Nate Silver Tweets
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@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
It's funny how people who "forecast" elections on vibes can't comprehend using an algorithm. Like maybe it's wrong; lots of design choices in building a model. But we do our thinking when building the model. Once it's built there aren't many decisions to be made from day to day.
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October 4, 2026 at 2:45 AM
It's funny how people who "forecast" elections on vibes can't comprehend using an algorithm. Like maybe it's wrong; lots of design choices in building a model. But we do our thinking when building the model. Once it's built there aren't many decisions to be made from day to day.
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All right, that Model Talk is published. Since it’s October and those Halloween pop-up stories are everywhere, I wanted to talk about everyone’s most feared monstrosity: Systematic Polling Error. It’s a real thing.
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October 3, 2026 at 5:19 PM
All right, that Model Talk is published. Since it’s October and those Halloween pop-up stories are everywhere, I wanted to talk about everyone’s most feared monstrosity: Systematic Polling Error. It’s a real thing.
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So yeah, those NYT polls helped Democrats. Not as much as you might think because FLIPR was already pretty optimistic for Dems, but still...
Repost of @AlexThomp:
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Repost of @AlexThomp:
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October 3, 2026 at 4:45 PM
So yeah, those NYT polls helped Democrats. Not as much as you might think because FLIPR was already pretty optimistic for Dems, but still...
Repost of @AlexThomp:
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Repost of @AlexThomp:
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Aaron Rodgers is flirting with the replacement-level line. We have him in the Geno Smith Zone.
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QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back for the new NFL season.
www.natesilver.net
October 2, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Aaron Rodgers is flirting with the replacement-level line. We have him in the Geno Smith Zone.
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I've seen people ask why include 2025 and the answer is that well it's the most recent election, seems worth looking at. Incidentally, polls had a R bias in 2017 and were unbiased in 2021.
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October 1, 2026 at 8:39 PM
I've seen people ask why include 2025 and the answer is that well it's the most recent election, seems worth looking at. Incidentally, polls had a R bias in 2017 and were unbiased in 2021.
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FLIPR update. Race-by-race polls not as bad for Republicans this week. Gas prices down slightly, too. OTOH, oil futures were up a bunch today and Trump's approval rating again hit another new low.
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FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
www.natesilver.net
October 1, 2026 at 7:29 PM
FLIPR update. Race-by-race polls not as bad for Republicans this week. Gas prices down slightly, too. OTOH, oil futures were up a bunch today and Trump's approval rating again hit another new low.
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The direction of polling error in recent years: * 2008: Unbiased * 2010: Unbiased * 2012: R bias * 2014: D bias * 2016: D bias * 2018: Unbiased * 2020: Even bigger D bias * 2022: Unbiased * 2024: D bias, less than 2016/2020 * 2025 (e.g. NJ/VA): Big R bias
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October 1, 2026 at 3:44 PM
The direction of polling error in recent years: * 2008: Unbiased * 2010: Unbiased * 2012: R bias * 2014: D bias * 2016: D bias * 2018: Unbiased * 2020: Even bigger D bias * 2022: Unbiased * 2024: D bias, less than 2016/2020 * 2025 (e.g. NJ/VA): Big R bias
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This map was more interesting than I was expecting. Note that deep red streak in Appalachian/southeastern Ohio. But it's not really present in similar counties in Pennsylvania.
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October 1, 2026 at 11:54 AM
This map was more interesting than I was expecting. Note that deep red streak in Appalachian/southeastern Ohio. But it's not really present in similar counties in Pennsylvania.
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It's only been 3 games but it's been a good season for us Brock Purdy admirers / Justin Hebert skeptics.
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QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back for the new NFL season.
www.natesilver.net
September 30, 2026 at 10:09 PM
It's only been 3 games but it's been a good season for us Brock Purdy admirers / Justin Hebert skeptics.
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We're working to get our NFL content out earlier in the week. Not that it takes an advanced statistical model to tell you this, but every team in the NFC South is already projected to have a losing record again.
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September 30, 2026 at 5:19 AM
We're working to get our NFL content out earlier in the week. Not that it takes an advanced statistical model to tell you this, but every team in the NFC South is already projected to have a losing record again.
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This is one of the greater self-owns of all time in the admittedly somewhat undignified history of the U.S. Senate, just how Eric Schmitt thinks he's fucking Matlock.
Repost of @sahilkapur:
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Repost of @sahilkapur:
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September 30, 2026 at 2:39 AM
This is one of the greater self-owns of all time in the admittedly somewhat undignified history of the U.S. Senate, just how Eric Schmitt thinks he's fucking Matlock.
