Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times; sovereign debt thinkfluencer; I like comics
Looking forward to the YouTube slop thumbnails of everyone in the discussion looking shocked below "TEA OR COFFEE? THEY DIDN'T KNOW"
September 10, 2026 at 9:47 AM
Looking forward to the YouTube slop thumbnails of everyone in the discussion looking shocked below "TEA OR COFFEE? THEY DIDN'T KNOW"
Senegal’s total return swap situation continues to go well.
September 10, 2026 at 8:58 AM
Senegal’s total return swap situation continues to go well.
So... is a more than 10% chance in a decade the new 'sellside 40%'?
September 9, 2026 at 2:53 PM
So... is a more than 10% chance in a decade the new 'sellside 40%'?
I remember the moment in late 2022 when Ramaphosa came close to resigning over Phala Phala. One of his closest advisers told me then he would come back stronger, wouldn't take the reform agenda for granted, etc. Outside Operation Vulindlela (and even then...), it just never really happened.
This scandal was the turning point for Ramaphosa. Ever since then it’s felt like he’s lost interest in governing.
www.ft.com/content/0df6...
www.ft.com/content/0df6...
The missing $580,000 that could bring down South Africa’s president
Cyril Ramaphosa is battling impeachment proceedings in long-running scandal over burglary of cash hidden at his game farm
www.ft.com
September 7, 2026 at 12:46 PM
I remember the moment in late 2022 when Ramaphosa came close to resigning over Phala Phala. One of his closest advisers told me then he would come back stronger, wouldn't take the reform agenda for granted, etc. Outside Operation Vulindlela (and even then...), it just never really happened.
Venezuela’s creditors are looking for credible evidence that oil output can increase quickly, under experienced operators, to stabilise the debt after restructuring. This… is not such a good signal of that. www.ft.com/content/939e...
Trump-linked companies race to secure deals for Venezuela’s oil
Appointees, a donor and a recent administration official are among those capitalising on US control of beleaguered energy sector
www.ft.com
September 4, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Venezuela’s creditors are looking for credible evidence that oil output can increase quickly, under experienced operators, to stabilise the debt after restructuring. This… is not such a good signal of that. www.ft.com/content/939e...
Not the main thing here, but a black velvet is also known as a way to ruin two perfectly good drinks. A perfect choice then for someone completely flailing at their due diligence.
Nigel Farage filmed celebrating illegal foreign donations
Undercover footage reveals plot to break the law by funnelling offshore funds through a UK donor.
Donations funded a series of widely reported polls boosting Reform ahead of the local elections channel4news.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
Undercover footage reveals plot to break the law by funnelling offshore funds through a UK donor.
Donations funded a series of widely reported polls boosting Reform ahead of the local elections channel4news.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
September 3, 2026 at 7:16 PM
Not the main thing here, but a black velvet is also known as a way to ruin two perfectly good drinks. A perfect choice then for someone completely flailing at their due diligence.
VanEck on Venezuela's debt restructuring: “The IMF is the only independent, credible institution with the resources necessary to rebuild government statistics in a timely fashion and perform a credible, unbiased debt sustainability analysis...” www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/...
Sizing the Haircut, Valuing the Exchange | VanEck
A debt sustainability framework for a Venezuelan bond restructuring, and what it implies for recovery values.
www.vaneck.com
September 1, 2026 at 8:27 AM
VanEck on Venezuela's debt restructuring: “The IMF is the only independent, credible institution with the resources necessary to rebuild government statistics in a timely fashion and perform a credible, unbiased debt sustainability analysis...” www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/...
“NABEP, based in Barbados, announced Sara Chouraqui’s appointment as general counsel last week. She was previously head of the fraud, bribery and corruption division at the UK’s Serious Fraud Office.” www.ft.com/content/9dbf...
Alejandro Betancourt: the man who would be Trump’s ‘viceroy’ in Venezuela
The US has turned to a wily and divisive insider to help it develop the country’s oil reserves
www.ft.com
August 31, 2026 at 6:24 AM
“NABEP, based in Barbados, announced Sara Chouraqui’s appointment as general counsel last week. She was previously head of the fraud, bribery and corruption division at the UK’s Serious Fraud Office.” www.ft.com/content/9dbf...
