Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
Professor of ecology at UCNZ | Using science to anticipate where our living world is headed | Writing Predirections newsletter on biodiversity, climate & water → https://predirections.substack.com | https://tonkinlab.org
I can’t predict the environment my kids will inherit. None of us can.
But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
September 18, 2026 at 7:26 AM
I can’t predict the environment my kids will inherit. None of us can.
But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
New website for
IPBES
Nature Futures Framework
www.naturefuturesframework.org
"A flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth"
IPBES
Nature Futures Framework
www.naturefuturesframework.org
"A flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth"
Nature Futures Framework - Stockholm Resilience Centre
Advances the understanding of complex social-ecological systems with new insights into ecosystem management practices and long-term sustainability
www.naturefuturesframework.org
September 17, 2026 at 6:36 AM
New website for
IPBES
Nature Futures Framework
www.naturefuturesframework.org
"A flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth"
IPBES
Nature Futures Framework
www.naturefuturesframework.org
"A flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth"
Clear-cut forestry is just not a good strategy. It’s another example of taking gains now and overlooking the costs for the future. Recovery is slow. And we just don’t have the time for slow recovery right now.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
September 15, 2026 at 8:47 AM
Clear-cut forestry is just not a good strategy. It’s another example of taking gains now and overlooking the costs for the future. Recovery is slow. And we just don’t have the time for slow recovery right now.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
predirections.substack.com
September 11, 2026 at 4:11 AM
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
If you were also uneasy about the news of a swarm of agents solving the Navier-Stokes problem, it’s worth giving this piece a read.
Declaration — Math and AI
Read the declaration and add your name.
mathandai.org
September 12, 2026 at 7:36 AM
If you were also uneasy about the news of a swarm of agents solving the Navier-Stokes problem, it’s worth giving this piece a read.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Extinction debt makes policy action even slower to respond to biodiversity threats. The silver lining is that tools exist to detect it at various levels (genetic debt within populations, species richness debt) meaning we can reverse trends before costs to act are huge.
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
predirections.substack.com
September 11, 2026 at 5:23 AM
Extinction debt makes policy action even slower to respond to biodiversity threats. The silver lining is that tools exist to detect it at various levels (genetic debt within populations, species richness debt) meaning we can reverse trends before costs to act are huge.
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
predirections.substack.com
September 11, 2026 at 4:11 AM
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning.
Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's.
New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
Reservoirs on the Colorado River have dropped to their lowest levels since they were built.
Let that sink in for a second before you scroll past it.
Let that sink in for a second before you scroll past it.
September 10, 2026 at 3:56 AM
Reservoirs on the Colorado River have dropped to their lowest levels since they were built.
Let that sink in for a second before you scroll past it.
Let that sink in for a second before you scroll past it.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises.
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
Rivers run on insurance. This summer tested it.
The current heatwave and drought are doing more than drying up the Rhine and Danube. They may also be undermining their resilience to future events. The good news is that insurance can be rebuilt.
predirections.substack.com
September 4, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises.
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises.
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
Rivers run on insurance. This summer tested it.
The current heatwave and drought are doing more than drying up the Rhine and Danube. They may also be undermining their resilience to future events. The good news is that insurance can be rebuilt.
predirections.substack.com
September 4, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises.
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways.
They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms.
What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
I recall talking with my uni friends about the ecosystems we wanted to visit before it was too late—our bucket list of endangered ecosystems.
Top of my list was the Great Barrier Reef.
predirections.substack.com/p/the-great-...
Top of my list was the Great Barrier Reef.
predirections.substack.com/p/the-great-...
September 3, 2026 at 9:02 AM
I recall talking with my uni friends about the ecosystems we wanted to visit before it was too late—our bucket list of endangered ecosystems.
Top of my list was the Great Barrier Reef.
predirections.substack.com/p/the-great-...
Top of my list was the Great Barrier Reef.
predirections.substack.com/p/the-great-...
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
The Great Barrier Reef’s breaking point
Could this year’s Super El Niño be the one it can’t recover from?
predirections.substack.com
August 28, 2026 at 1:44 AM
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
The Great Barrier Reef’s breaking point
Could this year’s Super El Niño be the one it can’t recover from?
predirections.substack.com
August 28, 2026 at 1:44 AM
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late.
In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
I've spent my career studying rivers and biodiversity — work that's shaped how I think about time, risk, and long-term decision-making well beyond ecology itself.
August 27, 2026 at 6:26 AM
I've spent my career studying rivers and biodiversity — work that's shaped how I think about time, risk, and long-term decision-making well beyond ecology itself.
Nature handles time and risk very differently to how we do. This mismatch matters more than we tend to think. Here’s a roundup of ten pieces on why.
predirections.substack.com/p/ten-pieces...
predirections.substack.com/p/ten-pieces...
August 23, 2026 at 8:52 PM
Nature handles time and risk very differently to how we do. This mismatch matters more than we tend to think. Here’s a roundup of ten pieces on why.
predirections.substack.com/p/ten-pieces...
predirections.substack.com/p/ten-pieces...
Angus McIntosh and Helen Warburton have 4 PhD scholarships in freshwater ecology available at University of Canterbury, NZ.
Invasive aquatic plants in high-country springs, and native fish, springs, and birds in braided rivers
Invasive aquatic plants in high-country springs, and native fish, springs, and birds in braided rivers
August 21, 2026 at 4:18 AM
Angus McIntosh and Helen Warburton have 4 PhD scholarships in freshwater ecology available at University of Canterbury, NZ.
