Robert Rohde
@rarohde.bsky.social
Chief Scientist for @berkeleyearth.org.
Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
Pinned
Let's talk about the weather and climate changes that preceded the Nepali glacier collapse and landslide.
It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose.
A thread. 🧵🧪
It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose.
A thread. 🧵🧪
This site is practically boring.
I posted a whole thread related to climate and have yet to be called a retard, moron, clown, grifter, or "slimy MF".
I posted a whole thread related to climate and have yet to be called a retard, moron, clown, grifter, or "slimy MF".
September 4, 2026 at 5:32 PM
This site is practically boring.
I posted a whole thread related to climate and have yet to be called a retard, moron, clown, grifter, or "slimy MF".
I posted a whole thread related to climate and have yet to be called a retard, moron, clown, grifter, or "slimy MF".
Let's talk about the weather and climate changes that preceded the Nepali glacier collapse and landslide.
It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose.
A thread. 🧵🧪
It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose.
A thread. 🧵🧪
September 4, 2026 at 9:01 AM
Let's talk about the weather and climate changes that preceded the Nepali glacier collapse and landslide.
It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose.
A thread. 🧵🧪
It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose.
A thread. 🧵🧪
Landsat 9 captured very clear images of the Himalayan glacier that collapsed, triggering the catastrophic flash floods in Nepal.
Estimating very roughly from these images, it appears that the area that failed may have spanned ~1 km² of ice and rock.
Estimating very roughly from these images, it appears that the area that failed may have spanned ~1 km² of ice and rock.
August 27, 2026 at 6:21 PM
Landsat 9 captured very clear images of the Himalayan glacier that collapsed, triggering the catastrophic flash floods in Nepal.
Estimating very roughly from these images, it appears that the area that failed may have spanned ~1 km² of ice and rock.
Estimating very roughly from these images, it appears that the area that failed may have spanned ~1 km² of ice and rock.
With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record.
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
August 14, 2026 at 10:59 AM
With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record.
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
July 2026 set a new record for the warmest national-average monthly temperature in the Contiguous USA in both the Berkeley Earth and NOAA time series.
Ongoing global warming is now starting to carry the USA beyond some of the extraordinary records set during the 1930s Dust Bowl.
Ongoing global warming is now starting to carry the USA beyond some of the extraordinary records set during the 1930s Dust Bowl.
August 13, 2026 at 4:26 PM
July 2026 set a new record for the warmest national-average monthly temperature in the Contiguous USA in both the Berkeley Earth and NOAA time series.
Ongoing global warming is now starting to carry the USA beyond some of the extraordinary records set during the 1930s Dust Bowl.
Ongoing global warming is now starting to carry the USA beyond some of the extraordinary records set during the 1930s Dust Bowl.
Reposted by Robert Rohde
We will be having our Berkeley Earth monthly press briefing tomorrow at 8 AM Pacific, covering July global temperatures, the rapidly developing El Nino event, and what to expect for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027.
Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
August 12, 2026 at 6:03 PM
We will be having our Berkeley Earth monthly press briefing tomorrow at 8 AM Pacific, covering July global temperatures, the rapidly developing El Nino event, and what to expect for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027.
Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
Global warming is one thing, but the Earth is now poised to add in the strongest El Niño event since human measurements began.
The next 12 months could be a real stress test: record heat, extreme weather, crop losses, and cascading impacts.
In part, a preview of our future.
The next 12 months could be a real stress test: record heat, extreme weather, crop losses, and cascading impacts.
In part, a preview of our future.
With all August model runs now in (except for SINTEX-F), we now expect this year's El Niño event to peak sometime between October and December at a stunning 4C in the Niño3.4 region.
To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
August 12, 2026 at 1:26 PM
Global warming is one thing, but the Earth is now poised to add in the strongest El Niño event since human measurements began.
The next 12 months could be a real stress test: record heat, extreme weather, crop losses, and cascading impacts.
In part, a preview of our future.
The next 12 months could be a real stress test: record heat, extreme weather, crop losses, and cascading impacts.
In part, a preview of our future.
Reposted by Robert Rohde
Less than HALF the amount of the previous record for driest July. Less than 10% of the average. Records are not merely falling, they are being obliterated. Just like our nature and farms.
nation.cymru/news/wales-r...
nation.cymru/news/wales-r...
