Stefan Schubert
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
I run The Update newsletter: www.update.news
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Pinned
Our book on the psychology of effective altruism is now out.
The digital version is available for free: academic.oup.com/book/56384?l...
There's also an audiobook.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
And you can save 30% on a physical copy if you use the code AUFLY30. global.oup.com/academic
The digital version is available for free: academic.oup.com/book/56384?l...
There's also an audiobook.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
And you can save 30% on a physical copy if you use the code AUFLY30. global.oup.com/academic
Many people are optimistic about the potential for further progress in psychology, but I think they underestimate the obstacles, as well as how much of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked.
www.update.news/p/the-limits...
www.update.news/p/the-limits...
September 8, 2026 at 10:02 PM
Many people are optimistic about the potential for further progress in psychology, but I think they underestimate the obstacles, as well as how much of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked.
www.update.news/p/the-limits...
www.update.news/p/the-limits...
Why are our explanations of other people’s actions often so cynical? In today's post I lay out a series of causes and argue that this cynical bias is akin to our neglect of human agency.
www.update.news/p/the-roots-...
www.update.news/p/the-roots-...
August 28, 2026 at 10:15 AM
Why are our explanations of other people’s actions often so cynical? In today's post I lay out a series of causes and argue that this cynical bias is akin to our neglect of human agency.
www.update.news/p/the-roots-...
www.update.news/p/the-roots-...
Substantial existential risk is more likely to be concentrated in one or two outliers than in several unrelated threats.
August 13, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Substantial existential risk is more likely to be concentrated in one or two outliers than in several unrelated threats.
Existential risk estimates depend on both the difficulty of the problem (what it'd take to prevent disaster) and our likely response, but the first factor gets most attention. Here I argue that's a mistake.
www.update.news/p/the-respon...
www.update.news/p/the-respon...
August 6, 2026 at 11:47 AM
Existential risk estimates depend on both the difficulty of the problem (what it'd take to prevent disaster) and our likely response, but the first factor gets most attention. Here I argue that's a mistake.
www.update.news/p/the-respon...
www.update.news/p/the-respon...
Dan Williams recently argued that pessimism about human motivation – especially about overcoming selfishness – is more warranted than epistemic pessimism. I agree, and here discuss the psychological and evolutionary roots of this asymmetry.
www.update.news/p/why-were-e...
www.update.news/p/why-were-e...
Why we’re epistemically flexible but stubbornly self-regarding
A deep-rooted psychological asymmetry
www.update.news
July 31, 2026 at 1:21 PM
Dan Williams recently argued that pessimism about human motivation – especially about overcoming selfishness – is more warranted than epistemic pessimism. I agree, and here discuss the psychological and evolutionary roots of this asymmetry.
www.update.news/p/why-were-e...
www.update.news/p/why-were-e...
My friends and I made this path thirty years ago by larping in the ditch. I'm glad to see it has survived.
July 30, 2026 at 10:58 AM
My friends and I made this path thirty years ago by larping in the ditch. I'm glad to see it has survived.
Genuinely interesting and important take
General take is that people notice tax rises and cuts far less - note I'm being relative! - than politicians assume
July 29, 2026 at 1:49 PM
Genuinely interesting and important take
Chesterton's gate
July 29, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Chesterton's gate
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
I wrote a post about cultural differences between psychology and economics -- things were I specifically believe econ is doing better. Surprisingly, I still stand by those points 8 years later.
Somebody from econ should write a counterpart though about things that psychology does better 🤭
Somebody from econ should write a counterpart though about things that psychology does better 🤭
I agree that some of the criticisms are exaggerated but also think that the issues are deeper than this suggests.
I liked this post of yours.
www.the100.ci/2018/12/04/e...
I liked this post of yours.
www.the100.ci/2018/12/04/e...
The 100% CIEcon Envy – The 100% CI
Always confident. Sometimes credible.
www.the100.ci
July 28, 2026 at 1:17 PM
I wrote a post about cultural differences between psychology and economics -- things were I specifically believe econ is doing better. Surprisingly, I still stand by those points 8 years later.
Somebody from econ should write a counterpart though about things that psychology does better 🤭
Somebody from econ should write a counterpart though about things that psychology does better 🤭
Danish paper finds big economic gains from GLP-1 drugs.
“We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%.
We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.”
www.nber.org/papers/w35475
“We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%.
