Luis A. Mendez
@mendezmovierpt.bsky.social
Boricua. Floridian. Theist. Writer. Podcaster. Film Critic. Oscars Predictor. Occasional Psephologist. Member Of The CACF, The IFSC, And The PRCA.
https://linktr.ee/MendezMovieRPT
https://linktr.ee/MendezMovieRPT
Pinned
The second-to-last weekend in September has arrived, which means I'm officially in spooky season mode. This thread will keep track of all my seasonal watches. 🎃
Reminder: Biden's margin of defeat in Kansas was lesser than *Obama 2008* in the state, and the state shifted left relative to the nation in 2024. Next to IA, Its the most D leaning of the great plains states. The state coming close or outright flipping blue in this environment makes sense to me.
Starting to believe in Kansas...
Kansas Jayhawks Big Jay Mascot Dancing
ALT: Kansas Jayhawks Big Jay Mascot Dancing
static.klipy.com
October 7, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Reminder: Biden's margin of defeat in Kansas was lesser than *Obama 2008* in the state, and the state shifted left relative to the nation in 2024. Next to IA, Its the most D leaning of the great plains states. The state coming close or outright flipping blue in this environment makes sense to me.
Starting to believe in Kansas...
Kansas Jayhawks Big Jay Mascot Dancing
ALT: Kansas Jayhawks Big Jay Mascot Dancing
static.klipy.com
October 7, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Starting to believe in Kansas...
Fact Check: Mostly True, those that didn't include partisan pollsters especially benefited. The GB was regularly showing a tighter race than Biden's numbers would have you think. I wasn't shocked the GOP underperformed at all. 2024 polling was also *much* better than the 2020 disaster.
Once again, 2022 US Senate polling averages were excellent.
October 7, 2026 at 2:38 AM
Fact Check: Mostly True, those that didn't include partisan pollsters especially benefited. The GB was regularly showing a tighter race than Biden's numbers would have you think. I wasn't shocked the GOP underperformed at all. 2024 polling was also *much* better than the 2020 disaster.
H/T to Ethan C7 of Election Twitter for the primary turnout data, but we now have 3 historically good predictors of midterm environments (Gallup PID + primary turnout + special elections) pointing to a D+10-13 year...polls are averaging around D+7-9. ~1 month to go.
October 5, 2026 at 3:01 PM
H/T to Ethan C7 of Election Twitter for the primary turnout data, but we now have 3 historically good predictors of midterm environments (Gallup PID + primary turnout + special elections) pointing to a D+10-13 year...polls are averaging around D+7-9. ~1 month to go.
Amazing how much has changed in the last 2 years. GOP was throwing parties and declaring a new era of cultural and political dominance over a 1.5 pt race where they way underperformed the fundamentals. Maybe the media and the corporations should stop bowing down to them? Washed.
Gallup's PID survey is one of the most respected and predictive surveys in the polling world. It showed a close environment before the 2024 and 2022 elections. It showed a Dem edge in 2020 and 2018...It is D+11 going into 2026. Largest lead for Dems since Obama came into office with a ~68% rating.
October 5, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Amazing how much has changed in the last 2 years. GOP was throwing parties and declaring a new era of cultural and political dominance over a 1.5 pt race where they way underperformed the fundamentals. Maybe the media and the corporations should stop bowing down to them? Washed.
Gallup's PID survey is one of the most respected and predictive surveys in the polling world. It showed a close environment before the 2024 and 2022 elections. It showed a Dem edge in 2020 and 2018...It is D+11 going into 2026. Largest lead for Dems since Obama came into office with a ~68% rating.
October 5, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Gallup's PID survey is one of the most respected and predictive surveys in the polling world. It showed a close environment before the 2024 and 2022 elections. It showed a Dem edge in 2020 and 2018...It is D+11 going into 2026. Largest lead for Dems since Obama came into office with a ~68% rating.
I'd like to see more polling for that race but the latest poll had it at R+1. Typically Dems tend to underperform OR Gov and win with a lot of late deciders, so we'll see.
Shaking my GD head in fury at OR-GOV because I know it's earned.
October 4, 2026 at 4:53 PM
I'd like to see more polling for that race but the latest poll had it at R+1. Typically Dems tend to underperform OR Gov and win with a lot of late deciders, so we'll see.
Some of the most interesting changes since last week: Nebraska shifted from close D to close R, while Kansas is now tilting towards D. And yeah, Idaho and South Dakota seem competitive, though I want more higher quality polling there. Overall, even a typical poll miss can only cushion Rs so much.
10.04.2026 U.S Midterms Election Projections
- House
🟦 235 🟥 200
- Senate
🟦 54 🟥 46
- Governors
🟦 25 🟥 25
- Analysis
Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.
- House
🟦 235 🟥 200
- Senate
🟦 54 🟥 46
- Governors
🟦 25 🟥 25
- Analysis
Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.
October 4, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Some of the most interesting changes since last week: Nebraska shifted from close D to close R, while Kansas is now tilting towards D. And yeah, Idaho and South Dakota seem competitive, though I want more higher quality polling there. Overall, even a typical poll miss can only cushion Rs so much.
10.04.2026 U.S Midterms Election Projections
- House
🟦 235 🟥 200
- Senate
🟦 54 🟥 46
- Governors
🟦 25 🟥 25
- Analysis
Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.
- House
🟦 235 🟥 200
- Senate
🟦 54 🟥 46
- Governors
🟦 25 🟥 25
- Analysis
Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.
