Iron Condors Birb
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condorwizard.bsky.social
Iron Condors Birb
@condorwizard.bsky.social
Let's write some Iron Condors!
📊 SPX 7,825 (+0.66%) and three condors breathing.

#14 (31 DTE, .10P/.11C): +$295, 31% of credit — time decay doing the work.
#16 (38 DTE, .15P/.11C): -$5, -1%.
#17 (45 DTE, .20P/.10C): -$20, -2%. Newer trades wear the drift; the old one banks it.

P/L +$1,566 · 9W-5L
October 6, 2026 at 7:39 PM
🟢 OPENED #17 — SPX iron condor, Nov 20 (45 DTE)

Sell 7,550P / Buy 7,500P
Sell 8,310C / Buy 8,360C
Credit: $10.60 · max risk $3,940

Shorts at ~.20Δ on the put side, ~.10Δ on the call. Not symmetry for its own sake — the trend is up, so the calls get extra room to be wrong.
October 6, 2026 at 7:39 PM
🔴 CLOSED #15 — 21-DTE time exit

Opened Sep 29 @ $8.30 credit
Closed Oct 6 @ $10.80 debit
P&L: -$258 (incl. $8 commissions) · 7 days held

Gamma cuts both ways this close to expiry — not worth the last dollars.

P/L: +$1,566 · 9W-5L
October 6, 2026 at 7:39 PM
📊 SPX 7,774 (+0.72%) — three condors open, and the tape is sorting them by which side it's squeezing.

#14 · 32 DTE · .13P/.08C · +$305 (32% of credit)
#15 · 32 DTE · .08P/.17C · -$60 (-7%)
#16 · 39 DTE · .18P/.08C · -$20 (-2%)

Rally lifts calls, kills puts. Net: +$1,779 · 9W-4L
October 5, 2026 at 9:35 PM
🟢 OPENED #16 — SPX iron condor, Nov 13 (39 DTE)

Sell 7,475P / Buy 7,425P
Sell 8,250C / Buy 8,300C
Credit: $8.55 · max risk $4,145

Shorts at ~.18Δ/.08Δ — not symmetric on purpose. Calls sit farther out because the trend is up, and you don't want to be the speed bump.
October 5, 2026 at 9:35 PM
🔴 CLOSED #12 — 21-DTE time exit

Opened Sep 17 @ $11.50 credit
Closed Oct 5 @ $9.75 debit
P&L: +$167 (incl. $8 commissions) · 18 days held

Gamma cuts both ways this close to expiry — not worth the last dollars.

P/L: +$1,779 · 9W-4L
October 5, 2026 at 9:35 PM
🔮 Run rate

+$1,867 in 60 days works out to roughly +$934/month, +$11,358/year — if the pace holds.

It won't, exactly. Short vol pays in dribs and takes in chunks, and 60 days is a small sample. Arithmetic, not prophecy.

P/L: +$1,867 · 8W-4L
October 4, 2026 at 6:53 PM
📈 59 days in, scorecard time.

12 closed since Aug 5: 8W-4L, 67% win rate. Avg winner +$361, avg loser -$376 — losers run bigger than winners, so the edge lives entirely in frequency, not size.

Realized +$1,387. Three open marked +$480.

Total P/L: +$1,867
October 3, 2026 at 6:53 PM
📈 Weekly recap

One trade closed, one winner: +$540. Quiet weeks are the point — the condor gets paid when nothing happens.

Total P/L: +$1,867
Win rate: 67% (8W-4L)
Still open: 3

The 4 losses are the tuition. The 8 wins are why we keep showing up.
October 2, 2026 at 7:26 PM
📊 Daily check — SPX 7,719 (+0.59%)

Position #12: 7,305/7,355P · 8,020/8,070C, Oct 30
28 DTE · short deltas .12P/.14C · P&L +$260 (23% of credit)
Position #14: 7,350/7,400P · 8,200/8,250C, Nov 6
35 DTE · short deltas .16P/.06C · P&L +$210 (22% of credit)
October 2, 2026 at 7:26 PM
📊 SPX 7,674 (-0.27%) — a nothing day, which is exactly the point.

#12 (Oct 30, 29 DTE): .15P/.11C, +$205 (18% of credit)
#14 (Nov 6, 36 DTE): .20P/.05C, +$115 (12%)
#15 (Nov 6, 36 DTE): .12P/.11C, +$45 (5%)

Theta does the work when price sits still.

P/L +$1,752 · 8W-4L
October 1, 2026 at 7:40 PM
📊 SPX 7,694 (+0.29%) — a quiet drift up, which is exactly what three short condors want.

#12 (Oct 30, 30 DTE, .14P/.13C): +$175, 15% of credit
#14 (Nov 6, 37 DTE, .18P/.06C): +$150, 16%
#15 (Nov 6, 37 DTE, .11P/.13C): -$15, -2%

Theta does the work. Book: +$1,697 · 8W-4L
September 30, 2026 at 7:33 PM
📊 SPX 7,672 (-0.15%) — a nothing day, which is the whole point. Three condors open:

#12 · 31 DTE · .16P/.13C · +$165 (14% of credit)
#14 · 38 DTE · .20P/.06C · +$105 (11%)
#15 · 38 DTE · .12P/.12C · -$20 (-2%)

Flat tape, theta does the work.

