Owen Winter
@owenwntr.bsky.social
Covering politics, elections and data at The Economist
Pinned
Owen Winter
@owenwntr.bsky.social
· May 14
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Outside a polling station in Holborn
October 8, 2026 at 1:26 PM
Outside a polling station in Holborn
Our polling average shows the People's Party with a six point lead in Spain 🇪🇸 www.economist.com/interactive/...
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
October 8, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Our polling average shows the People's Party with a six point lead in Spain 🇪🇸 www.economist.com/interactive/...
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
In the four polls conducted after Andy Burnham's conference speech, Labour's voting intention is 28%. That's 2.5 points higher than the pre-conference polls, on average (YouGov +3, Opinium +2, Find Out Now +3, Survation +2)
October 6, 2026 at 10:05 AM
In the four polls conducted after Andy Burnham's conference speech, Labour's voting intention is 28%. That's 2.5 points higher than the pre-conference polls, on average (YouGov +3, Opinium +2, Find Out Now +3, Survation +2)
According to an average of recent polls, PP starts the Spanish election campaign with a lead of 6 points over PSOE
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
October 6, 2026 at 9:14 AM
According to an average of recent polls, PP starts the Spanish election campaign with a lead of 6 points over PSOE
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
PP 32 (-1 since 2023)
PSOE 26 (-6)
Vox 19 (+7)
Nationalists 8 (=)
Sumar 6 (-6)
Podemos 3 (+3)
Britain’s Greens have voted, shamefully, to say Zionism is racism
economist.com/leaders/2026...
from The Economist
economist.com/leaders/2026...
from The Economist
Britain’s Greens have voted, shamefully, to say Zionism is racism
It is a damning moment for a political party with pretensions to power
economist.com
October 4, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Britain’s Greens have voted, shamefully, to say Zionism is racism
economist.com/leaders/2026...
from The Economist
economist.com/leaders/2026...
from The Economist
I’ve written this week about the unusual glut of US House seats (exacerbated by gerrymandering) which voted for Trump by 10-20 percentage points. economist.com/united-state...
Democrats’ blue wave now threatens to sweep over this wall of Republican districts
Democrats’ blue wave now threatens to sweep over this wall of Republican districts
October 4, 2026 at 4:01 PM
I’ve written this week about the unusual glut of US House seats (exacerbated by gerrymandering) which voted for Trump by 10-20 percentage points. economist.com/united-state...
Democrats’ blue wave now threatens to sweep over this wall of Republican districts
Democrats’ blue wave now threatens to sweep over this wall of Republican districts
Reposted by Owen Winter
NEW: How does Burnham’s conference speech land with voters when they see it it?
In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social
Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇
In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social
Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇
October 1, 2026 at 9:21 AM
NEW: How does Burnham’s conference speech land with voters when they see it it?
In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social
Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇
In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social
Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇
Reposted by Owen Winter
Yes. The decision to set up a huge APPG, Sarah Olney’s 10-minute rule bill in December 2024, the consistent op-eds, the focus on calling for a “commission”, the parliamentary debates, the pro-reform amendment to the Representation of the People Bill – all helped make Burnham’s commitment possible
Labour's pro-PR campaigners (L4ND) have been incredibly focussed and effective over the past few years. A model of how to raise an issue up the Labour Party's agenda www.politics.co.uk/2026/09/andy...
Andy Burnham announces national commission on electoral reform - Politics.co.uk
Andy Burnham has announced a new national commission on electoral reform, and pledged to put a commitment to change the voting system in Labour‘s next manifesto. Speaking to Labour conference, the pri...
www.politics.co.uk
October 1, 2026 at 9:58 AM
Yes. The decision to set up a huge APPG, Sarah Olney’s 10-minute rule bill in December 2024, the consistent op-eds, the focus on calling for a “commission”, the parliamentary debates, the pro-reform amendment to the Representation of the People Bill – all helped make Burnham’s commitment possible
Greens slip into fifth place in our poll tracker, while Reform are only two points off third place. Two parties that dominated discourse in 2025 on their way down
October 1, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Greens slip into fifth place in our poll tracker, while Reform are only two points off third place. Two parties that dominated discourse in 2025 on their way down
Labour's pro-PR campaigners (L4ND) have been incredibly focussed and effective over the past few years. A model of how to raise an issue up the Labour Party's agenda www.politics.co.uk/2026/09/andy...
Andy Burnham announces national commission on electoral reform - Politics.co.uk
Andy Burnham has announced a new national commission on electoral reform, and pledged to put a commitment to change the voting system in Labour‘s next manifesto. Speaking to Labour conference, the pri...
www.politics.co.uk
October 1, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Labour's pro-PR campaigners (L4ND) have been incredibly focussed and effective over the past few years. A model of how to raise an issue up the Labour Party's agenda www.politics.co.uk/2026/09/andy...
