Valastrius
@valastrius.bsky.social
BRD specializing in ska and cackles, most often in the direction of Crumbling Muscovy.
Pinned
Valastrius
@valastrius.bsky.social
· Nov 8
The First was Life, the Quickening of Matter
The Second Was Mind, the Awakening of Flesh
The Third was Glyph, the Embodying of Thought
The Fourth was Light, Weaving These into Sand
The Second Was Mind, the Awakening of Flesh
The Third was Glyph, the Embodying of Thought
The Fourth was Light, Weaving These into Sand
Reposted by Valastrius
Except this is a mirage. Dependence on the global hegemon is not a marginal thing. There is no political will to make drastic shifts in sec architecture. "Reduce dependence" is mostly empty Doing Something rhetoric. Prove me wrong: what moves are SUBSTANTIVELY making CN/EU indep't on security?
September 18, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Except this is a mirage. Dependence on the global hegemon is not a marginal thing. There is no political will to make drastic shifts in sec architecture. "Reduce dependence" is mostly empty Doing Something rhetoric. Prove me wrong: what moves are SUBSTANTIVELY making CN/EU indep't on security?
Reposted by Valastrius
SHOULD or WILL? SHOULD, the EU adds Canada and Ukraine, federalizes, doubles overall defense budget, puts nukes under collective management. That's what it'll take to be independent of the USA.
WILL? They'll push the bubble around under the wallpaper until 2029 and then back to status quo ante.
WILL? They'll push the bubble around under the wallpaper until 2029 and then back to status quo ante.
September 18, 2026 at 4:36 PM
SHOULD or WILL? SHOULD, the EU adds Canada and Ukraine, federalizes, doubles overall defense budget, puts nukes under collective management. That's what it'll take to be independent of the USA.
WILL? They'll push the bubble around under the wallpaper until 2029 and then back to status quo ante.
WILL? They'll push the bubble around under the wallpaper until 2029 and then back to status quo ante.
Reposted by Valastrius
This is, fwiw, inherently built into the concept of e.g. independence. Reducing dependence requires building the capacity for independent action. If it's not doing that, it's a gestural move and not actual dependence reduction.
So far, we've only seen gestural moves even *proposed* seriously.
So far, we've only seen gestural moves even *proposed* seriously.
September 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM
This is, fwiw, inherently built into the concept of e.g. independence. Reducing dependence requires building the capacity for independent action. If it's not doing that, it's a gestural move and not actual dependence reduction.
So far, we've only seen gestural moves even *proposed* seriously.
So far, we've only seen gestural moves even *proposed* seriously.
Reposted by Valastrius
That's just it, there can be no notable shifts in reliance/dependence without the infrastructure available for a massive break. It's like saying nations want to address climate change without committing to net zero; that's sure evidence the "solutions" are fitted to rhetoric rather than reality.
September 18, 2026 at 5:57 PM
That's just it, there can be no notable shifts in reliance/dependence without the infrastructure available for a massive break. It's like saying nations want to address climate change without committing to net zero; that's sure evidence the "solutions" are fitted to rhetoric rather than reality.
Reposted by Valastrius
To be very clear here, I'm completely persuadable that EU/CN are not just mealy-mouthing and running the clock on Trump and truly do want to break away from the USA as global hegemon. The reliable evidence of that will be profound, expensive, and unmistakable aggregation. Not seeing it to date.
September 18, 2026 at 4:55 PM
To be very clear here, I'm completely persuadable that EU/CN are not just mealy-mouthing and running the clock on Trump and truly do want to break away from the USA as global hegemon. The reliable evidence of that will be profound, expensive, and unmistakable aggregation. Not seeing it to date.
Reposted by Valastrius
At the same time, nobody seeking to win the next EU/CN election will come hat in hand and meekly admit there's naught to be done re: U.S. instability at a price voters want to pay. So know them by their fruits. It's just rhetoric unless/until defense budgets multiply and states federalize.
September 18, 2026 at 4:49 PM
At the same time, nobody seeking to win the next EU/CN election will come hat in hand and meekly admit there's naught to be done re: U.S. instability at a price voters want to pay. So know them by their fruits. It's just rhetoric unless/until defense budgets multiply and states federalize.
Reposted by Valastrius
If countries always did what's obviously in their long term interest regardless of political or actual cost, climate change wouldn't be an issue.
Independence from the USA is a generational and transformational project. Nobody wants to pay that cost and everybody sees the 2029 polling in the USA.
Independence from the USA is a generational and transformational project. Nobody wants to pay that cost and everybody sees the 2029 polling in the USA.
September 18, 2026 at 4:45 PM
If countries always did what's obviously in their long term interest regardless of political or actual cost, climate change wouldn't be an issue.
Independence from the USA is a generational and transformational project. Nobody wants to pay that cost and everybody sees the 2029 polling in the USA.
Independence from the USA is a generational and transformational project. Nobody wants to pay that cost and everybody sees the 2029 polling in the USA.
