Stats For Bios
@statsforbios.bsky.social
Statistics for biologists, medics, statisticians. Anyone really. By Tim Lucas, lecturer in epi/stats.
Pinned
Preprint shinyapp by @simonsmart.bsky.social here. User-friendly, reproducible software for high-resolution predictions from aggregate polygon case counts (or other data). Once you're done, click a button to get a Rmd file out. #RStats #DiseaseMapping #malaria
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Release of CmdStan 2.40, including new Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc, is now available!
Blog post with new features
blog.mc-stan.org/2026/09/16/r...
Highlights
- integrate_1d_double_exponential, a variadic version of old integrate_1d
- integrate_1d_gauss_kronrod, a different quadrature rule
...
Blog post with new features
blog.mc-stan.org/2026/09/16/r...
Highlights
- integrate_1d_double_exponential, a variadic version of old integrate_1d
- integrate_1d_gauss_kronrod, a different quadrature rule
...
Release of CmdStan 2.40
We are very happy to announce that the 2.40.0 release of CmdStan is now available on Github! As usual, the release of CmdStan is accompanied by new releases of Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc3. Thi…
blog.mc-stan.org
September 17, 2026 at 7:18 AM
Release of CmdStan 2.40, including new Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc, is now available!
Blog post with new features
blog.mc-stan.org/2026/09/16/r...
Highlights
- integrate_1d_double_exponential, a variadic version of old integrate_1d
- integrate_1d_gauss_kronrod, a different quadrature rule
...
Blog post with new features
blog.mc-stan.org/2026/09/16/r...
Highlights
- integrate_1d_double_exponential, a variadic version of old integrate_1d
- integrate_1d_gauss_kronrod, a different quadrature rule
...
Had a great week teaching Geospatial Models for Public Health at Tanzanian National Bureau of Statistics. Been supporting Janine Illian teaching inlabru and teaching disagapp for disaggregation regression.
inlabru-courses.github.io/Tanzania_202...
Now get the train back to Dar es Salaam
inlabru-courses.github.io/Tanzania_202...
Now get the train back to Dar es Salaam
September 17, 2026 at 7:21 AM
Had a great week teaching Geospatial Models for Public Health at Tanzanian National Bureau of Statistics. Been supporting Janine Illian teaching inlabru and teaching disagapp for disaggregation regression.
inlabru-courses.github.io/Tanzania_202...
Now get the train back to Dar es Salaam
inlabru-courses.github.io/Tanzania_202...
Now get the train back to Dar es Salaam
Reminder that "wiggly" is absolutely a technical statistical term. No discussion needed.
September 16, 2026 at 7:55 AM
Reminder that "wiggly" is absolutely a technical statistical term. No discussion needed.
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Preprint shinyapp by @simonsmart.bsky.social here. User-friendly, reproducible software for high-resolution predictions from aggregate polygon case counts (or other data). Once you're done, click a button to get a Rmd file out. #RStats #DiseaseMapping #malaria
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
September 11, 2026 at 8:12 AM
Preprint shinyapp by @simonsmart.bsky.social here. User-friendly, reproducible software for high-resolution predictions from aggregate polygon case counts (or other data). Once you're done, click a button to get a Rmd file out. #RStats #DiseaseMapping #malaria
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Reposted by Stats For Bios
This paper is 20 years old but keeps being as relevant today as back then :/
doi.org/10.1111/j.13... #statistics #ecopubs
doi.org/10.1111/j.13... #statistics #ecopubs
September 11, 2026 at 1:17 PM
This paper is 20 years old but keeps being as relevant today as back then :/
doi.org/10.1111/j.13... #statistics #ecopubs
doi.org/10.1111/j.13... #statistics #ecopubs
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Modeling non-response is an example I like to use when arguing that "descriptive" statistics also require causal inference. To describe the population, you have to model what causes the sample. Similar to occupancy modeling in ecology in many ways.
Bit of a wonky post, but here I share a lot about how I’m thinking about polls and polling error these day
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-15...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-15...