Wales records driest July since records began
Nation.Cymru staff/agencies Wales has experienced its driest July since records began nearly two centuries ago, following a month of exceptionally low rainfall, record sunshine and high temperatures. ...
nation.cymru
August 3, 2026 at 6:24 PM
Less than HALF the amount of the previous record for driest July. Less than 10% of the average. Records are not merely falling, they are being obliterated. Just like our nature and farms.
nation.cymru/news/wales-r...
nation.cymru/news/wales-r...
Reposted by Robert Rohde
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
August 2, 2026 at 7:27 PM
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
First comes heat, then comes fire.
it's a sad reality that persistent heatwaves often create the conditions for serious wildfires, as is happening now in Spain and southern France.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
it's a sad reality that persistent heatwaves often create the conditions for serious wildfires, as is happening now in Spain and southern France.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Thousands flee wildfires in France and Spain as temperatures reach extreme levels in southern Europe
France asks EU for help while Spain declares national emergency around Madrid, as marine heatwave sees parts of Mediterranean Sea 5C hotter than normal
www.theguardian.com
July 24, 2026 at 9:44 AM
First comes heat, then comes fire.
it's a sad reality that persistent heatwaves often create the conditions for serious wildfires, as is happening now in Spain and southern France.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
it's a sad reality that persistent heatwaves often create the conditions for serious wildfires, as is happening now in Spain and southern France.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes?
That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream).
It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.
That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream).
It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.
July 24, 2026 at 5:57 AM
See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes?
That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream).
It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.
That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream).
It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.
When winds coming over a mountain range are forced to descend rapidly, the moisture loss and pressure change causes rapid heating.
Such hot, dry Foehn winds occur occasionally next to mountains all over the world, but this is the most extreme example I've ever seen.
Such hot, dry Foehn winds occur occasionally next to mountains all over the world, but this is the most extreme example I've ever seen.
I've never seen anything like it.
Salta, Argentina, has just recorded its hottest night on record during the climatologically coldest time of the year. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C (78.8°F), pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.
Salta, Argentina, has just recorded its hottest night on record during the climatologically coldest time of the year. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C (78.8°F), pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.
July 21, 2026 at 10:56 AM
When winds coming over a mountain range are forced to descend rapidly, the moisture loss and pressure change causes rapid heating.
Such hot, dry Foehn winds occur occasionally next to mountains all over the world, but this is the most extreme example I've ever seen.
Such hot, dry Foehn winds occur occasionally next to mountains all over the world, but this is the most extreme example I've ever seen.
The seasonal forecast models continue to point towards an end of the year El Niño peak that would be the strongest ever recorded.
Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.
Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.
July 20, 2026 at 12:15 PM
The seasonal forecast models continue to point towards an end of the year El Niño peak that would be the strongest ever recorded.
Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.
Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.
Temperatures during fire season in Canada (May-Sept) have risen a bit more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the last 50 years.
Climate warming doesn't start fires, but persistent hot and dry conditions can increase flammable fuel load, making any fires that do occur more severe.
1/
Climate warming doesn't start fires, but persistent hot and dry conditions can increase flammable fuel load, making any fires that do occur more severe.
1/
July 20, 2026 at 9:23 AM
Temperatures during fire season in Canada (May-Sept) have risen a bit more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the last 50 years.
Climate warming doesn't start fires, but persistent hot and dry conditions can increase flammable fuel load, making any fires that do occur more severe.
1/
Climate warming doesn't start fires, but persistent hot and dry conditions can increase flammable fuel load, making any fires that do occur more severe.
1/
Exciting launch news from Berkeley Earth
We are excited to announce our new climate data platform: Synthesis by Berkeley Earth
synthesis.berkeleyearth.org
It connects historical data (e.g. weather stations, city and regional averages) with bias-corrected climate model projections of the future.
Introduction 🧵
synthesis.berkeleyearth.org
It connects historical data (e.g. weather stations, city and regional averages) with bias-corrected climate model projections of the future.
Introduction 🧵
July 8, 2026 at 6:37 PM
Exciting launch news from Berkeley Earth
Happy 250th birthday to the United States of America.
A dream of freedom given form. An unfinished project carried forward by generations who crossed oceans and endured hardships to build better lives for themselves and their descendants in this beautiful land.
A dream of freedom given form. An unfinished project carried forward by generations who crossed oceans and endured hardships to build better lives for themselves and their descendants in this beautiful land.
July 4, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Happy 250th birthday to the United States of America.
A dream of freedom given form. An unfinished project carried forward by generations who crossed oceans and endured hardships to build better lives for themselves and their descendants in this beautiful land.
