John Pollock
@johnpollock.bsky.social
Communications for Chatham House (@chathamhouse.org) | Writer @theworldtoday.org | Think tanks and higher education | Posts on international affairs/security | China | Views my own.
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John Pollock
@johnpollock.bsky.social
· Nov 24
How Beijing is closing surveillance gaps in the South China Sea
The discovery of a new radar system on China’s Triton Island military base shows that Beijing is rapidly developing its intelligence capacities in contested waters, write John Pollock and Damien Symon...
www.chathamhouse.org
In 2023 the world thought China was building a 600-metre long airstrip on Triton Island. Maxar images 📸 reveal however the PLA has instead been upgrading its signals intelligence facilities.
I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.
I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.
Reposted by John Pollock
Together with Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its Houthis allies now have capacity to exert pressure on two of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
The Houthis’ capture of Mocha has transformed the war in Yemen – and the geopolitics of the Red Sea
Iran and its allies can now exert pressure on two strategic maritime chokepoints, with global implications. A more coherent international approach to Yemen is needed.
www.chathamhouse.org
September 18, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Together with Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its Houthis allies now have capacity to exert pressure on two of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
Reposted by John Pollock
"For the Houthis, this is a significant moment for their ability to project power."
Farea Al-Muslimi joined BBC News to discuss the Houthis offensive in Yemen along the Red Sea coast and the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Farea Al-Muslimi joined BBC News to discuss the Houthis offensive in Yemen along the Red Sea coast and the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
September 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM
"For the Houthis, this is a significant moment for their ability to project power."
Farea Al-Muslimi joined BBC News to discuss the Houthis offensive in Yemen along the Red Sea coast and the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Farea Al-Muslimi joined BBC News to discuss the Houthis offensive in Yemen along the Red Sea coast and the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Reposted by John Pollock
"This is significant for the Houthis but is important for the [Houthis] ally Iran which now sits on two of the most important chokepoints in the Middle East."
Farea Al-Muslimi on the offensive by the Houthis towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait and what it means for the Red Sea, via BBC World Service.
Farea Al-Muslimi on the offensive by the Houthis towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait and what it means for the Red Sea, via BBC World Service.
September 11, 2026 at 11:10 AM
"This is significant for the Houthis but is important for the [Houthis] ally Iran which now sits on two of the most important chokepoints in the Middle East."
Farea Al-Muslimi on the offensive by the Houthis towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait and what it means for the Red Sea, via BBC World Service.
Farea Al-Muslimi on the offensive by the Houthis towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait and what it means for the Red Sea, via BBC World Service.
Reposted by John Pollock
"It's a huge win for the Iranians and in the long term it will have a huge impact on the Saudis since they survived the Hormuz crisis by using the Red Sea as an alternative route."
Farea Al-Muslimi on the renewed offensive by the Houthis in Yemen towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait, via BBC Radio 4.
Farea Al-Muslimi on the renewed offensive by the Houthis in Yemen towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait, via BBC Radio 4.
September 11, 2026 at 10:15 AM
"It's a huge win for the Iranians and in the long term it will have a huge impact on the Saudis since they survived the Hormuz crisis by using the Red Sea as an alternative route."
Farea Al-Muslimi on the renewed offensive by the Houthis in Yemen towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait, via BBC Radio 4.
Farea Al-Muslimi on the renewed offensive by the Houthis in Yemen towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait, via BBC Radio 4.
Reposted by John Pollock
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia has moved far beyond arms supplies. Pyongyang is becoming an institutionalized part of Moscow’s war machine.
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia has consequences far beyond Ukraine
North Korea is emerging as Russia’s reserve arsenal – and potentially its reserve army. This deepening partnership has strengthened Pyongyang’s military capabilities and its strategic position in East...
www.chathamhouse.org
September 11, 2026 at 8:01 AM
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia has moved far beyond arms supplies. Pyongyang is becoming an institutionalized part of Moscow’s war machine.
Reposted by John Pollock
"The map favours Democrats in the House but in the Senate it's a harder path. It is Democrats election to lose here."
Laurel Rapp on Donald Trump's promise of $5,000 for voters and the political dynamics going into the US midterm elections, via BBC News.
Laurel Rapp on Donald Trump's promise of $5,000 for voters and the political dynamics going into the US midterm elections, via BBC News.
September 10, 2026 at 9:30 AM
"The map favours Democrats in the House but in the Senate it's a harder path. It is Democrats election to lose here."
Laurel Rapp on Donald Trump's promise of $5,000 for voters and the political dynamics going into the US midterm elections, via BBC News.
Laurel Rapp on Donald Trump's promise of $5,000 for voters and the political dynamics going into the US midterm elections, via BBC News.
Reposted by John Pollock
The US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage.
Read @rolandparis.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House.
Read @rolandparis.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs put Trump's trade strategy to the test
US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage.
www.chathamhouse.org
September 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM
The US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage.