All polls are models now
Traditional polling is dead. A new paradigm of public opinion research has high uncertainty, and pollsters need to do a better job communicating about error.
www.gelliottmorris.com
September 10, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Modeling non-response is an example I like to use when arguing that "descriptive" statistics also require causal inference. To describe the population, you have to model what causes the sample. Similar to occupancy modeling in ecology in many ways.
Preprint shinyapp by @simonsmart.bsky.social here. User-friendly, reproducible software for high-resolution predictions from aggregate polygon case counts (or other data). Once you're done, click a button to get a Rmd file out. #RStats #DiseaseMapping #malaria
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
September 11, 2026 at 8:12 AM
Preprint shinyapp by @simonsmart.bsky.social here. User-friendly, reproducible software for high-resolution predictions from aggregate polygon case counts (or other data). Once you're done, click a button to get a Rmd file out. #RStats #DiseaseMapping #malaria
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
My bar for genAI has been for a while "I'll consider it useful when it can fill in a form for me".
Copilot, with a lot of prompting and nonsense, filled 90% of a form for me. That's it, I'm in.
Copilot, with a lot of prompting and nonsense, filled 90% of a form for me. That's it, I'm in.
September 10, 2026 at 9:32 AM
My bar for genAI has been for a while "I'll consider it useful when it can fill in a form for me".
Copilot, with a lot of prompting and nonsense, filled 90% of a form for me. That's it, I'm in.
Copilot, with a lot of prompting and nonsense, filled 90% of a form for me. That's it, I'm in.
The YouTube android app is just so much worse than the mobile webpage. And I can't delete it.
September 9, 2026 at 7:55 AM
The YouTube android app is just so much worse than the mobile webpage. And I can't delete it.
Reposted by Stats For Bios
I'm looking for doctoral students, postdocs and research fellows to work with on Bayesian Workflow. Flexible starting time
ELLIS Institute Finland PostDoc and doctoral student call is open (DL September 21, 2026). You can apply also to work with me on computational methods for Bayesian workflows
www.ellisinstitute.fi/postdoc-and-...
www.ellisinstitute.fi/postdoc-and-...
Postdoc and doctoral student positions at ELLIS Institute Finland | ELLIS Institute Finland
Call for postdocs and doctoral students in artificial intelligence and machine learning
www.ellisinstitute.fi
September 8, 2026 at 12:35 PM
I'm looking for doctoral students, postdocs and research fellows to work with on Bayesian Workflow. Flexible starting time
Say I've got a train dataset and a test data set.
I fit a linear model to the train set and evaluate within-sample error.
Then I fit the linear model to the train set and evaluate with the test set (i.e. cross validation).
The 2 models are identical and equally overfit. The metric is different.
I fit a linear model to the train set and evaluate within-sample error.
Then I fit the linear model to the train set and evaluate with the test set (i.e. cross validation).
The 2 models are identical and equally overfit. The metric is different.
I've probably moaned about this before. Cross validation doesn't control overfitting (your model is still just as overfit). It (tries to) estimates predictive performance without being tricked by overfitting. Big difference.
September 8, 2026 at 8:04 AM
Say I've got a train dataset and a test data set.
I fit a linear model to the train set and evaluate within-sample error.
Then I fit the linear model to the train set and evaluate with the test set (i.e. cross validation).
The 2 models are identical and equally overfit. The metric is different.
I fit a linear model to the train set and evaluate within-sample error.
Then I fit the linear model to the train set and evaluate with the test set (i.e. cross validation).
The 2 models are identical and equally overfit. The metric is different.
I've probably moaned about this before. Cross validation doesn't control overfitting (your model is still just as overfit). It (tries to) estimates predictive performance without being tricked by overfitting. Big difference.
September 8, 2026 at 8:01 AM
I've probably moaned about this before. Cross validation doesn't control overfitting (your model is still just as overfit). It (tries to) estimates predictive performance without being tricked by overfitting. Big difference.
Reposted by Stats For Bios
`stanflow` v0.2.0 is out!
