Bill Barnwell
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Bill Barnwell
@billbarnwell.com
170K followers 190 following 2.6K posts
ESPN writer/yapper
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billbarnwell.com
In preparation for the 24-team playoff this week all top 24 teams have elected to lose
October 17, 2026 at 11:03 PM
billbarnwell.com
Could Napoleon have conquered Italy if Paolo Maldini was present, asks a YouTube video
October 17, 2026 at 3:03 PM
billbarnwell.com
I won't spoil but if you want to see YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING spoiler-free you've got like two days before the spoiler is just something everyone knows
October 16, 2026 at 6:14 PM
billbarnwell.com
These two quarterbacks under pressure tonight: 4-for-20, 7 sacks, minus-18 net yards
October 16, 2026 at 3:04 AM
billbarnwell.com
The Seahawks have a 42-yard completion and are still averaging four yards per dropback with that included
October 16, 2026 at 2:19 AM
billbarnwell.com
Bo Nix is really an artist who shows us new, previously undiscovered ways to narrowly avoid intentional grounding penalties
October 16, 2026 at 1:54 AM
billbarnwell.com
Sam Darnold's sack rate up over 10 percent after that opening drive. Almost double where it was last year (5.36 percent)
October 16, 2026 at 12:25 AM
billbarnwell.com
New podcast: Breaking down pleasant surprises from the start of the season with @acosta32jp.bsky.social youtu.be/zJH1wNx82IM
Is Parker Washington a Top 10 WR in the NFL? Is Kenneth Walker the MVP? | The Bill Barnwell Show
YouTube video by NFL on ESPN
youtu.be
October 15, 2026 at 7:30 PM
billbarnwell.com
New column: Players and coaches who are on the hotseat www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
15 NFL players, coaches on the hot seat entering Week 6: Quinn, McDaniel, others
What now for Mike McDaniel? Should the Commanders or Eagles consider coaching changes? Could Jacoby Brissett or Brian Thomas Jr. get traded?
www.espn.com
October 15, 2026 at 2:21 PM
billbarnwell.com
A lot of Bijan Robinsons fit in that hole
A hole that could hold umpteen Bijan Robinsons is carved out by the Falcons OL
October 15, 2026 at 2:06 AM
Reposted by Bill Barnwell
sethwalder.bsky.social
Before the season, I made bold predictions for all 32 teams.

Five weeks in, I'm checking in on those predictions to see which are on track, which still have a chance, and which already need to be thrown out.

www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Revisiting 2026 preseason bold predictions for 32 NFL teams: Which are on track?
In the preseason, we made bold predictions for every NFL team, from Jordan Love's MVP case to Isaiah Likely's catch total. Which ones are on track? Which seem unlikely?
www.espn.com
October 14, 2026 at 2:05 PM
billbarnwell.com
Kyren Williams hit this LB with the Arn Anderson spinebuster
October 14, 2026 at 3:32 AM
Reposted by Bill Barnwell
billbarnwell.com
I took a deep look into Marvin Harrison's profile. He hasn't been getting much separation, hasn't hit high-end speed, and isn't winning on contested catches very often. He needs to be a different player altogether in Houston. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
During his time with the Cardinals, Harrison ranked last in the NFL among all wide receivers (with 50 targets or more over the past three years) in separation, averaging just 2.1 yards of separation when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Great receivers -- even ones that get plenty of attention from opposing defenses -- are typically able to create more space for themselves. The likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson average over 3 yards of separation on their routes. In Arizona, McBride averaged 3.3 yards of separation on his targets during that time, while Wilson was at 2.5 yards. In part because of those separation issues, Harrison didn't have a lot of chances to bring in easy targets. His expected catch rate over the past three years, using the Next Gen Stats model, was only 53.7%. That's fifth-lowest among wide receivers since the start of 2024. I'll get to the four below him in a minute. By those expectations, the good news is that Harrison has roughly delivered about what the model would project given that low expected catch rate. He has caught 53.5% of his passes so far as a pro, almost exactly in line with the model's prediction. He has generated a total of 34 receiving yards over expectation