Scott Luft
@scottluft.bsky.social
Data Manager, Communicator, Advocate for consumers, and nuclear power.
first look/estimates of ON monthly electricity for September.
IESO-controlled grid (ICG):
increased output from hydro and wind offset demand growth, but gas still jumps to allow for increase in net exports
Market rate essentially unchanged
...
1/4
IESO-controlled grid (ICG):
increased output from hydro and wind offset demand growth, but gas still jumps to allow for increase in net exports
Market rate essentially unchanged
...
1/4
October 1, 2026 at 3:44 PM
first look/estimates of ON monthly electricity for September.
IESO-controlled grid (ICG):
increased output from hydro and wind offset demand growth, but gas still jumps to allow for increase in net exports
Market rate essentially unchanged
...
1/4
IESO-controlled grid (ICG):
increased output from hydro and wind offset demand growth, but gas still jumps to allow for increase in net exports
Market rate essentially unchanged
...
1/4
Today the final reactor at Pickering NGS is pulled from service pending refurbishment.
Unit 6 deserves the honour as it is the champ of the site, having produced over 153 TWh, an equivalent of full Reference unit output for over 297,000 hours (~34 years).
cheers to chapter 1
Unit 6 deserves the honour as it is the champ of the site, having produced over 153 TWh, an equivalent of full Reference unit output for over 297,000 hours (~34 years).
cheers to chapter 1
September 30, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Today the final reactor at Pickering NGS is pulled from service pending refurbishment.
Unit 6 deserves the honour as it is the champ of the site, having produced over 153 TWh, an equivalent of full Reference unit output for over 297,000 hours (~34 years).
cheers to chapter 1
Unit 6 deserves the honour as it is the champ of the site, having produced over 153 TWh, an equivalent of full Reference unit output for over 297,000 hours (~34 years).
cheers to chapter 1
This morning Pickering NGS unit 8 was removed from service - pending a multi-year refurbishment.
EFPH ~272,000
Like unit 7 (removed yesterday), unit 8's highest output year was 2025 -both's last full year of service.
Only Bruce B's reactors performed more hours pre-refurb
EFPH ~272,000
Like unit 7 (removed yesterday), unit 8's highest output year was 2025 -both's last full year of service.
Only Bruce B's reactors performed more hours pre-refurb
September 29, 2026 at 2:34 PM
This morning Pickering NGS unit 8 was removed from service - pending a multi-year refurbishment.
EFPH ~272,000
Like unit 7 (removed yesterday), unit 8's highest output year was 2025 -both's last full year of service.
Only Bruce B's reactors performed more hours pre-refurb
EFPH ~272,000
Like unit 7 (removed yesterday), unit 8's highest output year was 2025 -both's last full year of service.
Only Bruce B's reactors performed more hours pre-refurb
Last week it was unit 5: today we say "so long - for now", to reactor #7 at the Pickering NGS.
I estimate the same 289,000 EFPH for both reactors - pre-refurb.
image is taken from the final report of Ontario Hydro - showing the devaluation of the units entering restructuring.
I estimate the same 289,000 EFPH for both reactors - pre-refurb.
image is taken from the final report of Ontario Hydro - showing the devaluation of the units entering restructuring.
September 28, 2026 at 5:29 PM
Last week it was unit 5: today we say "so long - for now", to reactor #7 at the Pickering NGS.
I estimate the same 289,000 EFPH for both reactors - pre-refurb.
image is taken from the final report of Ontario Hydro - showing the devaluation of the units entering restructuring.
I estimate the same 289,000 EFPH for both reactors - pre-refurb.
image is taken from the final report of Ontario Hydro - showing the devaluation of the units entering restructuring.
My weekly ON electricity reporting.
highest $/MWh since May, on highest wind+solar supply since May, and increased nuclear.
ON demand down 200 GWh; more than cancelled out by net exports up 300 GWh.
rare down week for gas - most of which ran for export (QC main intertie)
highest $/MWh since May, on highest wind+solar supply since May, and increased nuclear.
