Lawrence McKay
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social
Lecturer in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading - urban-rural divides, political trust, public opinion, UK/W Europe. Sometimes music/film/F1. Professional Simpsons reference overuser.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Can foreign attacks strengthen the regime they seek to weaken? Presenting empirical evidence that the 2026 US–Israeli strikes reduced anti-regime protest and boosted pro-regime mobilization, from Sultan Mehmood, Yaroslav Prokhorskoy, and Leonard Wantchekon www.nber.org/papers/w35734
September 16, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Can foreign attacks strengthen the regime they seek to weaken? Presenting empirical evidence that the 2026 US–Israeli strikes reduced anti-regime protest and boosted pro-regime mobilization, from Sultan Mehmood, Yaroslav Prokhorskoy, and Leonard Wantchekon www.nber.org/papers/w35734
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
🧵 Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social, with @tswalve.bsky.social
"What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success"
Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
"What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success"
Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu
September 15, 2026 at 9:25 AM
🧵 Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social, with @tswalve.bsky.social
"What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success"
Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
"What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success"
Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
One of the really odd things here is that we know from @steveakehurst.bsky.social work that attacks on corruption, donations and crypto links aee the most effective against Farage.
And here they are, in essence, leaning into them - after weeks of similar stories which caused huge damage.
And here they are, in essence, leaning into them - after weeks of similar stories which caused huge damage.
September 13, 2026 at 8:30 AM
One of the really odd things here is that we know from @steveakehurst.bsky.social work that attacks on corruption, donations and crypto links aee the most effective against Farage.
And here they are, in essence, leaning into them - after weeks of similar stories which caused huge damage.
And here they are, in essence, leaning into them - after weeks of similar stories which caused huge damage.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
It's only a "stitch-up" in the sense that Reform supplied the needles, the thread, the cloth, the pattern - and the stitchers. While boasting about the previous stitching.
Much talk in Reform circles today about an unfair 'Establishment' stitch-up of a 'newcomer party', but the C4 'sting' is actually remarkably similar to the C4/ Times expose of Labour's Steve 'cab for hire' Byers in 2010 (much to Farage/ UKIP's glee, IIRC): www.theguardian.com/politics/201...
Stephen Byers claims no rules were broken during lobbying sting
Former minister says he did not break MPs' guidelines after being caught on camera offering political influence for money
www.theguardian.com
September 4, 2026 at 6:01 PM
It's only a "stitch-up" in the sense that Reform supplied the needles, the thread, the cloth, the pattern - and the stitchers. While boasting about the previous stitching.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I think the Griffith appointment is the ur-Badenoch era choice, in that you see how it could work out, but there are so many other routes to the same thing (in this case appointing a Shadow Chancellor with serious business experience) that don't come with the downside risks.
August 31, 2026 at 9:45 PM
I think the Griffith appointment is the ur-Badenoch era choice, in that you see how it could work out, but there are so many other routes to the same thing (in this case appointing a Shadow Chancellor with serious business experience) that don't come with the downside risks.
Now in Boston for (my first!) @apsa.bsky.social conference, on this awesome Thurs panel on rural resentment w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social @klunztrujillo.bsky.social @ryan-dawkins.bsky.social @stephanieternullo.bsky.social @charlesrhunt.com @quinn-bornstein.bsky.social
(and Nick Jacobs)!
(and Nick Jacobs)!
August 31, 2026 at 5:26 PM
Now in Boston for (my first!) @apsa.bsky.social conference, on this awesome Thurs panel on rural resentment w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social @klunztrujillo.bsky.social @ryan-dawkins.bsky.social @stephanieternullo.bsky.social @charlesrhunt.com @quinn-bornstein.bsky.social
(and Nick Jacobs)!
(and Nick Jacobs)!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
It's a fascinating piece, because it sounds much like how the Conservative Party used to talk about London until 2016 (culturally unobjectionable pro-business pro-housing boosterism).
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
James Cleverly: Sadiq Khan has let down London, our capital needs a champion
London’s reputation has been allowed to slip, and its problems left to fester. It needs the new energy that a native Londoner and Conservative can bring
www.thetimes.com
August 29, 2026 at 8:30 PM
It's a fascinating piece, because it sounds much like how the Conservative Party used to talk about London until 2016 (culturally unobjectionable pro-business pro-housing boosterism).