across his 202 targets, which is also essentially a match for what the model suggests. You could make a case that Harrison has done an average job with below-average opportunities and hope that his expected catch rate will rise in Houston. But my concern is that Harrison is not separating because he hasn't been explosive enough. The four other wideouts with lower expected catch rates are Alec Pierce, Tyquan Thornton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Christian Watson. Those are all deep threats who primarily make their money with their speed and ability to get open downfield. While they're going to draw targets that don't have great chances of being caught, the huge gains those receivers provide when they do bring in the football make up for the low catch rates. Next Gen Stats also tracks speed, and given their route trees and athleticism, those guys unsurprisingly spike. Pierce hits at least 18 mph on 17.6% of his routes. Thornton's at 18%, while Watson gets there just under 20% of the time. Valdes-Scantling isn't on their level, but he's also in his 30s. Harrison tops 18 mph on just 3.1% of his routes, which is both far below those players and way below the league average for qualifying wide receivers (6.5%). He has topped 20 mph on routes just four times as a pro, a shockingly low number for a player who topped 22 mph at the college level. Max speeds can be a product of the routes each receiver is called upon to run, but Harrison has been in the NFL long enough to run the full route tree. If you try drilling down on the subset of players who both don't create a lot of separation (2.5 yards or less) and don't hit top speeds very often (getting over 18 mph on less than 4% of their routes), it's not a very promising group. There's Harrison and eight other players, most of whom aren't impactful NFL starters at this point of their careers. That list includes Keon Coleman, Gabe Davis, (very late-era) DeAndre Hopkins, David Moore and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Jauan Jennings is a better version of that player, but he also provides significant value as a blocker and after the catch. The two exceptions are a pair of contested-catch stars in A.J. Brown and Mike Evans, players who create explosives for themselves by physically dominating defensive backs and create space by threatening those big plays and working back to the quarterback. That's the way Harrison probably has to succeed given his play style. Those two are just much better at it than Harrison has been. Brown catches more than 54% of the tight- and neutral-window throws (3 yards of separation or less) in his direction that travel more than 10 yards in the air, the fourth-best rate in the league. Evans is at 49%. Harrison's at 40.2%, which is below the league average of 42%. And while quarterback effects could factor in there, both McBride (42.4%) and Wilson (45.7%) caught a higher percentage of downfield throws into tight or neutral windows than Harrison, all while getting open far more often in other situations.
October 12, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Reposted by Bill Barnwell
tednguyen.bsky.social
The Packers exposed a weakness in the Bears defense for huge plays
October 13, 2026 at 2:38 PM
billbarnwell.com
He has the highest fumbles per touch rate of any full-time starting RB in the league since the start of 2025, too.
archieboots.bsky.social Archie Boots @archieboots.bsky.social · 4d
In 2024 he’s credited with 1 and lost 0. His fumbles per touch aren’t materially different and most of the ones that have been punched out have been good technique but great defensive punches.
October 13, 2026 at 4:05 AM
Reposted by Bill Barnwell
sheilkapadia.bsky.social
Rams special teams came into Week 5 ranked 32nd in DVOA.

They've been 26th or worse in four of the last five seasons.

Maybe the one thing McVay can't figure out, and it continues to cost them games.
October 13, 2026 at 3:50 AM
billbarnwell.com
I mean....
jake0-0procino.bsky.social Jake Procino 👾 @jake0-0procino.bsky.social · 4d
James cook 🤝 McVay
amazing but one
serious fatal flaw
October 13, 2026 at 3:50 AM
billbarnwell.com
Commanders should have just run over the referee to stop the clock apparently
October 13, 2026 at 3:46 AM
billbarnwell.com
Sean McVay is so incredible at so many things and then there's that thing
October 13, 2026 at 3:43 AM
billbarnwell.com
That's *11* fumbles for James Cook since the start of 2025.