ON demand down 200 GWh; more than cancelled out by net exports up 300 GWh.
rare down week for gas - most of which ran for export (QC main intertie)
September 28, 2026 at 2:46 PM
My weekly ON electricity reporting.
highest $/MWh since May, on highest wind+solar supply since May, and increased nuclear.
ON demand down 200 GWh; more than cancelled out by net exports up 300 GWh.
rare down week for gas - most of which ran for export (QC main intertie)
highest $/MWh since May, on highest wind+solar supply since May, and increased nuclear.
ON demand down 200 GWh; more than cancelled out by net exports up 300 GWh.
rare down week for gas - most of which ran for export (QC main intertie)
Ontario released its 2025-26 Public Accounts.
I've tracked the claimed subsidies for electricity from past reports - and it's a record $6.9 billion.
Some will point to that as a significant share of the $13B deficit.
with sector asset Δ, I calculate a net sector subsidy <$1B
I've tracked the claimed subsidies for electricity from past reports - and it's a record $6.9 billion.
Some will point to that as a significant share of the $13B deficit.
with sector asset Δ, I calculate a net sector subsidy <$1B
September 24, 2026 at 10:43 PM
Ontario released its 2025-26 Public Accounts.
I've tracked the claimed subsidies for electricity from past reports - and it's a record $6.9 billion.
Some will point to that as a significant share of the $13B deficit.
with sector asset Δ, I calculate a net sector subsidy <$1B
I've tracked the claimed subsidies for electricity from past reports - and it's a record $6.9 billion.
Some will point to that as a significant share of the $13B deficit.
with sector asset Δ, I calculate a net sector subsidy <$1B
Good article from Fatima Syed on the pending closure (for refurbishment) of Pickering, but I don't think it gets the import/export story quite right.
firstly, there will generally be one less large 9800+ MW) reactor offline for refurbishment, so loss is ~1300 MW
1/4
firstly, there will generally be one less large 9800+ MW) reactor offline for refurbishment, so loss is ~1300 MW
1/4
September 18, 2026 at 1:04 PM
Good article from Fatima Syed on the pending closure (for refurbishment) of Pickering, but I don't think it gets the import/export story quite right.
firstly, there will generally be one less large 9800+ MW) reactor offline for refurbishment, so loss is ~1300 MW
1/4
firstly, there will generally be one less large 9800+ MW) reactor offline for refurbishment, so loss is ~1300 MW
1/4
NWT Premier: "With new generation opportunities close to the NWT's southern border currently being examined, we need to understand what that could mean for us and how we can benefit."
Possible we see Yukon on the western interconnection and NWT on Eastern.
www.saskatchewan.ca/...
Possible we see Yukon on the western interconnection and NWT on Eastern.
www.saskatchewan.ca/...
September 15, 2026 at 9:42 AM
NWT Premier: "With new generation opportunities close to the NWT's southern border currently being examined, we need to understand what that could mean for us and how we can benefit."
Possible we see Yukon on the western interconnection and NWT on Eastern.
www.saskatchewan.ca/...
Possible we see Yukon on the western interconnection and NWT on Eastern.
www.saskatchewan.ca/...
Reposted by Scott Luft
Do you ever think about how San Francisco basically went through an economic miracle, with multiple years of double-digit growth, and about the only thing they have to show for it is a world-famous housing crisis?
Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...
Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...
September 14, 2026 at 7:06 PM
Do you ever think about how San Francisco basically went through an economic miracle, with multiple years of double-digit growth, and about the only thing they have to show for it is a world-famous housing crisis?
Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...
Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...
The past week in ON electricity (my estimates):
big weeks for hydro and wind didn't stop the growth fueled by natural gas as OPG continued to depress nuclear output, demand remained high(ish), and exports surged.
big weeks for hydro and wind didn't stop the growth fueled by natural gas as OPG continued to depress nuclear output, demand remained high(ish), and exports surged.
