@chipusher.bsky.social
Sr. Dir. for Intel at Special Competitive Studies Project. Retired CIA SIS officer. Duke & National War College grad.
The U.S. built the world's best computer vision system but is underutlizing it.
Shelby Pierson, former NGA Director for Analysis, on why the barrier is institutional, not technical — and why 2026–2030 is the window.
www.scsp.ai/resource/sen...
Shelby Pierson, former NGA Director for Analysis, on why the barrier is institutional, not technical — and why 2026–2030 is the window.
www.scsp.ai/resource/sen...
Sensing The Threat - SCSP
The report argues that computer vision—especially automated change detection and persistent object monitoring—is technologically mature…
www.scsp.ai
August 13, 2026 at 3:47 PM
The U.S. built the world's best computer vision system but is underutlizing it.
Shelby Pierson, former NGA Director for Analysis, on why the barrier is institutional, not technical — and why 2026–2030 is the window.
www.scsp.ai/resource/sen...
Shelby Pierson, former NGA Director for Analysis, on why the barrier is institutional, not technical — and why 2026–2030 is the window.
www.scsp.ai/resource/sen...
What's left of Iran's nuclear program after the strikes? Amy McAuliffe, former CIA Assistant Director for Weapons & Counterproliferation, joins Intel at the Edge: the missing 60% HEU stockpile, retained know-how, and a new IRGC generation's weaponization calculus.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSiX...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSiX...
Iran's Nuclear Program: "Down But Not Out" — Amy McAuliffe on What's Left After the Strikes
YouTube video by Special Competitive Studies Project
www.youtube.com
July 29, 2026 at 6:44 PM
What's left of Iran's nuclear program after the strikes? Amy McAuliffe, former CIA Assistant Director for Weapons & Counterproliferation, joins Intel at the Edge: the missing 60% HEU stockpile, retained know-how, and a new IRGC generation's weaponization calculus.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSiX...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSiX...
For most Americans, Iraq fell off the map when the last combat troops rotated out and the headlines moved on. It is worth looking again, because the country has just lived through the most consequential nine months in its recent history.
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
Off the Fence
How the Iran War Forced Iraq to Choose—and Why Its Tilt Toward Washington May Not Hold
open.substack.com
July 10, 2026 at 7:09 PM
For most Americans, Iraq fell off the map when the last combat troops rotated out and the headlines moved on. It is worth looking again, because the country has just lived through the most consequential nine months in its recent history.
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
Seventy-five days of American and Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, destroyed much of its nuclear infrastructure, and decimated its senior military leadership. None of the campaign’s stated strategic objectives has been achieved.
substack.com/@williamushe...
substack.com/@williamushe...
Winning Every Battle, Losing the War
How Tactical Success in Iran Became Strategic Failure
substack.com
May 15, 2026 at 1:40 AM
Seventy-five days of American and Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, destroyed much of its nuclear infrastructure, and decimated its senior military leadership. None of the campaign’s stated strategic objectives has been achieved.
substack.com/@williamushe...
substack.com/@williamushe...
1/ Chinese tech firms with PLA supply chain ties are marketing AI-synthesized battlefield intelligence on U.S. forces in Iran — carrier strike group movements, sortie cycles, base buildups. Commercial data. Military-grade output. (WaPo, April 4)
April 4, 2026 at 10:52 PM
1/ Chinese tech firms with PLA supply chain ties are marketing AI-synthesized battlefield intelligence on U.S. forces in Iran — carrier strike group movements, sortie cycles, base buildups. Commercial data. Military-grade output. (WaPo, April 4)
1/ The DOJ has charged defendants in at least three separate cases over six weeks for illegally diverting US AI technology to China. These aren't isolated incidents — the shared architecture points to a systematic, multi-vector acquisition campaign. 🧵
April 3, 2026 at 2:02 PM
1/ The DOJ has charged defendants in at least three separate cases over six weeks for illegally diverting US AI technology to China. These aren't isolated incidents — the shared architecture points to a systematic, multi-vector acquisition campaign. 🧵
Reposted
On Lawfare Daily, 2 intelligence community veterans, @chipusher.bsky.social and Aaron Faust, joined @sranderson.bsky.social to discuss the national security threats that Iran presents and where the Trump administration—and Iran—may take the conflict from here. youtu.be/nJy9dZhxBpU
March 27, 2026 at 2:11 PM
On Lawfare Daily, 2 intelligence community veterans, @chipusher.bsky.social and Aaron Faust, joined @sranderson.bsky.social to discuss the national security threats that Iran presents and where the Trump administration—and Iran—may take the conflict from here. youtu.be/nJy9dZhxBpU
How do we maintain a "decision advantage" in an era of endless data? 🌐
We're hosting the SCSP AI+ Intelligence Summit on April 9!
