Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Feb 22
Without the dark, your canvas would be blank
1-year forward 2s topping 5%
September 18, 2026 at 12:16 PM
1-year forward 2s topping 5%
10Y TIPS reopening auction today sporting the highest yield since 2008. 10s were the first TIPS tenor issued in '97 and it was an inauspicious start as the yield kept surging into Y2K
September 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM
10Y TIPS reopening auction today sporting the highest yield since 2008. 10s were the first TIPS tenor issued in '97 and it was an inauspicious start as the yield kept surging into Y2K
5% front end in a year's time
September 16, 2026 at 7:18 PM
5% front end in a year's time
Long run dot a tick higher to 3.2
September 16, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Long run dot a tick higher to 3.2
I know we're all stoked for today's rate hike but it's not too early to start obsessing about the Oct FOMC and hike odds then just before an historic midterm election. Current odds seems a bit high to me but we'll see how it responds to FOMC and presser later today
September 16, 2026 at 11:59 AM
I know we're all stoked for today's rate hike but it's not too early to start obsessing about the Oct FOMC and hike odds then just before an historic midterm election. Current odds seems a bit high to me but we'll see how it responds to FOMC and presser later today
With tomorrow's rate decision now pretty much a lock, it will be all about projections despite Warsh's best effort. With the terminal rate north of 4.60 there should be some relief unless the dots and/or presser surprise hawkishly
September 15, 2026 at 5:36 PM
With tomorrow's rate decision now pretty much a lock, it will be all about projections despite Warsh's best effort. With the terminal rate north of 4.60 there should be some relief unless the dots and/or presser surprise hawkishly
New cycle high for real 30s above 3.11%
September 15, 2026 at 8:41 AM
New cycle high for real 30s above 3.11%
Reposted by Ed Bradford
7.17% 30-year fixed mortgage
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
September 14, 2026 at 7:25 PM
7.17% 30-year fixed mortgage
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
UST 5s has been under tremendous pressure since NFP and is now the cheapest it has been on the broad curve since early 2025.
September 14, 2026 at 7:20 PM
UST 5s has been under tremendous pressure since NFP and is now the cheapest it has been on the broad curve since early 2025.
Rate path using SR3s now vs before the start of the Iran conflict
September 14, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Rate path using SR3s now vs before the start of the Iran conflict
Dramatic flattening of the forward curve while I was gone. Out to 5s on the verge of inversion.
September 14, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Dramatic flattening of the forward curve while I was gone. Out to 5s on the verge of inversion.
Hike odds next week still remain uncertain at 70% post PPI despite UST carnage
September 10, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Hike odds next week still remain uncertain at 70% post PPI despite UST carnage
Cycle high 2s (4.47) before PPI
September 10, 2026 at 12:24 PM
Cycle high 2s (4.47) before PPI
Cycle higs 2s (4.47) before PPI
September 10, 2026 at 12:23 PM
Cycle higs 2s (4.47) before PPI
We will need a real outlier for this print to matter much.
September 4, 2026 at 12:04 PM
We will need a real outlier for this print to matter much.
ISM services employment gauge under 50 again
September 3, 2026 at 2:05 PM
ISM services employment gauge under 50 again
Back to a tossup Sept FOMC after Waller's comments. Apparently it comes down to next week's inflation prints. And a reminder it's a PPI before CPI month so could see a few false moves before settling down for FOMC rate decision on the 16th
September 3, 2026 at 1:11 PM
Back to a tossup Sept FOMC after Waller's comments. Apparently it comes down to next week's inflation prints. And a reminder it's a PPI before CPI month so could see a few false moves before settling down for FOMC rate decision on the 16th
Investment grade Yield-To-Worst index is now at year-to-date highs. Some issuers may decide to back off if funding costs continue to rise
September 2, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Investment grade Yield-To-Worst index is now at year-to-date highs. Some issuers may decide to back off if funding costs continue to rise
New month. More bond sales
September 1, 2026 at 12:27 PM
New month. More bond sales
August was a refunding month with brand new 10s, 20s, and 30s so a larger extension today at 4 pm
August 31, 2026 at 7:35 PM
August was a refunding month with brand new 10s, 20s, and 30s so a larger extension today at 4 pm
August month-end duration extension always a good opportunity to set up for the deluge of Corp supply in early Sept. Not that surprised by the aggressiveness of the front running but feel it started a bit earlier than expected.
August 31, 2026 at 4:40 PM
August month-end duration extension always a good opportunity to set up for the deluge of Corp supply in early Sept. Not that surprised by the aggressiveness of the front running but feel it started a bit earlier than expected.
I think Warsh is happy with market's reaction today. While rate path repriced higher, Sept odds remain in the pre-speech tossup range
August 28, 2026 at 5:59 PM
I think Warsh is happy with market's reaction today. While rate path repriced higher, Sept odds remain in the pre-speech tossup range
Little-known fact: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh appeared as a young extra in the 1987 drama film Ironweed before his career in finance
August 28, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Little-known fact: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh appeared as a young extra in the 1987 drama film Ironweed before his career in finance
FOMC Sept hike odds have ranged between 28 and 43 percent past two weeks. Looking forward to see how committed Warsh is to not guiding the markets and whether odds remain in their current coin flip (ish) mode
August 28, 2026 at 11:04 AM
FOMC Sept hike odds have ranged between 28 and 43 percent past two weeks. Looking forward to see how committed Warsh is to not guiding the markets and whether odds remain in their current coin flip (ish) mode
More rate volatility is inevitable with no forward guidance. And higher vol means higher term premium. Back end of the UST curve reflects this new reality.
August 27, 2026 at 11:08 AM
More rate volatility is inevitable with no forward guidance. And higher vol means higher term premium. Back end of the UST curve reflects this new reality.