Kevin
@reginageorgebush.bsky.social
"How can you make jokes at a time like this?"
"It's my defense mechanism."
End corruption. Tax the rich. Rahway, NJ.
"It's my defense mechanism."
End corruption. Tax the rich. Rahway, NJ.
not by much, it's just Orlando and Kissimmee
October 30, 2026 at 11:08 PM
not by much, it's just Orlando and Kissimmee
Reposted by Kevin
McMorrow: "First of all, I have no idea what the hell Haley Stevens is doing. This is a moment where we have to recognize the stakes."
October 30, 2026 at 9:15 PM
McMorrow: "First of all, I have no idea what the hell Haley Stevens is doing. This is a moment where we have to recognize the stakes."
4.7 million ballots have been cast in Florida so far. total advantage in ballots cast as of right now: R+2.5
13.4 million Floridians are registered to vote. total, all registered Florida voters: R+11.8
13.4 million Floridians are registered to vote. total, all registered Florida voters: R+11.8
October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM
4.7 million ballots have been cast in Florida so far. total advantage in ballots cast as of right now: R+2.5
13.4 million Floridians are registered to vote. total, all registered Florida voters: R+11.8
13.4 million Floridians are registered to vote. total, all registered Florida voters: R+11.8
Florida Republicans had a decent day today—by the standards of this year. they slightly outran total registration. the weekend should be bluer, and probably heavier too.
October 30, 2026 at 11:03 PM
Florida Republicans had a decent day today—by the standards of this year. they slightly outran total registration. the weekend should be bluer, and probably heavier too.
Reposted by Kevin
This is pure sabotage. This is basically an attack ad on Abdul El-Sayed, blaming him for an ad his campaign did not produce, and tying the ad to AES by gratuitously mentioning that Hasan Piker is Cenk Uygur's nephew.
Appearing with her will be a mistake. She cannot be trusted.
Appearing with her will be a mistake. She cannot be trusted.
This is the most atrocious and disgusting thing I've seen from a "endorser" maybe ever? She spends literally 90% of the statement criticizing Abdul and implicitly calling him a bigot, which she explicitly did during the primary. Why does anyone take this seriously?
October 30, 2026 at 3:32 PM
This is pure sabotage. This is basically an attack ad on Abdul El-Sayed, blaming him for an ad his campaign did not produce, and tying the ad to AES by gratuitously mentioning that Hasan Piker is Cenk Uygur's nephew.
Appearing with her will be a mistake. She cannot be trusted.
Appearing with her will be a mistake. She cannot be trusted.
this was honestly prompted by seeing a short Mario with a Peach so short he towered over her anyway so yeah this is also part of the rule imo
at the very least the girl should be taller
October 30, 2026 at 10:57 PM
this was honestly prompted by seeing a short Mario with a Peach so short he towered over her anyway so yeah this is also part of the rule imo
if you're going to do a Mario and Peach couples costume he has to be short, stop taking roles from short kings
October 30, 2026 at 10:54 PM
if you're going to do a Mario and Peach couples costume he has to be short, stop taking roles from short kings
PLEADING USURY AGAINST A UNITED STATES SENATOR LET'S GO
October 30, 2026 at 10:51 PM
PLEADING USURY AGAINST A UNITED STATES SENATOR LET'S GO
Reposted by Kevin
SICKOS YES @reginageorgebush.bsky.social
Marshall sued for charging ‘callous and predatory’ 18% interest rate on medical debt in Kansas | via Dale Hogg #ksleg
Marshall sued for charging ‘callous and predatory’ 18% interest rate on medical debt in Kansas • Kansas Reflector
A class action usury lawsuit filed Thursday accuses U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall and his former Great Bend medical practice of routinely charging patients illegal interest rates on unpaid medical debt.
kansasreflector.com
October 30, 2026 at 10:32 PM
SICKOS YES @reginageorgebush.bsky.social
Kansas too, lot of low-propensity Latino Dems and indies in red rural Kansas showing up
October 30, 2026 at 8:57 PM
Kansas too, lot of low-propensity Latino Dems and indies in red rural Kansas showing up
plus in states where we do have party reg and propensity data, the low-propensity nonwhites who are showing up are very disproportionately Dem by registration, so I think it's reasonable to infer that will be the case in Texas just as it is in North Carolina and Florida
October 30, 2026 at 8:56 PM
plus in states where we do have party reg and propensity data, the low-propensity nonwhites who are showing up are very disproportionately Dem by registration, so I think it's reasonable to infer that will be the case in Texas just as it is in North Carolina and Florida
I want to see what weird crimes my fellow New Jerseyans get up to
October 30, 2026 at 8:55 PM
I want to see what weird crimes my fellow New Jerseyans get up to
which at first is like "what?" and then you remember that between Pensacola and the military bases, registered Democrats in the Panhandle are either Black people or white liberals who retired from Alabama and therefore fear nothing because they've already been white liberals in Alabama.
October 30, 2026 at 8:47 PM
which at first is like "what?" and then you remember that between Pensacola and the military bases, registered Democrats in the Panhandle are either Black people or white liberals who retired from Alabama and therefore fear nothing because they've already been white liberals in Alabama.
