Secession anticipator
@intolerablesit.bsky.social
Pinned
This model is projecting at least a 0.5% chance of every outcome from Ds winning 268 seats to Ds winning only 208. This is unhelpful if you're not willing to make it a narrower confidence interval
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: U.S. House
🟦 Democrats: 75%
🟥 Republicans: 25%
Democrats average 234 seats across 1 million simulations and are at least slight favorites in 21 Republican-held seats:
🟦 Democrats: 75%
🟥 Republicans: 25%
Democrats average 234 seats across 1 million simulations and are at least slight favorites in 21 Republican-held seats:
October 2, 2026 at 1:01 AM
This model is projecting at least a 0.5% chance of every outcome from Ds winning 268 seats to Ds winning only 208. This is unhelpful if you're not willing to make it a narrower confidence interval
If the second thing happened you wouldn't need to do the first thing?
But as others have said Gaza won't matter, they will find a different thing to complain about. They should be ignored or preferably actually called out as wreckers, candidates are way too scared to do that
But as others have said Gaza won't matter, they will find a different thing to complain about. They should be ignored or preferably actually called out as wreckers, candidates are way too scared to do that
October 1, 2026 at 11:46 PM
If the second thing happened you wouldn't need to do the first thing?
But as others have said Gaza won't matter, they will find a different thing to complain about. They should be ignored or preferably actually called out as wreckers, candidates are way too scared to do that
But as others have said Gaza won't matter, they will find a different thing to complain about. They should be ignored or preferably actually called out as wreckers, candidates are way too scared to do that
Reposted by Secession anticipator
yeah you're a fucking liar, i was never friends with you dumbass
October 1, 2026 at 9:45 PM
yeah you're a fucking liar, i was never friends with you dumbass
Reposted by Secession anticipator
It's crazy that so many people who are living paycheck to paycheck would turn down a life-changing amount of money like that
September 30, 2026 at 7:55 PM
It's crazy that so many people who are living paycheck to paycheck would turn down a life-changing amount of money like that
Reposted by Secession anticipator
"Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Watergate and also started the most unpopular war since Vietnam, driving up cost of living and gas, on top of tariffs, causing people to vote against his party in record numbers" vs "nuh uh"
October 1, 2026 at 7:21 PM
"Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Watergate and also started the most unpopular war since Vietnam, driving up cost of living and gas, on top of tariffs, causing people to vote against his party in record numbers" vs "nuh uh"
Oh I like this part where the interviewer tries like they always do to bail him out and change the subject and he keeps ranting.
October 1, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Oh I like this part where the interviewer tries like they always do to bail him out and change the subject and he keeps ranting.
Reposted by Secession anticipator
Alright man, you sure showed me.
October 1, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Alright man, you sure showed me.
"pro Palestine protestors are less committed and more scared of violence than will stancil and wine moms at No Kings protests" isn't really the line I'd be going with but there isn't much other explanation I suppose
October 1, 2026 at 4:29 PM
"pro Palestine protestors are less committed and more scared of violence than will stancil and wine moms at No Kings protests" isn't really the line I'd be going with but there isn't much other explanation I suppose
Everyone should watch Mr death by Errol Morris, which addressed this almost thirty years ago
The Tennessee governor called off the execution of a murderer after she inexplicably survived two rounds of lethal injections.
MAGA Governor Finally Calls Off Botched Female Execution
The politician, already feeling heat for a previous failed execution, has now paused state killings for the rest of 2026.
www.thedailybeast.com
October 1, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Everyone should watch Mr death by Errol Morris, which addressed this almost thirty years ago
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Holocaust Harris doing a girlboss with Liz Cheney was the subject of more prolonged outrage from the Anti-War People than Trump the Peace President leading us into war with Iran.
Saying this will get you yelled at and gaslit about how our moral betters have shown total consistency on this issue.
Saying this will get you yelled at and gaslit about how our moral betters have shown total consistency on this issue.
October 1, 2026 at 1:30 PM
Holocaust Harris doing a girlboss with Liz Cheney was the subject of more prolonged outrage from the Anti-War People than Trump the Peace President leading us into war with Iran.
Saying this will get you yelled at and gaslit about how our moral betters have shown total consistency on this issue.
Saying this will get you yelled at and gaslit about how our moral betters have shown total consistency on this issue.
Reposted by Secession anticipator
bad news for fellow steves
September 30, 2026 at 3:01 PM
bad news for fellow steves
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LMFAO the official America.gov AI website uses a Chinese open source model
September 30, 2026 at 1:00 AM
LMFAO the official America.gov AI website uses a Chinese open source model
Reposted by Secession anticipator
Great post. Nice work Robby 🙌
September 30, 2026 at 9:49 PM
Great post. Nice work Robby 🙌
Maybe the defense secretary should have been fired the first time there was a known major security breach
The Pentagon is notifying millions of current and former U.S. military servicemembers and staff that hackers stole their *unencrypted* personal information during a months-long data breach. The agency that had the breach also handles ID and login/credential access to U.S. military systems and bases.
