Dean Oliver
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Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
3.3K followers 57 following 760 posts
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · Jan 22
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.

open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
The Sixers have a lot of "super-users", players who shoot a lot. The NBA history of teams with so many of them has a lot of LeBron teams. What can we see in that history?

www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
NBA preview 2026-27: Can the 76ers solve their 'super-user' puzzle?
LeBron, Maxey, Brown, Embiid. Can the 76ers' high-usage stars make it work? Here's what history reveals.
www.espn.com
September 14, 2026 at 12:26 PM
My analytics contribution to the Blazers offseason capsule: They have a lot of players who are predicted to be positive, just not highly positive.

www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Portland Trail Blazers offseason recap, early 2026-27 season preview
With noise outside the hardwood growing in Portland, how will the Blazers respond? We're looking at the offseason and previewing the 2026-27 season.
www.espn.com
August 17, 2026 at 12:36 PM
These are the key players who had synergy with LaMelo Ball last year. Knueppel and Bridges shot markedly better on passes from him vs from Coby White. Miller was the opposite. But shot quality was higher for all on passes from Ball.
June 26, 2026 at 1:23 PM
The Spurs hot starts vs the Knicks steady climb back, by quarter.
- Towns is at his best in Q2/3
- Wemby does well in Q1, struggles in Q2
- OG is Q4 hero
June 11, 2026 at 5:51 PM
Series MVP after each game
- It was KAT after each of the first three games
- Now it's OG, who was 2nd after G 3

espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
June 11, 2026 at 12:51 PM
The Spurs shot quality was 44% in the second half. It was the lowest they've posted in any half all year long.

(GeniusIQ, QSQ)
June 11, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Echoing Greeny's point on Get Up, Josh Hart came out just ahead of KAT as having the most net points last night...despite scoring only 3 points.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
June 4, 2026 at 12:16 PM
June 2, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Reposted by Dean Oliver
benalamar.bsky.social
If you like sports data, be sure to check out espnanalytics.com @deanolytics.bsky.social @sethwalder.bsky.social and the entire ESPN Analytics team have put together some very cool and insightful data products.
ESPN Analytics
Models and data visualization from ESPN Analytics. NBA & NFL Draft, schedule analysis, receiver scores and more.
espnanalytics.com
May 29, 2026 at 4:48 PM
The original reference for stats and lampposts was this from Andrew Lang: "Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination."

I try to use stats for illumination. It actually bugs me when people look to stats only for support.
May 27, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Since the Knicks' players-only meeting on January 19, the Knicks' starters improved a lot on defense. Brunson declined some on offense, but was overall improved.
May 27, 2026 at 3:44 PM
From the time the Spurs were up 8 in Q1 to the end of Q2 when OKC was up 11, this is the list of contributors.

Caruso had most of his value in that run.
May 27, 2026 at 1:17 PM
In the halfcourt, Wemby's matchups are shooting 19/37 from 3 in this series (GeniusIQ). He's obviously contributing in other ways on D, but that is relevant. Most of that is Caruso, with some Wallace.

In SA wins, the team allows an 86 DRTG with him on. In losses, it's 118.
May 27, 2026 at 12:33 PM
If the Thunder had won the series 3-2, Alex Caruso would be the MVP. But it's not over.

espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
May 27, 2026 at 12:13 PM
The Knicks' starters last night all had positive Net Pts on both sides of the ball. That happened in 27 other games across the league this year. The Knicks have 6 of those 28, most in the league, all but one since February

Their starters are gelling.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
May 22, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Last night's Hero, MVP, LVP, Cleanup Crew, Glass Cleaner.

With the injuries, though, we may need to add awards for the trainers, who do an amazing job and usually quietly. We'll see who can play next game.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
May 21, 2026 at 2:27 PM
I found this quote from SGA interesting: "Every team has their identity. And when they impose their identity more than the other team does, they usually win."

"Identity" = things you do well enough that you can fall back on them. Good teams spend a long while building that.
May 21, 2026 at 2:25 PM
Last night was the Spurs worst defensive game of the playoffs. Not for lack of effort, for sure.

It wasn't transition or putbacks, it was halfcourt.
Worst G vs HC 2s
4th worst vs 3s
2nd worst DREB
3rd worst TOVs

espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA...
May 21, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Last night, Wemby allowed 7/10 shooting and 6 three-pointers to Alex Caruso (per GeniusIQ) and he *still* had +5.3 defensive net points, which is in the top 1% of all player games.

That is crazy help defense.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
May 19, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Awards from yesterday:
- Sam Merrill and Evan Mobley each had their 3rd best game of the year
- Donovan Mitchell had his season high in passing net points yesterday with +3.1
- Jalen Duren had 6 of his worst 12 games in the playoffs

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
May 18, 2026 at 1:22 PM
These are the most inconsistent players in the playoffs, using +2 and -2 net points as delineation of good, average, and bad.
- Highlighted players are still alive
- Donovan Mitchell and De'Aaron Fox have been noticeably inconsistent
- the first OKC player is at #81.
May 14, 2026 at 1:49 PM
This is the net points timeline for last night's game
- You can see Wemby's first quarter burst
- See Keldon Johnson in the second half of Q3
- See De'Aaron Fox, mostly for comparison
May 13, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Best and worst awards for the OKC win over the Lakers.
- Ajay Mitchell gets MVP and Heater of the game
- SGA gets the Contact Artist award
- LeBron's double-double doesn't make the list
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
May 12, 2026 at 2:16 PM
Donovan Mitchell's Q3 was the second best Q in the playoffs, best offensive Q, producing +10.2 Net Pts overall and +9.1 on offense.

But...

Mitchell actually did it in under 8 minutes and it was the best performance in a Q per minute all year (minimum 10 possessions).

That's a steep yellow line
May 12, 2026 at 1:58 PM
Embiid's perfect night shooting in combination with a +/- of -24 is rare. I found one case of at least 6 FGM&A, 20+ mins, and a worse +/- (Clint Capela, 2/11/22) in the last 8 years.

The avg Net Pts for these players was +6.4. Embiid +1.4. Capela -4.0.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
May 11, 2026 at 2:06 PM