Paul Swinney
@paulswinney.bsky.social
Chief Economist at The Data City. Formerly of Centre for Cities. Posting mainly about economics.
We aren’t measuring the economy properly. This leaves policymakers flying blind.
See my column in this week’s
@observeruk.bsky.social
See my column in this week’s
@observeruk.bsky.social
You can’t grow an economy if you can’t see it, but that’s what the government is trying to do
‘Frontier’ technology firms are the most productive part of the UK economy, but largely absent from official data, leaving policymakers flying blind
✍️ @paulswinney.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4zdIaO7
‘Frontier’ technology firms are the most productive part of the UK economy, but largely absent from official data, leaving policymakers flying blind
✍️ @paulswinney.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4zdIaO7
You can’t grow an economy if you can’t see it, but that’s...
‘Frontier’ technology firms are the most productive part of the UK economy, but largely absent from official data, leaving policymakers flying blind
bit.ly
October 5, 2026 at 9:19 AM
We aren’t measuring the economy properly. This leaves policymakers flying blind.
See my column in this week’s
@observeruk.bsky.social
See my column in this week’s
@observeruk.bsky.social
‘Reindustrialisation’
Another ill-defined phrase to follow ‘rebalance’, ‘turbocharge’ & ‘level up’ the economy.
We do this because the most important part of the economy is invisible in the statistics.
This should worry every economist and policymaker.
Another ill-defined phrase to follow ‘rebalance’, ‘turbocharge’ & ‘level up’ the economy.
We do this because the most important part of the economy is invisible in the statistics.
This should worry every economist and policymaker.
NEW on the Economics Observatory– UK productivity: why is the frontier economy invisible to policy-makers?
by @paulswinney.bsky.social
buff.ly/vXY9tn0
by @paulswinney.bsky.social
buff.ly/vXY9tn0
UK productivity: why is the frontier economy invisible to policy-makers? - Economics Observatory
The most productive, fastest-growing and most heavily invested part of the UK economy is invisible in the data that policy-makers use for decisions. A new classification of frontier firms reveals the…
buff.ly
September 30, 2026 at 8:28 AM
‘Reindustrialisation’
Another ill-defined phrase to follow ‘rebalance’, ‘turbocharge’ & ‘level up’ the economy.
We do this because the most important part of the economy is invisible in the statistics.
This should worry every economist and policymaker.
Another ill-defined phrase to follow ‘rebalance’, ‘turbocharge’ & ‘level up’ the economy.
We do this because the most important part of the economy is invisible in the statistics.
This should worry every economist and policymaker.
Reposted by Paul Swinney
Good piece. It should be obvious that technological progress is very uneven, and that productivity growth is disproportionately driven by a relatively small number of firms operating in sectors where fast technological progress is taking place, but this is not widely enough appreciated.
September 28, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Good piece. It should be obvious that technological progress is very uneven, and that productivity growth is disproportionately driven by a relatively small number of firms operating in sectors where fast technological progress is taking place, but this is not widely enough appreciated.
We don't measure the most important part of the economy in official statistics.
Every economist and policymaker should be concerned about this:
Every economist and policymaker should be concerned about this:
JUST PUBLISHED – UK productivity: why is the frontier economy invisible to policy-makers?
by @paulswinney.bsky.social
buff.ly/vXY9tn0
by @paulswinney.bsky.social
buff.ly/vXY9tn0
UK productivity: why is the frontier economy invisible to policy-makers? - Economics Observatory
The most productive, fastest-growing and most heavily invested part of the UK economy is invisible in the data that policy-makers use for decisions. A new classification of frontier firms reveals the…
buff.ly
September 28, 2026 at 10:23 AM
We don't measure the most important part of the economy in official statistics.
Every economist and policymaker should be concerned about this:
Every economist and policymaker should be concerned about this:
The main pushback seems to this is that it removes local accountability. I think it strengthens it. Here's why:
England Mayors to get powers to overrule local councils on planning decisions.
Local democracy?
New homes not accompanied by investment in water/energy infrastructure, NHS, public transport, roads, schools, environment.
No playing spaces for children in high-rise builds.
Local democracy?
New homes not accompanied by investment in water/energy infrastructure, NHS, public transport, roads, schools, environment.
No playing spaces for children in high-rise builds.
Mayors to get powers to overrule local councils on planning decisions
Housing minister Matthew Pennycook said the change was "essential" for helping mayors "effectively deliver new homes".
www.bbc.co.uk
August 24, 2026 at 12:54 PM
The main pushback seems to this is that it removes local accountability. I think it strengthens it. Here's why:
Good luck to Andy Burnham.
May he succeed where all of his recent predecessors have failed.
May he succeed where all of his recent predecessors have failed.
July 17, 2026 at 8:48 AM
Good luck to Andy Burnham.
May he succeed where all of his recent predecessors have failed.
May he succeed where all of his recent predecessors have failed.
England have scored 13 goals at this year's world cup.
12 have come from Bellingham or Kane.