Hackers stole millions of US military personnel records during months-long data breach | TechCrunch
The Department of Defense notified millions of current and former U.S. military personnel that their personal information had been stolen in a months-long breach.
techcrunch.com
September 30, 2026 at 9:18 PM
Maybe the defense secretary should have been fired the first time there was a known major security breach
Just gotta say, I'm seeing this reposted and I agree but it is a bit hypocritical when the same people also freak out about a Democrat expressing a nuanced opinion about trans athletes on some slippery slope argument
September 30, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Just gotta say, I'm seeing this reposted and I agree but it is a bit hypocritical when the same people also freak out about a Democrat expressing a nuanced opinion about trans athletes on some slippery slope argument
Obviously Florida was the big one but FTR Nader also spoiled new hampshire, would have been extremely close if he had not run
September 30, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Obviously Florida was the big one but FTR Nader also spoiled new hampshire, would have been extremely close if he had not run
Reposted by Secession anticipator
A good case from @dickpolman.bsky.social that this man’s selfish short-sightedness set us on path to where we are today. Excruciating insights on the wreckage of a legacy. dickpolman.substack.com/p/ralph-nade...
Ralph Nader is still a pariah. He deserves to be.
Tilting the ‘00 race to Bush was his original sin. We’re still suffering the consequences.
dickpolman.substack.com
September 30, 2026 at 2:16 AM
A good case from @dickpolman.bsky.social that this man’s selfish short-sightedness set us on path to where we are today. Excruciating insights on the wreckage of a legacy. dickpolman.substack.com/p/ralph-nade...
Reposted by Secession anticipator
Before calling someone a “dirtbag,” the Senator should have had his facts straight. An apology is in order.
Glad one of us knew the difference between the Atlanta Hawks and the Iowa Hawkeyes!
Glad one of us knew the difference between the Atlanta Hawks and the Iowa Hawkeyes!
September 29, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Before calling someone a “dirtbag,” the Senator should have had his facts straight. An apology is in order.
Glad one of us knew the difference between the Atlanta Hawks and the Iowa Hawkeyes!
Glad one of us knew the difference between the Atlanta Hawks and the Iowa Hawkeyes!
Reposted by Secession anticipator
The Soviet Union was a union of Soviet Republics.
September 29, 2026 at 5:39 PM
The Soviet Union was a union of Soviet Republics.
Unlike the trope of the grizzled shoe leather wearer outer journalist, elite media now mostly gives prime space to twerps who have basically no life experience. This guy graduated from Dartmouth 3 years ago
"Making day care free, while offering nothing to stay-at-home parents, appeals to the educated, urban, affluent voters who have come to make up the Democratic base, but not to the electorate at large," Marc Novicoff argues:
The Problem With Democrats' Favorite Policy Proposal
Universal child care appeals to the party's cosmopolitan base—but not to most of the country.
bit.ly
September 29, 2026 at 3:29 PM
Unlike the trope of the grizzled shoe leather wearer outer journalist, elite media now mostly gives prime space to twerps who have basically no life experience. This guy graduated from Dartmouth 3 years ago
Globe shouldn't publish this stuff but it gets easy clicks.
The "redevelopment" isn't that, it's a bus lane. No changes to land use! And these same people are complaining about losing parking so buses can go faster. All those rich white people on the buses?
Fact free nonsense
The "redevelopment" isn't that, it's a bus lane. No changes to land use! And these same people are complaining about losing parking so buses can go faster. All those rich white people on the buses?
Fact free nonsense
September 29, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Globe shouldn't publish this stuff but it gets easy clicks.
The "redevelopment" isn't that, it's a bus lane. No changes to land use! And these same people are complaining about losing parking so buses can go faster. All those rich white people on the buses?
Fact free nonsense
The "redevelopment" isn't that, it's a bus lane. No changes to land use! And these same people are complaining about losing parking so buses can go faster. All those rich white people on the buses?
Fact free nonsense
Lol ok guys
September 29, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Lol ok guys
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You’re fucking bald and defending AI usage, weirdo.
September 29, 2026 at 9:03 AM
You’re fucking bald and defending AI usage, weirdo.
The thing this article shows clearly is that neither side wanted to negotiate in anything approaching good faith, which was obvious from the start as the widespread slaughter of civilians was met with widespread slaughter of civilians. The US even getting them to entertain discussion was a victory
September 28, 2026 at 10:59 PM
The thing this article shows clearly is that neither side wanted to negotiate in anything approaching good faith, which was obvious from the start as the widespread slaughter of civilians was met with widespread slaughter of civilians. The US even getting them to entertain discussion was a victory