Chris Prosser
@caprosser.com
Political scientist | Co-director British Election Study | Election number crunching for ITV | Trustee McDougall Trust
caprosser.com
caprosser.com
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Chris Prosser
@caprosser.com
· Jun 19
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New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social:
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Maybe it's true of other organisations as well but I'm always amazed by how unwilling universities seem to be to do something about people who basically don't do their jobs.
September 4, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Maybe it's true of other organisations as well but I'm always amazed by how unwilling universities seem to be to do something about people who basically don't do their jobs.
Working with some government data of locations *in the UK* that contains two points in the sea to the west of Denmark and three off the east of Somalia.
Feeling good about the cleanliness of my own data 😂
Feeling good about the cleanliness of my own data 😂
August 10, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Working with some government data of locations *in the UK* that contains two points in the sea to the west of Denmark and three off the east of Somalia.
Feeling good about the cleanliness of my own data 😂
Feeling good about the cleanliness of my own data 😂
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Do opinion polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? buff.ly/4zkxUWY
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties?
This time, I’m taking a look at some new evidence about the accuracy of opinion polls.
buff.ly
August 9, 2026 at 7:51 PM
Do opinion polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? buff.ly/4zkxUWY
Reposted by Chris Prosser
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me:
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io
August 5, 2026 at 8:32 AM
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me:
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me:
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io
August 5, 2026 at 8:32 AM
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me:
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family
osf.io/preprints/so...
It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
July 29, 2026 at 9:11 AM
It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
'At this rate I'll beat mummy's record of 15 different PMs by the time I'm 93'
July 20, 2026 at 11:49 AM
'At this rate I'll beat mummy's record of 15 different PMs by the time I'm 93'
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Why did class voting in Britain rise, then decline? @olliheath.bsky.social, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott & @caprosser.com examine elections from 1885-2024, arguing political agency explains class dealignment better than social change. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/klGDUJz
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024 - Oliver Heath, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott, Christopher Prosser, 2026
Understanding when and why social cleavages shape electoral behaviour is a central concern in the study of democratic politics. While many accounts emphasise th...
buff.ly
July 9, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Why did class voting in Britain rise, then decline? @olliheath.bsky.social, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott & @caprosser.com examine elections from 1885-2024, arguing political agency explains class dealignment better than social change. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/klGDUJz
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Today's absolute must-read for anyone studying/interested in British electoral and party politics over the long term.
(Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is indeed a British street despite the classic Citroen in the foreground)!
(Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is indeed a British street despite the classic Citroen in the foreground)!
The class divide in British politics didn’t erode slowly – it collapsed under New Labour
But the shift has more to do with how parties behave than any changes in the class system.
theconversation.com
June 26, 2026 at 8:11 AM
Today's absolute must-read for anyone studying/interested in British electoral and party politics over the long term.
(Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is indeed a British street despite the classic Citroen in the foreground)!
(Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is indeed a British street despite the classic Citroen in the foreground)!
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Why did class voting in Britain rise, then decline? @olliheath.bsky.social, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott & @caprosser.com examine elections from 1885-2024, arguing political agency explains class dealignment better than social change. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/klGDUJz
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
June 24, 2026 at 5:02 PM
Why did class voting in Britain rise, then decline? @olliheath.bsky.social, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott & @caprosser.com examine elections from 1885-2024, arguing political agency explains class dealignment better than social change. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/klGDUJz
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
Reposted by Chris Prosser
New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social:
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
doi.org
June 19, 2026 at 12:21 PM
New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social:
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social:
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
doi.org
June 19, 2026 at 12:21 PM
New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social:
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024
We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Sometimes its hard to escape the feeling that someone in government has built a model of how policies might affect economic growth but accidently flipped the sign on the output.
Scoop: teaching funding for English universities to be cut by another £100 million www.timeshighereducation.com/news/governm... via @helenpacker.bsky.social
Government to cut university teaching grant by £100 million
Coming reduction in funding for high-cost subjects and access programmes ‘extraordinarily frustrating’, says Universities UK leader
www.timeshighereducation.com
June 10, 2026 at 9:29 AM
Sometimes its hard to escape the feeling that someone in government has built a model of how policies might affect economic growth but accidently flipped the sign on the output.
Really delighted to be joining the editorial board of West European Politics - an excellent journal and home to one of my first publications as a grad student and my series of articles on the 2015-24 UK general elections - in excellent company too!
🎉 We are delighted to welcome 16 new members to the West European Politics Editorial Advisory Board!
Joining us are: Marius Busemeyer, @mbusuioc.bsky.social, @hildecoffe.bsky.social, @antoanetadl.bsky.social, @martingross.bsky.social, Elisabeth Ivarsflaten, @wmjunk.bsky.social…
Joining us are: Marius Busemeyer, @mbusuioc.bsky.social, @hildecoffe.bsky.social, @antoanetadl.bsky.social, @martingross.bsky.social, Elisabeth Ivarsflaten, @wmjunk.bsky.social…
May 29, 2026 at 12:48 PM
Really delighted to be joining the editorial board of West European Politics - an excellent journal and home to one of my first publications as a grad student and my series of articles on the 2015-24 UK general elections - in excellent company too!
Miliband was neither especially popular nor unpopular - average feelings towards him during the 2017 election campaign were pretty similar to mid-2017-campaign Corbyn, 2024 Starmer, and 2019 Johnson.
May 14, 2026 at 8:47 AM
Miliband was neither especially popular nor unpopular - average feelings towards him during the 2017 election campaign were pretty similar to mid-2017-campaign Corbyn, 2024 Starmer, and 2019 Johnson.