That's a lot like the UK's public finances. What state would they be in without London? See more here:
12 have come from Bellingham or Kane.
That's a lot like the UK's public finances. What state would they be in without London? See more here:
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy?
by Paul Swinney
by Paul Swinney
Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? - Economics Observatory
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big…
buff.ly
July 14, 2026 at 10:36 AM
England have scored 13 goals at this year's world cup.
12 have come from Bellingham or Kane.
That's a lot like the UK's public finances. What state would they be in without London? See more here:
12 have come from Bellingham or Kane.
That's a lot like the UK's public finances. What state would they be in without London? See more here:
Reposted by Paul Swinney
Interesting piece by @paulswinney.bsky.social @thedatacity.bsky.social.
Hear more from Paul in this special session on navigating industry and regional classifications at ESCoE's recent conference: youtu.be/DW-GPnX_gTY
Hear more from Paul in this special session on navigating industry and regional classifications at ESCoE's recent conference: youtu.be/DW-GPnX_gTY
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy?
by Paul Swinney
by Paul Swinney
Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? - Economics Observatory
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big…
buff.ly
July 14, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Interesting piece by @paulswinney.bsky.social @thedatacity.bsky.social.
Hear more from Paul in this special session on navigating industry and regional classifications at ESCoE's recent conference: youtu.be/DW-GPnX_gTY
Hear more from Paul in this special session on navigating industry and regional classifications at ESCoE's recent conference: youtu.be/DW-GPnX_gTY
On your second point, I'd contend that quite a few countries have.
As a group our secondary cities are the poorest performers of anywhere in the G7. And Japan is the only other country where the rest of the country outperforms them for productivity.
As a group our secondary cities are the poorest performers of anywhere in the G7. And Japan is the only other country where the rest of the country outperforms them for productivity.
July 13, 2026 at 10:29 AM
On your second point, I'd contend that quite a few countries have.
As a group our secondary cities are the poorest performers of anywhere in the G7. And Japan is the only other country where the rest of the country outperforms them for productivity.
As a group our secondary cities are the poorest performers of anywhere in the G7. And Japan is the only other country where the rest of the country outperforms them for productivity.
Many parts of the UK run a fiscal deficit larger than Greece’s at the height of its 2009 sovereign debt crisis.
Let that sink in for a second.
Let that sink in for a second.
JUST PUBLISHED – Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy?
by Paul Swinney
by Paul Swinney
Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy? - Economics Observatory
Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big…
buff.ly
July 13, 2026 at 10:15 AM
Many parts of the UK run a fiscal deficit larger than Greece’s at the height of its 2009 sovereign debt crisis.
Let that sink in for a second.
Let that sink in for a second.
I'm on this week's More or Less with Tim Harford discussing the Manchester growth miracle.
You can listen to it here. Let me know what you think: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
You can listen to it here. Let me know what you think: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
BBC Radio 4 - More or Less, Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’
Tim Harford examines ‘Manchesterism’, hot cities, whales and CO2, and prime numbers.
www.bbc.co.uk
July 1, 2026 at 11:05 AM
I'm on this week's More or Less with Tim Harford discussing the Manchester growth miracle.
You can listen to it here. Let me know what you think: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
You can listen to it here. Let me know what you think: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
Reposted by Paul Swinney
💡Does the UK lose its best ideas to America? New data suggests the bigger challenge is much closer to home: scaling spinouts from outside Oxford and Cambridge.
Enjoyed digging into the data with the help of @paulswinney.bsky.social for @alphaville.ft.com
Full story here: as.ft.com/r/d60411f3-9...
Enjoyed digging into the data with the help of @paulswinney.bsky.social for @alphaville.ft.com
Full story here: as.ft.com/r/d60411f3-9...
June 30, 2026 at 5:15 PM
💡Does the UK lose its best ideas to America? New data suggests the bigger challenge is much closer to home: scaling spinouts from outside Oxford and Cambridge.
Enjoyed digging into the data with the help of @paulswinney.bsky.social for @alphaville.ft.com
Full story here: as.ft.com/r/d60411f3-9...
Enjoyed digging into the data with the help of @paulswinney.bsky.social for @alphaville.ft.com
Full story here: as.ft.com/r/d60411f3-9...
Dear political journos.
The creation of No10 North is decentralisation of the state, not devolution.
The first is the state doing its functions somewhere else in the country.
The second is the reallocation of powers away from the centre.
They are very definitely different things.
Thanks x
The creation of No10 North is decentralisation of the state, not devolution.
The first is the state doing its functions somewhere else in the country.
The second is the reallocation of powers away from the centre.
They are very definitely different things.
Thanks x
June 29, 2026 at 3:42 PM
Dear political journos.
The creation of No10 North is decentralisation of the state, not devolution.
The first is the state doing its functions somewhere else in the country.
The second is the reallocation of powers away from the centre.
They are very definitely different things.
Thanks x
The creation of No10 North is decentralisation of the state, not devolution.
The first is the state doing its functions somewhere else in the country.
The second is the reallocation of powers away from the centre.
