Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Pinned
European Deep Strike? Taking Shape.
Denmark’s Anthem and Joint Strike Missile order, Germany’s low-cost cruise missile program, and the Destinus-Helsing partnership.
missilematters.substack.com
🚀 On 22 October, Denmark became the first confirmed European customer for Covenant’s Anthem low-cost cruise missile, ordered alongside KONGSBERG's Joint Strike Missile.
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
Sweden has recently acquired an undisclosed number of Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles and is seriously considering the Taurus Neo, according to Swedish newspaper Dagens Industri.
I offered some comments for the piece.
www.di.se/nyheter/bekr...
I offered some comments for the piece.
www.di.se/nyheter/bekr...
Bekräftat: Superroboten nu i Sveriges arsenal
Sverige har fått leveranser av kryssningsroboten Taurus, som Saab är med och tillverkar. Di kan berätta flera detaljer om superroboten som nu är ett av…
www.di.se
November 2, 2026 at 1:34 PM
Sweden has recently acquired an undisclosed number of Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles and is seriously considering the Taurus Neo, according to Swedish newspaper Dagens Industri.
I offered some comments for the piece.
www.di.se/nyheter/bekr...
I offered some comments for the piece.
www.di.se/nyheter/bekr...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
🚀 On 22 October, Denmark became the first confirmed European customer for Covenant’s Anthem low-cost cruise missile, ordered alongside KONGSBERG's Joint Strike Missile.
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
European Deep Strike? Taking Shape.
Denmark’s Anthem and Joint Strike Missile order, Germany’s low-cost cruise missile program, and the Destinus-Helsing partnership.
missilematters.substack.com
October 25, 2026 at 10:59 AM
🚀 On 22 October, Denmark became the first confirmed European customer for Covenant’s Anthem low-cost cruise missile, ordered alongside KONGSBERG's Joint Strike Missile.
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
🚀 On 22 October, Denmark became the first confirmed European customer for Covenant’s Anthem low-cost cruise missile, ordered alongside KONGSBERG's Joint Strike Missile.
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
European Deep Strike? Taking Shape.
Denmark’s Anthem and Joint Strike Missile order, Germany’s low-cost cruise missile program, and the Destinus-Helsing partnership.
missilematters.substack.com
October 25, 2026 at 10:59 AM
🚀 On 22 October, Denmark became the first confirmed European customer for Covenant’s Anthem low-cost cruise missile, ordered alongside KONGSBERG's Joint Strike Missile.
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
missilematters.substack.com/p/european-...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
Thread. Takeaway on UKR’s early warning issue: unclear if technical or political explanation. But key point: “For the rest of this decade, UKR and EUR will remain dependent on Washington’s willingness to share what its satellites see.” Fingers crossed the Trump plague exhausts itself before then.
🚀 Yesterday, I published my latest Missile Matters post on U.S. space-based ballistic missile early warning and what the recent missing warnings in Ukraine reveal.
missilematters.substack.com/p/did-the-un...
missilematters.substack.com/p/did-the-un...
U.S. Space-Based Ballistic Missile Early Warning and Ukraine
How SBIRS detects launches, how warnings reach Ukraine, and why Europe cannot replace them before the 2030s.
missilematters.substack.com
October 19, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Thread. Takeaway on UKR’s early warning issue: unclear if technical or political explanation. But key point: “For the rest of this decade, UKR and EUR will remain dependent on Washington’s willingness to share what its satellites see.” Fingers crossed the Trump plague exhausts itself before then.
🚀 Yesterday, I published my latest Missile Matters post on U.S. space-based ballistic missile early warning and what the recent missing warnings in Ukraine reveal.
missilematters.substack.com/p/did-the-un...
missilematters.substack.com/p/did-the-un...
