Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times; sovereign debt thinkfluencer; I like comics
On the Home Office “fiscal modelling” of the 'earned' settlement changes from yesterday btw - it implies a view of the “net fiscal impact” of native British citizens (and those on or below the median salary) if the model was used on them. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae89f...
November 3, 2026 at 5:03 PM
On the Home Office “fiscal modelling” of the 'earned' settlement changes from yesterday btw - it implies a view of the “net fiscal impact” of native British citizens (and those on or below the median salary) if the model was used on them. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae89f...
Another great day at Britain's much loved Home Office
(Results of the consultation on 'earned' settlement: over 200,000 responses) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae880...
(Results of the consultation on 'earned' settlement: over 200,000 responses) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae880...
November 2, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Another great day at Britain's much loved Home Office
(Results of the consultation on 'earned' settlement: over 200,000 responses) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae880...
(Results of the consultation on 'earned' settlement: over 200,000 responses) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae880...
Just to illustrate this: our marriage visa and 'health' surcharge fees due next year are around £4,000. 'Priority' service? About £1,000 extra.
The average British person would be radicalised if they were forced to endure the rampant rent-seeking of the (outsourced to within an inch of its life) British immigration system.
The whole principle behind Shabana Mahmood's proposals is repellent.
The idea that we value humans by their pay rate rather than its need for society.
Why should a care worker wait longer for citizenship than a banker, or a nurse longer than an HR manager?
The idea that we value humans by their pay rate rather than its need for society.
Why should a care worker wait longer for citizenship than a banker, or a nurse longer than an HR manager?
November 2, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Just to illustrate this: our marriage visa and 'health' surcharge fees due next year are around £4,000. 'Priority' service? About £1,000 extra.
“Attackers linked by analysts to Pyongyang may have swiped [$6.3bn from Binance, or] close to double the total amount of crypto stolen worldwide last year — a sum equivalent to almost a fifth of North Korea’s gross national income.” www.ft.com/content/46c0...
How North Korea became a hacking superpower
Cash-strapped state, cut off by sanctions, has invested heavily in cyber warfare to help support itself
www.ft.com
October 30, 2026 at 3:21 PM
“Attackers linked by analysts to Pyongyang may have swiped [$6.3bn from Binance, or] close to double the total amount of crypto stolen worldwide last year — a sum equivalent to almost a fifth of North Korea’s gross national income.” www.ft.com/content/46c0...
Taiwan’s economy grew an estimated 14% year on year in the third quarter. eng.dgbas.gov.tw/News_Content...
GDP: Advance Estimate of 2026Q3
eng.dgbas.gov.tw
October 30, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Taiwan’s economy grew an estimated 14% year on year in the third quarter. eng.dgbas.gov.tw/News_Content...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
The man was a lifelong campaigner against domestic violence because of what he saw his mother go through. A king, a champ, a feminist icon, he deserved all the love he got and more. www.theguardian.com/society/2009...
October 29, 2026 at 7:51 PM
The man was a lifelong campaigner against domestic violence because of what he saw his mother go through. A king, a champ, a feminist icon, he deserved all the love he got and more. www.theguardian.com/society/2009...
“Please stop deep frying stocks immediately because the
government intends to take firm action,” Prabowo's brother said. (Deep-fried shares, 'saham gorengan' = wash trading) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
government intends to take firm action,” Prabowo's brother said. (Deep-fried shares, 'saham gorengan' = wash trading) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Prabowo’s Own Brother Sounds Alarm Over Indonesian Stock Market
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s brother stressed the importance of a trusted and transparent local share market, saying the country must “mitigate the MSCI issue” and telling business leaders ...
www.bloomberg.com
October 29, 2026 at 1:21 PM
“Please stop deep frying stocks immediately because the
government intends to take firm action,” Prabowo's brother said. (Deep-fried shares, 'saham gorengan' = wash trading) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
government intends to take firm action,” Prabowo's brother said. (Deep-fried shares, 'saham gorengan' = wash trading) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Buried a bit in the UK budget: the UK is changing how it taxes foreign sovereign wealth funds (and similar) quite significantly by creating a new 'sovereign taxpayer' status. No more blanket immunity. This will affect land income most, it appears. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae0e8...
October 28, 2026 at 3:11 PM
Buried a bit in the UK budget: the UK is changing how it taxes foreign sovereign wealth funds (and similar) quite significantly by creating a new 'sovereign taxpayer' status. No more blanket immunity. This will affect land income most, it appears. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae0e8...