Repost of @sahilkapur:
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Repost of @sahilkapur:
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September 29, 2026 at 11:29 PM
September 29, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Repost by @NateSilver538
RT by @NateSilver538: Gif
Repost of @NateSilver538:
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September 29, 2026 at 1:39 AM
Repost by @NateSilver538
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Repost of @NateSilver538:
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September 28, 2026 at 8:34 PM
It's time for my favorite biannual Silver Bulletin feature, or NBA Future of the Franchise rankings! Our panel ranked all 30 franchises by their expected number of championships over the next 10 seasons. 30. Clippers 29. Kings 28. Pelicans 27. Bucks 26. Nets 25. Wizards
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September 28, 2026 at 7:29 PM
It's time for my favorite biannual Silver Bulletin feature, or NBA Future of the Franchise rankings! Our panel ranked all 30 franchises by their expected number of championships over the next 10 seasons. 30. Clippers 29. Kings 28. Pelicans 27. Bucks 26. Nets 25. Wizards
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There's slippery terrain between "AI as an economic sector is a potential financial bubble" (plausible) and "AI as a technology is just hype" (YMMV but I think basically proven wrong at this point). People often assert the former claim to cover for bad takes about the latter.
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September 27, 2026 at 3:19 AM
There's slippery terrain between "AI as an economic sector is a potential financial bubble" (plausible) and "AI as a technology is just hype" (YMMV but I think basically proven wrong at this point). People often assert the former claim to cover for bad takes about the latter.
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AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.
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September 26, 2026 at 7:29 PM
AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.
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Hey folks, we're now hoping to update our ELWAY ratings 2x a week instead of 1x. So the new ratings are in, including the Thursday Night game and updated injury info. Here are our current injury-free (left) and injury-adjusted ratings.
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September 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Hey folks, we're now hoping to update our ELWAY ratings 2x a week instead of 1x. So the new ratings are in, including the Thursday Night game and updated injury info. Here are our current injury-free (left) and injury-adjusted ratings.
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The Vermont governor race is a fun one. Only UNH has polled the race, and they now have the Democrat ahead. But Scott won by 52 points in 2024 and all the expert raters have it solid R! FLIPR has no idea.
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September 25, 2026 at 4:54 PM
The Vermont governor race is a fun one. Only UNH has polled the race, and they now have the Democrat ahead. But Scott won by 52 points in 2024 and all the expert raters have it solid R! FLIPR has no idea.
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September 25, 2026 at 3:04 AM
I wrote a whole book on this subject, and the thesis is about the normative and practical importance of human agency. It doesn't help that people like you have no idea WTF AI can do right now.
Repost of @matthewstoller:
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Repost of @matthewstoller:
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September 25, 2026 at 2:49 AM
I wrote a whole book on this subject, and the thesis is about the normative and practical importance of human agency. It doesn't help that people like you have no idea WTF AI can do right now.
Repost of @matthewstoller:
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Repost of @matthewstoller:
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The whole problem is that the AP's language is inaccurate and politically charged. I don't particularly trust the labs. But most (certainly not all) people with real expertise in this field would consider their guidance to be presumptive at best.
Repost of @adamjohnsonCHI:
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Repost of @adamjohnsonCHI:
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September 25, 2026 at 12:54 AM
The whole problem is that the AP's language is inaccurate and politically charged. I don't particularly trust the labs. But most (certainly not all) people with real expertise in this field would consider their guidance to be presumptive at best.
Repost of @adamjohnsonCHI:
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Repost of @adamjohnsonCHI:
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IDK if you polled some unbiased sample of experts in the field (granted, "experts" and "unbiased" are doing a lot of work there), I imagine most of them would roughly agree with the idea that AI models "think," at least for more advanced tasks.
Repost of @EoinHiggins_:
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Repost of @EoinHiggins_:
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September 25, 2026 at 12:19 AM
IDK if you polled some unbiased sample of experts in the field (granted, "experts" and "unbiased" are doing a lot of work there), I imagine most of them would roughly agree with the idea that AI models "think," at least for more advanced tasks.
Repost of @EoinHiggins_:
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Repost of @EoinHiggins_:
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Interesting that Dems' generic ballot gains have come from undecideds rather than Republicans, whose numbers have held steady.
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September 24, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Interesting that Dems' generic ballot gains have come from undecideds rather than Republicans, whose numbers have held steady.
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