`stanflow` is a metapackage a la `tidyverse` to provide a convenient way to install and manage #rstats Stan packages. The package is still in early stages; as such, if you want some features they can probably be added!
Stan forum:
discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stanflow-v...
`stanflow` is a metapackage a la `tidyverse` to provide a convenient way to install and manage #rstats Stan packages. The package is still in early stages; as such, if you want some features they can probably be added!
Stan forum:
discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stanflow-v...
`stanflow` v0.2.0 is out
It’s been a while, but stanflow v0.2.0 has just been released by @Visruth. stanflow is a metapackage a la tidyverse to provide a convenient way to install and manage R Stan packages. (See Soft relea...
discourse.mc-stan.org
September 1, 2026 at 5:58 PM
`stanflow` v0.2.0 is out!
`stanflow` is a metapackage a la `tidyverse` to provide a convenient way to install and manage #rstats Stan packages. The package is still in early stages; as such, if you want some features they can probably be added!
Stan forum:
discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stanflow-v...
`stanflow` is a metapackage a la `tidyverse` to provide a convenient way to install and manage #rstats Stan packages. The package is still in early stages; as such, if you want some features they can probably be added!
Stan forum:
discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stanflow-v...
Reposted by Stats For Bios
It's pretty wild to see how much the air quality has improved in the areas of London I frequented before I left. Looks like NO2 is now ~1/4 of what it used to be at my old uni when I started there. Fantastic stuff
2014: Harmful air pollution above legal limits.
2024: Harmful air pollution driven down to legal limits.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
2024: Harmful air pollution driven down to legal limits.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
September 2, 2026 at 11:07 AM
It's pretty wild to see how much the air quality has improved in the areas of London I frequented before I left. Looks like NO2 is now ~1/4 of what it used to be at my old uni when I started there. Fantastic stuff
Reposted by Stats For Bios
New paper out in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), with @claudiofronterre.bsky.social and Peter Diggle.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
A decay-adjusted spatio-temporal model to account for the impact of mass drug administration on neglected tropical disease prevalence
Abstract. Prevalence surveys are routinely used to monitor the effectiveness of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes for controlling Neglected Tropica
academic.oup.com
September 2, 2026 at 7:49 AM
New paper out in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), with @claudiofronterre.bsky.social and Peter Diggle.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
Playing around with my Goodreads data.
lm(My.Rating ~ Number.of.Pages + Year.Published + Author.Reads + Year.Added)
Author.Reads is how many books by that author I've read.
Anyone wanna play guess the R^2 or guess sign and sig of variables? #RStats
lm(My.Rating ~ Number.of.Pages + Year.Published + Author.Reads + Year.Added)
Author.Reads is how many books by that author I've read.
Anyone wanna play guess the R^2 or guess sign and sig of variables? #RStats
September 1, 2026 at 10:41 PM
Playing around with my Goodreads data.
lm(My.Rating ~ Number.of.Pages + Year.Published + Author.Reads + Year.Added)
Author.Reads is how many books by that author I've read.
Anyone wanna play guess the R^2 or guess sign and sig of variables? #RStats
lm(My.Rating ~ Number.of.Pages + Year.Published + Author.Reads + Year.Added)
Author.Reads is how many books by that author I've read.
Anyone wanna play guess the R^2 or guess sign and sig of variables? #RStats
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Great collection of Shiny apps (and R package) for #teaching #ecology. Apps come in different languages (including Spanish)
ecoevoapps.gitlab.io
ecoevoapps.gitlab.io
September 1, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Great collection of Shiny apps (and R package) for #teaching #ecology. Apps come in different languages (including Spanish)
ecoevoapps.gitlab.io
ecoevoapps.gitlab.io
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Accounting for Human Movement to Improve Exposure-Health Models https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.06.15.26355663v1
June 17, 2026 at 11:56 PM
Accounting for Human Movement to Improve Exposure-Health Models https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.06.15.26355663v1
Wanted to know how many unhidden slides I had in my ppt deck.
Found a useful solution (right click the file, properties. has slides and hidden slides).
The solution is given in such a smug way though! Duh, just look in the file properties.
learn.microsoft.com/en-us/answer...