We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.”
www.nber.org/papers/w35475
July 28, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Danish paper finds big economic gains from GLP-1 drugs.
“We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%.
We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.”
www.nber.org/papers/w35475
“We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%.
We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.”
www.nber.org/papers/w35475
The UK used to be much more unequal than Sweden, but the Gini coefficients have almost converged.
Perceptions are lagging.
Perceptions are lagging.
July 28, 2026 at 12:46 PM
The UK used to be much more unequal than Sweden, but the Gini coefficients have almost converged.
Perceptions are lagging.
Perceptions are lagging.
I gave a talk on the case for epistemic discipline at EAGx Nordics.
When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...
When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...
The Case for Epistemic Discipline | Stefan Schubert | EAGxNordics 2026
YouTube video by Effective Altruism
www.youtube.com
June 17, 2026 at 4:41 PM
I gave a talk on the case for epistemic discipline at EAGx Nordics.
When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...
When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
“We’re good at solving problems, but not as good at seeing how other people solve theirs”
@stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap.
It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation:
buff.ly/7qE6E7i
@stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap.
It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation:
buff.ly/7qE6E7i
May 23, 2026 at 5:30 PM
“We’re good at solving problems, but not as good at seeing how other people solve theirs”
@stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap.
It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation:
buff.ly/7qE6E7i
@stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap.
It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation:
buff.ly/7qE6E7i
We're often much more rational as actors than as outside observers of other people's actions.
It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes.
www.update.news/p/the-ration...
It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes.
www.update.news/p/the-ration...
May 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM
We're often much more rational as actors than as outside observers of other people's actions.
It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes.
www.update.news/p/the-ration...
It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes.
www.update.news/p/the-ration...
Shootings have fallen more than 2/3 in Sweden the last three years
May 13, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Shootings have fallen more than 2/3 in Sweden the last three years
You can’t dismiss AI revenue growth as hype the way you might dismiss investments or high valuations.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
May 8, 2026 at 1:54 PM
You can’t dismiss AI revenue growth as hype the way you might dismiss investments or high valuations.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data.
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
The tables have turned on AI sceptics
Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines
www.update.news
May 7, 2026 at 3:57 PM
AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data.
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data.
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
The tables have turned on AI sceptics
Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines
www.update.news
May 7, 2026 at 3:57 PM
AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data.
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break.
www.update.news/p/the-tables...
People love sharing the OkCupid chart where women find most men unattractive, and the rumour that one in ten children has a different father than they think.
But some stories are too juicy to be true.
www.update.news/p/women-dont...
But some stories are too juicy to be true.
www.update.news/p/women-dont...
Women don’t think 80 percent of men are below average, and the share of children with a secret dad is far below 10 percent
Juicy stories are often false
www.update.news
April 24, 2026 at 1:12 PM
People love sharing the OkCupid chart where women find most men unattractive, and the rumour that one in ten children has a different father than they think.
But some stories are too juicy to be true.
www.update.news/p/women-dont...
But some stories are too juicy to be true.
www.update.news/p/women-dont...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Enjoyed the linked post by Alex Imas:
"If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself."
aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...
"If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself."
aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...
April 23, 2026 at 8:21 AM
Enjoyed the linked post by Alex Imas:
"If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself."
aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...
"If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself."
aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
April 22, 2026 at 1:21 PM
AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
April 22, 2026 at 1:21 PM
AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
There's been another good debate among economists about the impact of AI on the labour market, this time centred on a nice essay by Alex Imas.
But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be.
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be.
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
April 22, 2026 at 1:08 PM
There's been another good debate among economists about the impact of AI on the labour market, this time centred on a nice essay by Alex Imas.
But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be.
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be.
www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
Why clinical trials are broken & how to fix them: a reading list
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsMxed...
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsMxed...
Why clinical trials are broken & how to fix them: a reading list — EA Forum
12 articles including 4 podcasts • EA/LW Intro: I believe clinical trial abundance could be an EA cause area - there's still a lot of disability/dise…
forum.effectivealtruism.org
April 20, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Why clinical trials are broken & how to fix them: a reading list
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsMxed...
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsMxed...
Sweden and German intelligence agencies report that Russian official economic data is fake
www.ft.com/content/04a9...
www.ft.com/content/04a9...
April 20, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Sweden and German intelligence agencies report that Russian official economic data is fake
www.ft.com/content/04a9...
www.ft.com/content/04a9...