ElectionCord
@electioncord.com
US Political Consulting & Analysis Through a Demographic Lens
Join Discord Here: https://discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
https://electioncord.com/
Join Discord Here: https://discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
https://electioncord.com/
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Not All Christians Vote the Same Way
electioncord.com
NEW ARTICLE: I went over a topic that isn't understood as well as it probably should be: the fact that not all Christians vote the same way in America, and that different denominations have different takes on social issues.
LINK: electioncord.com/not-all-chri...
LINK: electioncord.com/not-all-chri...
QOTD: What race would you like to see more polling of?
Personally, I'd like to see more SC-1, as well as more Florida polling
Personally, I'd like to see more SC-1, as well as more Florida polling
September 17, 2026 at 6:39 PM
QOTD: What race would you like to see more polling of?
Personally, I'd like to see more SC-1, as well as more Florida polling
Personally, I'd like to see more SC-1, as well as more Florida polling
100K Districts on Tabula America Genus that:
-Are majority-minority
-Are in the bottom 25% percentile in income
In our Cartogram view!
There are areas that had huge swings to Trump in 24, and areas that may swing back hardest to Dems.
LINK: electioncord.com/genus/
-Are majority-minority
-Are in the bottom 25% percentile in income
In our Cartogram view!
There are areas that had huge swings to Trump in 24, and areas that may swing back hardest to Dems.
LINK: electioncord.com/genus/
September 17, 2026 at 6:25 PM
100K Districts on Tabula America Genus that:
-Are majority-minority
-Are in the bottom 25% percentile in income
In our Cartogram view!
There are areas that had huge swings to Trump in 24, and areas that may swing back hardest to Dems.
LINK: electioncord.com/genus/
-Are majority-minority
-Are in the bottom 25% percentile in income
In our Cartogram view!
There are areas that had huge swings to Trump in 24, and areas that may swing back hardest to Dems.
LINK: electioncord.com/genus/
Reposted by ElectionCord
Just as a comparison, according to a YouGov poll from September 19th, 2022 said only 48% of people disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy. People can come up with all the reasons they want, but the fundamental reason why Republicans are looking bad is because... everyone hates Trump
It's kind of funny how more or less Trump is hitting his absolute floor on some of these issue polling, on inflation and economy especially. The new Marquette poll said 72% of people disapprove of Trump's handling on the economy. This may shock you, but that is horrid!
September 16, 2026 at 8:40 PM
Just as a comparison, according to a YouGov poll from September 19th, 2022 said only 48% of people disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy. People can come up with all the reasons they want, but the fundamental reason why Republicans are looking bad is because... everyone hates Trump
Reposted by ElectionCord
articles.statenavigate.com/pa/state-nav...
So state navigate released their 3 state legislative polls. Dems are behind in the two state senate races, and tied in the state house races. I’ll go through them….
So state navigate released their 3 state legislative polls. Dems are behind in the two state senate races, and tied in the state house races. I’ll go through them….
State Navigate Polls Show Uphill Climb for Pennsylvania Democrats in State Senate
Democrats hit a snag in the Pennsylvania State Senate despite a surge in the congressional generic ballot.
articles.statenavigate.com
September 17, 2026 at 5:03 PM
articles.statenavigate.com/pa/state-nav...
So state navigate released their 3 state legislative polls. Dems are behind in the two state senate races, and tied in the state house races. I’ll go through them….
So state navigate released their 3 state legislative polls. Dems are behind in the two state senate races, and tied in the state house races. I’ll go through them….
Reposted by ElectionCord
These are all the 100K Districts that were under 40% turnout in the 2024 President race. Most of them are majority-minority, and these are the areas that tend to have huge swings because of the low turnout.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
September 16, 2026 at 10:47 PM
These are all the 100K Districts that were under 40% turnout in the 2024 President race. Most of them are majority-minority, and these are the areas that tend to have huge swings because of the low turnout.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
Main problem is a lot of people are ultimately selfish, particularly those who don't care that much about politics. Their bottom line is what they care about, and I don't blame them! But it leads to a lot of working-class people caring more about affordability than say, democracy itself
I know I am not the median voter. But when I watch Trump performances like the one we just endured in North Carolina, I can't escape the feeling that our problems go much deeper than "affordability" and we're whistling past the graveyard if we reduce our politics to that issue.
September 17, 2026 at 1:14 AM
Main problem is a lot of people are ultimately selfish, particularly those who don't care that much about politics. Their bottom line is what they care about, and I don't blame them! But it leads to a lot of working-class people caring more about affordability than say, democracy itself
Generic Ballot and Party ID by year (per YouGov/Economist), using Mid-September polls.
