Gust23
@gust2319.bsky.social
Hello! I like talking about politics on the internet.
Update: What I wrote still essentially applies, but if anything the gap will end up being smaller than it initially looked like. Lula's vote share will increase by a couple of percentages, while Bolsonaro's will decrease.
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October 4, 2026 at 10:05 PM
Update: What I wrote still essentially applies, but if anything the gap will end up being smaller than it initially looked like. Lula's vote share will increase by a couple of percentages, while Bolsonaro's will decrease.
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In the Brazillian election, with 10% of electoral sections counted, Flavio Bolsonaro is clearly overperforming the expectations.
According to my calculations, he will not win outright in the first round, but will get more votes than Lula and be the favorite in the second round.
According to my calculations, he will not win outright in the first round, but will get more votes than Lula and be the favorite in the second round.
October 4, 2026 at 9:00 PM
In the Brazillian election, with 10% of electoral sections counted, Flavio Bolsonaro is clearly overperforming the expectations.
According to my calculations, he will not win outright in the first round, but will get more votes than Lula and be the favorite in the second round.
According to my calculations, he will not win outright in the first round, but will get more votes than Lula and be the favorite in the second round.
In the Latvian election that was held yesterday, the last seat in the Riga constituency was decided by just 7 votes(!) Had PROGRESĪVIE (P) gotten 7 fewer seats, AS would have won the last seat instead. A good example of how every single vote sometimes matters in an election.
October 4, 2026 at 5:52 PM
In the Latvian election that was held yesterday, the last seat in the Riga constituency was decided by just 7 votes(!) Had PROGRESĪVIE (P) gotten 7 fewer seats, AS would have won the last seat instead. A good example of how every single vote sometimes matters in an election.
Update on the Swedish election: There apparently now is a police investigation into suspected election fraud in the municipality of Borlänge (Dalarna county), specifically about incidents of people improperly trying to influence voters during voting.
September 21, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Update on the Swedish election: There apparently now is a police investigation into suspected election fraud in the municipality of Borlänge (Dalarna county), specifically about incidents of people improperly trying to influence voters during voting.
Update on the Swedish election: As we speak, the late-arriving votes are being counted and this is the current seat calculation. The 349th seat is hovering between S and SD. However, it seems likely that either V or M will ultimately win it once all votes are counted.
September 16, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Update on the Swedish election: As we speak, the late-arriving votes are being counted and this is the current seat calculation. The 349th seat is hovering between S and SD. However, it seems likely that either V or M will ultimately win it once all votes are counted.
These numbers here, which are the breakdown of late-arriving ("Wednesday votes) and regular vote results of the 2022 Swedish election, illustrate why I think the outcome will be a 175 to 174 win for the red bloc.
The red bloc actually slightly won those votes in 2022.
The red bloc actually slightly won those votes in 2022.
September 14, 2026 at 9:06 PM
These numbers here, which are the breakdown of late-arriving ("Wednesday votes) and regular vote results of the 2022 Swedish election, illustrate why I think the outcome will be a 175 to 174 win for the red bloc.
The red bloc actually slightly won those votes in 2022.
The red bloc actually slightly won those votes in 2022.
Did a map of the Swedish election.
September 14, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Did a map of the Swedish election.
Update on the Swedish election: The projection (shown here, from SVT) has stabilized and will stay at around the current numbers: 175 to 174 for the red bloc, and a 0.4% vote share lead.
However, it will remain so close that we will only know for sure who won on Wednesday.
However, it will remain so close that we will only know for sure who won on Wednesday.
September 13, 2026 at 9:54 PM
Update on the Swedish election: The projection (shown here, from SVT) has stabilized and will stay at around the current numbers: 175 to 174 for the red bloc, and a 0.4% vote share lead.
However, it will remain so close that we will only know for sure who won on Wednesday.
However, it will remain so close that we will only know for sure who won on Wednesday.
Before the Swedish election, there was a lot of talk on whether Allard and his left-conservative Örebropartiet could enter the Riksdag on a constituency seat, something that required 12%.
It is now clear that the party did not come close to a seat. Others are at 5% in total.
It is now clear that the party did not come close to a seat. Others are at 5% in total.
September 13, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Before the Swedish election, there was a lot of talk on whether Allard and his left-conservative Örebropartiet could enter the Riksdag on a constituency seat, something that required 12%.