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New analysis from me at @politicalquarterly.bsky.social on electoral reform, examining the case for reform, the options we might pursue and why reform efforts failed before (despite twice coming very close to success): onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Has the Moment for Electoral Reform at Westminster Finally Arrived?
The rise to power of Andy Burnham, a vocal critic of first past the post, has put Westminster electoral reform back on the political agenda. This article examines the case for reforming the voting sy...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 28, 2026 at 7:50 AM
New analysis from me at @politicalquarterly.bsky.social on electoral reform, examining the case for reform, the options we might pursue and why reform efforts failed before (despite twice coming very close to success): onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Hi, this is the British Voter Bot. We're really proud of this latest update, which will give insight into the biggest political social survey in Britain - revealing the breadth of perspective and opinion across our country. Let us know what you think!
August 22, 2026 at 7:21 PM
Hi, this is the British Voter Bot. We're really proud of this latest update, which will give insight into the biggest political social survey in Britain - revealing the breadth of perspective and opinion across our country. Let us know what you think!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
every 6 months the Trump administration realizes lowering tariffs will lower prices, applies this insight to one specific good, and then proceeds to never introspect beyond that. It’s honestly beautiful in its stupidity.
August 21, 2026 at 10:56 AM
every 6 months the Trump administration realizes lowering tariffs will lower prices, applies this insight to one specific good, and then proceeds to never introspect beyond that. It’s honestly beautiful in its stupidity.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Wrote this article last year and still think about the Uxbridge backlash quite a lot. I think it summed up a lot of what was wrong with Starmer's Labour – and the benefits of Sadiq sticking by his guns are now clear to see.
labourlist.org/2025/04/loca...
labourlist.org/2025/04/loca...
August 19, 2026 at 8:28 AM
Wrote this article last year and still think about the Uxbridge backlash quite a lot. I think it summed up a lot of what was wrong with Starmer's Labour – and the benefits of Sadiq sticking by his guns are now clear to see.
labourlist.org/2025/04/loca...
labourlist.org/2025/04/loca...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
600 and it will have one resident voter (D Trump Jr). The Supreme Court will refuse to overturn the Executive Order creating it (on a 6-3 vote) because rotten boroughs were an accepted part of the British constitution at the time of Independence so something something Originalism.
August 15, 2026 at 8:59 PM
600 and it will have one resident voter (D Trump Jr). The Supreme Court will refuse to overturn the Executive Order creating it (on a 6-3 vote) because rotten boroughs were an accepted part of the British constitution at the time of Independence so something something Originalism.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Great piece. Want to shut down the scam tatty gift shops that litter London and the rest of the country? The secret ingredient isn't money laundering - it's tax dodging. So you need to fund HMRC properly to give it teeth again giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
How Burnham can curb Britain’s tax-dodging shops
The prime minister is missing a simple trick in his campaign to revive high streets: enforcing the basic laws of doing business
giftarticle.ft.com
August 15, 2026 at 10:38 AM
Great piece. Want to shut down the scam tatty gift shops that litter London and the rest of the country? The secret ingredient isn't money laundering - it's tax dodging. So you need to fund HMRC properly to give it teeth again giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
This is the coverage of Arday **just in the Telegraph** in the UK. This is only the first four pages of results, just in one outlet.
August 14, 2026 at 8:33 PM
This is the coverage of Arday **just in the Telegraph** in the UK. This is only the first four pages of results, just in one outlet.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
That is not the right emergency noise for this kind of generic notice, is it? I shut it before I read it the first time.
August 14, 2026 at 6:05 PM
That is not the right emergency noise for this kind of generic notice, is it? I shut it before I read it the first time.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I note with interest that Britain now has the level of state capacity at which "actually doing something" is seen as inherently suspicious.
New mad conspiracy theory just dropped.
(Answers: It's a GCHQ building, and I presume black paint and doors are available at B&Q.)
(Answers: It's a GCHQ building, and I presume black paint and doors are available at B&Q.)