Found a useful solution (right click the file, properties. has slides and hidden slides).
The solution is given in such a smug way though! Duh, just look in the file properties.
learn.microsoft.com/en-us/answer...
how to count unhidden slide in power point 365 - Microsoft Q&A
how to count unhidden slide in power point 365??
still use VBA ?
learn.microsoft.com
August 28, 2026 at 2:01 PM
Wanted to know how many unhidden slides I had in my ppt deck.
Found a useful solution (right click the file, properties. has slides and hidden slides).
The solution is given in such a smug way though! Duh, just look in the file properties.
learn.microsoft.com/en-us/answer...
Found a useful solution (right click the file, properties. has slides and hidden slides).
The solution is given in such a smug way though! Duh, just look in the file properties.
learn.microsoft.com/en-us/answer...
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Reread my blog post on the biggest problem in statistics. On re-read, I still don't think it is terrible (other than the typos and things). So I'll repost. timcdlucas.github.io/the-biggest-...
The Biggest Problem In Statistics
timcdlucas.github.io
August 25, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Reread my blog post on the biggest problem in statistics. On re-read, I still don't think it is terrible (other than the typos and things). So I'll repost. timcdlucas.github.io/the-biggest-...
Using a causal lens to help understand spatial models. No maths. Particularly relevant to spatial epidemiologists and species distribution modellers. But others as well.
timcdlucas.github.io/spatial_mode...
#SDM #malaria #GIS #episky #CausalInference
timcdlucas.github.io/spatial_mode...
#SDM #malaria #GIS #episky #CausalInference
Spatial_models_with_a_causal_lens
timcdlucas.github.io
August 28, 2026 at 8:20 AM
Using a causal lens to help understand spatial models. No maths. Particularly relevant to spatial epidemiologists and species distribution modellers. But others as well.
timcdlucas.github.io/spatial_mode...
#SDM #malaria #GIS #episky #CausalInference
timcdlucas.github.io/spatial_mode...
#SDM #malaria #GIS #episky #CausalInference
This series is really great. I read the whole economics one and dipped in and out of the maths one. Kind of high school level.
usborne.com/gb/books/ser...
usborne.com/gb/books/ser...
For Beginners - Series - Books | Usborne | Be Curious
We are the leading UK independent publisher of children's books. Our books are available worldwide. Browse our catalogue and find out where to buy Usborne books
usborne.com
August 27, 2026 at 7:06 PM
This series is really great. I read the whole economics one and dipped in and out of the maths one. Kind of high school level.
usborne.com/gb/books/ser...
usborne.com/gb/books/ser...
"Laughter has dug more useful tunnels all by itself than all the tears on earth." Cortázar - Hopscotch
Not sure if I agree but I like it nonetheless.
Not sure if I agree but I like it nonetheless.
August 26, 2026 at 6:20 PM
"Laughter has dug more useful tunnels all by itself than all the tears on earth." Cortázar - Hopscotch
Not sure if I agree but I like it nonetheless.
Not sure if I agree but I like it nonetheless.
Reposted by Stats For Bios
Estimating the effect of short term (hourly) air pollution is difficult but that's what we tried to do here. We used data that, unusually, has admission time. We found significant associations between NO2 and asthma admission at 3-6 hour lags but not other lags.
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/16/8...
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/16/8...
August 7, 2026 at 1:11 PM
Estimating the effect of short term (hourly) air pollution is difficult but that's what we tried to do here. We used data that, unusually, has admission time. We found significant associations between NO2 and asthma admission at 3-6 hour lags but not other lags.
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/16/8...
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/16/8...
Reread my blog post on the biggest problem in statistics. On re-read, I still don't think it is terrible (other than the typos and things). So I'll repost. timcdlucas.github.io/the-biggest-...
The Biggest Problem In Statistics
timcdlucas.github.io
August 25, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Reread my blog post on the biggest problem in statistics. On re-read, I still don't think it is terrible (other than the typos and things). So I'll repost. timcdlucas.github.io/the-biggest-...