Reposted by Chris Prosser
We need a democratic big bang, just like the economic one in the 80s: real local politics with autonomy, discretion, and tax-raising powers; proportional representation across the board; an elected upper chamber. All of our other problems are downstream of that. Just grab the bloody nettle.
May 11, 2026 at 9:14 AM
We need a democratic big bang, just like the economic one in the 80s: real local politics with autonomy, discretion, and tax-raising powers; proportional representation across the board; an elected upper chamber. All of our other problems are downstream of that. Just grab the bloody nettle.
The charity I'm a trustee for is looking for new trustees to join our board.
The McDougall Trust is the independent charity that promotes public understanding of electoral democracy.
See the link for more details and how to apply.
www.mcdougall.org.uk/news/39/38/M...
The McDougall Trust is the independent charity that promotes public understanding of electoral democracy.
See the link for more details and how to apply.
www.mcdougall.org.uk/news/39/38/M...
McDougall Trust - News
www.mcdougall.org.uk
April 20, 2026 at 4:46 PM
The charity I'm a trustee for is looking for new trustees to join our board.
The McDougall Trust is the independent charity that promotes public understanding of electoral democracy.
See the link for more details and how to apply.
www.mcdougall.org.uk/news/39/38/M...
The McDougall Trust is the independent charity that promotes public understanding of electoral democracy.
See the link for more details and how to apply.
www.mcdougall.org.uk/news/39/38/M...
Now, I'm no foreign policy genius, but surely the EU suggesting EU students should pay the same fees as home students should not have come as a complete surprise given it was the status quo until six years ago...?
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Row over tuition fees cut for European students threatens Starmer’s EU reset
British negotiators ‘blindsided’ by Brussels’ demand for a reduction that could cost universities £140m a year
www.theguardian.com
March 15, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Now, I'm no foreign policy genius, but surely the EU suggesting EU students should pay the same fees as home students should not have come as a complete surprise given it was the status quo until six years ago...?
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
All of my work will be published in top journals. The only thing prohibiting publication in those journals right now is the reviewers shooting it down. It will be published in those journals should reviewers not do that.
March 13, 2026 at 1:23 PM
All of my work will be published in top journals. The only thing prohibiting publication in those journals right now is the reviewers shooting it down. It will be published in those journals should reviewers not do that.
In the year of our lord, 2026, an academic journal has gone from accepting .tex file submissions, to only accepting word documents...
(Between an original and R&R submission 🤬).
(Between an original and R&R submission 🤬).
March 13, 2026 at 9:23 AM
In the year of our lord, 2026, an academic journal has gone from accepting .tex file submissions, to only accepting word documents...
(Between an original and R&R submission 🤬).
(Between an original and R&R submission 🤬).
This is an interesting provocation, and I think David is right that electoral reformers shouldn't just assume that the only (or best) electoral reform is PR. There are two parts to the argument:
1. Majoritarianism > PR
2. If Majoritarianism, then two round elections
I disagree with both bits.
1. Majoritarianism > PR
2. If Majoritarianism, then two round elections
I disagree with both bits.
I've written for the @uniofbathipr.bsky.social blog about why de-alignment and party system breakdown poses challenges for PR as well as FPTP, and why a French-style two-round electoral system might therefore now be optimal for the UK
Electoral reformers should look beyond proportionality
The UK’s political landscape means the electoral system is increasingly in need of review. Dr David Klemperer, IPR Research Assistant, explains why proportional representation isn’t the only …
blogs.bath.ac.uk
March 10, 2026 at 11:07 AM
This is an interesting provocation, and I think David is right that electoral reformers shouldn't just assume that the only (or best) electoral reform is PR. There are two parts to the argument:
1. Majoritarianism > PR
2. If Majoritarianism, then two round elections
I disagree with both bits.
1. Majoritarianism > PR
2. If Majoritarianism, then two round elections
I disagree with both bits.
Reposted by Chris Prosser
UK Poll of Polls, 14 February 2026
Reform: 29% (27-31%)
Labour: 20% (18-22%)
Conservative: 19% (17-20%)
Greens: 14% (13-16%)
Lib Dem: 12% (11-14%)
Other: 3% (3-4%)
SNP: 3% (2-3%)
Reform: 29% (27-31%)
Labour: 20% (18-22%)
Conservative: 19% (17-20%)
Greens: 14% (13-16%)
Lib Dem: 12% (11-14%)
Other: 3% (3-4%)
SNP: 3% (2-3%)
February 14, 2026 at 10:25 AM
UK Poll of Polls, 14 February 2026
Reform: 29% (27-31%)
Labour: 20% (18-22%)
Conservative: 19% (17-20%)
Greens: 14% (13-16%)
Lib Dem: 12% (11-14%)
Other: 3% (3-4%)
SNP: 3% (2-3%)
Reform: 29% (27-31%)
Labour: 20% (18-22%)
Conservative: 19% (17-20%)
Greens: 14% (13-16%)
Lib Dem: 12% (11-14%)
Other: 3% (3-4%)
SNP: 3% (2-3%)
Brushing up on some reading for a research ethics workshop I'm running in a couple of weeks and perhaps getting a little carried away...
February 12, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Brushing up on some reading for a research ethics workshop I'm running in a couple of weeks and perhaps getting a little carried away...
Sounds like excellent research and I will not be asking any probing questions about causal identification at this time.
February 9, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Sounds like excellent research and I will not be asking any probing questions about causal identification at this time.
This is fun, even if the British Media, Politics, and Policy cluster is hanging out on the edge of the galaxy.
February 9, 2026 at 2:34 PM
This is fun, even if the British Media, Politics, and Policy cluster is hanging out on the edge of the galaxy.