U.S. Space-Based Ballistic Missile Early Warning and Ukraine
How SBIRS detects launches, how warnings reach Ukraine, and why Europe cannot replace them before the 2030s.
missilematters.substack.com
October 19, 2026 at 5:59 PM
🚀 Yesterday, I published my latest Missile Matters post on U.S. space-based ballistic missile early warning and what the recent missing warnings in Ukraine reveal.
missilematters.substack.com/p/did-the-un...
missilematters.substack.com/p/did-the-un...
🚀 A year ago, I wrote about the lack of scalable mini jet engine production in Europe and the wider West.
Demand has since accelerated faster than anticipated, driven by low-cost cruise missile procurement and the need for jet-powered interceptors.
missilematters.substack.com/p/powering-s...
Demand has since accelerated faster than anticipated, driven by low-cost cruise missile procurement and the need for jet-powered interceptors.
missilematters.substack.com/p/powering-s...
Powering Scalable Mass: Western Turbojet Production in 2026
A review of suppliers, designs, and production figures in the Western turbojet engine market
missilematters.substack.com
October 11, 2026 at 9:56 AM
🚀 A year ago, I wrote about the lack of scalable mini jet engine production in Europe and the wider West.
Demand has since accelerated faster than anticipated, driven by low-cost cruise missile procurement and the need for jet-powered interceptors.
missilematters.substack.com/p/powering-s...
Demand has since accelerated faster than anticipated, driven by low-cost cruise missile procurement and the need for jet-powered interceptors.
missilematters.substack.com/p/powering-s...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
☢️ New episode of Mildly Alarmed is out!
This week, @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social sit down with @hfayet.bsky.social to discuss the impact of AI on nuclear weapons and how social media impact nuclear signalling.
Needless to say: interesting stuff!
youtu.be/S7-k61XUYvM?...
This week, @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social sit down with @hfayet.bsky.social to discuss the impact of AI on nuclear weapons and how social media impact nuclear signalling.
Needless to say: interesting stuff!
youtu.be/S7-k61XUYvM?...
Nuclear weapons and AI: How bad is it?
YouTube video by Mildly Alarmed
youtu.be
October 10, 2026 at 11:31 AM
☢️ New episode of Mildly Alarmed is out!
This week, @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social sit down with @hfayet.bsky.social to discuss the impact of AI on nuclear weapons and how social media impact nuclear signalling.
Needless to say: interesting stuff!
youtu.be/S7-k61XUYvM?...
This week, @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social sit down with @hfayet.bsky.social to discuss the impact of AI on nuclear weapons and how social media impact nuclear signalling.
Needless to say: interesting stuff!
youtu.be/S7-k61XUYvM?...
🚀 Germany has reportedly set aside almost €3.4 billion for Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon batteries in its 2027 budget planning, following an acquisition process that stalled for the better part of a year.
missilematters.substack.com/p/germanys-t...
missilematters.substack.com/p/germanys-t...
Germany's Tomahawk Procurement: Costs, Quantities, and Delivery Timelines
What €3.4 billion buys, when the missiles are likely to arrive, and what procurement rationales still exist.
missilematters.substack.com
October 4, 2026 at 8:12 AM
🚀 Germany has reportedly set aside almost €3.4 billion for Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon batteries in its 2027 budget planning, following an acquisition process that stalled for the better part of a year.
missilematters.substack.com/p/germanys-t...
missilematters.substack.com/p/germanys-t...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
🚀 With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched.
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
Can Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?
Why Ukraine's effort to interdict Russian Iskander-M launchers is difficult but not impossible
missilematters.substack.com
September 20, 2026 at 9:35 AM
🚀 With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched.
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
Whenever I'm briefed by people working in the European oil sector, their assessments of just how bad the last 12 months have been for Russia's oil sector consistently exceed those reported in public news.
And it's just going to get worse from here.
And it's just going to get worse from here.
😎🔥 SBU, together with SBS, SSO, GUR and other components of AFU, struck Moscow Oil Refinery in the Kapotnya district, which is located just 15 km from the Kremlin.
Long-range drones of SBU's Alpha flew over 500 kilometers, overcame echeloned Russian air defense and successfully struck the plant.
