PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social
Head of Climate Analytics, Trend Analytics / Interactive Brokers; Adjunct faculty (lecturer) in Energy Policy & Climate at Johns Hopkins; Sr. Fellow at The Breakthrough Institute.
Prediction markets have a documented history of aggregating and distilling information into a well-calibrated price or probability that represents the “wisdom of the crowd”....
September 16, 2026 at 3:34 PM
Prediction markets have a documented history of aggregating and distilling information into a well-calibrated price or probability that represents the “wisdom of the crowd”....
Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse? Prediction Markets Can Quantify Sentiment
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Will the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse? Prediction Markets Can Quantify Sentiment | IBKR Campus US
Prediction markets can quantify sentiment on the possibility of a major ocean current collapsing due to climate change.
www.interactivebrokers.com
January 16, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse? Prediction Markets Can Quantify Sentiment
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
It was a pleasure to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing my favorite framework for thinking about the risks from extreme weather: Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podca...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podca...
December 18, 2025 at 8:53 PM
It was a pleasure to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing my favorite framework for thinking about the risks from extreme weather: Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podca...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podca...
Does the range of plausible temperatures in a next-day forecast translate into any substantial difference in expectations for the day’s energy expenditure?
A simple calculation shows that the answer is yes.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
A simple calculation shows that the answer is yes.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Energy expenditure implications of next-day temperature forecasts | IBKR Campus US
The range of plausible next-day temperature outcomes can translate into millions of dollars in differences in energy expenditure.
www.interactivebrokers.com
December 18, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Does the range of plausible temperatures in a next-day forecast translate into any substantial difference in expectations for the day’s energy expenditure?
A simple calculation shows that the answer is yes.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
A simple calculation shows that the answer is yes.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
ForecastEx has launched weather-forecast prediction markets, allowing participants to take financial positions on the daily high temperatures for an initial offering of 10 US cities.
In this article, I lay out tools for forecasting & IDing mispricings.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
In this article, I lay out tools for forecasting & IDing mispricings.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Daily High Temperature Markets at ForecastEx | IBKR Campus US
A guide for participants and observers of daily temperature forecast markets at ForecastEx.
www.interactivebrokers.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:08 PM
ForecastEx has launched weather-forecast prediction markets, allowing participants to take financial positions on the daily high temperatures for an initial offering of 10 US cities.
In this article, I lay out tools for forecasting & IDing mispricings.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
In this article, I lay out tools for forecasting & IDing mispricings.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
It was great to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing the long-term rise in global agricultural productivity and the headwinds from climate change.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Climate Change’s Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Security | IBKR Campus US
Exploring climate change’s impact on global agriculture and food security.
www.interactivebrokers.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:22 PM
It was great to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing the long-term rise in global agricultural productivity and the headwinds from climate change.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
October 29, 2025 at 8:01 PM
ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
October 27, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
Glad this climate and energy conversation is up and running.
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
October 13, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Glad this climate and energy conversation is up and running.
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
October 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025].
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025] | IBKR Campus US
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com
September 10, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025].
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
August 27, 2025 at 3:33 PM
There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
I had a great time participating in the @srm360.bsky.social
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
August 27, 2025 at 9:14 AM
I had a great time participating in the @srm360.bsky.social
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
August 21, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Hurricane Erin exhibited extreme rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with wind speeds increasing by 75 mph, from 70 mph at 8:00 AM Friday to 145 mph (Category 4) at 8:00 AM Saturday.
Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Hurricane Prediction Market Commentary 8/15/2025 | IBKR Campus US
The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.
www.interactivebrokers.com
August 16, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Hurricane Erin exhibited extreme rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with wind speeds increasing by 75 mph, from 70 mph at 8:00 AM Friday to 145 mph (Category 4) at 8:00 AM Saturday.
Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Hurricane Prediction Market Commentary 8/15/2025 | IBKR Campus US
The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.
www.interactivebrokers.com
August 15, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Nice overview by
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Why wildfire fuels matter more in a warming climate
A warming climate has made it more challenging to deal with wildfires by extending the number of days they can occur and leading to faster-growing larger fires that can have major impacts on air quali...
nbcbayarea.com
June 13, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Nice overview by
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
Incidentally, I did a little back-of-envelope calculation for folks in my research group.
February 4, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Incidentally, I did a little back-of-envelope calculation for folks in my research group.
“Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.”
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
How much did increasing “Climate Whiplash” impact the Los Angeles Fires?
“Climate whiplash” appears to be a larger advance in climate science marketing than in climate science.
www.breakthroughjournal.org
January 29, 2025 at 7:23 PM
“Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.”
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...