Half-Brick McCurdy
@halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social
A Scot in awe of Ukraine's courage and aghast at the West's turn to the Far-Right
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Our latest forecast for #Russia 2026-28 is out! Basically our view is unchanged from the spring: Growth remains anemic, mostly driven by war-related industries. Other sectors stagnate or contract. 1/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
www.bofit.fi/en/bofit/new...
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
www.bofit.fi/en/bofit/new...
BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028 / 2
The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) is an internationally renowned research institute specialising in emerging economies and global economic developments.
www.bofit.fi
October 5, 2026 at 8:11 AM
Our latest forecast for #Russia 2026-28 is out! Basically our view is unchanged from the spring: Growth remains anemic, mostly driven by war-related industries. Other sectors stagnate or contract. 1/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
www.bofit.fi/en/bofit/new...
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
www.bofit.fi/en/bofit/new...
Russia has introduced differentiated mortgage subsidies after all, so bad luck housebuilders. Big families still get big subsidies, but the vast majority (the Russian fertility rate is 1.37) not so much, while those in Moscow or St Petersburg (c.41% of all new mortgages in August) get even less.
October 3, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Russia has introduced differentiated mortgage subsidies after all, so bad luck housebuilders. Big families still get big subsidies, but the vast majority (the Russian fertility rate is 1.37) not so much, while those in Moscow or St Petersburg (c.41% of all new mortgages in August) get even less.
Russian mortgages: No relief for housebuilders after demand for new mortgages remained muted in August. Indeed, market rate borrowing fell compared to July, an argument against the proposed introduction of differentiated mortgage subsidies.
Despite repeated rate cuts this year, August also saw a
Despite repeated rate cuts this year, August also saw a
October 1, 2026 at 3:42 PM
Russian mortgages: No relief for housebuilders after demand for new mortgages remained muted in August. Indeed, market rate borrowing fell compared to July, an argument against the proposed introduction of differentiated mortgage subsidies.
Despite repeated rate cuts this year, August also saw a
Despite repeated rate cuts this year, August also saw a
I reckon an obvious caveat here, beyond the polite smiles and hand shakes, is whether anyone attending takes Elbridge Colby seriously given the whole "he's a buffoon" thing*.
Pentagon excludes key allies from NATO meeting
Some of Europe’s biggest defense spenders — and U.S. allies — were not invited to a Pentagon-led meeting to discuss the alliance.
www.politico.com
October 1, 2026 at 9:13 AM
I reckon an obvious caveat here, beyond the polite smiles and hand shakes, is whether anyone attending takes Elbridge Colby seriously given the whole "he's a buffoon" thing*.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Splitting NATO is just another objective shared by the Kremlin and the current US administration.
www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
October 1, 2026 at 5:42 AM
Splitting NATO is just another objective shared by the Kremlin and the current US administration.
www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
Immorality aside, it's the consistency of American policy that's most notable, the ongoing efforts to push and penalise Ukraine while striving to normalise Russia
Trump faces bipartisan pushback over possible Russia sanctions relief
"Sanctions relief will embolden Russia and prolong the war," a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers said.
kyivindependent.com
September 30, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Immorality aside, it's the consistency of American policy that's most notable, the ongoing efforts to push and penalise Ukraine while striving to normalise Russia
2 headlines highlighting the centrality of economic data to Russia’s info war, Reuters depicts an ever larger economic juggernaut*, the Kyiv Independent, not so much
September 29, 2026 at 7:05 AM
2 headlines highlighting the centrality of economic data to Russia’s info war, Reuters depicts an ever larger economic juggernaut*, the Kyiv Independent, not so much
US military official: Preposterous!
Also US military official: Who we murdering in the Caribbean tonight boys?
Also also US military official: You say racist, misogynist, ideological purge of the US military's senior ranks, I say career opportunities!
Also also also US military official: "Iran"
Also US military official: Who we murdering in the Caribbean tonight boys?
Also also US military official: You say racist, misogynist, ideological purge of the US military's senior ranks, I say career opportunities!
Also also also US military official: "Iran"
Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times he considered a U.S. invasion scenario, a concept that has unsettled some Canadians. A U.S. military official deemed the idea 'preposterous.' #Canada #News
Carney's comments about a possible U.S. invasion get Canadians thinking
Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times he considered a U.S. invasion scenario, a concept...
www.youtube.com
September 26, 2026 at 6:27 PM
US military official: Preposterous!
Also US military official: Who we murdering in the Caribbean tonight boys?
Also also US military official: You say racist, misogynist, ideological purge of the US military's senior ranks, I say career opportunities!
Also also also US military official: "Iran"
Also US military official: Who we murdering in the Caribbean tonight boys?