It is now clear that the party did not come close to a seat. Others are at 5% in total.
It is now clear that the party did not come close to a seat. Others are at 5% in total.
Update on the Swedish election: I think the red bloc opposition, led by the Social Democrats will end up winning a majority of seats, 175 to 174. I think one seat will move from SD to M, but otherwise the seat totals of each party should remain the same as right now.
September 13, 2026 at 9:18 PM
Update on the Swedish election: I think the red bloc opposition, led by the Social Democrats will end up winning a majority of seats, 175 to 174. I think one seat will move from SD to M, but otherwise the seat totals of each party should remain the same as right now.
Update on the Swedish election: To illustrate just how close everything is, and how huge the mere rounding of quotients to seats under Sainte-Laguë's method can be, here is the seat calculation under the current projection from SVT. 175 to 174 for the red bloc opposition.
September 13, 2026 at 8:41 PM
Update on the Swedish election: To illustrate just how close everything is, and how huge the mere rounding of quotients to seats under Sainte-Laguë's method can be, here is the seat calculation under the current projection from SVT. 175 to 174 for the red bloc opposition.
Quick thoughts on the Swedish election: The red bloc opposition is leading by 175 to 174 seats. And my own projection and that used by SVT indicates the final result will also be the same by bloc (but with some changes by parties).
I think the red bloc wins, but it is so close.
I think the red bloc wins, but it is so close.
September 13, 2026 at 8:19 PM
Quick thoughts on the Swedish election: The red bloc opposition is leading by 175 to 174 seats. And my own projection and that used by SVT indicates the final result will also be the same by bloc (but with some changes by parties).
I think the red bloc wins, but it is so close.
I think the red bloc wins, but it is so close.
Update on the Swedish election: Contrary to the exit polls, the election is going to be VERY close. A projection from SVT has the blue bloc currently winning by 175 to 174 seats. But it is much too early to know who wins as it is so close.
September 13, 2026 at 7:51 PM
Update on the Swedish election: Contrary to the exit polls, the election is going to be VERY close. A projection from SVT has the blue bloc currently winning by 175 to 174 seats. But it is much too early to know who wins as it is so close.
Swedish election: Looking at the earliest numbers, I think the red bloc is likeliest to win (as the exit poll indicates), but I wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming projections indicates the election is even closer than the exit polls indicated.
I think. I could be wrong here.
I think. I could be wrong here.
September 13, 2026 at 7:05 PM
Swedish election: Looking at the earliest numbers, I think the red bloc is likeliest to win (as the exit poll indicates), but I wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming projections indicates the election is even closer than the exit polls indicated.
I think. I could be wrong here.
I think. I could be wrong here.
The Swedish election is happening today. Here are some links to follow results:
Official results website: resultat.val.se
SVT and TV4 will each publish an exit poll once polls close at 20:00 CEST.
SVT: www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
TV4: www.tv4.se/valet-2026
Official results website: resultat.val.se
SVT and TV4 will each publish an exit poll once polls close at 20:00 CEST.
SVT: www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
TV4: www.tv4.se/valet-2026
September 13, 2026 at 5:29 PM
The Swedish election is happening today. Here are some links to follow results:
Official results website: resultat.val.se
SVT and TV4 will each publish an exit poll once polls close at 20:00 CEST.
SVT: www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
TV4: www.tv4.se/valet-2026
Official results website: resultat.val.se
SVT and TV4 will each publish an exit poll once polls close at 20:00 CEST.
SVT: www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
TV4: www.tv4.se/valet-2026
With the Swedish election taking place tomorrow, here is my projection of how it might go, based on the opinion polls that have been published.
The red bloc opposition is likely to win, but it is so close that it could swing the other way, allowing Kristersson to stay in office.
The red bloc opposition is likely to win, but it is so close that it could swing the other way, allowing Kristersson to stay in office.
September 12, 2026 at 3:47 PM
With the Swedish election taking place tomorrow, here is my projection of how it might go, based on the opinion polls that have been published.
The red bloc opposition is likely to win, but it is so close that it could swing the other way, allowing Kristersson to stay in office.
The red bloc opposition is likely to win, but it is so close that it could swing the other way, allowing Kristersson to stay in office.