Long-range drones of SBU's Alpha flew over 500 kilometers, overcame echeloned Russian air defense and successfully struck the plant.
September 20, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Whenever I'm briefed by people working in the European oil sector, their assessments of just how bad the last 12 months have been for Russia's oil sector consistently exceed those reported in public news.
And it's just going to get worse from here.
And it's just going to get worse from here.
🚀 With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched.
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
Can Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?
Why Ukraine's effort to interdict Russian Iskander-M launchers is difficult but not impossible
missilematters.substack.com
September 20, 2026 at 9:35 AM
🚀 With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched.
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
But can it do so?
missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
Can #Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?, by @frhoffmann.bsky.social.
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar
Can Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?
Why Ukraine's effort to interdict Russian Iskander-M launchers is difficult but not impossible
substack.com
September 20, 2026 at 6:04 AM
Can #Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?, by @frhoffmann.bsky.social.
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar
Since early 2026, Russia has fielded a family of low-cost, turbojet-powered cruise missiles and dramatically scaled up production.
Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands.
1/3
missilematters.substack.com/p/cheap-fast...
Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands.
1/3
missilematters.substack.com/p/cheap-fast...
Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal
Profiling the systems now filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles
missilematters.substack.com
September 7, 2026 at 7:43 AM
Since early 2026, Russia has fielded a family of low-cost, turbojet-powered cruise missiles and dramatically scaled up production.
Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands.
1/3
missilematters.substack.com/p/cheap-fast...
Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands.
1/3
missilematters.substack.com/p/cheap-fast...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal. @frhoffmann.bsky.social profiles the systems that are filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles.
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal
Profiling the systems now filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles
substack.com
September 6, 2026 at 6:17 AM
Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal. @frhoffmann.bsky.social profiles the systems that are filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles.
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
US is in practically the same situation in Iran as Russia is in Ukraine. Both are losing their wars.
Latest from 'Mildly Alarmed'👇
@frhoffmann.bsky.social @kaeggen.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social
Latest from 'Mildly Alarmed'👇
@frhoffmann.bsky.social @kaeggen.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social
Ukraine’s independence day, European responses and the Iran quagmire | Mildly Alarmed
YouTube video by Mildly Alarmed
www.youtube.com
September 1, 2026 at 10:45 AM
US is in practically the same situation in Iran as Russia is in Ukraine. Both are losing their wars.
Latest from 'Mildly Alarmed'👇
@frhoffmann.bsky.social @kaeggen.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social
Latest from 'Mildly Alarmed'👇
@frhoffmann.bsky.social @kaeggen.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social
I had the pleasure of sitting down for a long interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt on ballistic missile defense challenges in Ukraine, Europe, and the Middle East.
One thing I was glad was raised is the issue of doctrine.
1/4
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
One thing I was glad was raised is the issue of doctrine.
1/4
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
Rüstung: „Wer mit ballistischen Raketen angreift, ist immer im Vorteil“
Der Luftkrieg mit Raketen stellt den Westen vor ein Dilemma: Angreifer produzieren mehr und billiger als Verteidiger, sagt Fabian Hoffmann. Im Interview skizziert der Politikwissenschaftler Lösungen.
www.handelsblatt.com
August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM
I had the pleasure of sitting down for a long interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt on ballistic missile defense challenges in Ukraine, Europe, and the Middle East.
One thing I was glad was raised is the issue of doctrine.
1/4
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
One thing I was glad was raised is the issue of doctrine.
1/4
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
🚀 Why spend 22.9 billion USD on 7,000+ Tomahawks when low-cost alternatives are available en masse?
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
High-Low Mix: The Three Tiers of Modern Missile Arsenals
High-end systems, low-cost missiles, long-range drones, and the future missile arsenals of the world
missilematters.substack.com
August 30, 2026 at 2:35 PM
🚀 Why spend 22.9 billion USD on 7,000+ Tomahawks when low-cost alternatives are available en masse?