Also also US military official: You say racist, misogynist, ideological purge of the US military's senior ranks, I say career opportunities!
Also also also US military official: "Iran"
Link to trailer below
September 26, 2026 at 10:08 AM
Link to trailer below
All those (mostly American) security and international relations experts who rabbitted on about the CIA bloke's surprise trip to Moscow being so he could have stern words with Putin about this, that and/or the other, when instead the US is on a sustained campaign to normalize Russia *
⚡️Putin to be invited to G20 Summit in Miami, Rubio reveals
Putin to be invited to G20 Summit in Miami, Rubio reveals
Editor's note: This is a developing story
The U.S. will invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 Summit in Miami this December, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sept. 23, followi...
kyivindependent.com
September 23, 2026 at 4:27 PM
All those (mostly American) security and international relations experts who rabbitted on about the CIA bloke's surprise trip to Moscow being so he could have stern words with Putin about this, that and/or the other, when instead the US is on a sustained campaign to normalize Russia *
"Donald Trump – during a press conference at the UN with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – said that Keir Starmer’s rhetoric had been “too tough” towards Moscow and that London “needs to be a little bit careful”. Downing Street pushed back on the US president’s remarks"
New UK agency to fight ‘information warfare’ from likes of Russia, Burnham tells UN
PM aims to ‘stem poisonous tide’ of disinformation and deepfakes with National Centre for Information Defence
www.theguardian.com
September 23, 2026 at 6:51 AM
"Donald Trump – during a press conference at the UN with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – said that Keir Starmer’s rhetoric had been “too tough” towards Moscow and that London “needs to be a little bit careful”. Downing Street pushed back on the US president’s remarks"
It's noticeable that Russian bank liquidity is being discussed publicly. While "uneven distribution" is referenced, you'd expect every bank to participate in repo auctions to avoid any one appearing weak. Also, jings!
The Russian Central Bank has held today the largest repo auction for banks in its history. 7 trillion rubles. When the weekly repos started they were supposed to be temporary things, now it's something the banking sector can't do without. Liquidity is definitely a problem.
September 22, 2026 at 5:43 PM
It's noticeable that Russian bank liquidity is being discussed publicly. While "uneven distribution" is referenced, you'd expect every bank to participate in repo auctions to avoid any one appearing weak. Also, jings!
An irony here is that opposition to data centres could prevent/limit the oversupply, that would destroy the residual values this article notes are now being guaranteed to secure cheap loans.
As spending outstrips profits companies are turning to off balance sheet borrowing structures to maintain investment grade credit ratings…MS estimates $3.1trn in commitments…I don’t mean to be an old fogie but this sounds awfully familiar 🤔
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Big Tech uses guarantees to keep $300bn of AI exposure off balance sheets
Wall Street finds new way to turn tech giants’ credit strength into cheaper funding for AI build-out
giftarticle.ft.com
September 22, 2026 at 8:07 AM
An irony here is that opposition to data centres could prevent/limit the oversupply, that would destroy the residual values this article notes are now being guaranteed to secure cheap loans.
Helpful analysis. Documents a clear balloon squeezing effect with the shadow fleet becoming an ever larger and more institutionalised "parallel trading system". But, the author mostly presents this as a single West vs the Rest despite the significant policy differences between the US and EU/UK
After claiming strikes on Riyadh and an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Houthis' gains around Bab Al-Mandeb are exposing different visions of Gulf security - as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Pakistan and the US weigh their responses. Read the latest RUSI Commentary from Burcu Ozcelik.
The Battle for Bab Al-Mandeb is Becoming a Contest for Regional Power
Houthi gains around Bab Al-Mandeb have exposed rival visions of Gulf security, as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Pakistan and the US weigh competing responses.
www.rusi.org
September 21, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Helpful analysis. Documents a clear balloon squeezing effect with the shadow fleet becoming an ever larger and more institutionalised "parallel trading system". But, the author mostly presents this as a single West vs the Rest despite the significant policy differences between the US and EU/UK
Despite repeated rate cuts, the credit quality of MKB’s corporate loan book * continued to deteriorate in Q2 2026. Distressed assets recorded in the Bank's quarterly IFRS accounts increased from 23% in March to 28% in June.
September 21, 2026 at 8:49 AM
Despite repeated rate cuts, the credit quality of MKB’s corporate loan book * continued to deteriorate in Q2 2026. Distressed assets recorded in the Bank's quarterly IFRS accounts increased from 23% in March to 28% in June.
Sberbank press release on planned mortgage backed securitizations makes clear these will be comparable to i.e. compete with OFZs and come with a long-term commitment to pay 15.5% or 16% p.a., less than the current 16.4% yield on a Russian 10 yr govt bond, but more than the Russian govt wants to pay.
