always a challenge to understand how a given share of the vote for a political party translates into a certain number of seats under the single-member electorate system used in most Australia…
www.tallyroom.com.au
July 27, 2026 at 1:16 AM
Today's blog post grapples with understanding how many seats we'd expect One Nation to win in Victoria for a given share of the vote. www.tallyroom.com.au/65163
I have watched this team roll over Brisbane and Geelong at home, what is wrong with them...
July 19, 2026 at 9:00 AM
I have watched this team roll over Brisbane and Geelong at home, what is wrong with them...
Reposted by Ben Raue
I oppose changing Franklin to Tongerlongeter only because it would mean the fun fact that I think @benraue.com pointed out a few years ago that Tasmania's electorates, despite several renaming, had never changed alphabetical order, would become false!
...
#politas
...
#politas
July 15, 2026 at 8:16 AM
I oppose changing Franklin to Tongerlongeter only because it would mean the fun fact that I think @benraue.com pointed out a few years ago that Tasmania's electorates, despite several renaming, had never changed alphabetical order, would become false!
...
#politas
...
#politas
The final Tasmanian redistribution has been published.
The boundaries in southern Tasmania have been confirmed, although they have changed the boundary between Bass and Lyons - Bass will not gain two suburbs near Launceston, but instead gain Break O Day LGA.
www.tallyroom.com.au/65134
The boundaries in southern Tasmania have been confirmed, although they have changed the boundary between Bass and Lyons - Bass will not gain two suburbs near Launceston, but instead gain Break O Day LGA.
www.tallyroom.com.au/65134
Tasmanian redistribution finalised – live
10:24 – The Australian Electoral Commission has just announced the final Tasmanian federal boundaries, although there will be further consultation on a new name. The draft version of this red…
www.tallyroom.com.au
July 15, 2026 at 12:26 AM
The final Tasmanian redistribution has been published.
The boundaries in southern Tasmania have been confirmed, although they have changed the boundary between Bass and Lyons - Bass will not gain two suburbs near Launceston, but instead gain Break O Day LGA.
www.tallyroom.com.au/65134
The boundaries in southern Tasmania have been confirmed, although they have changed the boundary between Bass and Lyons - Bass will not gain two suburbs near Launceston, but instead gain Break O Day LGA.
www.tallyroom.com.au/65134
Reposted by Ben Raue
It's a great point, and of course the same can be said of today's game. If Spain wins, it'll put real fire behind the demand for Roussillon, Artois and the northern Cerdanya in the unwinding of the 1659 Treaty of the Pyrenees. If France wins, that should put the lid on it - for now!
July 14, 2026 at 2:26 PM
It's a great point, and of course the same can be said of today's game. If Spain wins, it'll put real fire behind the demand for Roussillon, Artois and the northern Cerdanya in the unwinding of the 1659 Treaty of the Pyrenees. If France wins, that should put the lid on it - for now!
Reposted by Ben Raue
On @thepointau.bsky.social , @benraue.com warns "democracy isn't an optional extra" as local council tries to leave a position vacant for more than two years.
Rule change to use countbacks more often could resolve future vacancies. thepoint.com.au/opinions/dem...
Rule change to use countbacks more often could resolve future vacancies. thepoint.com.au/opinions/dem...
Democracy isn’t an optional extra
My attention has been drawn to a story from Kiama Council in southern New South Wales, where the council has attempted to avoid filling a vacancy on the council with more than two years left on the co...
thepoint.com.au
July 13, 2026 at 12:53 AM
On @thepointau.bsky.social , @benraue.com warns "democracy isn't an optional extra" as local council tries to leave a position vacant for more than two years.
Rule change to use countbacks more often could resolve future vacancies. thepoint.com.au/opinions/dem...
Rule change to use countbacks more often could resolve future vacancies. thepoint.com.au/opinions/dem...
Reposted by Ben Raue
If Argentina win you can all learn about a little known missed call from Argentina and England’s history. At the time it was called “the hand of god” but nobody really remembers it anymore because in the pre-VAR era the beauty of a fluid game without stoppages meant fans didn’t dwell on blown calls.
July 12, 2026 at 3:17 AM
If Argentina win you can all learn about a little known missed call from Argentina and England’s history. At the time it was called “the hand of god” but nobody really remembers it anymore because in the pre-VAR era the beauty of a fluid game without stoppages meant fans didn’t dwell on blown calls.