October 13, 2026 at 3:31 AM
billbarnwell.com
Allen hitting the turbo button and just immediately bursting past Landman so quickly that he couldn't even attempt a tackle
October 13, 2026 at 3:05 AM
billbarnwell.com
Pretty enticing run look for the Rams on that two-point try if Stafford wanted to try and check into one there.
October 13, 2026 at 2:42 AM
billbarnwell.com
That's a pretty wild design and it got Nacua open
October 13, 2026 at 1:38 AM
billbarnwell.com
Justin Herbert ranking last in Total QBR through five games Chargers passing game specialist Adam Gase
October 13, 2026 at 12:44 AM
billbarnwell.com
I took a deep look into Marvin Harrison's profile. He hasn't been getting much separation, hasn't hit high-end speed, and isn't winning on contested catches very often. He needs to be a different player altogether in Houston. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
During his time with the Cardinals, Harrison ranked last in the NFL among all wide receivers (with 50 targets or more over the past three years) in separation, averaging just 2.1 yards of separation when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Great receivers -- even ones that get plenty of attention from opposing defenses -- are typically able to create more space for themselves. The likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson average over 3 yards of separation on their routes. In Arizona, McBride averaged 3.3 yards of separation on his targets during that time, while Wilson was at 2.5 yards. In part because of those separation issues, Harrison didn't have a lot of chances to bring in easy targets. His expected catch rate over the past three years, using the Next Gen Stats model, was only 53.7%. That's fifth-lowest among wide receivers since the start of 2024. I'll get to the four below him in a minute. By those expectations, the good news is that Harrison has roughly delivered about what the model would project given that low expected catch rate. He has caught 53.5% of his passes so far as a pro, almost exactly in line with the model's prediction. He has generated a total of 34 receiving yards over expectation across his 202 targets, which is also essentially a match for what the model suggests. You could make a case that Harrison has done an average job with below-average opportunities and hope that his expected catch rate will rise in Houston. But my concern is that Harrison is not separating because he hasn't been explosive enough. The four other wideouts with lower expected catch rates are Alec Pierce, Tyquan Thornton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Christian Watson. Those are all deep threats who primarily make their money with their speed and ability to get open downfield. While they're going to draw targets that don't have great chances of being caught, the huge gains those receivers provide when they do bring in the football make up for the low catch rates. Next Gen Stats also tracks speed, and given their route trees and athleticism, those guys unsurprisingly spike. Pierce hits at least 18 mph on 17.6% of his routes. Thornton's at 18%, while Watson gets there just under 20% of the time. Valdes-Scantling isn't on their level, but he's also in his 30s. Harrison tops 18 mph on just 3.1% of his routes, which is both far below those players and way below the league average for qualifying wide receivers (6.5%). He has topped 20 mph on routes just four times as a pro, a shockingly low number for a player who topped 22 mph at the college level. Max speeds can be a product of the routes each receiver is called upon to run, but Harrison has been in the NFL long enough to run the full route tree. If you try drilling down on the subset of players who both don't create a lot of separation (2.5 yards or less) and don't hit top speeds very often (getting over 18 mph on less than 4% of their routes), it's not a very promising group. There's Harrison and eight other players, most of whom aren't impactful NFL starters at this point of their careers. That list includes Keon Coleman, Gabe Davis, (very late-era) DeAndre Hopkins, David Moore and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Jauan Jennings is a better version of that player, but he also provides significant value as a blocker and after the catch. The two exceptions are a pair of contested-catch stars in A.J. Brown and Mike Evans, players who create explosives for themselves by physically dominating defensive backs and create space by threatening those big plays and working back to the quarterback. That's the way Harrison probably has to succeed given his play style. Those two are just much better at it than Harrison has been. Brown catches more than 54% of the tight- and neutral-window throws (3 yards of separation or less) in his direction that travel more than 10 yards in the air, the fourth-best rate in the league. Evans is at 49%. Harrison's at 40.2%, which is below the league average of 42%. And while quarterback effects could factor in there, both McBride (42.4%) and Wilson (45.7%) caught a higher percentage of downfield throws into tight or neutral windows than Harrison, all while getting open far more often in other situations.
October 12, 2026 at 2:49 PM