2026: R+2 Party ID, D+5 Generic Ballot (RV)
2024: D+3, D+4 (RV)
2022: D+4, D+4 (RV)
2020: D+5, D+7 (RV)
2018: D+7, D+4 (RV)
2016: D+9, D+5 (RV)
2026: R+2 Party ID, D+5 Generic Ballot (RV)
2024: D+3, D+4 (RV)
2022: D+4, D+4 (RV)
2020: D+5, D+7 (RV)
2018: D+7, D+4 (RV)
2016: D+9, D+5 (RV)
September 17, 2026 at 12:47 AM
Generic Ballot and Party ID by year (per YouGov/Economist), using Mid-September polls.
2026: R+2 Party ID, D+5 Generic Ballot (RV)
2024: D+3, D+4 (RV)
2022: D+4, D+4 (RV)
2020: D+5, D+7 (RV)
2018: D+7, D+4 (RV)
2016: D+9, D+5 (RV)
2026: R+2 Party ID, D+5 Generic Ballot (RV)
2024: D+3, D+4 (RV)
2022: D+4, D+4 (RV)
2020: D+5, D+7 (RV)
2018: D+7, D+4 (RV)
2016: D+9, D+5 (RV)
2 Caveats to this: #1, Crosstab averages are not accurate by any means, and #2 Hispanics are very hard to poll since a lot of pollsters do not do polls in Spanish but I find it interesting how since July, Hispanics have moved from D+11.4 to D+22.6
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
September 17, 2026 at 12:20 AM
2 Caveats to this: #1, Crosstab averages are not accurate by any means, and #2 Hispanics are very hard to poll since a lot of pollsters do not do polls in Spanish but I find it interesting how since July, Hispanics have moved from D+11.4 to D+22.6
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
These are all the 100K Districts that were under 40% turnout in the 2024 President race. Most of them are majority-minority, and these are the areas that tend to have huge swings because of the low turnout.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
September 16, 2026 at 10:47 PM
These are all the 100K Districts that were under 40% turnout in the 2024 President race. Most of them are majority-minority, and these are the areas that tend to have huge swings because of the low turnout.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
Give me a House district, and I'll tell you what the range of ratings are according to our Discord, along with the average of all our predictions!
September 16, 2026 at 9:41 PM
Give me a House district, and I'll tell you what the range of ratings are according to our Discord, along with the average of all our predictions!
Good/bad news: We filled the chat up, it's at 100/100 now!
BUT, do not worry, we have a Discord, which is the best election Discord server out there!
discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
BUT, do not worry, we have a Discord, which is the best election Discord server out there!
discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
September 16, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Good/bad news: We filled the chat up, it's at 100/100 now!
BUT, do not worry, we have a Discord, which is the best election Discord server out there!
discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
BUT, do not worry, we have a Discord, which is the best election Discord server out there!
discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR
Just as a comparison, according to a YouGov poll from September 19th, 2022 said only 48% of people disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy. People can come up with all the reasons they want, but the fundamental reason why Republicans are looking bad is because... everyone hates Trump
It's kind of funny how more or less Trump is hitting his absolute floor on some of these issue polling, on inflation and economy especially. The new Marquette poll said 72% of people disapprove of Trump's handling on the economy. This may shock you, but that is horrid!
September 16, 2026 at 8:40 PM
Just as a comparison, according to a YouGov poll from September 19th, 2022 said only 48% of people disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy. People can come up with all the reasons they want, but the fundamental reason why Republicans are looking bad is because... everyone hates Trump
It's kind of funny how more or less Trump is hitting his absolute floor on some of these issue polling, on inflation and economy especially. The new Marquette poll said 72% of people disapprove of Trump's handling on the economy. This may shock you, but that is horrid!
September 16, 2026 at 8:33 PM
It's kind of funny how more or less Trump is hitting his absolute floor on some of these issue polling, on inflation and economy especially. The new Marquette poll said 72% of people disapprove of Trump's handling on the economy. This may shock you, but that is horrid!