Reposted by Valastrius
...means it stops being about the physical actions of sex in groups or the interactions of drugs and sex and starts being about how do you navigate the desires of those with authority over you in the workplace; what does informed and autonomous consent actually look in that situation?
September 18, 2026 at 3:57 PM
...means it stops being about the physical actions of sex in groups or the interactions of drugs and sex and starts being about how do you navigate the desires of those with authority over you in the workplace; what does informed and autonomous consent actually look in that situation?
Reposted by Valastrius
yeah, this is in the context of silicon valley sex parties which we've had quite a few accounts of from people who felt pressured into things because going to sex parties was part of the company culture and the lack of separation between who you report to at work and who's in the cuddle puddle...
September 18, 2026 at 3:57 PM
yeah, this is in the context of silicon valley sex parties which we've had quite a few accounts of from people who felt pressured into things because going to sex parties was part of the company culture and the lack of separation between who you report to at work and who's in the cuddle puddle...
Heat Pumps ride at dawn.
We need a crash program to get New England off of oil heat. Stat.
September 18, 2026 at 4:04 PM
Heat Pumps ride at dawn.
Reposted by Valastrius
We need a crash program to get New England off of oil heat. Stat.
September 18, 2026 at 2:57 PM
We need a crash program to get New England off of oil heat. Stat.
Reposted by Valastrius
fully laughed out loud at numerous points
"As the Army, you play a cabal of deranged lower and middle officers who joined the army as a fallback when their promising careers as serial killers failed to get off the ground."
"As the Army, you play a cabal of deranged lower and middle officers who joined the army as a fallback when their promising careers as serial killers failed to get off the ground."
Absolutely lost my shit at this co-op mode for Hearts of Iron, which you play as the Army, Navy, Emperor, and Government. All have their own win conditions aside the Government, which lost the game automatically in 1925.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
True Imperial Japan Experience
True Imperial Japan Experience A Hearts of Iron 4 Game This is a counteroperative roleplaying game. The resolution system is a game of multiplayer Hearts of Iron 4 and a number of discord chats. Requi...
docs.google.com
September 18, 2026 at 3:29 PM
fully laughed out loud at numerous points
"As the Army, you play a cabal of deranged lower and middle officers who joined the army as a fallback when their promising careers as serial killers failed to get off the ground."
"As the Army, you play a cabal of deranged lower and middle officers who joined the army as a fallback when their promising careers as serial killers failed to get off the ground."
Reposted by Valastrius
Oh look, the likeliest outcome is MAGA getting crushed and a political realignment that leads to meaningful reforms.
Remember when Americans flocked to support a president making war?
Fox News poll: 60% say U.S. military action against Iran was the wrong decision, while 37% say it was right, widening the margin to 23 points, up from 17 points in June (58% to 41%).
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Fox News poll: 60% say U.S. military action against Iran was the wrong decision, while 37% say it was right, widening the margin to 23 points, up from 17 points in June (58% to 41%).
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 18, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Oh look, the likeliest outcome is MAGA getting crushed and a political realignment that leads to meaningful reforms.
Reposted by Valastrius
A university faculty member I know was asked to skip a colleague’s PhD defense (they’d been asked to attend for support) by the department chair who insisted it was mandatory to attend an FBI agent’s presentation on the dangers of AI to the institution’s unsecured data. This was today.
September 18, 2026 at 3:21 PM
A university faculty member I know was asked to skip a colleague’s PhD defense (they’d been asked to attend for support) by the department chair who insisted it was mandatory to attend an FBI agent’s presentation on the dangers of AI to the institution’s unsecured data. This was today.
Reposted by Valastrius
If you're wondering why I'm so het up about the "AI Doomerism" shit lately, it's because i have students who are actually scared about this shit from the credulous coverage the "AI" Bros' claims have been getting, & I've spent multiple hours trying to give them the tools to tear the fear-hype apart.
September 18, 2026 at 3:14 PM
If you're wondering why I'm so het up about the "AI Doomerism" shit lately, it's because i have students who are actually scared about this shit from the credulous coverage the "AI" Bros' claims have been getting, & I've spent multiple hours trying to give them the tools to tear the fear-hype apart.
Reposted by Valastrius
A thing that is striking (having just rewatched T2 the other night for the bazillionth time lol) is that Miles Dyson, the Cyberdyne engineer who makes the critical breakthrough on Skynet, upon learning of the certainty of apocalypse, immediately does whatever he can to discontinue its manufacture
September 18, 2026 at 12:55 PM
A thing that is striking (having just rewatched T2 the other night for the bazillionth time lol) is that Miles Dyson, the Cyberdyne engineer who makes the critical breakthrough on Skynet, upon learning of the certainty of apocalypse, immediately does whatever he can to discontinue its manufacture
Reposted by Valastrius
Put another way, the awesome scifi doom presupposes that we, collectively, are doing a *much better job* than there is any reason to believe we are, or should be expected to.