This week Democrats lead by 15 points in our Economist/YouGov poll. Huge
The latest Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's approval -28 and Democrats leading the generic ballot by 14 points among likely voters. If replicated in November it would be the biggest popular vote victory for either party since 1976
September 29, 2026 at 1:13 PM
This week Democrats lead by 15 points in our Economist/YouGov poll. Huge
New YouGov MRP is dreadful for Labour in Wales yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
September 24, 2026 at 7:45 AM
New YouGov MRP is dreadful for Labour in Wales yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
I wonder how parties/tactical voting orgs are prepping for the first LLM election. I assume it's harder to convince ChatGPT to regurgitate a dodgy bar chart than stuffing it through a voter's door
September 23, 2026 at 9:55 AM
I wonder how parties/tactical voting orgs are prepping for the first LLM election. I assume it's harder to convince ChatGPT to regurgitate a dodgy bar chart than stuffing it through a voter's door
Dems keep rising in our Senate forecast, now up to 62% chance of winning control. Their gains have been concentrated in red-ish states (OH, KS, TX, IA), offsetting some losses in bluer states (MN, MI, NH)
September 23, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Dems keep rising in our Senate forecast, now up to 62% chance of winning control. Their gains have been concentrated in red-ish states (OH, KS, TX, IA), offsetting some losses in bluer states (MN, MI, NH)
Make Britain Great Again
“He said he was committed to making Britain feel good about itself again, through setting a clear direction and reindustrialisation, and making sure this was a draw-a-line moment for the country.” No 10 read out of Trump-Burnham bilat
September 22, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Make Britain Great Again
The latest Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's approval -28 and Democrats leading the generic ballot by 14 points among likely voters. If replicated in November it would be the biggest popular vote victory for either party since 1976
September 22, 2026 at 1:49 PM
The latest Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's approval -28 and Democrats leading the generic ballot by 14 points among likely voters. If replicated in November it would be the biggest popular vote victory for either party since 1976
For the first time since April, our poll tracker shows Flávio Bolsonaro overtaking Lula in the second round of Brazil's presidential election www.economist.com/interactive/...
September 21, 2026 at 11:03 AM
For the first time since April, our poll tracker shows Flávio Bolsonaro overtaking Lula in the second round of Brazil's presidential election www.economist.com/interactive/...
The latest Democratic win probabilities from our Senate forecast:
NC 97% (44th Dem seat - most likely D flip)
GA 90% (45)
NH 81% (46)
MN 81% (47)
ME 76% (48)
OH 69% (49)
MI 69% (50 - most likely R flip)
TX 60% (51)
AK 54% (52)
IA 35% (53)
KS 30% (54)
FL 20% (55)
NE 18% (56)
SC 12% (57)
NC 97% (44th Dem seat - most likely D flip)
GA 90% (45)
NH 81% (46)
MN 81% (47)
ME 76% (48)
OH 69% (49)
MI 69% (50 - most likely R flip)
TX 60% (51)
AK 54% (52)
IA 35% (53)
KS 30% (54)
FL 20% (55)
NE 18% (56)
SC 12% (57)
September 18, 2026 at 11:49 AM
The latest Democratic win probabilities from our Senate forecast:
NC 97% (44th Dem seat - most likely D flip)
GA 90% (45)
NH 81% (46)
MN 81% (47)
ME 76% (48)
OH 69% (49)
MI 69% (50 - most likely R flip)
TX 60% (51)
AK 54% (52)
IA 35% (53)
KS 30% (54)
FL 20% (55)
NE 18% (56)
SC 12% (57)
NC 97% (44th Dem seat - most likely D flip)
GA 90% (45)
NH 81% (46)
MN 81% (47)
ME 76% (48)
OH 69% (49)
MI 69% (50 - most likely R flip)
TX 60% (51)
AK 54% (52)
IA 35% (53)
KS 30% (54)
FL 20% (55)
NE 18% (56)
SC 12% (57)
It's a bumper day for Democrats' senate polling
September 17, 2026 at 3:47 PM
It's a bumper day for Democrats' senate polling
On forecasts vs experts, here's how our House model compares with Cook's race ratings:
Solid D - 100% average Dem win probability
Likely D - 100%
Lean D - 95%
Toss up - 77%
Lean R - 54%
Likely R - 33%
Solid R - 3%
Solid D - 100% average Dem win probability
Likely D - 100%
Lean D - 95%
Toss up - 77%
Lean R - 54%
Likely R - 33%
Solid R - 3%
September 16, 2026 at 5:35 PM
On forecasts vs experts, here's how our House model compares with Cook's race ratings:
Solid D - 100% average Dem win probability
Likely D - 100%
Lean D - 95%
Toss up - 77%
Lean R - 54%
Likely R - 33%
Solid R - 3%
Solid D - 100% average Dem win probability
Likely D - 100%
Lean D - 95%
Toss up - 77%
Lean R - 54%
Likely R - 33%
Solid R - 3%
Reposted by Owen Winter
It's both bizarrely cynical and bizarrely naive at the same time to do a video in bad and halting Urdu, to a constituency with high levels of English proficiency, very few Urdu speakers, and then to post it on X. Is the plan to replace Labour as the UK's number one producers of 'who is this for?'
September 15, 2026 at 10:03 AM
It's both bizarrely cynical and bizarrely naive at the same time to do a video in bad and halting Urdu, to a constituency with high levels of English proficiency, very few Urdu speakers, and then to post it on X. Is the plan to replace Labour as the UK's number one producers of 'who is this for?'
Reposted by Owen Winter
Good thread, great replies from Owen and many others in it.
disagreeing with Urdu election material is silly. the more interesting question is why Polanski is campaigning in Urdu in a constituency with hardly any Urdu speakers
September 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Good thread, great replies from Owen and many others in it.
disagreeing with Urdu election material is silly. the more interesting question is why Polanski is campaigning in Urdu in a constituency with hardly any Urdu speakers
September 15, 2026 at 9:20 AM
disagreeing with Urdu election material is silly. the more interesting question is why Polanski is campaigning in Urdu in a constituency with hardly any Urdu speakers
Sweden's centre-left parties managed to turn out many more voters in areas with large migrant populations than in 2022
September 15, 2026 at 9:03 AM
Sweden's centre-left parties managed to turn out many more voters in areas with large migrant populations than in 2022