September 14, 2026 at 3:18 PM
The past week in ON electricity (my estimates):
big weeks for hydro and wind didn't stop the growth fueled by natural gas as OPG continued to depress nuclear output, demand remained high(ish), and exports surged.
big weeks for hydro and wind didn't stop the growth fueled by natural gas as OPG continued to depress nuclear output, demand remained high(ish), and exports surged.
not having full visibility of the future can make some current events look a little silly.
such as... a steel mill, heavily subsidized to operate on an electric arc furnace, goes offline when the location's natural gas-fired generator breaks down.
such as... a steel mill, heavily subsidized to operate on an electric arc furnace, goes offline when the location's natural gas-fired generator breaks down.
Algoma Steel Resumes Production Under Interim Operating Arrangements
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), a Canadian producer of steel plate and hot rolled sheet, announced on Wednesday that it has resumed electric arc furnace production after working with the Independent Electricity System Operator to implement interim operating arrangements The company restarted output on August 29 while one turbine at its Lake Superior Power facility remains unavailable.
www.rttnews.com
September 10, 2026 at 5:47 PM
not having full visibility of the future can make some current events look a little silly.
such as... a steel mill, heavily subsidized to operate on an electric arc furnace, goes offline when the location's natural gas-fired generator breaks down.
such as... a steel mill, heavily subsidized to operate on an electric arc furnace, goes offline when the location's natural gas-fired generator breaks down.
Reposted by Scott Luft
Update:
The academic flight from Twitter is now complete and appears permanent.
April 2023, after the pandemic research surge, we recorded 2,234,307 posts sharing research on Twitter.
As of April this year, "X" had 896,741 posts about research.
That's a 60% drop in traffic.
The academic flight from Twitter is now complete and appears permanent.
April 2023, after the pandemic research surge, we recorded 2,234,307 posts sharing research on Twitter.
As of April this year, "X" had 896,741 posts about research.
That's a 60% drop in traffic.
September 8, 2026 at 7:36 AM
Update:
The academic flight from Twitter is now complete and appears permanent.
April 2023, after the pandemic research surge, we recorded 2,234,307 posts sharing research on Twitter.
As of April this year, "X" had 896,741 posts about research.
That's a 60% drop in traffic.
The academic flight from Twitter is now complete and appears permanent.
April 2023, after the pandemic research surge, we recorded 2,234,307 posts sharing research on Twitter.
As of April this year, "X" had 896,741 posts about research.
That's a 60% drop in traffic.
Reposted by Scott Luft
I have a sinking feeling
September 8, 2026 at 8:57 AM
I have a sinking feeling
Ontario electricity August 2026 -estimates:
Demand up ~1.8%, but over 1/3rd of that could be manufactured by increased use of storage - not actual consumption.
little change to Aug'25 in export and market rates.
trivial emission down (nuke, wind, solar, hydro)
gas up and...
1/2
Demand up ~1.8%, but over 1/3rd of that could be manufactured by increased use of storage - not actual consumption.
little change to Aug'25 in export and market rates.
trivial emission down (nuke, wind, solar, hydro)
gas up and...
1/2
September 1, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Ontario electricity August 2026 -estimates:
Demand up ~1.8%, but over 1/3rd of that could be manufactured by increased use of storage - not actual consumption.
little change to Aug'25 in export and market rates.
trivial emission down (nuke, wind, solar, hydro)
gas up and...
1/2
Demand up ~1.8%, but over 1/3rd of that could be manufactured by increased use of storage - not actual consumption.
little change to Aug'25 in export and market rates.
trivial emission down (nuke, wind, solar, hydro)
gas up and...