September 21, 2026 at 8:14 AM
Sberbank press release on planned mortgage backed securitizations makes clear these will be comparable to i.e. compete with OFZs and come with a long-term commitment to pay 15.5% or 16% p.a., less than the current 16.4% yield on a Russian 10 yr govt bond, but more than the Russian govt wants to pay.
America: Fighting to save the UK and Europe from civilizational erasure
Also America: How to marital rape
Also America: How to marital rape
WATCH: Turning Point USA’s New ‘Wife School’ Teaches Women How to Be Biblically Submissive Wives christiannightmares.substack.com/p/turning-po...
September 19, 2026 at 4:08 PM
America: Fighting to save the UK and Europe from civilizational erasure
Also America: How to marital rape
Also America: How to marital rape
Ignoramus American president aside, this is the uncut dumb that informs actual US trade policy and influences trade negotiations, because the current US administration takes it seriously enough to inflict on other nations.
September 18, 2026 at 6:38 PM
Ignoramus American president aside, this is the uncut dumb that informs actual US trade policy and influences trade negotiations, because the current US administration takes it seriously enough to inflict on other nations.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Osman says Russian forces in Dnipro-side areas of Kherson Oblast are forcibly recruiting men into “DPR” and “LPR” units. He claims residents are isolated, denied aid and prevented from leaving, with those attempting to escape reportedly killed by gunfire or drones.
September 18, 2026 at 5:09 AM
Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Osman says Russian forces in Dnipro-side areas of Kherson Oblast are forcibly recruiting men into “DPR” and “LPR” units. He claims residents are isolated, denied aid and prevented from leaving, with those attempting to escape reportedly killed by gunfire or drones.
Fun fact 1: The EU is the largest importer of Russian gas. The US Russia sanctions bill, empowers Trump to sanction the largest importers of Russian oil and gas.
Fun fact 2: The US/Canada dispute keeps getting presented in terms of trade, not the American assault on Canada's sovereignty that it is.
Fun fact 2: The US/Canada dispute keeps getting presented in terms of trade, not the American assault on Canada's sovereignty that it is.
Trump threatens to cut off all trade with Europe if Canada associates closer with the EU
September 17, 2026 at 9:59 AM
Fun fact 1: The EU is the largest importer of Russian gas. The US Russia sanctions bill, empowers Trump to sanction the largest importers of Russian oil and gas.
Fun fact 2: The US/Canada dispute keeps getting presented in terms of trade, not the American assault on Canada's sovereignty that it is.
Fun fact 2: The US/Canada dispute keeps getting presented in terms of trade, not the American assault on Canada's sovereignty that it is.
"NATO" (aka Europe/UK): Shoots down drone over Lithuania that most likely entered from Belarus
US: Tells US Banks to unsanction Belarus *
US: Tells US Banks to unsanction Belarus *
Trump Administration Tells Banks to Unsanction Belarus, Envoy Says
Minsk has been under decades of Western sanctions for human rights violations and later for aiding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
www.kyivpost.com
September 15, 2026 at 5:42 PM
"NATO" (aka Europe/UK): Shoots down drone over Lithuania that most likely entered from Belarus
US: Tells US Banks to unsanction Belarus *
US: Tells US Banks to unsanction Belarus *
Offers an alternative form of political reporting. Instead of taking each outburst at face value then working thru its implications, categorize/count them, then discuss variations over time. Heck, you could even make forecasts and ask questions e.g. are we due single digit victory claims this month?
Trump has only declared victory in the Iran war once this month. Concerning.
September 15, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Offers an alternative form of political reporting. Instead of taking each outburst at face value then working thru its implications, categorize/count them, then discuss variations over time. Heck, you could even make forecasts and ask questions e.g. are we due single digit victory claims this month?
The US (and the EU) sanctioned VTB Bank in 2022 *. It would be helpful if the Americans parked their rah-rah bullshit and explained what's new/the limitations of the pre-existing measures.
❗️The US imposed Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank, accusing Russia's second-largest lender of involvement in Iranian sanctions evasion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington will continue targeting those providing financial, material or technological support to Tehran. #Russia
September 14, 2026 at 8:24 PM
The US (and the EU) sanctioned VTB Bank in 2022 *. It would be helpful if the Americans parked their rah-rah bullshit and explained what's new/the limitations of the pre-existing measures.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
I think we're at the point where we can incredibly comfortably say that your attitude towards Reform, Restore, MAGA, the AfD etc is how you'd have responded to fascism in the 1930s
September 8, 2026 at 9:36 AM
I think we're at the point where we can incredibly comfortably say that your attitude towards Reform, Restore, MAGA, the AfD etc is how you'd have responded to fascism in the 1930s