Check out the full agenda: www.scsp.ai/ai-intellige...
[#AI #Intelligence #NationalSecurity #SCSP]
We're hosting the SCSP AI+ Intelligence Summit on April 9!
Check out the full agenda: www.scsp.ai/ai-intellige...
[#AI #Intelligence #NationalSecurity #SCSP]
AI+ Intelligence - SCSP
AI+ Intelligence ai+ intelligence AI is changing the rules. Come join us to write the…
www.scsp.ai
March 26, 2026 at 4:39 PM
How do we maintain a "decision advantage" in an era of endless data? 🌐
We're hosting the SCSP AI+ Intelligence Summit on April 9!
Check out the full agenda: www.scsp.ai/ai-intellige...
[#AI #Intelligence #NationalSecurity #SCSP]
We're hosting the SCSP AI+ Intelligence Summit on April 9!
Check out the full agenda: www.scsp.ai/ai-intellige...
[#AI #Intelligence #NationalSecurity #SCSP]
The U.S. is drifting toward a de facto WTO withdrawal. 🏛️
By blocking judges and picking bilateral deals over global rules, we’re creating a "hub-and-spoke" system. But the danger isn't just economic—it’s strategic.
If we leave the arena, we hand China the power to lead a "Minus-U.S. WTO."
By blocking judges and picking bilateral deals over global rules, we’re creating a "hub-and-spoke" system. But the danger isn't just economic—it’s strategic.
If we leave the arena, we hand China the power to lead a "Minus-U.S. WTO."
March 9, 2026 at 3:02 PM
The U.S. is drifting toward a de facto WTO withdrawal. 🏛️
By blocking judges and picking bilateral deals over global rules, we’re creating a "hub-and-spoke" system. But the danger isn't just economic—it’s strategic.
If we leave the arena, we hand China the power to lead a "Minus-U.S. WTO."
By blocking judges and picking bilateral deals over global rules, we’re creating a "hub-and-spoke" system. But the danger isn't just economic—it’s strategic.
If we leave the arena, we hand China the power to lead a "Minus-U.S. WTO."
The Anthropic/Google reports reveal a new "Extraction-Exploitation Loop" in AI warfare.
Beijing is now:
Extracting US AI capabilities via "Hydra Clusters"
Stripping guardrails to weaponize the models
Using results to train the next gen
Traditional chokepoints can't stop machine-speed cycles.
Beijing is now:
Extracting US AI capabilities via "Hydra Clusters"
Stripping guardrails to weaponize the models
Using results to train the next gen
Traditional chokepoints can't stop machine-speed cycles.
March 5, 2026 at 3:04 PM
The Anthropic/Google reports reveal a new "Extraction-Exploitation Loop" in AI warfare.
Beijing is now:
Extracting US AI capabilities via "Hydra Clusters"
Stripping guardrails to weaponize the models
Using results to train the next gen
Traditional chokepoints can't stop machine-speed cycles.
Beijing is now:
Extracting US AI capabilities via "Hydra Clusters"
Stripping guardrails to weaponize the models
Using results to train the next gen
Traditional chokepoints can't stop machine-speed cycles.
The US is already most of the way out of the WTO. The real question is what China, Russia, and the EU do next — and whether Washington has gamed that out.
New on Fault Lines: what a formal withdrawal would actually set in motion.
buff.ly/JIdpmKx
New on Fault Lines: what a formal withdrawal would actually set in motion.
buff.ly/JIdpmKx
Exiting the Arena: What a US Withdrawal from the WTO Would Actually Mean
The logic of coercive bilateralism has its own momentum—and its own risks.
open.substack.com
March 2, 2026 at 11:16 PM
The US is already most of the way out of the WTO. The real question is what China, Russia, and the EU do next — and whether Washington has gamed that out.
New on Fault Lines: what a formal withdrawal would actually set in motion.
buff.ly/JIdpmKx
New on Fault Lines: what a formal withdrawal would actually set in motion.
buff.ly/JIdpmKx
Next on Fault Lines: After Khamenei
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
After Khamenei
Five Scenarios for Iran and How Washington Can Shape Iran's Post-Conflict Future
open.substack.com
March 1, 2026 at 3:57 PM
Next on Fault Lines: After Khamenei
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
Emergency Update on Iran with Norman Roule
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
Emergency Update on Iran with Norman Roule
New episode of Intel at the Edge out now.
open.substack.com
February 24, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Emergency Update on Iran with Norman Roule
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
Netanyahu’s Endgame in Gaza, the West Bank, and the Politics of Permanent Interim
williamusher.substack.com/p/the-calcul...
williamusher.substack.com/p/the-calcul...