The crumbling mansions of the Guptas are on sale again. Combined asking price R22mn (£1mn) but with offers starting at R15mn (£675k) you can get 18 bedrooms & a piece of South African history for the price of a London flat. www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...
www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...
www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...
7 Bedroom House for sale in Saxonwold - Johannesburg - Property24
OFFERS FROM R 7M, ASKING R 10M -
Set on an expansive 4,032m² stand, this property offers...
www.property24.com
October 27, 2026 at 11:27 AM
The crumbling mansions of the Guptas are on sale again. Combined asking price R22mn (£1mn) but with offers starting at R15mn (£675k) you can get 18 bedrooms & a piece of South African history for the price of a London flat. www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...
www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...
www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...
You could get shares in Brazil’s biggest investment bank for a third off the previous day’s price today. A US-listed Brazilian investment manager for half off. A 20% discount on the region’s biggest fintech. Etc. www.ft.com/content/bffe...
Lula’s surprise victory triggers worst rout in decades for Brazilian markets
Investors had been positioned for victory by rightwing Bolsonaro, seen as more willing to tackle budget deficit
www.ft.com
October 26, 2026 at 7:52 PM
You could get shares in Brazil’s biggest investment bank for a third off the previous day’s price today. A US-listed Brazilian investment manager for half off. A 20% discount on the region’s biggest fintech. Etc. www.ft.com/content/bffe...
This will be out of date quickly today (the Brazilian real has opened down a lot against the dollar), but in dollar terms, Brazil's stock market was up 38% so far this year (or 27% local currency). Versus 41% (29%) for Korea, which had all the emerging-market attention as the hot AI market.
October 26, 2026 at 12:43 PM
This will be out of date quickly today (the Brazilian real has opened down a lot against the dollar), but in dollar terms, Brazil's stock market was up 38% so far this year (or 27% local currency). Versus 41% (29%) for Korea, which had all the emerging-market attention as the hot AI market.
If you’re a politician anywhere outside the US, at this point the big lobbying move with Trumpworld should be to get him to endorse your opponent.
October 26, 2026 at 12:11 AM
If you’re a politician anywhere outside the US, at this point the big lobbying move with Trumpworld should be to get him to endorse your opponent.
Folha: Lula projected to win Brazil’s election with just over 51% of the vote, based on votes tallied so far. www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/1...
Lula vira, bate Flávio Bolsonaro e se reelege para inédito 4º mandato, projeta Datafolha
Vitória ocorre após dia tenso da eleição, com STF adiando pela primeira vez a votação em todo o país
www1.folha.uol.com.br
October 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Folha: Lula projected to win Brazil’s election with just over 51% of the vote, based on votes tallied so far. www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/1...
That's right. They're battlefields.
Pichai allegedly told the president, “Oceans are different, sir.” www.theverge.com/policy/10167...
Trump says Sundar Pichai talked him out of renaming the Atlantic Ocean
Pichai allegedly said, “Oceans are different, sir.”
www.theverge.com
October 22, 2026 at 4:09 PM
That's right. They're battlefields.
The Disappearers. Had to put it down several times as it brought back, well, memories, but didn’t want it to end. Like an Icelandic saga in how it explores what violence leaves in people. Crazily ambitious. Absolutely book of the year. If Marlon James doesn’t get the Booker I’ll be very surprised.
October 15, 2026 at 8:12 PM
The Disappearers. Had to put it down several times as it brought back, well, memories, but didn’t want it to end. Like an Icelandic saga in how it explores what violence leaves in people. Crazily ambitious. Absolutely book of the year. If Marlon James doesn’t get the Booker I’ll be very surprised.
This is so much like attempts in South Africa a decade ago to keep firing, prosecuting and otherwise hounding officials who tried to stop state capture, even after courts threw it out. www.ft.com/content/d0c8...
Donald Trump launches committee to investigate Fed governor Lisa Cook
Move comes after Supreme Court in June rebuffed president’s attempt to sack central banker
www.ft.com
October 9, 2026 at 3:17 PM
This is so much like attempts in South Africa a decade ago to keep firing, prosecuting and otherwise hounding officials who tried to stop state capture, even after courts threw it out. www.ft.com/content/d0c8...
