SAVNG — Insider Signals & Market Risk
@savng.com
Filtering SEC Form 4 the academic way (Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski): isolating opportunistic insider buys, ranked against our DCF value. Daily market-risk reads. Educational, not advice. savng.com
📊 20% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - higher than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
October 2, 2026 at 2:35 PM
📊 20% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - higher than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
Consumer Cyclical — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
October 2, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Consumer Cyclical — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
Communication Services — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
October 2, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Communication Services — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
Basic Materials — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
October 2, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Basic Materials — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
Food, drink & tobacco is 11% below its one-year high.
Over 20 years, insider buying in this sector returned +3.3% when it was being sold off — and -1.6% when it was not.
Same trade. Opposite result. It depends on the weather.
Over 20 years, insider buying in this sector returned +3.3% when it was being sold off — and -1.6% when it was not.
Same trade. Opposite result. It depends on the weather.
October 1, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Food, drink & tobacco is 11% below its one-year high.
Over 20 years, insider buying in this sector returned +3.3% when it was being sold off — and -1.6% when it was not.
Same trade. Opposite result. It depends on the weather.
Over 20 years, insider buying in this sector returned +3.3% when it was being sold off — and -1.6% when it was not.
Same trade. Opposite result. It depends on the weather.
📊 20% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - higher than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
October 1, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊 20% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - higher than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 30, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
New research: Net-nets: the ratio does not sort, and the strict rule is a lottery. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on ncav / price (net-nets) at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P … https://savng.com/research/netnets/
September 30, 2026 at 2:00 PM
New research: Net-nets: the ratio does not sort, and the strict rule is a lottery. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on ncav / price (net-nets) at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P … https://savng.com/research/netnets/
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 29, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
New research: Dividend yield: a modest, real edge — until it gets extreme. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on dividend yield at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by +4.3 … https://savng.com/research/income-yield/
September 29, 2026 at 2:00 PM
New research: Dividend yield: a modest, real edge — until it gets extreme. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on dividend yield at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by +4.3 … https://savng.com/research/income-yield/
$ALNT: a director bought $50K of their own stock on the open market.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
September 29, 2026 at 6:34 AM
$ALNT: a director bought $50K of their own stock on the open market.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
$ALP: an insider bought $44K of their own stock on the open market.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
September 29, 2026 at 5:34 AM
$ALP: an insider bought $44K of their own stock on the open market.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
Not a plan trade, not routine. Could still be wrong — but it is a decision someone made with their own money.
🔴 $ALSN — the CEO sold $611K on the open market on Aug 21 — a discretionary sale, not a scheduled 10b5-1 plan. Debt 2.1× equity. Selling isn't automatically bearish — but a big one, we watch. #stocks #investing
savng.com/insider-signals/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/insider-signals/?utm_source=bluesky
September 29, 2026 at 12:34 AM
🔴 $ALSN — the CEO sold $611K on the open market on Aug 21 — a discretionary sale, not a scheduled 10b5-1 plan. Debt 2.1× equity. Selling isn't automatically bearish — but a big one, we watch. #stocks #investing
savng.com/insider-signals/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/insider-signals/?utm_source=bluesky
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 28, 2026 at 3:34 PM
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
New research: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on price to book (all caps) at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by +10.4 pts on av… https://savng.com/research/value-pb/
September 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM
New research: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on price to book (all caps) at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by +10.4 pts on av… https://savng.com/research/value-pb/
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 27, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
New research: Cheap small caps on book value: the widest spread in our data. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on price to book, small caps (< $2b) at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beat… https://savng.com/research/value-pb-small/
September 27, 2026 at 2:00 PM
New research: Cheap small caps on book value: the widest spread in our data. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on price to book, small caps (< $2b) at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beat… https://savng.com/research/value-pb-small/
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 26, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
New research: Insider buying pays in sell-offs, not in calm markets. If you had bought the same stock the day after every any opportunistic buy became public, from 2006 to 2026, and held for three months, you would have beaten small caps by +3.7 pts… https://savng.com/research/insider-stress/
September 26, 2026 at 2:00 PM
New research: Insider buying pays in sell-offs, not in calm markets. If you had bought the same stock the day after every any opportunistic buy became public, from 2006 to 2026, and held for three months, you would have beaten small caps by +3.7 pts… https://savng.com/research/insider-stress/
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 25, 2026 at 2:35 PM
📊 8% chance of a 10%+ market drop in the next 3 months (normal: 14%) - lower than usual. How it's measured: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
New research: When an insider raises their stake by 30% or more during a sell-off. If you had bought the same stock the day after every stake increase of 30%+ became public, from 2006 to 2026, and held for three months, you would have beaten small ca… https://savng.com/research/insider-stake/
September 25, 2026 at 2:00 PM
New research: When an insider raises their stake by 30% or more during a sell-off. If you had bought the same stock the day after every stake increase of 30%+ became public, from 2006 to 2026, and held for three months, you would have beaten small ca… https://savng.com/research/insider-stake/
Consumer Cyclical — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
September 25, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Consumer Cyclical — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
Communication Services — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
September 25, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Communication Services — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
Basic Materials — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
September 25, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Basic Materials — the week in one page: 16 sourced headlines, our risk read, and the insider tape. Every claim linked; where sources don't explain a move, we say so.
📊 US market risk today — Right now: Elevated 46/100 · Long-term risk (structural, vs ~145yr CAPE): High 65/100. Most-stretched sector: Utilities. Full board, every sector & theme: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
September 24, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊 US market risk today — Right now: Elevated 46/100 · Long-term risk (structural, vs ~145yr CAPE): High 65/100. Most-stretched sector: Utilities. Full board, every sector & theme: #investing #stocks
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky
savng.com/market-risk/?utm_source=bluesky