A dream of freedom given form. An unfinished project carried forward by generations who crossed oceans and endured hardships to build better lives for themselves and their descendants in this beautiful land.
Back in April, we had the rare sight of dueling tropical cyclones less than 10° N and S of the equator in the Western Pacific warm pool.
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...
Has anyone tried to model the effect of this on El Niño? Is it just a coincidence or did it kickstart this event?
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...
Has anyone tried to model the effect of this on El Niño? Is it just a coincidence or did it kickstart this event?
July 1, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Back in April, we had the rare sight of dueling tropical cyclones less than 10° N and S of the equator in the Western Pacific warm pool.
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...
Has anyone tried to model the effect of this on El Niño? Is it just a coincidence or did it kickstart this event?
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...
Has anyone tried to model the effect of this on El Niño? Is it just a coincidence or did it kickstart this event?
Reposted by Robert Rohde
Heat waves are driven by weather patterns but occur on the backdrop of a rapidly warming world. Without climate change the current European heat wave would have been ~3.2 °C (5.8 °F) cooler.
Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering
Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering
June 26, 2026 at 3:57 PM
Heat waves are driven by weather patterns but occur on the backdrop of a rapidly warming world. Without climate change the current European heat wave would have been ~3.2 °C (5.8 °F) cooler.
Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering
Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering
Heatwaves are far more disruptive and dangerous in places not used to high temperatures.
In Paris, where high heat and air conditioning are both rare, health risks increase sharply during heatwaves. By contrast, Texas has less impact from heat.
From: ourworldindata.org/part-one-how...
In Paris, where high heat and air conditioning are both rare, health risks increase sharply during heatwaves. By contrast, Texas has less impact from heat.
From: ourworldindata.org/part-one-how...
June 26, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Heatwaves are far more disruptive and dangerous in places not used to high temperatures.
In Paris, where high heat and air conditioning are both rare, health risks increase sharply during heatwaves. By contrast, Texas has less impact from heat.
From: ourworldindata.org/part-one-how...
In Paris, where high heat and air conditioning are both rare, health risks increase sharply during heatwaves. By contrast, Texas has less impact from heat.
From: ourworldindata.org/part-one-how...
Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is a measure of how much demand a place is likely to have for the use of artificial cooling.
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
June 26, 2026 at 7:14 AM
Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is a measure of how much demand a place is likely to have for the use of artificial cooling.
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
Apologies for the late notice, but @berkeleyearth.org will be holding our monthly climate press briefing looking at May temperatures starting in about 30 minutes.
We'll also include some discussion of the current European heatwave.
Registration link: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
We'll also include some discussion of the current European heatwave.
Registration link: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Berkeley Earth Monthly Press Briefing. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Berkeley Earth invites you to our upcoming press briefing, where our Chief Scientist, Dr. Robert Rohde, joined by Dr. Zeke Hausfather, will present the latest global temperature findings and climate i...
us02web.zoom.us
June 25, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Apologies for the late notice, but @berkeleyearth.org will be holding our monthly climate press briefing looking at May temperatures starting in about 30 minutes.
We'll also include some discussion of the current European heatwave.
Registration link: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
We'll also include some discussion of the current European heatwave.
Registration link: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
The model spread for this year's El Niño forecasts remains insane.
11 of the 13 models expect a very strong (aka "super") El Niño. (rONI > 2 °C)
7 of 13 expect the strongest El Niño in modern history.
11 of the 13 models expect a very strong (aka "super") El Niño. (rONI > 2 °C)
7 of 13 expect the strongest El Niño in modern history.
June 24, 2026 at 11:08 PM
The model spread for this year's El Niño forecasts remains insane.
11 of the 13 models expect a very strong (aka "super") El Niño. (rONI > 2 °C)
7 of 13 expect the strongest El Niño in modern history.
11 of the 13 models expect a very strong (aka "super") El Niño. (rONI > 2 °C)
7 of 13 expect the strongest El Niño in modern history.
Reposted by Robert Rohde
The world has warmed by around 1.4C since 1850.
It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
June 12, 2026 at 10:47 PM
The world has warmed by around 1.4C since 1850.
It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
The heat will be brutal, and only ~27% of French homes have air conditioning.
People will die this week.
The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F).
For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.
The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F).
For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.
June 22, 2026 at 8:45 AM
The heat will be brutal, and only ~27% of French homes have air conditioning.