September 17, 2026 at 5:24 AM
Put another way, the awesome scifi doom presupposes that we, collectively, are doing a *much better job* than there is any reason to believe we are, or should be expected to.
Reposted by Valastrius
No one gets a PhD in "what if the people in charge of the Pentagon are chud idiots and they collapse the world economy because caring about strategy is Woke and Gay". But that is (self-evidently) a far more likely thing to happen, simply because it only requires stupidity to accomplish.
September 17, 2026 at 5:24 AM
No one gets a PhD in "what if the people in charge of the Pentagon are chud idiots and they collapse the world economy because caring about strategy is Woke and Gay". But that is (self-evidently) a far more likely thing to happen, simply because it only requires stupidity to accomplish.
Reposted by Valastrius
Certain kinds of smart people tend to have a "sexy apocalypse" problem when it comes to thinking about risk. E.g. skynet turning everyone in paperclips, while bad, is also *kind of cool and fun* at the same time. Where the reality is that most actual disasters are both stupid and disappointing.
September 17, 2026 at 5:20 AM
Certain kinds of smart people tend to have a "sexy apocalypse" problem when it comes to thinking about risk. E.g. skynet turning everyone in paperclips, while bad, is also *kind of cool and fun* at the same time. Where the reality is that most actual disasters are both stupid and disappointing.
Reposted by Valastrius
"GOP allies don’t need to be accommodated, they need to be crushed."
I'm 10000000000% on board with what Brian says here. The decision is to take on AI and have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us, or not take on AI and still have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us.
I'm 10000000000% on board with what Brian says here. The decision is to take on AI and have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us, or not take on AI and still have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us.
September 18, 2026 at 3:39 PM
"GOP allies don’t need to be accommodated, they need to be crushed."
I'm 10000000000% on board with what Brian says here. The decision is to take on AI and have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us, or not take on AI and still have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us.
I'm 10000000000% on board with what Brian says here. The decision is to take on AI and have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us, or not take on AI and still have massive amounts of capital try to destroy us.
Reposted by Valastrius
There have always been humans who thought:
1) The world will end soon
2) It will happen in a cool, exciting way
3) It’ll happen to me personally
4) I’ll be a martyred prophet, or a warlord, or otherwise special
5) People who don’t see this are lesser
“Sexy apocalypse” is a great phrase for that
1) The world will end soon
2) It will happen in a cool, exciting way
3) It’ll happen to me personally
4) I’ll be a martyred prophet, or a warlord, or otherwise special
5) People who don’t see this are lesser
“Sexy apocalypse” is a great phrase for that
Certain kinds of smart people tend to have a "sexy apocalypse" problem when it comes to thinking about risk. E.g. skynet turning everyone in paperclips, while bad, is also *kind of cool and fun* at the same time. Where the reality is that most actual disasters are both stupid and disappointing.
September 18, 2026 at 1:17 PM
There have always been humans who thought:
1) The world will end soon
2) It will happen in a cool, exciting way
3) It’ll happen to me personally
4) I’ll be a martyred prophet, or a warlord, or otherwise special
5) People who don’t see this are lesser
“Sexy apocalypse” is a great phrase for that
1) The world will end soon
2) It will happen in a cool, exciting way
3) It’ll happen to me personally
4) I’ll be a martyred prophet, or a warlord, or otherwise special
5) People who don’t see this are lesser
“Sexy apocalypse” is a great phrase for that
Reposted by Valastrius
so i had my 1:1 call with my manager today, he wanted to talk about my title :)
i'm getting demoted :( they're dropping me a rung on the scale, back to an "individual contributor" title. nothing in my performance review about this btw
i'm getting demoted :( they're dropping me a rung on the scale, back to an "individual contributor" title. nothing in my performance review about this btw
September 18, 2026 at 4:21 AM
so i had my 1:1 call with my manager today, he wanted to talk about my title :)
i'm getting demoted :( they're dropping me a rung on the scale, back to an "individual contributor" title. nothing in my performance review about this btw
i'm getting demoted :( they're dropping me a rung on the scale, back to an "individual contributor" title. nothing in my performance review about this btw
Reposted by Valastrius
Let me guess, drops your pay *but* you’re expected the maintain the workload and responsibilities of the previous title. sigh
September 18, 2026 at 4:41 AM
Let me guess, drops your pay *but* you’re expected the maintain the workload and responsibilities of the previous title. sigh
Reposted by Valastrius
love to be logged into the job that clearly wants me out at this point while on the train to DC to visit friends. this is normal
so i had my 1:1 call with my manager today, he wanted to talk about my title :)
i'm getting demoted :( they're dropping me a rung on the scale, back to an "individual contributor" title. nothing in my performance review about this btw
i'm getting demoted :( they're dropping me a rung on the scale, back to an "individual contributor" title. nothing in my performance review about this btw
September 18, 2026 at 3:39 PM
love to be logged into the job that clearly wants me out at this point while on the train to DC to visit friends. this is normal