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
🚀 Why spend 22.9 billion USD on 7,000+ Tomahawks when low-cost alternatives are available en masse?
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
High-Low Mix: The Three Tiers of Modern Missile Arsenals
High-end systems, low-cost missiles, long-range drones, and the future missile arsenals of the world
missilematters.substack.com
August 30, 2026 at 2:35 PM
🚀 Why spend 22.9 billion USD on 7,000+ Tomahawks when low-cost alternatives are available en masse?
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart.
Full analysis available here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m...
1/3
🚀 New Mildly Alarmed episode out. @alanderminna.bsky.social and I discuss one of the key topics of my recently defended PhD: How does the proliferation of long-range strike weapons to small and medium-sized states affect strategic stability?
1/3
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRLD...
1/3
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRLD...
When small states get long range missiles | Mildly Alarmed
YouTube video by Mildly Alarmed
www.youtube.com
August 21, 2026 at 8:26 PM
🚀 New Mildly Alarmed episode out. @alanderminna.bsky.social and I discuss one of the key topics of my recently defended PhD: How does the proliferation of long-range strike weapons to small and medium-sized states affect strategic stability?
1/3
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRLD...
1/3
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRLD...
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
listening to @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social, on "Mildly alarmed" on deterrence by punishment and missiles. Its a bummer, my phd was not on anything that impactful.. (does cat dads allowed dad jokes?)
August 21, 2026 at 12:26 PM
listening to @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social, on "Mildly alarmed" on deterrence by punishment and missiles. Its a bummer, my phd was not on anything that impactful.. (does cat dads allowed dad jokes?)
🚀 Ukraine's deep-strike production capacity is quoted at up to 25 billion USD for 2026. How much of it can foreign buyers access?
Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/exporting-...
1/3
Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/exporting-...
1/3
Can Ukraine Become a Missile and Long-Range Drone Exporter?
Internal, competitive, and legal barriers to Ukrainian deep-strike exports
missilematters.substack.com
August 17, 2026 at 8:25 AM
🚀 Ukraine's deep-strike production capacity is quoted at up to 25 billion USD for 2026. How much of it can foreign buyers access?
Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/exporting-...
1/3
Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/exporting-...
1/3
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
Congratulations to @frhoffmann.bsky.social who defended his PhD thesis, "The Strategic-Level Effects of Conventional Long-Range Strike Weapons: Implications for Strategic Stability", yesterday! 💐👨🎓👏
August 14, 2026 at 6:02 PM
Congratulations to @frhoffmann.bsky.social who defended his PhD thesis, "The Strategic-Level Effects of Conventional Long-Range Strike Weapons: Implications for Strategic Stability", yesterday! 💐👨🎓👏
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Ukraine's Missile Defense Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions
How Russian ballistic missiles overwhelm Ukraine's missile defenses and what can be done
missilematters.substack.com
August 8, 2026 at 7:33 PM
🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD
New episode of Mildly Alarmed is out! In this epiode we (@alanderminna.bsky.social @frhoffmann.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social) discuss some, of many, summer developments in Ukraine.
Details 👇
Details 👇
And we’re back ! In this catchup episode we discuss everything that happened in Ukraine in July - from the air campaign in both directions (our team members in Kyiv get bombed multiple nights weekly) to the government reshuffle and protests.
@lapatina.bsky.social was on fire so well worth a listen
@lapatina.bsky.social was on fire so well worth a listen
Ukraine Update: Corruption, Protests, Air War
YouTube video by Mildly Alarmed
youtu.be
August 7, 2026 at 2:42 PM
New episode of Mildly Alarmed is out! In this epiode we (@alanderminna.bsky.social @frhoffmann.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social) discuss some, of many, summer developments in Ukraine.
Details 👇
Details 👇
🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Ukraine's Missile Defense Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions
How Russian ballistic missiles overwhelm Ukraine's missile defenses and what can be done
missilematters.substack.com
August 8, 2026 at 7:33 PM
🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m...
Summary below.
1/5