Read @rolandparis.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House.
Read @rolandparis.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House.
Reposted by John Pollock
"This is a hugely risky and a long term endeavor. It is not in the interest of the Venezuelan people, and it's not even in the interests of the US."
Christopher Sabatini on the deal announced by the Trump administration to control 65 billion barrels of oil from Venezuela's reserves, via @cnn.com.
Christopher Sabatini on the deal announced by the Trump administration to control 65 billion barrels of oil from Venezuela's reserves, via @cnn.com.
August 29, 2026 at 12:10 PM
"This is a hugely risky and a long term endeavor. It is not in the interest of the Venezuelan people, and it's not even in the interests of the US."
Christopher Sabatini on the deal announced by the Trump administration to control 65 billion barrels of oil from Venezuela's reserves, via @cnn.com.
Christopher Sabatini on the deal announced by the Trump administration to control 65 billion barrels of oil from Venezuela's reserves, via @cnn.com.
Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House experts and researchers are available to follow on Bluesky.
Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends.
⬇️
go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends.
⬇️
go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
August 24, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Chatham House experts and researchers are available to follow on Bluesky.
Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends.
⬇️
go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends.
⬇️
go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
Reposted by John Pollock
The Economist Insider🎙️| What does Iran want?
Sanam Vakil joined @dsorennie.bsky.social for the @economist.com's Insider podcast to discuss Iran's new cadre of leaders and the motives driving Tehran's actions amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
Sanam Vakil joined @dsorennie.bsky.social for the @economist.com's Insider podcast to discuss Iran's new cadre of leaders and the motives driving Tehran's actions amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
August 8, 2026 at 10:15 AM
The Economist Insider🎙️| What does Iran want?
Sanam Vakil joined @dsorennie.bsky.social for the @economist.com's Insider podcast to discuss Iran's new cadre of leaders and the motives driving Tehran's actions amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
Sanam Vakil joined @dsorennie.bsky.social for the @economist.com's Insider podcast to discuss Iran's new cadre of leaders and the motives driving Tehran's actions amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
Reposted by John Pollock
"It is likely that these strikes will continue at a low-level as part of this attritional campaign, while negotiations also take place."
Sanam Vakil on the on-going US military strikes against Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via BBC News.
Sanam Vakil on the on-going US military strikes against Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via BBC News.
July 15, 2026 at 12:40 PM
"It is likely that these strikes will continue at a low-level as part of this attritional campaign, while negotiations also take place."
Sanam Vakil on the on-going US military strikes against Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via BBC News.
Sanam Vakil on the on-going US military strikes against Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via BBC News.
Reposted by John Pollock
"President Trump does recognise that he perhaps bought too much into the Israeli pitch that this would be an easy, quick war."
Sanam Vakil discussed with @camanpour.bsky.social the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump amid the wars in Iran and Lebanon, via @cnn.com.
Sanam Vakil discussed with @camanpour.bsky.social the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump amid the wars in Iran and Lebanon, via @cnn.com.
July 8, 2026 at 9:00 PM
"President Trump does recognise that he perhaps bought too much into the Israeli pitch that this would be an easy, quick war."
Sanam Vakil discussed with @camanpour.bsky.social the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump amid the wars in Iran and Lebanon, via @cnn.com.
Sanam Vakil discussed with @camanpour.bsky.social the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump amid the wars in Iran and Lebanon, via @cnn.com.
Reposted by John Pollock
"This is the second round of kinetic back and forth between the US and Iran."
Sanam Vakil joined @camanpour.bsky.social to discuss the military clashes between Iran and the US and the future of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), via @cnn.com.
Sanam Vakil joined @camanpour.bsky.social to discuss the military clashes between Iran and the US and the future of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), via @cnn.com.
July 8, 2026 at 7:30 PM
"This is the second round of kinetic back and forth between the US and Iran."
Sanam Vakil joined @camanpour.bsky.social to discuss the military clashes between Iran and the US and the future of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), via @cnn.com.
Sanam Vakil joined @camanpour.bsky.social to discuss the military clashes between Iran and the US and the future of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), via @cnn.com.
Reposted by John Pollock
Whether the United States reduces support for NATO or withdraws entirely, Europe needs a new security architecture — starting with cooperation between EU states and Turkey, Britain and Norway.
Read @galipdalay.bsky.social's analysis on NATO and Europe for the summer issue of @theworldtoday.org.
Read @galipdalay.bsky.social's analysis on NATO and Europe for the summer issue of @theworldtoday.org.
Turkey presses NATO’s EU members to broaden their horizons
As well as pushing for wider European cooperation in the alliance, the Ankara summit host knows that it is key to helping Europe regain influence in its rapidly changing southern neighbourhood, says G...
www.chathamhouse.org
July 8, 2026 at 7:15 AM
Whether the United States reduces support for NATO or withdraws entirely, Europe needs a new security architecture — starting with cooperation between EU states and Turkey, Britain and Norway.
