Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
@joeboomzag.bsky.social
Pacific Northwest weather/climate forecasts. Website: theconvergencezone.com
I built a statistical model to forecast ski conditions using seasonal climate models. Summit at Snoqualmie in Washington has the worst ski forecast in the western US this winter. Makes sense given the “El Niño on steroids” model signal. Go south for better skiing ⛷️
Try it out: where2.ski
Try it out: where2.ski
September 18, 2026 at 12:52 AM
I built a statistical model to forecast ski conditions using seasonal climate models. Summit at Snoqualmie in Washington has the worst ski forecast in the western US this winter. Makes sense given the “El Niño on steroids” model signal. Go south for better skiing ⛷️
Try it out: where2.ski
Try it out: where2.ski
Who in their right mind is going to use OpenAI models after this???
This part is crazy. Every paragraph is worse than the last. Perhaps I was naive, but I didn't think OpenAI capable of being this dishonest.
September 8, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Who in their right mind is going to use OpenAI models after this???
Will SoCal feel the effects of Hurricane Marie this weekend?
Yes, but it won't be a major weather event. Impacts:
- Increased surf (!!! dangerous for holiday weekend !!!)
- Increased cloud cover
- Warmer temperatures and higher humidity
- Scattered rain showers (trace-0.10" for most)
Yes, but it won't be a major weather event. Impacts:
- Increased surf (!!! dangerous for holiday weekend !!!)
- Increased cloud cover
- Warmer temperatures and higher humidity
- Scattered rain showers (trace-0.10" for most)
September 3, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Will SoCal feel the effects of Hurricane Marie this weekend?
Yes, but it won't be a major weather event. Impacts:
- Increased surf (!!! dangerous for holiday weekend !!!)
- Increased cloud cover
- Warmer temperatures and higher humidity
- Scattered rain showers (trace-0.10" for most)
Yes, but it won't be a major weather event. Impacts:
- Increased surf (!!! dangerous for holiday weekend !!!)
- Increased cloud cover
- Warmer temperatures and higher humidity
- Scattered rain showers (trace-0.10" for most)
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
There is considerable ensemble spread in Hurricane Lowell's eventual turn northward starting sometime this weekend. About half of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members have a track near/over the Hawaiian islands that could result in concerning impacts early next week.
September 2, 2026 at 6:52 PM
There is considerable ensemble spread in Hurricane Lowell's eventual turn northward starting sometime this weekend. About half of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members have a track near/over the Hawaiian islands that could result in concerning impacts early next week.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
Update: The tropical weather feature of great interest--Tropical Storm (& soon hurricane) #Marie--has now developed. Marie's track will dictate potential CA impacts over Labor Day; uncertainty remains high, w/significant impacts possible (but direct landfall unlikely). [Thread]
September 1, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Update: The tropical weather feature of great interest--Tropical Storm (& soon hurricane) #Marie--has now developed. Marie's track will dictate potential CA impacts over Labor Day; uncertainty remains high, w/significant impacts possible (but direct landfall unlikely). [Thread]
Current weather near the beach in San Diego:
Fog with a dew point of 72.
Instant sweat sufferfest.
Fog with a dew point of 72.
Instant sweat sufferfest.
August 28, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Current weather near the beach in San Diego:
Fog with a dew point of 72.
Instant sweat sufferfest.
Fog with a dew point of 72.
Instant sweat sufferfest.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
An incredibly well-timed Landsat 9 pass captured the effects of yesterday’s catastrophic glacier collapse near the Nepal–Tibet border. The event was so massive that it was detected by seismometers around the world.
August 27, 2026 at 7:24 AM
An incredibly well-timed Landsat 9 pass captured the effects of yesterday’s catastrophic glacier collapse near the Nepal–Tibet border. The event was so massive that it was detected by seismometers around the world.
I moved to San Diego expecting nice weather. Why has it been so humid all summer?
substack.com/@joeboomzag/...
substack.com/@joeboomzag/...
I moved to San Diego expecting nice weather. Why has it been so humid all summer?
A recent Seattle transplant learns about marine layers and discovers that not everything should be blamed on El Niño
substack.com
August 24, 2026 at 2:57 PM
I moved to San Diego expecting nice weather. Why has it been so humid all summer?
substack.com/@joeboomzag/...
substack.com/@joeboomzag/...
Final Hawaii precipitation maps from Hurricane Lala.
I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern.
My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.
I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern.
My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.
August 21, 2026 at 12:10 AM
Final Hawaii precipitation maps from Hurricane Lala.
I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern.
My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.
I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern.
My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.
Can the Mariners do anything normal? Probably going to win 15-0 today 😂
August 20, 2026 at 12:27 AM
Can the Mariners do anything normal? Probably going to win 15-0 today 😂
Updated big island of Hawaii rainfall totals for Hurricane Lala. I had to add more colors to my colormap. Up to 35 inches (!!!) of rainfall.
August 16, 2026 at 5:20 PM
Updated big island of Hawaii rainfall totals for Hurricane Lala. I had to add more colors to my colormap. Up to 35 inches (!!!) of rainfall.
Impressive rainfall totals on the big island of Hawaii from Hurricane Lala. Might not be a landfall but this is the perfect track to dump rain on the eastern slopes. Max of 19 inches and counting on the east side of Mauna Kea.