If the US gets a stake in, or long lease on, Venezuelan oil fields, it's a big deal for the debt restructuring. In theory it hits bond recoveries. But it also signals a strong US incentive to raise production, so if creditors get oil warrants... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Venezuela Weighs OPEC Exit as US Discusses Oil Fields Stake
Venezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago.
www.bloomberg.com
August 28, 2026 at 11:07 AM
If the US gets a stake in, or long lease on, Venezuelan oil fields, it's a big deal for the debt restructuring. In theory it hits bond recoveries. But it also signals a strong US incentive to raise production, so if creditors get oil warrants... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The US experiment in Venezuela is basically resurrecting an oligarch it used to shun - WaPo reports that US officials lobbied to help Alejandro Betancourt, a fixer going back to the Chavez era, with a Swiss arrest warrant, as he helps the US with oil deals. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
U.S. intervened in criminal probe of oilman helping Trump in Venezuela
Swiss prosecutors asked the U.S. Justice Department to arrest Alejandro Betancourt. Instead, he was given a multi-entry visa and allowed to travel to the United States.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 27, 2026 at 11:50 AM
The US experiment in Venezuela is basically resurrecting an oligarch it used to shun - WaPo reports that US officials lobbied to help Alejandro Betancourt, a fixer going back to the Chavez era, with a Swiss arrest warrant, as he helps the US with oil deals. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
Venezuela's US-backed oil export boom is so large, its ports can't keep up and is causing shipping traffic jams: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
EXCLUSIVE: Tankers stack up as Venezuela sells oil faster than its ports can handle
Venezuela's dilapidated oil port terminals are imposing a de facto export cap on the country's resurgent crude production, with tankers having to wait up to 30 days to load because of ageing infrastru...
www.reuters.com
August 21, 2026 at 12:28 PM
Venezuela's US-backed oil export boom is so large, its ports can't keep up and is causing shipping traffic jams: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Great column. Also a fun quirk in international law that, as the hegemon, the US actually stuck to the three-mile 'cannon-shot' limit until the 1980s. Then joined (nearly) everyone else on twelve.
This week's column is on castles, cannons, the age of sail, drones and anarchic oceans www.economist.com/finance-and-...
August 20, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Great column. Also a fun quirk in international law that, as the hegemon, the US actually stuck to the three-mile 'cannon-shot' limit until the 1980s. Then joined (nearly) everyone else on twelve.
Iran's stock market is up close to 30% in dollar terms over the past month (chart via Amtelon Capital). Iranian stocks trade on about 3.5 times forward earnings - one sign of an economy that is already very isolated. But hard to crush from outside.
August 20, 2026 at 9:44 AM
Iran's stock market is up close to 30% in dollar terms over the past month (chart via Amtelon Capital). Iranian stocks trade on about 3.5 times forward earnings - one sign of an economy that is already very isolated. But hard to crush from outside.
The other side of South Africa's post-ANC, GNU big-tent coalition era: extremist political entrepreneurs can flourish posing as 'civic movements' outside the system. And also collaborate across ideological lines.
Conservative Afrikaner lobby group AfriForum said they met with anti-immigrant campaigners March & March and have set up a "collaborative working group for the benefit of communities".
If you know anything about South Africa, you'll know how deeply cynical this is on the part of both groups
If you know anything about South Africa, you'll know how deeply cynical this is on the part of both groups
August 18, 2026 at 4:16 PM
The other side of South Africa's post-ANC, GNU big-tent coalition era: extremist political entrepreneurs can flourish posing as 'civic movements' outside the system. And also collaborate across ideological lines.
“Inside the [air raid] shelter there was a box of tools with instructions on how to use them to dig yourself out if a strike buries you under debris. Hrubov said a group of workers had found themselves in such a situation recently and all survived.” www.ft.com/content/d046...
Sun, sea and bombs in Odesa
In the port city known for its beaches and nightlife, Russian attacks are choking off an export lifeline
www.ft.com
August 13, 2026 at 11:15 AM
“Inside the [air raid] shelter there was a box of tools with instructions on how to use them to dig yourself out if a strike buries you under debris. Hrubov said a group of workers had found themselves in such a situation recently and all survived.” www.ft.com/content/d046...
The partial eclipse as seen through crescent shadows at Telegraph Hill, London, this evening.
August 12, 2026 at 7:06 PM
The partial eclipse as seen through crescent shadows at Telegraph Hill, London, this evening.
Once again proving my theory about these things, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ works so well because it’s a comic-book film, not a superhero film, and is very good at achieving the comic-bookness, right down to representing individual ‘panels’. (And absurd melodrama)
Sadly no J Jonah Jameson though.
Sadly no J Jonah Jameson though.
August 9, 2026 at 7:08 PM
Once again proving my theory about these things, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ works so well because it’s a comic-book film, not a superhero film, and is very good at achieving the comic-bookness, right down to representing individual ‘panels’. (And absurd melodrama)
Sadly no J Jonah Jameson though.
Sadly no J Jonah Jameson though.
Issuance yield of over 12%, but the bond is now trading at around 91 cents on the dollar. The trend toward private placements in African sovereign debt: great if you are in the group of investors able to get in on the deals. Quite bamboozling if you are not.
Gabon / final offering circular for the 2033 Eurobond. Note the issue price: 87.422% on a 9.375% coupon. www.budget.gouv.ga/view.twg?dir...