Reposted by ElectionCord
4th: New Jersey
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
September 16, 2026 at 12:34 AM
4th: New Jersey
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
Reposted by ElectionCord
Texas Senate 2018, using our 100K Districts. Talarico will more or less have to match O'Rourke's margins in Majority Hispanic areas, getting higher turnout in these areas, and doing better in the exurban areas of cities like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
September 16, 2026 at 1:58 AM
Texas Senate 2018, using our 100K Districts. Talarico will more or less have to match O'Rourke's margins in Majority Hispanic areas, getting higher turnout in these areas, and doing better in the exurban areas of cities like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
Reposted by ElectionCord
Texas Senate 2018, using our 100K Districts. Talarico will more or less have to match O'Rourke's margins in Majority Hispanic areas, getting higher turnout in these areas, and doing better in the exurban areas of cities like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
September 16, 2026 at 1:58 AM
Texas Senate 2018, using our 100K Districts. Talarico will more or less have to match O'Rourke's margins in Majority Hispanic areas, getting higher turnout in these areas, and doing better in the exurban areas of cities like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
4th: New Jersey
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
September 16, 2026 at 12:34 AM
4th: New Jersey
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
Got most of the counties we wanted, missing Bergen, Camden, Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren.
Sadly, it won't really matter, it's Safe R for me unless she drops out, Bodnar would have to basically win an R+25 seat even if she only gets 5%
FWIW, I suspect Bankhead is not actually going to do as well as polls suggest, I am just speculating here though.
👀 Despite a split on the left between independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, Republicans are spending money on #MTSen to help Kurt Alme x.com/PatrickSvite...
September 16, 2026 at 12:20 AM
Sadly, it won't really matter, it's Safe R for me unless she drops out, Bodnar would have to basically win an R+25 seat even if she only gets 5%
From @AspenMIPol on Twitter
Appears there's a Michigan debate today, and it appears El-Sayed is going to have his Ossoff moment
Appears there's a Michigan debate today, and it appears El-Sayed is going to have his Ossoff moment
September 16, 2026 at 12:12 AM
From @AspenMIPol on Twitter
Appears there's a Michigan debate today, and it appears El-Sayed is going to have his Ossoff moment
Appears there's a Michigan debate today, and it appears El-Sayed is going to have his Ossoff moment
FWIW, I suspect Bankhead is not actually going to do as well as polls suggest, I am just speculating here though.
👀 Despite a split on the left between independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, Republicans are spending money on #MTSen to help Kurt Alme x.com/PatrickSvite...
September 15, 2026 at 10:50 PM
FWIW, I suspect Bankhead is not actually going to do as well as polls suggest, I am just speculating here though.
One interesting note from the NYT Poll: 2024 Non-Voters prefer Democrats by 21% in the LV Generic Ballot. I wonder how many will end up showing up, but an interesting finding nonetheless
New Polls in the last 24 Hours:
Ipsos/Reuters:
D+7 (RV), Trump -27 Net Approval
YouGov/Economist:
D+12 (LV), Trump -18 Net Approval
NYT/Siena:
D+9 (LV), Trump -21 Net Approval
Ipsos/Reuters:
D+7 (RV), Trump -27 Net Approval
YouGov/Economist:
D+12 (LV), Trump -18 Net Approval
NYT/Siena:
D+9 (LV), Trump -21 Net Approval
September 15, 2026 at 7:01 PM
One interesting note from the NYT Poll: 2024 Non-Voters prefer Democrats by 21% in the LV Generic Ballot. I wonder how many will end up showing up, but an interesting finding nonetheless
New Polls in the last 24 Hours:
Ipsos/Reuters:
D+7 (RV), Trump -27 Net Approval
YouGov/Economist:
D+12 (LV), Trump -18 Net Approval
NYT/Siena:
D+9 (LV), Trump -21 Net Approval
Ipsos/Reuters:
D+7 (RV), Trump -27 Net Approval
YouGov/Economist:
D+12 (LV), Trump -18 Net Approval
NYT/Siena:
D+9 (LV), Trump -21 Net Approval
September 15, 2026 at 6:36 PM
New Polls in the last 24 Hours:
Ipsos/Reuters:
D+7 (RV), Trump -27 Net Approval
YouGov/Economist:
D+12 (LV), Trump -18 Net Approval
NYT/Siena:
D+9 (LV), Trump -21 Net Approval
Ipsos/Reuters:
D+7 (RV), Trump -27 Net Approval
YouGov/Economist:
D+12 (LV), Trump -18 Net Approval
NYT/Siena:
D+9 (LV), Trump -21 Net Approval
Reposted by ElectionCord
This will be the power of our live election results, you'll be able to see all this information ON E-DAY.
Angie Nixon vs. Alex Vindman is a crazy polarized coalition, but perhaps most interesting is that Nixon held up very, very well with lower-income Whites. Vindman could not win anyone outside of the rich White bloc, which is powerful in FL, but not everything.
September 15, 2026 at 2:43 AM
This will be the power of our live election results, you'll be able to see all this information ON E-DAY.