1/2
My August global adjustment estimates:
$730 million
$42/MWh (class B)
[assumes the IESO will again remove any benefit of market price exceeding marginal cost of gas supply to benefit whomever they wish instead of ratepayers - as last month]
$730 million
$42/MWh (class B)
[assumes the IESO will again remove any benefit of market price exceeding marginal cost of gas supply to benefit whomever they wish instead of ratepayers - as last month]
August 31, 2026 at 3:03 PM
My August global adjustment estimates:
$730 million
$42/MWh (class B)
[assumes the IESO will again remove any benefit of market price exceeding marginal cost of gas supply to benefit whomever they wish instead of ratepayers - as last month]
$730 million
$42/MWh (class B)
[assumes the IESO will again remove any benefit of market price exceeding marginal cost of gas supply to benefit whomever they wish instead of ratepayers - as last month]
IESO breakdown of global adjustment costs updated with July.
~$20M < my estimates
1. OPG +$30M
2. Bruce +$40M
3. Conservation +$11M
4. Non-Hydro Renewables Funding: +$11M
5. Other (incl. storage) +$10M
Gas -$136M (this approximates how much above fuel cost DAOZP recovered)
1/2
~$20M < my estimates
1. OPG +$30M
2. Bruce +$40M
3. Conservation +$11M
4. Non-Hydro Renewables Funding: +$11M
5. Other (incl. storage) +$10M
Gas -$136M (this approximates how much above fuel cost DAOZP recovered)
1/2
August 28, 2026 at 11:32 PM
IESO breakdown of global adjustment costs updated with July.
~$20M < my estimates
1. OPG +$30M
2. Bruce +$40M
3. Conservation +$11M
4. Non-Hydro Renewables Funding: +$11M
5. Other (incl. storage) +$10M
Gas -$136M (this approximates how much above fuel cost DAOZP recovered)
1/2
~$20M < my estimates
1. OPG +$30M
2. Bruce +$40M
3. Conservation +$11M
4. Non-Hydro Renewables Funding: +$11M
5. Other (incl. storage) +$10M
Gas -$136M (this approximates how much above fuel cost DAOZP recovered)
1/2
Good news for Ontario nuclear supporters: the CNSC has agree to a ~3% increase in Bruce Power's reactors.
This will likely increase capacity at the site by ~200 MW, about half the increase needed to get to the 7 GWe Bruce is working to achieve
This will likely increase capacity at the site by ~200 MW, about half the increase needed to get to the 7 GWe Bruce is working to achieve
August 24, 2026 at 6:08 PM
Good news for Ontario nuclear supporters: the CNSC has agree to a ~3% increase in Bruce Power's reactors.
This will likely increase capacity at the site by ~200 MW, about half the increase needed to get to the 7 GWe Bruce is working to achieve
This will likely increase capacity at the site by ~200 MW, about half the increase needed to get to the 7 GWe Bruce is working to achieve
The jig is up...
Buddy can't dance
Buddy can't dance
hmmmm
JD Vance: "The gig is up -- commit fraud against America and go to jail"
August 24, 2026 at 5:47 PM
The jig is up...
Buddy can't dance
Buddy can't dance
ON electricity weekly notes:
another week of declining trivial-emission generation (comp to ly), on higher demand and pricing.
another week of declining trivial-emission generation (comp to ly), on higher demand and pricing.
August 24, 2026 at 2:56 PM
ON electricity weekly notes:
another week of declining trivial-emission generation (comp to ly), on higher demand and pricing.
another week of declining trivial-emission generation (comp to ly), on higher demand and pricing.
Ontario Power Generation needs a reckoning
Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable
refurbed reactor teething pains, or far deeper problems?
-reliability concerns
-comms absent
-OEB rate-setting absurdity
-gov't financial shenanigans
1/2
Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable
refurbed reactor teething pains, or far deeper problems?
-reliability concerns
-comms absent
-OEB rate-setting absurdity
-gov't financial shenanigans
1/2
August 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Ontario Power Generation needs a reckoning
Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable
refurbed reactor teething pains, or far deeper problems?
-reliability concerns
-comms absent
-OEB rate-setting absurdity
-gov't financial shenanigans
1/2
Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable
refurbed reactor teething pains, or far deeper problems?
-reliability concerns
-comms absent
-OEB rate-setting absurdity
-gov't financial shenanigans
1/2
trends in ON electricity pricing.