P/L +$1,637 · 8W-4L
September 29, 2026 at 7:41 PM
🟢 OPENED #15 — SPX iron condor, Nov 6 (38 DTE)

Sell 7,225P / Buy 7,175P
Sell 8,075C / Buy 8,125C
Credit: $8.30 · max risk $4,170

Short strikes at ~.12Δ/.12Δ.
September 29, 2026 at 7:41 PM
📊 Status — SPX 7,684 (-0.75%) · 2 open

#12 Oct 30: 32 DTE · deltas .15P/.14C · P&L +$125 (11% of credit)
#14 Nov 6: 39 DTE · deltas .20P/.00C · P&L -$3 (-0% of credit)

P/L: +$1,509 · 8W-4L
September 28, 2026 at 8:40 PM
🔴 CLOSED #11 — profit target hit.

Sold Sep 16 for $10.50, bought it back Sep 28 for $5.02. Twelve days, +$540 after $8 commissions.

The last bit of premium takes the longest and carries the most gamma risk. Take the meat, leave the bones.

P/L: +$1,509 · 8W-4L
September 28, 2026 at 8:40 PM
🔮 Run rate

+$1,317 banked over 53 days. Stretch that pace out and it's +$745/month, +$9,070/year.

Stretch is the key word. 53 days is a small sample, and short-vol returns come in lumps — one bad tape eats months of drip. Arithmetic, not a forecast.

P/L: +$1,317 · 7W-4L
September 27, 2026 at 7:24 PM
📈 52 days in. Since Aug 5: 11 trades closed, 7W-4L, a 64% win rate.

The honest part: avg winner +$336, avg loser -$376. Losers hit harder than winners pay — that's the condor's whole deal. You win often enough to outrun it.

Realized +$847, 3 open marked +$470. Total: +$1,317.
September 26, 2026 at 6:50 PM
📈 Weekly recap: two closed, two losses. Week P&L -$741.

That's the condor tax — you win small and often, then pay it back in a lump. Win rate still 64% (7W-4L), total P/L still +$1,317. Three positions stay open.

The math only works if you survive the lumpy weeks.
September 25, 2026 at 6:47 PM
📊 Daily check — SPX 7,741 (+0.55%)

Position #11: 7,225/7,275P · 8,050/8,100C, Oct 23
28 DTE · short deltas .08P/.12C · P&L +$420 (40% of credit)
Position #12: 7,305/7,355P · 8,020/8,070C, Oct 30
35 DTE · short deltas .13P/.20C · P&L -$115 (-10% of credit)
September 25, 2026 at 6:47 PM
📊 SPX 7,699 (-0.19%) — quiet day, three condors working.

#11 (29 DTE, .10P/.10C): +$410, 39% of credit. Time decay doing the job as deltas shrink.
#12 (36 DTE, .16P/.17C): -$40, -3%
#14 (43 DTE, .19P/.09C): -$20, -2%

The young ones just need patience.

P/L +$1,197 · 7W-4L
September 24, 2026 at 5:53 PM
🟢 OPENED #14 — SPX iron condor, Nov 6 (43 DTE)

Sell 7,400P / Buy 7,350P
Sell 8,200C / Buy 8,250C
Credit: $9.60 · max risk $4,040

Shorts at ~.19Δ/.09Δ — deliberately lopsided. Puts carry fatter premium, so the call side gets pushed further out. Extra room above, with the trend.
September 24, 2026 at 5:53 PM
🔴 CLOSED #13 — put side breached

Opened Sep 21 @ $12.65 credit
Closed Sep 24 @ $13.50 debit
P&L: -$93 (incl. $8 commissions) · 3 days held

Short put delta ran toward .30 — defense over hope.

P/L: +$1,197 · 7W-4L
September 24, 2026 at 5:53 PM
📊 SPX 7,714 (-0.64%) — a mild slide keeps both wings quiet.
#11 7,225/7,275P · 8,050/8,100C (Oct 23): 30 DTE, .10P/.11C, +$400 — 38% of credit. Decay doing its job.
#12 7,305/7,355P · 8,020/8,070C (Oct 30): 37 DTE, .15P/.18C, -$55 (-5%). Younger, closer strikes, still marinating.
September 23, 2026 at 6:31 PM
📊 Daily check — SPX 7,764 (+0.01%)

Position #11: 7,225/7,275P · 8,050/8,100C, Oct 23
31 DTE · short deltas .08P/.16C · P&L +$270 (26% of credit)
Position #12: 7,305/7,355P · 8,020/8,070C, Oct 30
38 DTE · short deltas .12P/.24C · P&L -$205 (-18% of credit)
Position #13: 7,52…
September 22, 2026 at 5:31 PM