I wanted to show a Danish opinioon poll that was just published today, because it's probably the most shocking poll so far in the electoral term:
- Worst poll for V ever
- Worst for F since 2022
- Best for the O since 2019
- Best for C since 2022
- Best for Æ since the election
- Worst poll for V ever
- Worst for F since 2022
- Best for the O since 2019
- Best for C since 2022
- Best for Æ since the election
September 11, 2026 at 4:18 PM
I wanted to show a Danish opinioon poll that was just published today, because it's probably the most shocking poll so far in the electoral term:
- Worst poll for V ever
- Worst for F since 2022
- Best for the O since 2019
- Best for C since 2022
- Best for Æ since the election
- Worst poll for V ever
- Worst for F since 2022
- Best for the O since 2019
- Best for C since 2022
- Best for Æ since the election
Did a map of the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The full prelimnary result has just been reported.
September 7, 2026 at 1:06 AM
Did a map of the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The full prelimnary result has just been reported.
To illustrate how crazy the effect of tactical voting is: Before August this year, Linke was polling above the combined vote shares of the SPD and the Greens. Now? It is receiving fewer votes than both parties individually.
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If anyone wants to see a clear example of German tactical voting, take a look at the Halle III constituency in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.
The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.
The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.
September 6, 2026 at 8:18 PM
To illustrate how crazy the effect of tactical voting is: Before August this year, Linke was polling above the combined vote shares of the SPD and the Greens. Now? It is receiving fewer votes than both parties individually.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
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In the Saxony-Anhalt state election, a possibility they are discussing on German TV is that the election of the Minister-President goes to a third round, where if the BSW abstains, the CDU Minister-President, Sven Schulze, could be re-elected based on the current projections.
September 6, 2026 at 7:17 PM
In the Saxony-Anhalt state election, a possibility they are discussing on German TV is that the election of the Minister-President goes to a third round, where if the BSW abstains, the CDU Minister-President, Sven Schulze, could be re-elected based on the current projections.
If anyone wants to see a clear example of German tactical voting, take a look at the Halle III constituency in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.
The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.
The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.
September 6, 2026 at 6:41 PM
If anyone wants to see a clear example of German tactical voting, take a look at the Halle III constituency in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.
The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.
The Greens do way better on the party vote (left) than the constituency vote. Clearly, this is Linke voters tactically voting for it.
In the latest projection from Forschnungsgruppe Wahlen, the AfD is 0.3% from winning an absolute majority of seats.
Since it might be relevant, note there is a rule that a party winning a majority of votes above the threshold will win a majority of seats.
Since it might be relevant, note there is a rule that a party winning a majority of votes above the threshold will win a majority of seats.
September 6, 2026 at 5:32 PM
In the latest projection from Forschnungsgruppe Wahlen, the AfD is 0.3% from winning an absolute majority of seats.
Since it might be relevant, note there is a rule that a party winning a majority of votes above the threshold will win a majority of seats.
Since it might be relevant, note there is a rule that a party winning a majority of votes above the threshold will win a majority of seats.
Saxony-Anhalt state election: Based on the current reported figures I think the AfD plausibly could get above 45% and will certainly approach it, which would be very close to a majority of seats.
I also think the BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold, even as it will be close.
I also think the BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold, even as it will be close.
September 6, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Saxony-Anhalt state election: Based on the current reported figures I think the AfD plausibly could get above 45% and will certainly approach it, which would be very close to a majority of seats.
I also think the BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold, even as it will be close.
I also think the BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold, even as it will be close.
Now that the final poll ahead of the election has been published, I did a projection of the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD will win its second ever German state election.
It is however likely that the landtag would re-elect incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU).
It is however likely that the landtag would re-elect incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU).
September 3, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Now that the final poll ahead of the election has been published, I did a projection of the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD will win its second ever German state election.
It is however likely that the landtag would re-elect incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU).
It is however likely that the landtag would re-elect incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU).
With the full result in both Reykjavik north and Reykjavik south reported, it can now be called that the no side will end up with more votes.
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I think the Icelandic referendum will end in a no, given that the results for yes are consistently underperforming the benchmarks ever so slightly.
August 30, 2026 at 2:54 AM
With the full result in both Reykjavik north and Reykjavik south reported, it can now be called that the no side will end up with more votes.
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