Boz
@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social
Founder of Hxagon. Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Weekly Columnist at World Politics Review. SuperForecaster at GJI. Probably a few other things too. Mostly writing about Latin America.
Reposted by Boz
A very strong El Niño could hit Latin America by winter, and many of the governments in its path are already struggling with low approval ratings.
While no president controls the rain, every president will own the consequences, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
While no president controls the rain, every president will own the consequences, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
El Niño Will Bring More Than Just Bad Weather to Latin America
Past El Niño events triggered blackouts, droughts and migration. A new one will test already fragile political systems across Latin America.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
June 23, 2026 at 12:00 AM
A very strong El Niño could hit Latin America by winter, and many of the governments in its path are already struggling with low approval ratings.
While no president controls the rain, every president will own the consequences, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
While no president controls the rain, every president will own the consequences, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
Reposted by Boz
In Venezuela, Mexico and beyond, the Trump administration is selecting which laws to enforce and which to ignore, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
Trump’s Latin America Policy Is Based on Shredding the Rule of Law
In Venezuela, Mexico and beyond, the Trump administration is selecting which laws to enforce and which to ignore.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
June 1, 2026 at 5:00 PM
In Venezuela, Mexico and beyond, the Trump administration is selecting which laws to enforce and which to ignore, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
Reposted by Boz
Bolivia’s reformist president came to power hoping to fix the economic crisis he inherited. But his reforms have triggered a new political crisis, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
A New Wave of Protests Puts Bolivia’s Paz on Thin Ice
The reformist president came to power hoping to fix the economic crisis he inherited. But his reforms have triggered a new political crisis.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
May 19, 2026 at 7:02 PM
Bolivia’s reformist president came to power hoping to fix the economic crisis he inherited. But his reforms have triggered a new political crisis, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
I taped an episode of Odd Lots at the Bloomberg studio in NYC. We discussed the Orange Shift idea that many countries are turning toward Trump and how leaders like Sheinbaum, Lula, Milei, and Bukele are all consequential in their own way. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
James Bosworth on the ‘Orange Wave’ Happening Across Latin America
From Delcy to Milei.
www.bloomberg.com
April 24, 2026 at 11:02 AM
I taped an episode of Odd Lots at the Bloomberg studio in NYC. We discussed the Orange Shift idea that many countries are turning toward Trump and how leaders like Sheinbaum, Lula, Milei, and Bukele are all consequential in their own way. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Boz
Internationally, Milei remains a superstar who has delivered an economic miracle.
Domestically, his government is in real trouble, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes in his latest column.
Domestically, his government is in real trouble, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes in his latest column.
Milei’s Inflation Success Story Could Be Argentina’s Undoing
Argentina’s economic situation is a constant litmus test for Milei’s reelection bid, making it both a self-fulfilling and self-defeating prophecy.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
April 20, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Internationally, Milei remains a superstar who has delivered an economic miracle.
Domestically, his government is in real trouble, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes in his latest column.
Domestically, his government is in real trouble, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes in his latest column.
Reposted by Boz
Panama is caught between two major powers that both see the canal as a strategic asset worth fighting over, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes in his latest column for WPR.
The Panama Canal Crisis Hasn’t Gone Away
While Trump has been focused on the Strait of Hormuz, there are indications that he could soon turn his attention back to Panama.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
April 13, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Panama is caught between two major powers that both see the canal as a strategic asset worth fighting over, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes in his latest column for WPR.
I updated my chart and made a map. boz.substack.com/p/the-orange...
The Orange Drift - How Latin American leaders are responding to Trump
Updating my framework shows more leaders aligning with Trump and no populist opponents remaining.
boz.substack.com
April 7, 2026 at 12:37 PM
I updated my chart and made a map. boz.substack.com/p/the-orange...
I made a map. boz.substack.com/p/what-happe...
What happens to Latin America if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed?
For most countries, it's either bad or worse.
boz.substack.com
March 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM
I made a map. boz.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Reposted by Boz
Less than three weeks into his term, Chile’s new president is already facing protests over fuel prices driven by the Iran war.
As WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, that reflects the extraordinary risks the region faces if the war drags on.
As WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, that reflects the extraordinary risks the region faces if the war drags on.
The Iran War Casts a Pall Over Latin America’s Prospects
The economic and political impact already felt from the Iran war hints at the risks the region faces in the event it lasts much longer.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
March 30, 2026 at 3:12 PM
Less than three weeks into his term, Chile’s new president is already facing protests over fuel prices driven by the Iran war.
As WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, that reflects the extraordinary risks the region faces if the war drags on.
As WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, that reflects the extraordinary risks the region faces if the war drags on.
"even as commentators ask who the next Delcy is in an antagonistic country where regime change is plausible, they should be asking whether Trump’s allies are all becoming more Delcy-like."
boz.substack.com/p/a-delcyfie...
boz.substack.com/p/a-delcyfie...
A Delcyfied US Foreign Policy
A Spanish translation of the headline today: La Delcyficación de la política exterior de los EE.UU.
boz.substack.com
March 24, 2026 at 3:07 PM
"even as commentators ask who the next Delcy is in an antagonistic country where regime change is plausible, they should be asking whether Trump’s allies are all becoming more Delcy-like."
boz.substack.com/p/a-delcyfie...
boz.substack.com/p/a-delcyfie...
Reposted by Boz
Military operations won’t produce real security for Latin America’s citizens if there is no strategy beyond targeting cartel leaders with lethal force, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
The Holes in Trump’s ‘Shield of the Americas’
Military operations won’t produce real security for Latin America if there is no strategy beyond targeting cartel leaders with lethal force.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
March 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Military operations won’t produce real security for Latin America’s citizens if there is no strategy beyond targeting cartel leaders with lethal force, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
Great article, maps, and photos on the new wall construction along the US-Mexico border. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...
A massive border wall expansion is underway
The aggressive pace of expansion has alarmed advocates who say the construction will destroy pristine country, threaten endangered species, and cut off access to sacred Indigenous and archaeological s...
www.washingtonpost.com
March 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM
Great article, maps, and photos on the new wall construction along the US-Mexico border. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...
"The US, somewhat ironically and contradictorily, will become the next “black knight” that helps Cuba evade and survive the economic pressure of US sanctions."
boz.substack.com/p/trump-is-l...
boz.substack.com/p/trump-is-l...
Trump is likely to succeed on his Cuba policy
By the end of the year, it's possible Cuba's government will be more "Delcy-like" than Venezuela's.
boz.substack.com
March 17, 2026 at 2:04 PM
"The US, somewhat ironically and contradictorily, will become the next “black knight” that helps Cuba evade and survive the economic pressure of US sanctions."
boz.substack.com/p/trump-is-l...
boz.substack.com/p/trump-is-l...
Reposted by Boz
The conventional wisdom is that Chile’s outgoing President Gabriel Boric was a failure. But as WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social), that verdict ignores a string of successes he achieved long after being written off as a lame duck.
Chile’s Boric Was Not the Failure He Is Made Out to Be
Boric accomplished a string of policy successes long after he had been declared a lame duck for having lost the constitutional reform process.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
March 9, 2026 at 5:01 PM
The conventional wisdom is that Chile’s outgoing President Gabriel Boric was a failure. But as WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social), that verdict ignores a string of successes he achieved long after being written off as a lame duck.
Reposted by Boz
"For Trump and his team, removing the people running states and criminal groups that threaten the U.S. is decisive, because individual leaders matter more than systems or institutions. It is a 'kingpin strategy' on a global scale."
I wish I'd come up with that, @bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social!
I wish I'd come up with that, @bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social!
U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on the El Mencho Raid Obscures Deeper Divides
Mexico and the U.S. measure the success of any individual mission—as well as the overall campaign against cartels—differently.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
March 3, 2026 at 1:55 PM
"For Trump and his team, removing the people running states and criminal groups that threaten the U.S. is decisive, because individual leaders matter more than systems or institutions. It is a 'kingpin strategy' on a global scale."
I wish I'd come up with that, @bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social!
I wish I'd come up with that, @bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social!
Reposted by Boz
The El Mencho raid was a genuine moment of U.S.-Mexico cooperation. But as WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, the two countries measure the success of any mission—and the broader campaign against cartels—very differently.
U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on the El Mencho Raid Obscures Deeper Divides
Mexico and the U.S. measure the success of any individual mission—as well as the overall campaign against cartels—differently.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
March 2, 2026 at 5:26 PM
The El Mencho raid was a genuine moment of U.S.-Mexico cooperation. But as WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, the two countries measure the success of any mission—and the broader campaign against cartels—very differently.
Can Iran retaliate via its proxies in Latin America? See my column from last June reviewing what is known/speculated, and cautions that perhaps the fact that no successful attack has occurred since 1994 means Iran in LatAm is an overanalyzed paper tiger. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/israel-iran-...