They are very definitely different things.
Thanks x
Reposted by Paul Swinney
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using…
buff.ly
January 15, 2026 at 5:32 PM
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
Reposted by Paul Swinney
Producing local economic insights in the UK faces a fundamental challenge: reconciling official statistical frameworks with the granular realities of business activity.
This special session looks at industry and regional classifications.
@asvalero.bsky.social @paulswinney.bsky.social
This special session looks at industry and regional classifications.
@asvalero.bsky.social @paulswinney.bsky.social
May 20, 2026 at 12:21 PM
Producing local economic insights in the UK faces a fundamental challenge: reconciling official statistical frameworks with the granular realities of business activity.
This special session looks at industry and regional classifications.
@asvalero.bsky.social @paulswinney.bsky.social
This special session looks at industry and regional classifications.
@asvalero.bsky.social @paulswinney.bsky.social
This is the geography of VC-backed businesses in the UK, from @thedatacity.bsky.social.
Every dot is the operations of an existing business that has received VC at some point.
Every dot is the operations of an existing business that has received VC at some point.
May 19, 2026 at 11:05 AM
This is the geography of VC-backed businesses in the UK, from @thedatacity.bsky.social.
Every dot is the operations of an existing business that has received VC at some point.
Every dot is the operations of an existing business that has received VC at some point.
Reposted by Paul Swinney
Interesting from @paulswinney.bsky.social. Why trains aren't always the answer.
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? - Economics Observatory
More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it…
buff.ly
April 28, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Interesting from @paulswinney.bsky.social. Why trains aren't always the answer.
Reposted by Paul Swinney
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? - Economics Observatory
More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it…
buff.ly
April 21, 2026 at 4:32 PM
NEW on the Economics Observatory – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
Reposted by Paul Swinney
JUST PUBLISHED – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? - Economics Observatory
More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it…
buff.ly
April 21, 2026 at 10:23 AM
JUST PUBLISHED – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
The answer is trains. What’s the question?
That’s what so many conversations about the solutions to the North’s economic challenges feel like.
That starting point doesn’t help the very people we want to make more prosperous. Here’s why:
www.economicsobservatory.com/are-more-tra...
That’s what so many conversations about the solutions to the North’s economic challenges feel like.
That starting point doesn’t help the very people we want to make more prosperous. Here’s why:
www.economicsobservatory.com/are-more-tra...
www.economicsobservatory.com
April 21, 2026 at 7:41 AM
The answer is trains. What’s the question?
That’s what so many conversations about the solutions to the North’s economic challenges feel like.
That starting point doesn’t help the very people we want to make more prosperous. Here’s why:
www.economicsobservatory.com/are-more-tra...
That’s what so many conversations about the solutions to the North’s economic challenges feel like.
That starting point doesn’t help the very people we want to make more prosperous. Here’s why:
www.economicsobservatory.com/are-more-tra...
Reposted by Paul Swinney
Another proof point!
Super interesting critique of the Manchester growth story from @paulswinney.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
Super interesting critique of the Manchester growth story from @paulswinney.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle? - Economics Observatory
While official data points to a 'productivity miracle' in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it,...
www.economicsobservatory.com
March 26, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Another proof point!
Super interesting critique of the Manchester growth story from @paulswinney.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
Super interesting critique of the Manchester growth story from @paulswinney.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/have-the-uks...
🧵 The 2025 UK investment league table is out. Some sectors will be celebrating. Some ministers will not. A thread 👇
March 25, 2026 at 11:14 AM
🧵 The 2025 UK investment league table is out. Some sectors will be celebrating. Some ministers will not. A thread 👇
The #GortonandDenton results show the political challenge that the Manchester growth miracle narrative creates.
People are told that Greater Manchester is booming. They don't feel it in their pocket, and feel like it is passing them by. They vote for change.
People are told that Greater Manchester is booming. They don't feel it in their pocket, and feel like it is passing them by. They vote for change.
I've seen a number of organisations and politicians use the data seemingly showing a productivity miracle in large northern city regions, especially Greater Manchester.
Something didn't seem quite right. So I take a look in this piece:
Something didn't seem quite right. So I take a look in this piece:
JUST PUBLISHED – Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
By @paulswinney.bsky.social
February 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM
The #GortonandDenton results show the political challenge that the Manchester growth miracle narrative creates.
People are told that Greater Manchester is booming. They don't feel it in their pocket, and feel like it is passing them by. They vote for change.
People are told that Greater Manchester is booming. They don't feel it in their pocket, and feel like it is passing them by. They vote for change.
Join Mayor Andy Burnham for a keynote speech and discussion on the future of English devolution.
We will host the @mayorofgm.bsky.social to reflect on Greater Manchester’s journey so far and set out his ambitions for the next phase of devolution👇
buff.ly/uQXZSyc
We will host the @mayorofgm.bsky.social to reflect on Greater Manchester’s journey so far and set out his ambitions for the next phase of devolution👇
buff.ly/uQXZSyc
February 27, 2026 at 7:05 AM