I can see the case more in primaries where voting behavior is much more elastic, in general elections it's different imo. my answer to that concern would be that the Panhandle still had normal primary turnout afaik (and actually ended up padding Nixon's margin rather than narrowing it.)
October 30, 2026 at 8:42 PM
I can see the case more in primaries where voting behavior is much more elastic, in general elections it's different imo. my answer to that concern would be that the Panhandle still had normal primary turnout afaik (and actually ended up padding Nixon's margin rather than narrowing it.)
also helps that any Texas or Florida election that is decided by the westernmost time zone is one that is extremely competitive anyway
October 30, 2026 at 8:40 PM
also helps that any Texas or Florida election that is decided by the westernmost time zone is one that is extremely competitive anyway
I believe both states hold their *statewide* totals until all polls close but allow counties in the earlier time zones to begin tabulation as soon as their own polls close, which is I think a happy medium.
October 30, 2026 at 8:38 PM
I believe both states hold their *statewide* totals until all polls close but allow counties in the earlier time zones to begin tabulation as soon as their own polls close, which is I think a happy medium.
yeah imo the only elections where live voter turnout can actually tell you the winner in advance are elections where anyone could tell you the winner in advance without having the live voter turnout available to them
October 30, 2026 at 8:37 PM
yeah imo the only elections where live voter turnout can actually tell you the winner in advance are elections where anyone could tell you the winner in advance without having the live voter turnout available to them
I mean, it didn't exactly standardize the voter file at all, states vary wildly in what info they associate with a voter beyond address and age—sometimes but not always phone numbers, sometimes but not always race, I'm sure there are other, weirder things in voter files I haven't spent time with
October 30, 2026 at 8:33 PM
I mean, it didn't exactly standardize the voter file at all, states vary wildly in what info they associate with a voter beyond address and age—sometimes but not always phone numbers, sometimes but not always race, I'm sure there are other, weirder things in voter files I haven't spent time with
(I want to say the mail electorate in both '25 congressional specials had fewer votes for the R nominee than actual registered Republicans, meaning it was a mathematical certainty that Rs defected because allocating every D and NPA voter to the D still wasn't enough to produce the actual D margin.)
October 30, 2026 at 8:30 PM
(I want to say the mail electorate in both '25 congressional specials had fewer votes for the R nominee than actual registered Republicans, meaning it was a mathematical certainty that Rs defected because allocating every D and NPA voter to the D still wasn't enough to produce the actual D margin.)
for ex: you were able to tell immediately in the 25/26 FL specials that a lot of reg'd Rs voted Dem, because the number of Rs who voted early and by mail was so close to (and in some cases lower than) the actual number of early/mail votes for each R nominee that there had to be widespread defection.
October 30, 2026 at 8:28 PM
for ex: you were able to tell immediately in the 25/26 FL specials that a lot of reg'd Rs voted Dem, because the number of Rs who voted early and by mail was so close to (and in some cases lower than) the actual number of early/mail votes for each R nominee that there had to be widespread defection.
the transparency available before the elections also means that Florida is usually done very quickly with everyone (again, not just the pros with the voter file) having a clear understanding of what happened and a rough idea of how each chunk of the electorate shifted by party reg+voting method.
October 30, 2026 at 8:25 PM
the transparency available before the elections also means that Florida is usually done very quickly with everyone (again, not just the pros with the voter file) having a clear understanding of what happened and a rough idea of how each chunk of the electorate shifted by party reg+voting method.
so, while campaigns know the actual identities of who has voted and we do not, Florida has less of a gap between what the pros know and what the public knows than any other state, because the public knows the general shape of the electorate (but not its actual votes) about as well as the pros.
October 30, 2026 at 8:23 PM
so, while campaigns know the actual identities of who has voted and we do not, Florida has less of a gap between what the pros know and what the public knows than any other state, because the public knows the general shape of the electorate (but not its actual votes) about as well as the pros.
I'm still gathering my thoughts, but to start: this data exists and campaigns have it in some form in most states, that's what the voter file is. Florida is unique in that they make live turnout data publicly available as well as privately available.
October 30, 2026 at 8:23 PM
I'm still gathering my thoughts, but to start: this data exists and campaigns have it in some form in most states, that's what the voter file is. Florida is unique in that they make live turnout data publicly available as well as privately available.
(*please* do not take this as me calling you an idiot and if I gave that impression rather than just the impression that my brain is sputtering to a halt I apologize)
October 30, 2026 at 8:18 PM
(*please* do not take this as me calling you an idiot and if I gave that impression rather than just the impression that my brain is sputtering to a halt I apologize)
I don't think you're an idiot, I think (no, I *know*) you're quite smart! I just literally have no idea how to respond to anything you're saying because so much of it is utterly baffling that my brain is short-circuiting
October 30, 2026 at 8:16 PM
I don't think you're an idiot, I think (no, I *know*) you're quite smart! I just literally have no idea how to respond to anything you're saying because so much of it is utterly baffling that my brain is short-circuiting