August 16, 2026 at 2:53 AM
Impressive rainfall totals on the big island of Hawaii from Hurricane Lala. Might not be a landfall but this is the perfect track to dump rain on the eastern slopes. Max of 19 inches and counting on the east side of Mauna Kea.
It seems like posts/engagement have trended way down on Bluesky other than a few niche communities.
Are folks back on the dreaded X now? Or somewhere else? Curious where all the weather discussion has gone.
Are folks back on the dreaded X now? Or somewhere else? Curious where all the weather discussion has gone.
August 12, 2026 at 4:46 PM
It seems like posts/engagement have trended way down on Bluesky other than a few niche communities.
Are folks back on the dreaded X now? Or somewhere else? Curious where all the weather discussion has gone.
Are folks back on the dreaded X now? Or somewhere else? Curious where all the weather discussion has gone.
Is anyone else out there in the science world dealing with the dramatic change in our day-to-day jobs that occurred in the last year?
I can't be the only one who hasn't written a line of code since spring and now directs agents who are becoming increasingly autonomous. This all happened crazy fast.
I can't be the only one who hasn't written a line of code since spring and now directs agents who are becoming increasingly autonomous. This all happened crazy fast.
August 11, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Is anyone else out there in the science world dealing with the dramatic change in our day-to-day jobs that occurred in the last year?
I can't be the only one who hasn't written a line of code since spring and now directs agents who are becoming increasingly autonomous. This all happened crazy fast.
I can't be the only one who hasn't written a line of code since spring and now directs agents who are becoming increasingly autonomous. This all happened crazy fast.
While most of the West is either scorching hot or on fire or both, SoCal is experiencing a marine heat wave.
Dew points have hovered in the mid-60s F in LA and San Diego since early July -- around 90th percentile.
Not quite the perfect weather they are known for, but the ocean is nice to swim in!
Dew points have hovered in the mid-60s F in LA and San Diego since early July -- around 90th percentile.
Not quite the perfect weather they are known for, but the ocean is nice to swim in!
August 10, 2026 at 4:39 PM
While most of the West is either scorching hot or on fire or both, SoCal is experiencing a marine heat wave.
Dew points have hovered in the mid-60s F in LA and San Diego since early July -- around 90th percentile.
Not quite the perfect weather they are known for, but the ocean is nice to swim in!
Dew points have hovered in the mid-60s F in LA and San Diego since early July -- around 90th percentile.
Not quite the perfect weather they are known for, but the ocean is nice to swim in!
Made it to MLB ballpark #17 last night — Angel Stadium. Loved every second of it for the nostalgia factor. No frills and reasonable prices. I hope it never changes.
August 2, 2026 at 5:48 PM
Made it to MLB ballpark #17 last night — Angel Stadium. Loved every second of it for the nostalgia factor. No frills and reasonable prices. I hope it never changes.
Sending thoughts to Spokane tonight, terrible to see wildfires spreading through populated areas.
August 2, 2026 at 6:26 AM
Sending thoughts to Spokane tonight, terrible to see wildfires spreading through populated areas.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx
July 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM
Got a close up of the marine layer hole over Santa Catalina Island on my flight out of San Diego this morning. I think this is fairly common but it’s new to me!
July 11, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Got a close up of the marine layer hole over Santa Catalina Island on my flight out of San Diego this morning. I think this is fairly common but it’s new to me!
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
Impressive stuff going on in Seattle where virtually all transit agencies are setting ridership records and neighborhoods are seeing record visitors.
June 30, 2026 at 12:23 AM
Impressive stuff going on in Seattle where virtually all transit agencies are setting ridership records and neighborhoods are seeing record visitors.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
Aaaaand the Colorado Rockies are covered in smoke.
June 29, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Aaaaand the Colorado Rockies are covered in smoke.
California bike infrastructure
June 13, 2026 at 3:07 PM
California bike infrastructure
My first full day in San Diego and there is a wildfire nearby. Makes it easy to see the height of the marine layer…
June 8, 2026 at 5:32 PM
My first full day in San Diego and there is a wildfire nearby. Makes it easy to see the height of the marine layer…
If you’re wondering how the World Cup is going in Seattle, Airbnb just emailed us offering cash bonuses in exchange for securing bookings during matches.
The exorbitant dynamic pricing / politics has likely backfired and I suspect Seattle will have the same or less tourists than a typical summer.
The exorbitant dynamic pricing / politics has likely backfired and I suspect Seattle will have the same or less tourists than a typical summer.
June 4, 2026 at 12:06 AM
If you’re wondering how the World Cup is going in Seattle, Airbnb just emailed us offering cash bonuses in exchange for securing bookings during matches.
The exorbitant dynamic pricing / politics has likely backfired and I suspect Seattle will have the same or less tourists than a typical summer.
The exorbitant dynamic pricing / politics has likely backfired and I suspect Seattle will have the same or less tourists than a typical summer.
If this is my last Mariners game before I leave Seattle, I choose to remember this and not seeing us get one hit twice in three days...
(first foul ball after several hundred lifetime baseball games)
(first foul ball after several hundred lifetime baseball games)
May 20, 2026 at 5:09 AM
If this is my last Mariners game before I leave Seattle, I choose to remember this and not seeing us get one hit twice in three days...
(first foul ball after several hundred lifetime baseball games)
(first foul ball after several hundred lifetime baseball games)