We’ll Soon Find Out If Iran Really Poses a Threat in Latin America
The current conflict between Israel and Iran should put to the test all the threat analyses about Iran’s presence in the Western Hemisphere that have been written over the past several decades.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
February 28, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Can Iran retaliate via its proxies in Latin America? See my column from last June reviewing what is known/speculated, and cautions that perhaps the fact that no successful attack has occurred since 1994 means Iran in LatAm is an overanalyzed paper tiger. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/israel-iran-...
For today's newsletter, I'm writing to two different audiences. First, some simple answers to how I view Mexico's security situation right now. Second, detail on how the CJNG will evolve now that El Mencho has met Santa Muerte. boz.substack.com/p/how-safe-i...
How safe is Mexico? El Mencho is dead; now what? - February 2026
Two different analyses today. Hope you enjoy the both.
boz.substack.com
February 24, 2026 at 3:16 PM
For today's newsletter, I'm writing to two different audiences. First, some simple answers to how I view Mexico's security situation right now. Second, detail on how the CJNG will evolve now that El Mencho has met Santa Muerte. boz.substack.com/p/how-safe-i...
Reposted by Boz
As long as the Chavistas remain in power in Caracas, nothing Trump does will change how U.S. companies view Venezuela, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
Venezuela’s Governance Is What Makes Its Oil Industry ‘Uninvestable’
As long as the Chavistas remain in power in Caracas, nothing Trump does will change how U.S. companies view Venezuela.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM
As long as the Chavistas remain in power in Caracas, nothing Trump does will change how U.S. companies view Venezuela, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
For Presidents' Day in the US, I used AI to build a map showing how old the presidents in the hemisphere are. claude.ai/public/artif...
February 16, 2026 at 3:10 PM
For Presidents' Day in the US, I used AI to build a map showing how old the presidents in the hemisphere are. claude.ai/public/artif...
Reposted by Boz
Just a month into 2026, managing the U.S.-Mexico relationship is proving to be even more challenging than in 2025, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
For Mexico’s Sheinbaum, It’s Getting Harder to Be a ‘Trump Whisperer’
Just a month into 2026, managing the U.S.-Mexico relationship is proving to be even more challenging than in 2025.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
February 9, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Just a month into 2026, managing the U.S.-Mexico relationship is proving to be even more challenging than in 2025, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.
Reposted by Boz
BREAKING: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado says Juan Pablo Guanipa, a former governor and one of her closest allies, was kidnapped hours after being released from prison.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado says a close ally was kidnapped hours after prison release
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado says one of her closest allies has been kidnapped hours after being released from prison.
bit.ly
February 9, 2026 at 5:13 AM
BREAKING: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado says Juan Pablo Guanipa, a former governor and one of her closest allies, was kidnapped hours after being released from prison.
"The mirror images of the first two stages of those plans mean Venezuela doesn’t get to find out whose plan they are following until stage three. In practice, there is no neutral way to ‘wait and see’ which plan wins."
boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
Venezuela - Still choosing between Chaos or Dictatorship
Maduro’s removal changed everything and changed nothing.
boz.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:10 PM
"The mirror images of the first two stages of those plans mean Venezuela doesn’t get to find out whose plan they are following until stage three. In practice, there is no neutral way to ‘wait and see’ which plan wins."
boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
Haiti's presidential transition council has fired the PM despite warnings from essentially everyone in the international community not to do so. They are betting that the world is too distracted to respond to their power grab. apnews.com/article/hait...
Haiti's transitional council deepens political chaos by voting to oust the prime minister
A member of Haiti’s transitional presidential council has announced that a majority of the panel has voted to fire the country’s embattled Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as the country’s politic...
apnews.com
January 24, 2026 at 11:57 AM
Haiti's presidential transition council has fired the PM despite warnings from essentially everyone in the international community not to do so. They are betting that the world is too distracted to respond to their power grab. apnews.com/article/hait...
Peru's Congress considering impeaching President Jose Jeri over unreported meetings with a Chinese businessman seeking an energy project concession. One unreported meeting may just be a mistake. Two is a scandal. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
Peru's president embroiled in scandal over failure to disclose meetings with Chinese businessman
Peruvian President Jose Jeri is facing a preliminary investigation by the country's prosecutor as Congress looks to begin impeachment proceedings, after his recent meetings with a Chinese businessman ...
www.reuters.com
January 20, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Peru's Congress considering impeaching President Jose Jeri over unreported meetings with a Chinese businessman seeking an energy project concession. One unreported meeting may just be a mistake. Two is a scandal. www.reuters.com/world/china/...