October 4, 2026 at 4:33 PM
10.04.2026 U.S Midterms Election Projections
- House
🟦 235 🟥 200
- Senate
🟦 54 🟥 46
- Governors
🟦 25 🟥 25
- Analysis
Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.
- House
🟦 235 🟥 200
- Senate
🟦 54 🟥 46
- Governors
🟦 25 🟥 25
- Analysis
Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.
Had a really fun time at Howl-O-Scream at Busch Gardens with the twin bro tonight. The Anaconda house was easily the best one, followed closely by the Mars Alien house.
October 4, 2026 at 2:44 AM
Had a really fun time at Howl-O-Scream at Busch Gardens with the twin bro tonight. The Anaconda house was easily the best one, followed closely by the Mars Alien house.
Saturday Night Plans, Howl-O-Scream at Busch Gardens
October 3, 2026 at 10:03 PM
Saturday Night Plans, Howl-O-Scream at Busch Gardens
You can now read a full-length written review from me on what may be the most divisive and debated-about film of the year, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's #DiggerMovie. Spoiler: I *really* dug it.
🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/digger
🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/digger
Film Review: Digger
A Man. A Plan. A Meltdown.
www.mendezmoviereport.com
October 3, 2026 at 8:53 PM
You can now read a full-length written review from me on what may be the most divisive and debated-about film of the year, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's #DiggerMovie. Spoiler: I *really* dug it.
🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/digger
🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/digger
"A bit of a disappointment"
That's one way to look at them I guess
That's one way to look at them I guess
October 2, 2026 at 1:13 PM
"A bit of a disappointment"
That's one way to look at them I guess
That's one way to look at them I guess
Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, and South Dakota Senate polling this cycle
Hello There
ALT: Hello There
static.klipy.com
October 2, 2026 at 11:43 AM
Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, and South Dakota Senate polling this cycle
The legacy of John Roberts
September 30, 2026 at 11:59 AM
The legacy of John Roberts
Harvard's polls are run by Mark Penn, a Trump fan whose polls are regularly very biased towards the GOP. And even in his latest polling they find voters now pine for the days of Biden's economy. The economy that (alongside his age) gobbled up and destroyed his presidency. Massive vibe shift.
September 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM
Harvard's polls are run by Mark Penn, a Trump fan whose polls are regularly very biased towards the GOP. And even in his latest polling they find voters now pine for the days of Biden's economy. The economy that (alongside his age) gobbled up and destroyed his presidency. Massive vibe shift.
Could be a coincidence given the convention happened around Labor Day, which is when most voters basically start making up their minds + when pollsters shift to LV models, but I have noticed the bottom seem to start falling beneath the GOP after their Dallas convention.
September 30, 2026 at 11:16 AM
Could be a coincidence given the convention happened around Labor Day, which is when most voters basically start making up their minds + when pollsters shift to LV models, but I have noticed the bottom seem to start falling beneath the GOP after their Dallas convention.
The Schmitt gaffe was pure cinema. Schmitt looking on like he just pulled a Perry Mason. Kennedy pointing to the sign like " gotcha!". Senator Stepford Wife, I mean Britt, looking on as she realized what a bunch of dumbasses they look like. Klob mocking Schmitt (and she was still nicer than I'd be).
September 30, 2026 at 1:41 AM
The Schmitt gaffe was pure cinema. Schmitt looking on like he just pulled a Perry Mason. Kennedy pointing to the sign like " gotcha!". Senator Stepford Wife, I mean Britt, looking on as she realized what a bunch of dumbasses they look like. Klob mocking Schmitt (and she was still nicer than I'd be).
Two high quality pollsters showing Dems up 15 and 16 in the Generic Ballot this morning.
September 29, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Two high quality pollsters showing Dems up 15 and 16 in the Generic Ballot this morning.
Embrace the hopium
September 29, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Embrace the hopium
To give folks the picture on what scale we're talking here. If polls are right on about D+8 that's Dems at 230+ seats in the House and probably barely flipping the Senate. D+12 (which primary turnout hints at) would mean 250+ Dem House seats are in play and 54-56 D Senate seats.
D+12 is what the historically non-polling indicators like primary turnout point to. The numbers I'm seeing in polling is hinting at more D+8 which would still produce a big blue year. D+12 would be euphoric type of stuff. Like certain red southern states are suddenly Tossups euphoric.
It'll be a good night for Dems. But is it D+12?
September 29, 2026 at 11:53 AM
To give folks the picture on what scale we're talking here. If polls are right on about D+8 that's Dems at 230+ seats in the House and probably barely flipping the Senate. D+12 (which primary turnout hints at) would mean 250+ Dem House seats are in play and 54-56 D Senate seats.
D+12 is what the historically non-polling indicators like primary turnout point to. The numbers I'm seeing in polling is hinting at more D+8 which would still produce a big blue year. D+12 would be euphoric type of stuff. Like certain red southern states are suddenly Tossups euphoric.
It'll be a good night for Dems. But is it D+12?
September 29, 2026 at 11:47 AM
D+12 is what the historically non-polling indicators like primary turnout point to. The numbers I'm seeing in polling is hinting at more D+8 which would still produce a big blue year. D+12 would be euphoric type of stuff. Like certain red southern states are suddenly Tossups euphoric.
Too many of you don't see the vision of the blue tsunami. Dooming about good polls. Dooming about good forecasts. Dooming about past (minor) polling misses. The time to doom was 2 years ago, this is a whole other environment.
September 29, 2026 at 11:41 AM
Too many of you don't see the vision of the blue tsunami. Dooming about good polls. Dooming about good forecasts. Dooming about past (minor) polling misses. The time to doom was 2 years ago, this is a whole other environment.