August 6, 2026 at 3:12 PM
Issuance yield of over 12%, but the bond is now trading at around 91 cents on the dollar. The trend toward private placements in African sovereign debt: great if you are in the group of investors able to get in on the deals. Quite bamboozling if you are not.
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
There is little sign of any "jobs apocalypse" in India's IT sector www.economist.com/finance-and-...
August 6, 2026 at 9:50 AM
There is little sign of any "jobs apocalypse" in India's IT sector www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Stanchart on why last Friday's yen intervention made an impact: ”On balance, we and the market estimate $5-10bn of EUR-JPY intervention by the Treasury and roughly $36bn bought by the Japanese authorities on 31 July... Summer Friday afternoons are not very liquid.“
August 4, 2026 at 9:50 AM
Stanchart on why last Friday's yen intervention made an impact: ”On balance, we and the market estimate $5-10bn of EUR-JPY intervention by the Treasury and roughly $36bn bought by the Japanese authorities on 31 July... Summer Friday afternoons are not very liquid.“
Another sign of this is that emerging market debt - corporate and sovereign - is starting to become a ‘not the hyperscalers‘ asset class, in terms of how fund managers pitch it as less AI exposed. Don't fancy Oracle? Buy (er) Saudi Arabia.
NEW: Trading frenzy builds in hyperscaler debt and CDS markets
A record $127bn of AI-linked corporate bonds changed hands in July, ~15% of total US IG trading volumes (vs 4.5% in 2025)
CDS volumes also through the roof
Hyperscalers now the driving force in US credit
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
A record $127bn of AI-linked corporate bonds changed hands in July, ~15% of total US IG trading volumes (vs 4.5% in 2025)
CDS volumes also through the roof
Hyperscalers now the driving force in US credit
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Trading frenzy builds in hyperscaler debt and CDS markets | IFR
People & Markets
Traders report healthy two-way flow as spreads widen
www.ifre.com
August 3, 2026 at 10:30 AM
Another sign of this is that emerging market debt - corporate and sovereign - is starting to become a ‘not the hyperscalers‘ asset class, in terms of how fund managers pitch it as less AI exposed. Don't fancy Oracle? Buy (er) Saudi Arabia.
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
NEW: Trading frenzy builds in hyperscaler debt and CDS markets
A record $127bn of AI-linked corporate bonds changed hands in July, ~15% of total US IG trading volumes (vs 4.5% in 2025)
CDS volumes also through the roof
Hyperscalers now the driving force in US credit
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
A record $127bn of AI-linked corporate bonds changed hands in July, ~15% of total US IG trading volumes (vs 4.5% in 2025)
CDS volumes also through the roof
Hyperscalers now the driving force in US credit
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Trading frenzy builds in hyperscaler debt and CDS markets | IFR
People & Markets
Traders report healthy two-way flow as spreads widen
www.ifre.com
August 3, 2026 at 10:14 AM
NEW: Trading frenzy builds in hyperscaler debt and CDS markets
A record $127bn of AI-linked corporate bonds changed hands in July, ~15% of total US IG trading volumes (vs 4.5% in 2025)
CDS volumes also through the roof
Hyperscalers now the driving force in US credit
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
A record $127bn of AI-linked corporate bonds changed hands in July, ~15% of total US IG trading volumes (vs 4.5% in 2025)
CDS volumes also through the roof
Hyperscalers now the driving force in US credit
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Taiwan's central bank has of course also devoted itself to a years-long crusade against the Big Mac index. (See www.cbc.gov.tw/en/cp-448-18..., www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-432-57..., etc)
July 31, 2026 at 1:50 PM
Taiwan's central bank has of course also devoted itself to a years-long crusade against the Big Mac index. (See www.cbc.gov.tw/en/cp-448-18..., www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-432-57..., etc)
Bit late to this but saw that Senegal's parliamentary speaker (and former PM) has endorsed a committee to investigate the total return swaps (details of which everyone first saw in the FT). It still needs input from the president. Who is now the former PM's rival... www.assemblee.sn/fr/actualite...
Assemblée nationale du Sénégal
www.assemblee.sn
July 31, 2026 at 10:08 AM
Bit late to this but saw that Senegal's parliamentary speaker (and former PM) has endorsed a committee to investigate the total return swaps (details of which everyone first saw in the FT). It still needs input from the president. Who is now the former PM's rival... www.assemblee.sn/fr/actualite...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Spotted in an upmarket mall in Joburg last month: half-price on lab-grown diamonds. Not a positive sign for the viability of diamond mining.
July 30, 2026 at 10:07 AM
Spotted in an upmarket mall in Joburg last month: half-price on lab-grown diamonds. Not a positive sign for the viability of diamond mining.