First (no doubt not the last!) Nobel Prize winner to write interestingly on Rosalía www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
Anne Carson · On Rosalía
We require heroism of our entertainers. We want them sacrificing themselves to a certain ultimate degree of input. No...
www.lrb.co.uk
October 8, 2026 at 11:14 AM
First (no doubt not the last!) Nobel Prize winner to write interestingly on Rosalía www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
BofA: Bond yields in Asian emerging markets are in nominal terms trading the most below US Treasuries in years. “This is not purely a consequence of EM Asia's significantly lower policy rates skewed by China's heavy GDP weighting...”
October 7, 2026 at 1:56 PM
BofA: Bond yields in Asian emerging markets are in nominal terms trading the most below US Treasuries in years. “This is not purely a consequence of EM Asia's significantly lower policy rates skewed by China's heavy GDP weighting...”
Emerging-market domestic bonds are faring a lot better than many expected given the recent moves in US yields, and it is weirding people out a bit. Is it better EM fundamentals or is it reflecting how other risk assets like stocks haven't panicked yet? Both? www.ft.com/content/0f69...
Emerging markets outperform developed markets as bond rout deepens
Fiscal discipline, institutional strength and a willingness to fight inflation have shielded developing countries so far
www.ft.com
October 2, 2026 at 9:23 AM
Emerging-market domestic bonds are faring a lot better than many expected given the recent moves in US yields, and it is weirding people out a bit. Is it better EM fundamentals or is it reflecting how other risk assets like stocks haven't panicked yet? Both? www.ft.com/content/0f69...
Some light on another facet of the rise of sovereign total return swaps - they can be farmed out to other investors, as FAB may be considering with its Nigeria swap. Senegal TRS may have similarly been shopped around, but this is not a public or visible market. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
First Abu Dhabi Bank Seen Syndicating $5 Billion Nigeria Swap
www.bloomberg.com
October 1, 2026 at 10:34 AM
Some light on another facet of the rise of sovereign total return swaps - they can be farmed out to other investors, as FAB may be considering with its Nigeria swap. Senegal TRS may have similarly been shopped around, but this is not a public or visible market. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Substack in response to the FT on whether or not India is facing a "shock" from tighter migration restrictions in the rich English speaking world. gavinjackson2.substack.com/p/an-indian-...
An Indian shock?
India is not particularly dependent on migration to the rich English-speaking world
gavinjackson2.substack.com
October 1, 2026 at 4:56 AM
Substack in response to the FT on whether or not India is facing a "shock" from tighter migration restrictions in the rich English speaking world. gavinjackson2.substack.com/p/an-indian-...
UK Government Investments Ltd, UK Export Finance, and the Department for Business and Trade (et al) are bringing out the big guns though.
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07921...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07038...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/06014...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07921...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07038...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/06014...
September 30, 2026 at 11:29 AM
UK Government Investments Ltd, UK Export Finance, and the Department for Business and Trade (et al) are bringing out the big guns though.
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07921...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07038...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/06014...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07921...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07038...
www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/06014...
I’m… an OpenAI agent
Security researcher Rowan Howard-Jones says that OpenAI agents scanned the UN Conference on Trade and Development’s statistics site over 16,000 times between April and June.
OpenAI agents tried to ‘bruteforce’ a UN website
OpenAI’s agents resorted to increasingly aggressive tactics when they couldn’t immediately get what they wanted.
www.theverge.com
September 28, 2026 at 5:53 PM
I’m… an OpenAI agent
One thing we noticed looking at London house listings (not even flats) lately is a few more so-called 'modern method' (or conditional) auctions. I don't really understand their appeal other than sellers maybe more anxious for a quick sale? www.ft.com/content/f9c1...
How London became the property market’s black sheep
Capital’s once-relentless property boom has gone into reverse
www.ft.com
September 28, 2026 at 3:05 PM
One thing we noticed looking at London house listings (not even flats) lately is a few more so-called 'modern method' (or conditional) auctions. I don't really understand their appeal other than sellers maybe more anxious for a quick sale? www.ft.com/content/f9c1...
South Africa's central bank governor on how the Great Global Bond Sell-Off™ hasn't affected South Africa or other EMs much yet. (Yet.) In part because many were already under the gun in fiscal and monetary terms for years, and had reformed a bit accordingly. www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publ...
September 28, 2026 at 1:26 PM
South Africa's central bank governor on how the Great Global Bond Sell-Off™ hasn't affected South Africa or other EMs much yet. (Yet.) In part because many were already under the gun in fiscal and monetary terms for years, and had reformed a bit accordingly. www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publ...