July 26, 2026 at 4:47 PM
I note with interest that Britain now has the level of state capacity at which "actually doing something" is seen as inherently suspicious.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
This is why the "B..but he stood for leader before and lost! Twice!" discourse was so dumb. Maybe people staying in politics when they lose or fail & sticking at it makes them...better?
If we applied today's norms on when you're meant to leave politics, Churchill would've been gone after Gallipoli
If we applied today's norms on when you're meant to leave politics, Churchill would've been gone after Gallipoli
I don't remember Burnham having this relaxed communication manner in his 2010 or 2015 Labour leadership contests. Which shows he can learn - & if he can learn this he can learn other things too. This alone elevates him above his recent predecessors.
I'm not remotely the audience for TikTok, but if Burnham is learning lessons from probably the most gifted political communicator around right now, good for him: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
July 25, 2026 at 9:09 AM
This is why the "B..but he stood for leader before and lost! Twice!" discourse was so dumb. Maybe people staying in politics when they lose or fail & sticking at it makes them...better?
If we applied today's norms on when you're meant to leave politics, Churchill would've been gone after Gallipoli
If we applied today's norms on when you're meant to leave politics, Churchill would've been gone after Gallipoli
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Its Abby Tomlinson's world and we just live in it
Twins say Burnham has been all over their social feeds (Tiktok and Insta). Pretty clear change from the Starmer approach to comms.
July 25, 2026 at 7:51 AM
Its Abby Tomlinson's world and we just live in it
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
This point is coming up a lot today. Last year, I argued that failure to recognise this would be the downfall of Starmer's "decade of national renewal":
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
None of which is to say long term
Isn’t important, but you’re more likely to get people to think things can be better in long term if you help in the here and now and show progress along the way. There is just limited resonance for jam tomorrow style politics 18 years since 2008
Isn’t important, but you’re more likely to get people to think things can be better in long term if you help in the here and now and show progress along the way. There is just limited resonance for jam tomorrow style politics 18 years since 2008
July 22, 2026 at 8:16 AM
This point is coming up a lot today. Last year, I argued that failure to recognise this would be the downfall of Starmer's "decade of national renewal":
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
One for @timbale.bsky.social ? BBC Breakfast 06:33.
“That’s the statistical situation but what’s the reality.” Then does vox pop.
“That’s the statistical situation but what’s the reality.” Then does vox pop.
July 22, 2026 at 6:25 AM
One for @timbale.bsky.social ? BBC Breakfast 06:33.
“That’s the statistical situation but what’s the reality.” Then does vox pop.
“That’s the statistical situation but what’s the reality.” Then does vox pop.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I like to think he's done this to make political journalists look stupid, and honestly I admire it.
July 20, 2026 at 5:19 PM
I like to think he's done this to make political journalists look stupid, and honestly I admire it.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
A real shame, this. One of the best ministerial appointments of recent times:
The day’s first casualty: James Timpson resigns as prisons minister. This is a big surprise! Timpson had a long history as a prisons reformer before entering government and seen as one of Starmer’s more innovative & exciting appointments. He’s also delivered a big change programme in gov. So: why?
Prisons minister Lord Timpson quits government
The businessman said it was an "honour" to serve in the post, but the BBC understands he feels he has achieved all he can in the role.
www.bbc.co.uk
July 20, 2026 at 10:11 AM
A real shame, this. One of the best ministerial appointments of recent times:
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
“And there’s an intriguing hint in an interview Burnham has given to the Times today that he wants to look at increasing the rate of the personal allowance ... I understand Unite, the trade union, has pushed for this in talks with the incoming PM.”
July 20, 2026 at 10:45 AM
“And there’s an intriguing hint in an interview Burnham has given to the Times today that he wants to look at increasing the rate of the personal allowance ... I understand Unite, the trade union, has pushed for this in talks with the incoming PM.”
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Everybody is reading levels of precision into this that the underlying data just isn't robust enough to support.
They don't like Burnham in the Thames Estuary www.economist.com/britain/2026...
July 20, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Everybody is reading levels of precision into this that the underlying data just isn't robust enough to support.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Scrap the Romesh thing just clip Wayne Rooney saying he thought the half time show was crap and the licence fee QR code
July 19, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Scrap the Romesh thing just clip Wayne Rooney saying he thought the half time show was crap and the licence fee QR code