Dear readers, I warned you! You should never stand in front of a central bank in the FX market, and even less so when facing an alliance between two central banks, especially when the Fed is part of that alliance. On August 11, I published an analysis explaining that there was a strong probability that the USD/JPY exchange rate had reached its top following the massive coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities. You can read my analysis again by clicking on the chart …

The marked upward trend in Western bond yields since 2022 has become a major fundamental concern for markets. Oil prices, inflation, budget deficits and public debt are all factors pushing long-term yields higher, particularly in Europe, the United States and Japan. For the Japanese economy, the situation could become complicated because public debt represents more than 240% of GDP, while interest payments are taking up an increasingly large share of the government’s annual budget. The chart …

1) The shortest bear market in BTC history Against the seasonal statistics that traditionally make August the second-worst month in BTC history, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a vertical rise from $62,000 to $80,000. Has the bear market definitively ended on Wednesday, July 1, at $57,750? If the July 1 low at $57,750 were indeed to be the final bottom of the current Bitcoin bear market, the 2026 bearish cycle would have an exceptional characteristic. At 268 days, it would be significantly …

While Bitcoin may have ended its cyclical bear market on Wednesday, July 1, at $57,750, a similar question now arises for Strategy stock, the world’s largest holder of Bitcoin. Historically, and this may seem logical, Strategy stock has consistently been ahead of the technical signals provided by Bitcoin’s price. It is therefore essential for technical analysis to also confirm a major bottom in Strategy stock in order to validate the hypothesis of a major bottom in Bitcoin. First, I would …

Could Bitcoin be in the process of recording the shortest cyclical bear market in its recent history? While historical seasonality traditionally makes August a difficult month for BTC, the reality of the market is currently very different. After touching $62,000, Bitcoin experienced a particularly rapid rebound toward $80,000. A key question is therefore emerging: did the low recorded on July 1 at $57,750 mark the definitive end of the bear market? 1) A shorter-than-average bear market If …

The monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (FED) is the dominant fundamental factor for financial markets and the underlying trend of the US equity market. But a second fundamental theme is increasingly establishing itself as the faithful number two: US fiscal credibility, at a time when the budget deficit has fluctuated between 5% and 7% every year since 2019, while long-term bond yields have been following an upward trend since 2022. First of all, I invite you to reread the …

How can we properly track the underlying trend of the US dollar on the foreign exchange market? The best-known and most traditionally followed representation of the US dollar in trading rooms is the dollar index with the ticker DXY. You can find the DXY on TradingView. But the problem with this representation of the US dollar is that it gives too much weight to the Euro and excludes many of the United States’ trading partners, particularly China. This is why the Fed uses its Broad Dollar …

The return to the markets looks particularly interesting. After a summer marked by questions surrounding long-term US rates, the trajectory of inflation, the Fed’s monetary policy and the continuation of the investment cycle in artificial intelligence, September could be a decisive month for market direction. In my view, five major forces will genuinely drive the US stock market. The table below describes the 5 major fundamental factors that will shape the stock market trend in …

The upward trend in long-term US government bond yields is one of the major fundamental concerns at the moment. The US 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.33% during the August 18 trading session, a level not seen since 2007, meaning a 19-year high! Long-term borrowing costs for the US federal government and for all economic participants continue to rise and are approaching levels that could represent significant financial stress for the government and companies. The announced doubling of US …