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Datocracy
@datocracy.bsky.social
Visualising politics and society through data.

https://linktr.ee/datocracy
Polling averages (30th June 2026)

➡️ REF: 26.2% (-0.8)
🌹 LAB: 20.0% (+0.7)
🌳 CON: 19.2% (+0.4)
💚 GRN: 13.1% (-0.2)
🔶 LDM: 12.3% (=)
🔵 RES: 3.7% (+0.7)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 3.0% (=)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 1.2% (-0.2)
⚪️ Other: 3.8% (-0.2)

(+/- vs 15th June 2026)
July 1, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Party leaders average net favourability (30/06/2026):

🌹 Andy Burnham*: -8.9% (+0.6)
🔶 Ed Davey: -9.1% (+2.3)
🌳 Kemi Badenoch: -10.6% (+3.5)
💚 Zack Polanski: -21.0% (+3.5)
➡️ Nigel Farage: -28.0% (+3.2)
🌹 Keir Starmer: -42.4% (+4.0)

*Expected to be next Labour leader

(+/- vs 15/06/2026)
July 1, 2026 at 12:23 PM
Net favourability:

🌹Burnham: -4
🔶Davey: -9
🌹Healey: -10
🌹Powell: -12
🌹Phillipson: -14
🌳Badenoch: -15
🌹Nandy: -16
🌳Stride: -16
🌳Cleverly: -19
🔵Lowe: -20
🌹Cooper: -21
🌹Mahmood: -25
💚Polanski: -26
🌹Miliband: -32
🌹Rayner: -33
🌹Streeting: -38
➡️Farage: -40
🫵Corbyn: -40
🌹Starmer: -45
🌹Reeves: -50
June 27, 2026 at 12:28 PM
Andy Burnham net favourability (22/06/2026):

-4%

✅ 34% favourable
❌ 38% unfavourable

📈 Up 7 points from prior to the Makerfield by-election.
📉 Down 2 points from 1 month ago.
📉 Down 13 points from high of +9% on 21/04/2026.
June 24, 2026 at 10:57 AM
Greater Manchester mayoral by-election candidates:

🌹 LAB: Bev Craig
🌳 CON: Nadim Muslim*
🔶 LDM: TBA
➡️ REF: Dan Barker*
💚 GRN: Geraldine Coggins
🔵 RES: Marlon West
⚙️ WPGB: George Galloway

*To be confirmed
June 23, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Number of paid trips to Israel MPs have accepted since the 2024 general election, by party:

🌳 CON: 34
🌹 LAB: 31
🔶 LDM: 10
🦁 DUP: 2
➡️ REF: 1
🙋 IND: 1
💚 GRN: 0

Note: 4 other paid trips to Israel were accepted by current Reform UK MPs before they defected from the Conservative Party.
June 23, 2026 at 6:11 AM
Question: How much change do you think it would make if Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as Prime Minister?

✅ NET change: 32%
❌ NET no change: 43%
⚪️ Don't know: 25%

Source: @yougov.co.uk
June 19, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Question: Do you think Andy Burnham would make a better Prime Minister than Keir Starmer?

📈 Better than Starmer: 23%
✅ Both equally good: 8%
❌ Neither would be good: 32%
📉 Worse than Starmer: 8%
⚪️ Don’t know: 29%

Source: @yougov.co.uk
June 19, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Proportion of council seats successfully defended since LE2026:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 100% (3/3)
🔶 LDM: 100% (2/2)
💚 GRN: 100% (2/2)
🌹 LAB: 100% (1/1)
🌳 CON: 37.5% (3/8)
➡️ REF: 0% (0/2)
🙋 IND/LOC: 0% (0/2)

Source: @electionmaps.uk
June 19, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Pub landlords’ confidence their pub will survive the next 12 months:

❌ Not confident: 47%
⚪️ Neutral: 19%
✅ Confident: 29%

Source: @survation.bsky.social
June 19, 2026 at 12:43 PM
Westminster Voting intention (Andy Burnham as Labour leader, weighted average of all hypothetical polls):

➡️ REF: 27%
🌹 LAB: 26%
🌳 CON: 17%
🔶 LDM: 11%
💚 GRN: 11%
⚪️ Other: 8%
June 19, 2026 at 5:43 AM
Makerfield by-election polls:

Average error:

Weighted average of all polls: 2.7%
Convergent: 2.6%
Survation: 2.7%
Opinium: 3.0%
More In Common: 3.3%

Highest single error:

Weighted average of all polls: 7.8%
Convergent: 5.8%
Survation: 7.0%
Opinium: 8.8%
More In Common: 9.8%
June 19, 2026 at 5:39 AM
Andy Burnham net favourability (15/06/2026):

-11%

30% favourable
41% unfavourable

Down 15 points since 1 month ago.
Down 20 points since high of +9% on 21/04/2026.
June 16, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Makerfield by-election voting intention (weighted average of all polls as of 12th June):

