The Governance ratings of 6 of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. This reflects worsening scores across data reflecting corruption, rule of law, press freedom and political rights. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

East Asia has been the primary driving force in global growth over the recent decades, but rapidly falling fertility rates suggest the region may cede its lead over the coming years. Childbearing levels across the region have been, on average, below the replacement rate since 2010. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

In its share of global growth over the last decade, Pakistan ranks 3rd. Yet, due to Pakistan’s already high average temperature, climate change – as for much of South Asia – will be a key challenge for this developing country. Moreover, its average temperature has been rising over recent decades. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The chart below shows East Asian countries have been catching up (and even surpassing ) US GDP per Capita in recent years . South Korea for example, is already approaching US GDP per capita levels. Given Chinas 40 year record of rapid GDP growth, likely slowly declining population, and central place in Asia, by far the worlds fastest growing region, there seems little reason to suppose it wont one day rival the US in terms of wealth per capita. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

It is said (attributed to George Bernard Shaw and many others) that God always favours the big battalions in war, meaning that whoever has the greatest resources is likely - sooner or later - to triumph over the many other factors that can play a part. If this is the case, NATO should have no difficulty in pushing Russia out of Ukraine, should it ever get round to offering full blooded support, as the combined GDP of NATO affiliated states is almost 8 times the GDP of Russia. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Brazil’s fertility rate has been declining and has been sub-replacement since 2003. Retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. Simultaneously, Brazil’s working-age population has started to shrink. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Climate change is likely to cause many different problems ranging from rising sea levels to more erratic and severe weather patterns. While impossible to be sure of the precise impact of global warming, it is reasonable to suppose that those countries with the highest average temperatures today will be first in line to suffer serious problems. - - The - United Nations Climate Action Fast Facts - documentation lists (amongst others) the following items relating to temperature rise, that are already measurable: - - - 2015-2025 - includes the 11 warmest years on record; 2024 was the warmest single year (~1.55°C above pre-industrial), and 2025 was third-warmest. 2015-2024 was the warmest decade. - - Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2,000 years. - - On the current path of carbon dioxide emissions, temperature could increase by as much as 4.4°C by the end of the century. - - The - Earth is now about 1.4–1.42°C warmer - (decadal average) than in the 1800s (1850–1900 baseline). We are not on track to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C per the Paris Agreement; temporary breaches are occurring and more are likely without accelerated action. - - The table shows average temperatures over various periods for the ten currently hottest countries in the Americas. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Fertility rates across eastern Europe have been in decline for six decades. This has caused a collapse in working-age populations across the region. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger portion of these post-Soviet populations. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

If current trends continue, 30% of countries will have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.0 or less by 2050. The replacement threshold required to stabilise a population is 2.1. These low TFRs, at 1 or below, would create successive generations which are half or less the size than that of the previous generation. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Belarus’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Over the past decade, many countries within the B-grade category have significantly declined on the World Economics Governance Index. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

A declining fertility rate is causing Ireland’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the French working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The table below illustrates the remarkable progress of the Asia-Pacific region in the past decade in GDP per Capita terms. The region’s GDP per capita increased by 45.8%. Although growth has been dramatic, the region still lags behind the Americas and Europe, where the level of GDP per capita is about twice as high. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

China and India’s combined share of global GDP may approach 35% within the next decade. India is quite likely to overtake the U.S. to become the worlds second biggest country in GDP terms by 2032. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Thailand’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.2%, and decades of low fertility is now causing the working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Romania’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The quality of economic data, and in particular GDP data, is of considerable importance. A number of countries produce GDP data of such poor quality that it is of little value in determining the size and growth of economic activity. World Economics reviews quarterly GDP and Population data quality for 155+ countries. - - Governance is also of great importance. Research shows that countries with little respect for the rule of law, political rights and press freedom, tend to manipulate economic data in ways they see as favourable to themselves. Countries run by dictators have been shown to exaggerate annual economic growth by 30% or more. - - The table below shows the countries in the Emerging Markets we believe to have reasonable Governance and produce believable GDP and Population data. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The - Potsdam Institute - for climate impact research (backed by the German Government) estimates the increasing damage from rising temperatures and changes in rainfall is likely to reach $38 trillion per year by 2050. This cost burden is already being felt, as illustrated by rising - insurance premiums - . Whilst the overall burden is very high, some countries are far more vulnerable to this damage than others. The chart below shows a selection of countries ranging from the least to the most likely to be impacted. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Russia’s - Governance Index - rating has declined sharply over the last decade. Consequently, Russia now sits close to the very bottom of the 156 countries included in the Index table, alongside the likes of Sudan, Myanmar and Afghanistan. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Slovakia’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

India is the third largest country in the world when measured in GDP PPP terms. Furthermore, it is possible that India will - overtake - the USA within a decade as the world’s second largest economy. However, climate change will likely be a key challenge facing the country over the coming decades. India already has a very high average temperature in comparison with other economically significant countries. Moreover, its average temperature has been rising over recent decades. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Pakistan’s rating has declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. Standards have fallen in the country across data reflecting corruption, the rule of law, press freedom and political rights. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Pakistan’s rating has declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. Standards have fallen in the country across data reflecting corruption, the rule of law, press freedom and political rights. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.