The Calculated Ambiguity
Netanyahu’s Endgame in Gaza, the West Bank, and the Politics of Permanent Interim
williamusher.substack.com
February 23, 2026 at 10:11 PM
Netanyahu’s Endgame in Gaza, the West Bank, and the Politics of Permanent Interim
williamusher.substack.com/p/the-calcul...
williamusher.substack.com/p/the-calcul...
How the CIA Launched the Predator Program with Alec Bierbauer
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
How the CIA Launched the Predator Program with Alec Bierbauer
In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher sits down with retired CIA officer Alec Bierbauer, a core founder of the team that launched the agency’s revolutionary Predator drone program.
open.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 3:22 PM
How the CIA Launched the Predator Program with Alec Bierbauer
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
Subscriptions | Substack
open.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 9:11 PM
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
bit.ly/49HfrpH
bit.ly/49HfrpH
After the Fall: Who Would Lead a Post-Islamic Republic Iran?
The protests that erupted from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, have evolved into the largest challenge to the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979.
bit.ly
January 15, 2026 at 4:34 PM
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
bit.ly/49HfrpH
bit.ly/49HfrpH
I shared my thoughts on the protests in Iran with the great #PeterMartin from Bloomberg. You can check out the article here (paywalled). #Iran www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iran Edges Closer to a Revolution That Would Reshape the World
If the uprising succeeds in toppling the Islamic Republic, it would upend global geopolitics and energy markets — with the risk of widespread chaos.
www.bloomberg.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:09 AM
I shared my thoughts on the protests in Iran with the great #PeterMartin from Bloomberg. You can check out the article here (paywalled). #Iran www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
7/7 - Bottom line: The people in Iran's streets will determine the outcome. Great powers can shape the environment but can't control the decision. After 40+ years of "the regime is about to fall" predictions, humility is warranted. But this time does feel different.
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
The World Watches Tehran: How Global Powers Are Calculating Their Next Moves on Iran
As regime-threatening protests engulf Iran, the great powers are recalibrating—but their interests diverge sharply. A strategic assessment.
bit.ly
January 14, 2026 at 1:01 AM
7/7 - Bottom line: The people in Iran's streets will determine the outcome. Great powers can shape the environment but can't control the decision. After 40+ years of "the regime is about to fall" predictions, humility is warranted. But this time does feel different.
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
6/7 - SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS worth watching:
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
January 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM
6/7 - SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS worth watching:
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
5/7 - THE U.S.: Trump threatens strikes but the options being briefed are "largely non-kinetic"—cyber, sanctions, Starlink. The Maduro capture showed willingness to act. But Iran isn't Venezuela. 2 million bpd of oil. Thousands of missiles. No good endgame scenarios.
January 14, 2026 at 12:58 AM
5/7 - THE U.S.: Trump threatens strikes but the options being briefed are "largely non-kinetic"—cyber, sanctions, Starlink. The Maduro capture showed willingness to act. But Iran isn't Venezuela. 2 million bpd of oil. Thousands of missiles. No good endgame scenarios.
4/7 - GULF STATES: Deafening silence from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They'd love to see the Islamic Republic fall—but they share a maritime border with Iran and 21% of global oil transits Hormuz. Chaos next door isn't obviously better than a weakened enemy.
January 14, 2026 at 12:57 AM
4/7 - GULF STATES: Deafening silence from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They'd love to see the Islamic Republic fall—but they share a maritime border with Iran and 21% of global oil transits Hormuz. Chaos next door isn't obviously better than a weakened enemy.
3/7 - RUSSIA: Moscow is shipping Mi-28 helicopters to Iran while preparing asylum for Khamenei. Classic Putin: loyal enough to maintain the relationship if the regime survives, pragmatic enough to cut losses if it doesn't. Syria taught the Kremlin its limits.
January 14, 2026 at 12:56 AM
3/7 - RUSSIA: Moscow is shipping Mi-28 helicopters to Iran while preparing asylum for Khamenei. Classic Putin: loyal enough to maintain the relationship if the regime survives, pragmatic enough to cut losses if it doesn't. Syria taught the Kremlin its limits.
2/7 - CHINA: "Partnership, not alliance." That phrase from Beijing's spokesman is doing a lot of work. Translation: We'll buy your cheap oil, but we won't defend you. Tehran learned this during the June war. No Chinese air defense systems arrived when Israeli missiles did.
January 14, 2026 at 12:55 AM
2/7 - CHINA: "Partnership, not alliance." That phrase from Beijing's spokesman is doing a lot of work. Translation: We'll buy your cheap oil, but we won't defend you. Tehran learned this during the June war. No Chinese air defense systems arrived when Israeli missiles did.