🌹 LAB: 46% (-2)
➡️ REF: 40% (+1)
🔵 RES: 7% (-1)
🌳 CON: 2% (+1)
💚 GRN: 2% (=)
🔶 LDM: 1% (-1)
⚪️ Other: 1% (=)

(+/- vs 1st June)
June 13, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Net difference in voting intention between gay/bi and straight women:

💚 GRN: +26% (leans gay/bi)
🌹 LAB: +2%
🔶 LDM: -5%
🌳 CON: -12%
➡️ REF: -17% (leans straight)

Source: @moreincommonuk.bsky.social
June 10, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Net difference in voting intention between gay/bi and straight men:

💚 GRN: +12% (leans gay/bi)
🔶 LDM: +2%
🌹 LAB: -4%
🌳 CON: -5%
➡️ REF: -8% (leans straight)

Source: @moreincommonuk.bsky.social
June 10, 2026 at 2:05 PM
How Scotland voted in the 2026 Holyrood election, by age (regional):

Under 50:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 27%
💚 GRN: 23%
🌹 LAB: 16%
➡️ REF: 13%
🔶 LDM: 10%
🌳 CON: 7%
⚪️ Other: 5%

50 and over:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 28%
➡️ REF: 20%
🌹 LAB: 16%
🌳 CON: 15%
🔶 LDM: 8%
💚 GRN: 6%
⚪️ Other: 5%

Source: @yougov.co.uk
June 8, 2026 at 9:41 AM
How Wales voted in the 2026 Senedd election, by age:

Under 60:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 42%
➡️ REF: 24%
🌹 LAB: 10%
💚 GRN: 9%
🌳 CON: 7%
🔶 LDM: 4%
⚪️ Other: 2%

60 and over:

➡️ REF: 36%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 25%
🌳 CON: 15%
🌹 LAB: 12%
🔶 LDM: 5%
💚 GRN: 3%
⚪️ Other: 2%

Source: @yougov.co.uk
June 7, 2026 at 3:49 PM
Makerfield by-election voting intention (polling average weighted by recency):

🌹 LAB: 48% (+3)
➡️ REF: 39% (+7)
🔵 RES: 8% (+8)
💚 GRN: 2% (-2)
🔶 LDM: 2% (-5)
🌳 CON: 1% (-10)
⚪️ Other: 1% (=)

(+/- vs GE2024)
June 5, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Voting intention (Burnham vs Starmer as Labour leader):

Burnham:

➡️ REF: 28%
🌹 LAB: 24%
🌳 CON: 16%
🔶 LDM: 11%
💚 GRN: 11%
⚪️ Other: 10%

Starmer:

➡️ REF: 30%
🌹 LAB: 21%
🌳 CON: 17%
💚 GRN: 13%
🔶 LDM: 12%
⚪️ Other: 8%

Source: BMG Research
June 2, 2026 at 6:06 AM
Polling averages (May 2026):

➡️ REF: 26.9% (+1.0)
🌹 LAB: 19.0% (+0.5)
🌳 CON: 18.3% (-0.1)
💚 GRN: 14.5% (-1.6)
🔶 LDM: 12.4% (+0.4)
🔵 RES: 3.3% (-0.3)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 3.2% (+0.5)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 1.3% (+0.3)
⚪️ Other: 4.1% (-0.2)

(+/- April 2026)
June 1, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Support for doctors’ strikes in the UK, over time:

July 2024:

Support: 59%
Oppose: 28%

December 2025:

Support: 30%
Oppose: 58%

May 2026:

Support: 37%
Oppose: 52%

Source: @yougov.co.uk
May 31, 2026 at 11:03 AM
Support for doctors’ strikes, by age:

18-24:

Support: 59%
Oppose: 26%

25-49:

Support: 44%
Oppose: 41%

50-64:

Support: 29%
Oppose: 62%

65+:

Support: 22%
Oppose: 73%

Source: @YouGov
May 30, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Question Time appearances since the general election, by individual:

➡️ Zia Yusuf (REF): 7
🔶 Daisy Cooper (LDM): 5
🌹 Peter Kyle (LAB): 4
🌹 Nick Thomas-Symonds (LAB): 4
🌳 Nigel Huddleston (CON): 4
🌳 Harriet Baldwin (CON): 4
🌹 Lisa Nandy (LAB): 4
🌹 James Murray (LAB): 4
May 28, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Question Time appearances as a percentage of episodes since the general election, by party affiliation:

🌹 LAB: 125.0%
🌳 CON: 117.2%
➡️ REF: 46.9%
🔶 LDM: 43.8%
💚 GRN: 23.4%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 10.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 6.3%
🔴 SDP: 3.1%
🍀 SF: 1.6%
🦁 DUP: 1.6%
🫵 YP: 1.6%
⚪️ None: 85.9%
Question Time appearances since the general election, by party affiliation:

🌹 LAB: 80
🌳 CON: 75
➡️ REF: 30
🔶 LDM: 28
💚 GRN: 15
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 7
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLC: 4
🔴 SDP: 2
🍀 SF: 1
🦁 DUP: 1
🫵 YP: 1
⚪️ None: 55
May 28, 2026 at 1:27 PM