Invasive aquatic plants in high-country springs, and native fish, springs, and birds in braided rivers
Invasive aquatic plants in high-country springs, and native fish, springs, and birds in braided rivers
Déjà vu? This paper of ours in 2019 could be describing what’s happening across Europe right now. (See the highlighted text.)
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
August 20, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Déjà vu? This paper of ours in 2019 could be describing what’s happening across Europe right now. (See the highlighted text.)
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Natural rivers host a wide diversity of habitats, which support diverse assemblages of species. Narrow a river and you remove habitats and a river ecosystem's ability to bounce back following disturbance.
From our paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
From our paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
August 20, 2026 at 5:02 AM
Natural rivers host a wide diversity of habitats, which support diverse assemblages of species. Narrow a river and you remove habitats and a river ecosystem's ability to bounce back following disturbance.
From our paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
From our paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
My Department at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign invites applications from entomologists with research portfolios in which INSECT BIODIVERSITY LOSS is a key element (at the assistant professor level).
illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...
illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...
August 15, 2026 at 9:12 PM
My Department at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign invites applications from entomologists with research portfolios in which INSECT BIODIVERSITY LOSS is a key element (at the assistant professor level).
illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...
illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Grasslands & wetlands are being converted to agriculture nearly 4X faster than forests. Most people don’t realise these ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Add mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass & kelp forests, & you’ve got carbon storage powerhouses. Wrote about why they deserve more attention 👇
The ecosystems that store more carbon than you think
Grasslands and wetlands are carbon storage powerhouses, but they're being converted to agriculture at nearly four times the rate of forests.
predirections.substack.com
August 14, 2026 at 12:39 AM
Grasslands & wetlands are being converted to agriculture nearly 4X faster than forests. Most people don’t realise these ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Add mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass & kelp forests, & you’ve got carbon storage powerhouses. Wrote about why they deserve more attention 👇
Grasslands & wetlands are being converted to agriculture nearly 4X faster than forests. Most people don’t realise these ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Add mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass & kelp forests, & you’ve got carbon storage powerhouses. Wrote about why they deserve more attention 👇
The ecosystems that store more carbon than you think
Grasslands and wetlands are carbon storage powerhouses, but they're being converted to agriculture at nearly four times the rate of forests.
predirections.substack.com
August 14, 2026 at 12:39 AM
Grasslands & wetlands are being converted to agriculture nearly 4X faster than forests. Most people don’t realise these ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Add mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass & kelp forests, & you’ve got carbon storage powerhouses. Wrote about why they deserve more attention 👇
Just like planting trees whose shade you’ll never sit under, sometimes the most useful data is collected by someone who’ll never see what it’s used for.
predirections.substack.com/p/the-most-i...
predirections.substack.com/p/the-most-i...
The most important discoveries can take decades — or a millennium
From Kyoto's cherry blossoms to the Keeling Curve, the power of thinking beyond a single lifetime
predirections.substack.com
August 7, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Just like planting trees whose shade you’ll never sit under, sometimes the most useful data is collected by someone who’ll never see what it’s used for.
predirections.substack.com/p/the-most-i...
predirections.substack.com/p/the-most-i...
Some of the most important things we know about our changing planet come from records nobody built to detect it — a merchant counting river ice breakup in 1693, priests recording a god's footprint since 1443, diaries about flower-viewing parties.
August 6, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Some of the most important things we know about our changing planet come from records nobody built to detect it — a merchant counting river ice breakup in 1693, priests recording a god's footprint since 1443, diaries about flower-viewing parties.
19 months ago, one of my students submitted a manuscript for review.
It's now in round two, and we’ve still not got the second round reviews back.
Nothing about the underlying science has changed in that time. This isn't unusual — peer review is overburdened across the board, and has been for years.
It's now in round two, and we’ve still not got the second round reviews back.
Nothing about the underlying science has changed in that time. This isn't unusual — peer review is overburdened across the board, and has been for years.
August 5, 2026 at 9:58 AM
19 months ago, one of my students submitted a manuscript for review.
It's now in round two, and we’ve still not got the second round reviews back.
Nothing about the underlying science has changed in that time. This isn't unusual — peer review is overburdened across the board, and has been for years.
It's now in round two, and we’ve still not got the second round reviews back.
Nothing about the underlying science has changed in that time. This isn't unusual — peer review is overburdened across the board, and has been for years.
"Flash droughts" are emerging as a new threat under warming.
These rapidly occurring dry periods emerge from intense heat and low humidity
➡️ rapidly suck moisture out of the landscape, creating a “hyper-flammable” state
➡️ fire spreads faster, lasts longer and grows larger than other wildfires.
These rapidly occurring dry periods emerge from intense heat and low humidity
➡️ rapidly suck moisture out of the landscape, creating a “hyper-flammable” state
➡️ fire spreads faster, lasts longer and grows larger than other wildfires.
Flash droughts pull ‘alarming’ amounts of moisture from the landscape and intensify wildfires: new research
We have to stop thinking of droughts simply as a static state of low moisture. Rapid drought changes can send fire risk soaring.
theconversation.com
August 4, 2026 at 8:53 AM
"Flash droughts" are emerging as a new threat under warming.
These rapidly occurring dry periods emerge from intense heat and low humidity
➡️ rapidly suck moisture out of the landscape, creating a “hyper-flammable” state
➡️ fire spreads faster, lasts longer and grows larger than other wildfires.
These rapidly occurring dry periods emerge from intense heat and low humidity
➡️ rapidly suck moisture out of the landscape, creating a “hyper-flammable” state
➡️ fire spreads faster, lasts longer and grows larger than other wildfires.