Read @galipdalay.bsky.social's analysis on NATO and Europe for the summer issue of @theworldtoday.org.
Read @galipdalay.bsky.social's analysis on NATO and Europe for the summer issue of @theworldtoday.org.
Reposted by John Pollock
"I do think it's not only shooting yourself in the foot — but it's like amputating your leg without a medical reason for doing it."
President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit.
Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k
President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit.
Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k
June 25, 2026 at 9:10 AM
"I do think it's not only shooting yourself in the foot — but it's like amputating your leg without a medical reason for doing it."
President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit.
Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k
President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit.
Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k
Reposted by John Pollock
After decades of hostility, withdrawal from the JCPOA and two US-Israeli wars against Iran, there is little basis for confidence – or trust – between Tehran and Washington.
Will the US–Iran ceasefire hold?
Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene.
www.chathamhouse.org
June 22, 2026 at 3:40 PM
After decades of hostility, withdrawal from the JCPOA and two US-Israeli wars against Iran, there is little basis for confidence – or trust – between Tehran and Washington.
Reposted by John Pollock
A year after the Strategic Defence Review was agreed, the UK government has decided not to fund its own review. In doing so, it is not merely failing to move forward — it is actively going backwards.
John Healey’s resignation highlights profound strategic failure in the UK government’s approach to defence
General Sir Richard Barrons says a lack of government competence is making the UK less safe and undermining its reputation with allies.
www.chathamhouse.org
June 12, 2026 at 5:30 AM
A year after the Strategic Defence Review was agreed, the UK government has decided not to fund its own review. In doing so, it is not merely failing to move forward — it is actively going backwards.
Reposted by John Pollock
If Russia can claim victory in Ukraine – or even if it is perceived as victorious – Moscow will be emboldened with serious consequences for the entire Black Sea region.
Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy
How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region
www.chathamhouse.org
June 10, 2026 at 3:30 PM
If Russia can claim victory in Ukraine – or even if it is perceived as victorious – Moscow will be emboldened with serious consequences for the entire Black Sea region.
Reposted by John Pollock
Iran's leadership feels emboldened. Its command structure endured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Tehran's leverage has increased with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on the US-Iran negotiations for @theguardian.com.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on the US-Iran negotiations for @theguardian.com.
Iran and the US both think they are winning the war. The truth is they are both losing | Sanam Vakil
The current ceasefire has held just enough to prevent a return to all-out war, but neither side is close to achieving peace, says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at...
www.theguardian.com
June 5, 2026 at 6:00 AM
Iran's leadership feels emboldened. Its command structure endured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Tehran's leverage has increased with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on the US-Iran negotiations for @theguardian.com.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on the US-Iran negotiations for @theguardian.com.
Reposted by John Pollock
The Xi–Putin relationship remains one of the most consequential strategic partnerships in the world. Yet its durability lies not in limitless friendship, but in carefully managed limits.
China and Russia’s strategic duo endures – but its limits are clear
This week’s summit shows the relationship is resilient, rooted in shared interests. But China remains wary of commitments on various fronts.
www.chathamhouse.org
May 21, 2026 at 4:01 PM
The Xi–Putin relationship remains one of the most consequential strategic partnerships in the world. Yet its durability lies not in limitless friendship, but in carefully managed limits.
Thinking of all my former colleagues at the @uniofnottingham.bsky.social today. This looks absolutely devastating.
Thousands of University of Nottingham staff told they are at risk of redundancy
Institution says it could run out of money by 2031 and wants to cut more than 600 academic and support posts
www.theguardian.com
May 13, 2026 at 8:48 AM
Thinking of all my former colleagues at the @uniofnottingham.bsky.social today. This looks absolutely devastating.
Reposted by John Pollock
Donald Trump's goals for Venezuela and Iran carried an implicit message: maximum pressure sanctions failed, requiring an escalation to US military strikes. Cuba may be next.
Do Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions inevitably lead to military action?
When ‘maximum’ economic pressure fails to bring regime change, and rhetoric has made diplomacy politically impossible, momentum towards military solutions will grow.
www.chathamhouse.org
May 12, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Donald Trump's goals for Venezuela and Iran carried an implicit message: maximum pressure sanctions failed, requiring an escalation to US military strikes. Cuba may be next.
Reposted by John Pollock
China will not displace the US as the Persian Gulf's security guarantor, but Beijing could play a role in building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their strategies.
China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran
China will not displace the US as regional security guarantor, but it could play an important role building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their security strategies.
www.chathamhouse.org
May 6, 2026 at 4:01 PM
China will not displace the US as the Persian Gulf's security guarantor, but Beijing could play a role in building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their strategies.
Reposted by John Pollock
As the world scrambles to respond to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran war should prompt preparations for a crisis over Taiwan.
A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption
As China ramps up its pressure on Taiwan, the Strait of Hormuz closure must serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers.
www.chathamhouse.org
April 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM
As the world scrambles to respond to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran war should prompt preparations for a crisis over Taiwan.