William Bowe
@pollbludger.bsky.social
Publisher of the Australian elections and polling website pollbludger.net
Introducing the Poll Bludger's Victorian election guide and seats projection model. Current reading: L-NP 45, ALP 25, ON 15, GRN 3. pollbludger.net/2026/09/29/v...
September 30, 2026 at 6:11 AM
Introducing the Poll Bludger's Victorian election guide and seats projection model. Current reading: L-NP 45, ALP 25, ON 15, GRN 3. pollbludger.net/2026/09/29/v...
All over now in Secret Harbour -- 13,000+ votes added from Secret Harbour Early Polling Place (around half the total count) are even stronger for One Nation that those counted earlier. www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
Secret Harbour by-election live - The Poll Bludger
Live results and commentary from Western Australia's Secret Harbour state by-election.
www.pollbludger.net
August 29, 2026 at 2:23 PM
All over now in Secret Harbour -- 13,000+ votes added from Secret Harbour Early Polling Place (around half the total count) are even stronger for One Nation that those counted earlier. www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
Reposted by William Bowe
I had access to old Labor party scrutineer stuff when I was doing things in Qld, and historically, it wasn't irregular that in seats where One Nation got the highest first preference, they also got the highest last preference. That carried across through time, and seems kind of apt elsewhere now.
August 29, 2026 at 12:18 PM
I had access to old Labor party scrutineer stuff when I was doing things in Qld, and historically, it wasn't irregular that in seats where One Nation got the highest first preference, they also got the highest last preference. That carried across through time, and seems kind of apt elsewhere now.
After Farrer, this is the second by-election where I've been surprised by One Nation's weak preference flow: grist for the theory that the remaining Lib voters are moderates. Also (very likely) the second by-election where it ultimately didn't matter.
I was chuckling the other day about how long until the weird One Nation for and against would start breaking models. Thought we'd have to wait for the Vic election - but here we are already eh? 🤣
August 29, 2026 at 12:14 PM
After Farrer, this is the second by-election where I've been surprised by One Nation's weak preference flow: grist for the theory that the remaining Lib voters are moderates. Also (very likely) the second by-election where it ultimately didn't matter.
A bit of a wrinkle here: the first TCP results show preferences flowing surprisingly heavily to Labor. My system is still calling it for One Nation, but I'm no longer sure that it should be.
Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
August 29, 2026 at 11:58 AM
A bit of a wrinkle here: the first TCP results show preferences flowing surprisingly heavily to Labor. My system is still calling it for One Nation, but I'm no longer sure that it should be.
Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
August 29, 2026 at 11:41 AM
Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
First result from Secret Harbour is a batch of 1277 postals. It's more than consistent with a One Nation win, though Labor can hope on the tendency of early batches of postals to lean conservative. Full coverage: www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
Secret Harbour by-election live - The Poll Bludger
Live results and commentary from Western Australia's Secret Harbour state by-election.
www.pollbludger.net
August 29, 2026 at 11:21 AM
First result from Secret Harbour is a batch of 1277 postals. It's more than consistent with a One Nation win, though Labor can hope on the tendency of early batches of postals to lean conservative. Full coverage: www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
Labor look like they've scraped home in the Stafford by-election, but my system isn't quite calling it yet. They lead by 768 at the end of the night, which I expect late-arriving postals will cut by about half. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...
May 16, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Labor look like they've scraped home in the Stafford by-election, but my system isn't quite calling it yet. They lead by 768 at the end of the night, which I expect late-arriving postals will cut by about half. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...
After a bad result for Labor in the Chermside South booth (with 9.1% now counted, still nothing on TCP): pollbludger.net/qld2026by1/R...
May 16, 2026 at 9:08 AM
After a bad result for Labor in the Chermside South booth (with 9.1% now counted, still nothing on TCP): pollbludger.net/qld2026by1/R...
Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...
May 16, 2026 at 9:05 AM
Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...
My results system is calling Nepean a LIB RETAIN. Quite a few of the best areas for One Nation are still outstanding, but even so, they're running well behind the second-placed independent. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/02/n...
May 2, 2026 at 10:11 AM
My results system is calling Nepean a LIB RETAIN. Quite a few of the best areas for One Nation are still outstanding, but even so, they're running well behind the second-placed independent. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/02/n...
Reposted by William Bowe
As predicted, the Liberals capitulated in the South Australian election. But as election analyst @pollbludger.bsky.social writes, One Nation's strong showing offers a warning to Labor as well. www.crikey.com.au/2026/03/23/s...
One Nation's strength in SA leaves Liberals floundering. It should spook Labor, too
Rival Liberal factions are already offering wildly contradictory prognoses as to what went on in South Australia. But the strength of Pauline Hanson's party in working-class suburbs also offers a…
www.crikey.com.au
March 22, 2026 at 11:30 PM
As predicted, the Liberals capitulated in the South Australian election. But as election analyst @pollbludger.bsky.social writes, One Nation's strong showing offers a warning to Labor as well. www.crikey.com.au/2026/03/23/s...
The Liberals have made a late rally in Morphett after doing quite a lot better at the electorate's early voting centre than they did on election day. Now lineball. pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...
The Poll Bludger: South Australian Election 2026
Live election results and projections for the 2026 South Australian state election
pollbludger.net
March 22, 2026 at 7:17 AM
The Liberals have made a late rally in Morphett after doing quite a lot better at the electorate's early voting centre than they did on election day. Now lineball. pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...
Not I know it seems to be working, a plug for the Poll Bludger's South Australian election live results system: www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...
The Poll Bludger: South Australian Election 2026
Live election results and projections for the 2026 Australian South Australian election
www.pollbludger.net
March 21, 2026 at 8:34 AM
Not I know it seems to be working, a plug for the Poll Bludger's South Australian election live results system: www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...
Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.
Looking at the maps before reading this, I'd have thought Mt Ommaney might have got a lot worse for Labor, losing Darra to Inala and gaining the tree lined streets of the Chelmer peninsula from Miller. Perhaps a few green-tinged votes in that area balance it out?
March 10, 2026 at 8:54 AM
Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.
Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat
Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger
A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.
www.pollbludger.net
March 10, 2026 at 7:07 AM
Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat
Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger
A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.
www.pollbludger.net
March 10, 2026 at 6:06 AM
Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
Queensland state redistribution proposal www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger
A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.
www.pollbludger.net
March 10, 2026 at 5:01 AM
Queensland state redistribution proposal www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
Hinchinbrook by-election live - The Poll Bludger
Live results and commentary from the Queensland state by-election for Hinchinbrook.
www.pollbludger.net
November 29, 2025 at 10:52 AM
After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
November 29, 2025 at 9:43 AM
The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
November 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.
November 29, 2025 at 9:00 AM
The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor (open thread) - The Poll Bludger
Labor's two-party lead back out to its equal widest since the election, though Sussan Ley remains favoured to lead the Liberal Party.
www.pollbludger.net
November 23, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
September 13, 2025 at 9:41 AM
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
September 13, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...