Strength In Numbers
@gelliottmorris.skystack.xyz
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion, and elections. A place for thinking smarter with data.
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Why polls might be underestimating *Democrats*, not Republicans • Potential bias in how voters recall voting in 2024 costs Democrats about a point of support. Surveys of registered voters might also underestimate the Democratic turnout advantage.
Why polls might be underestimating *Democrats*, not Republicans
Potential bias in how voters recall voting in 2024 costs Democrats about a point of support. Surveys of registered voters might also underestimate the Democratic turnout advantage.
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 15, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Why polls might be underestimating *Democrats*, not Republicans • Potential bias in how voters recall voting in 2024 costs Democrats about a point of support. Surveys of registered voters might also underestimate the Democratic turnout advantage.
If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment • Plus, Democrats hit +7 in our generic ballot average for the first time this cycle. Your weekly political data roundup for September 13, 2026.
If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment
Plus, Democrats hit +7 in our generic ballot average for the first time this cycle. Your weekly political data roundup for September 13, 2026.
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 14, 2026 at 1:24 AM
If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment • Plus, Democrats hit +7 in our generic ballot average for the first time this cycle. Your weekly political data roundup for September 13, 2026.
Republicans who think "Trumpapalooza" will work misunderstand why Trump won in 2024 • Disaffected Trump voters like the man less than motivated MAGA partisans
Republicans who think "Trumpapalooza" will work misunderstand why Trump won in 2024
Disaffected Trump voters like the man less than motivated MAGA partisans
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 11, 2026 at 1:24 AM
Republicans who think "Trumpapalooza" will work misunderstand why Trump won in 2024 • Disaffected Trump voters like the man less than motivated MAGA partisans
Why the Republicans’ “Trumpapalooza" won't fix the party's turnout problem • The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t think he’s focused on affordability
Why the Republicans’ “Trumpapalooza" won't fix the party's turnout problem
The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t think he’s focused on affordability
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 10, 2026 at 4:28 AM
Why the Republicans’ “Trumpapalooza" won't fix the party's turnout problem • The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t think he’s focused on affordability
All polls are models now • Traditional polling is dead. Pollsters need to do a better job communicating about all the ways potential error enters their work.
All polls are models now
Traditional polling is dead. Pollsters need to do a better job communicating about all the ways potential error enters their work.
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 9, 2026 at 7:28 PM
All polls are models now • Traditional polling is dead. Pollsters need to do a better job communicating about all the ways potential error enters their work.
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026 • For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying off algorithmic social media in 2026.
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026
For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying off algorithmic social media in 2026.
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 6, 2026 at 10:24 PM
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026 • For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying off algorithmic social media in 2026.
The “priorities gap” and the midterms • Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
The “priorities gap” and the midterms
Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 4, 2026 at 7:24 PM
The “priorities gap” and the midterms • Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms • From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms
From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 3, 2026 at 10:24 PM
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms • From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more • 81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they write leadership should "put regular people first”
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more
81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they write leadership should "put regular people first”
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 2, 2026 at 4:24 PM
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more • 81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they write leadership should "put regular people first”
One out of six Trump voters says they wouldn't vote for him again • Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.
One out of six Trump voters says they wouldn't vote for him again
Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 30, 2026 at 7:24 PM
One out of six Trump voters says they wouldn't vote for him again • Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.
Two big questions about the polls right now • Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
Two big questions about the polls right now
Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 28, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Two big questions about the polls right now • Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi • Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi
Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 27, 2026 at 10:24 PM
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi • Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security • The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)
Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security
The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 26, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security • The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)
An updated look at Trump's approval rating in every neighborhood • Plus, what words voters use to describe the president and how thats changed over time. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.
An updated look at Trump's approval rating in every neighborhood
Plus, what words voters use to describe the president and how thats changed over time. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 23, 2026 at 10:24 PM
An updated look at Trump's approval rating in every neighborhood • Plus, what words voters use to describe the president and how thats changed over time. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again? • It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again?
It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 21, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again? • It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe • We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 20, 2026 at 10:24 PM
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe • We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30? • This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30?
This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 18, 2026 at 10:24 PM
What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30? • This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan? • The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we think.
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan?
The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we think.
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 18, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan? • The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we think.
KILL THE VAMPIRES • A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
KILL THE VAMPIRES
A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 14, 2026 at 4:23 PM
KILL THE VAMPIRES • A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates • Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving defection from "establishment" picks
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates
Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving defection from "establishment" picks
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 14, 2026 at 1:24 PM
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates • Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving defection from "establishment" picks
Can we trust the polls in 2026? • Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way
Can we trust the polls in 2026?
Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 13, 2026 at 10:23 PM
Can we trust the polls in 2026? • Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way
I re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong. • What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
I re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.
What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 13, 2026 at 4:23 PM
I re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong. • What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average • And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time
Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average
And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 12, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average • And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time
Voters say the political system needs big changes — and that's driving Democratic gains for 2026 • Among moderates and conservatives who say they want "major, disruptive change" in politics, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 50 points
Voters say the political system needs big changes — and that's driving Democratic gains for 2026
Among moderates and conservatives who say they want "major, disruptive change" in politics, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 50 points
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 11, 2026 at 7:28 PM
Voters say the political system needs big changes — and that's driving Democratic gains for 2026 • Among moderates and conservatives who say they want "major, disruptive change" in politics, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 50 points
Deep Dive episode: What if our leaders are actually more responsive to public opinion than we think? • I sit down with Peter Enns, a political scientist at Cornell University, whose new research offers an optimistic view of democracy and representation
Deep Dive episode: What if our leaders are actually more responsive to public opinion than we think?
I sit down with Peter Enns, a political scientist at Cornell University, whose new research offers an optimistic view of democracy and representation
www.gelliottmorris.com
August 10, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Deep Dive episode: What if our leaders are actually more responsive to public opinion than we think? • I sit down with Peter Enns, a political scientist at Cornell University, whose new research offers an optimistic view of democracy and representation