Another graphic inspired by the increasingly -lengthy, perhaps unplanned, reactor outages at Darlington.
Ontario announcement of the refurbishment early in 2026 claimed post-refurbishment cost of $72-$81/MWh
(not based on 1 of 4 units operating)
Another graphic inspired by the increasingly -lengthy, perhaps unplanned, reactor outages at Darlington.
Ontario announcement of the refurbishment early in 2026 claimed post-refurbishment cost of $72-$81/MWh
(not based on 1 of 4 units operating)
August 18, 2026 at 12:26 PM
trends in ON electricity pricing.
Another graphic inspired by the increasingly -lengthy, perhaps unplanned, reactor outages at Darlington.
Ontario announcement of the refurbishment early in 2026 claimed post-refurbishment cost of $72-$81/MWh
(not based on 1 of 4 units operating)
Another graphic inspired by the increasingly -lengthy, perhaps unplanned, reactor outages at Darlington.
Ontario announcement of the refurbishment early in 2026 claimed post-refurbishment cost of $72-$81/MWh
(not based on 1 of 4 units operating)
Here's why I am triggered by the poor performance at Darlington NGS this year: publicly-owned nuclear power in Ontario has been in the situation where prices were rising as performance was deteriorating.
The combination is not sustainable - maybe not even for 1 election cycle
The combination is not sustainable - maybe not even for 1 election cycle
August 15, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Here's why I am triggered by the poor performance at Darlington NGS this year: publicly-owned nuclear power in Ontario has been in the situation where prices were rising as performance was deteriorating.
The combination is not sustainable - maybe not even for 1 election cycle
The combination is not sustainable - maybe not even for 1 election cycle
Since a March 12th refurb completion Darlington NGS has had all 4 units producing power for only 18 days. Unit 4, the final unit to return from the lengthy life-extension, has operated on only half of the days since its ahead-of-schedule and under-budget celebration.
August 14, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Since a March 12th refurb completion Darlington NGS has had all 4 units producing power for only 18 days. Unit 4, the final unit to return from the lengthy life-extension, has operated on only half of the days since its ahead-of-schedule and under-budget celebration.
OPG released their 2026 Q2 financial results today.
Capital expenditures on nuclear projects year-to-date approach $2.5 billion.
For that spending one might assume more than 1 of 4 refurbished reactors at Darlington to be operating this August.
Nope :(
Capital expenditures on nuclear projects year-to-date approach $2.5 billion.
For that spending one might assume more than 1 of 4 refurbished reactors at Darlington to be operating this August.
Nope :(
August 13, 2026 at 8:53 PM
OPG released their 2026 Q2 financial results today.
Capital expenditures on nuclear projects year-to-date approach $2.5 billion.
For that spending one might assume more than 1 of 4 refurbished reactors at Darlington to be operating this August.
Nope :(
Capital expenditures on nuclear projects year-to-date approach $2.5 billion.
For that spending one might assume more than 1 of 4 refurbished reactors at Darlington to be operating this August.
Nope :(
My ON electricity reporting/estimates for week 32:
natural gas fueled supply rises again, despite a down-demand week.
All trivial-emission types saw lower output, with the exception of biomass - nuclear led the way down (on OPG's unplanned outages).
app.powerbi.com/view...
natural gas fueled supply rises again, despite a down-demand week.
All trivial-emission types saw lower output, with the exception of biomass - nuclear led the way down (on OPG's unplanned outages).
app.powerbi.com/view...
August 10, 2026 at 3:06 PM
My ON electricity reporting/estimates for week 32:
natural gas fueled supply rises again, despite a down-demand week.
All trivial-emission types saw lower output, with the exception of biomass - nuclear led the way down (on OPG's unplanned outages).
app.powerbi.com/view...
natural gas fueled supply rises again, despite a down-demand week.
All trivial-emission types saw lower output, with the exception of biomass - nuclear led the way down (on OPG's unplanned outages).
app.powerbi.com/view...