@adnanm.bsky.social
Reposted
The Iran war has damaged the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & UAE, which have made ambitious investment commitments to the US. The war has weakened their finances, growth prospects, & trust in US security guarantees. The question now is whether, & how, the countries will implement commitments.
The Iran war is raising doubts over Trump’s "America First" foreign investment goal
The Iran war has damaged the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which have made ambitious investment commitments to the United States. The war has weakened their finances, growth prospects...
www.piie.com
September 14, 2026 at 2:47 PM
The Iran war has damaged the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & UAE, which have made ambitious investment commitments to the US. The war has weakened their finances, growth prospects, & trust in US security guarantees. The question now is whether, & how, the countries will implement commitments.
Reposted
Treasury is the more appropriate lending conduit for dollar liquidity when geopolitical concerns dominate, while Fed dollar provision should primarily be targeted toward global stability objectives & be more insulated from short-term foreign policy motives, Adnan Mazarei & Maurice Obstfeld write.
Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence
Over the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the econo...
www.piie.com
June 15, 2026 at 5:31 PM
Treasury is the more appropriate lending conduit for dollar liquidity when geopolitical concerns dominate, while Fed dollar provision should primarily be targeted toward global stability objectives & be more insulated from short-term foreign policy motives, Adnan Mazarei & Maurice Obstfeld write.
Reposted
Latest Must Read from PIIE's Adnan Mazarei and Maurice Obstfeld: Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence www.piie.com/publications...
Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence
Over the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the econo...
www.piie.com
June 15, 2026 at 6:39 PM
Latest Must Read from PIIE's Adnan Mazarei and Maurice Obstfeld: Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence www.piie.com/publications...
Reposted
LISTEN: @adnanm.bsky.social explores with @mdebolle.com the ramifications of another war in Iran; what it means for oil, natural gas, & other critical input markets; & how it might affect environmental efforts & the green transition.
Here or wherever you get podcasts:
Here or wherever you get podcasts:
How the war on Iran exposes global economic interconnectedness (Episode 29)
The war against Iran by the United States and Israel has spread turmoil through oil and natural gas markets, spiking prices and threatening the world economy. How will the war impact the global econom...
www.piie.com
March 24, 2026 at 3:59 PM
LISTEN: @adnanm.bsky.social explores with @mdebolle.com the ramifications of another war in Iran; what it means for oil, natural gas, & other critical input markets; & how it might affect environmental efforts & the green transition.
Here or wherever you get podcasts:
Here or wherever you get podcasts:
Reposted
Join us on March 25 for an exciting discussion of the role critical minerals play in shaping Brazil-US economic economic relations featuring @mdebolle.com, Pedro Guerra (MDIC) and Bruna Santos @ Inter-American Dialogue!
How critical are critical minerals in the Brazil-US economic relationship?
Policymakers and experts discuss the role of critical minerals in shaping the Brazil-US economic partnership, examining Brazil's economic situation, the importance of critical minerals to both Brazil ...
www.piie.com
March 11, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Join us on March 25 for an exciting discussion of the role critical minerals play in shaping Brazil-US economic economic relations featuring @mdebolle.com, Pedro Guerra (MDIC) and Bruna Santos @ Inter-American Dialogue!
Reposted
Petrochemical firm owners concentrate among corporations, geographically in China, the US, & Saudi Arabia—but ownership ≠ control. Chinese & other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors have limited control from passive investments. Saudi Arabia fully controls its investments.
Who controls the global petrochemical industry, and how might that change?
Petrochemicals—used in everything from fertilizers, solar panels, clothing, and cosmetics to electric vehicles, electronics, and medicines—are integral to food security, manufacturing, and clean energ...
www.piie.com
March 20, 2026 at 4:14 PM
Petrochemical firm owners concentrate among corporations, geographically in China, the US, & Saudi Arabia—but ownership ≠ control. Chinese & other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors have limited control from passive investments. Saudi Arabia fully controls its investments.
Reposted
The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts
More: www.piie.com/research/pii...
More: www.piie.com/research/pii...
February 17, 2026 at 8:14 PM
The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts
More: www.piie.com/research/pii...
More: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Reposted
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
January 29, 2026 at 5:42 PM
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
Reposted
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries can fulfill them.
America First investment pledges: Big numbers but uncertain results
In July 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced "a strategic realignment of the US-Japan economic relationship,” including a Japanese commitment to invest $550 billion to “rebuild and expand core American industries” in projects to be approved by Trum...
www.piie.com
February 3, 2026 at 5:37 PM
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries can fulfill them.
Reposted
Latest from PIIE's Mazarei and Auclair: The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic? (Spoiler Alert: May be less than meets the eye) www.piie.com/publications...
The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?
In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump’s “America First” agenda, the administration has engaged in high-level bilateral negotiations with allies and partners to encourage them to invest in US industr...
www.piie.com
January 27, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Latest from PIIE's Mazarei and Auclair: The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic? (Spoiler Alert: May be less than meets the eye) www.piie.com/publications...
Reposted
“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt etc., which underscored the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” Adnan Mazarei says. The bank failure added to “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”
A Tehran bank collapsed under the weight of bad loans to regime cronies. For some ordinary Iranians, it was the last straw.
The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin
Bad loans to regime cronies brought down Ayandeh Bank, accelerating a long-running financial crisis.
on.wsj.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:52 PM
“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt etc., which underscored the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” Adnan Mazarei says. The bank failure added to “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”
Reposted
A Tehran bank collapsed under the weight of bad loans to regime cronies. For some ordinary Iranians, it was the last straw.
The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin
Bad loans to regime cronies brought down Ayandeh Bank, accelerating a long-running financial crisis.
on.wsj.com
January 14, 2026 at 5:14 AM
A Tehran bank collapsed under the weight of bad loans to regime cronies. For some ordinary Iranians, it was the last straw.
Reposted
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking.
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
www.piie.com
January 12, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking.
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Reposted
My interview with Novara media on what has motivated Iran and where the revolution is heading. youtu.be/jNHto1eQtSQ?...
Everything You’re Told About Iran Is Wrong | Aaron Bastani Meets Vali Nasr
YouTube video by Novara Media
youtu.be
October 27, 2025 at 12:24 AM
My interview with Novara media on what has motivated Iran and where the revolution is heading. youtu.be/jNHto1eQtSQ?...
Reposted
ICYMI: Adnan Mazarei joined PIIE Insider LIVE to explain what it will take to rebuild Syria's economy, what's going on with oil markets in the Middle East, & more.
Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:
Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:
The latest on Middle East economies: Syria, oil markets, and more
Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, and Adnan Mazarei, PIIE nonresident senior fellow and a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, hold a live, virtua...
www.piie.com
July 28, 2025 at 6:46 PM
ICYMI: Adnan Mazarei joined PIIE Insider LIVE to explain what it will take to rebuild Syria's economy, what's going on with oil markets in the Middle East, & more.
Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:
Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:
Reposted
JULY 24: Adnan Mazarei joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss rebuilding Syria's economy, what's happening with oil markets in the Middle East, & more.
Register to watch & ask questions live or subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get your podcasts to listen anytime: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Register to watch & ask questions live or subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get your podcasts to listen anytime: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
July 22, 2025 at 7:55 PM
JULY 24: Adnan Mazarei joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss rebuilding Syria's economy, what's happening with oil markets in the Middle East, & more.
Register to watch & ask questions live or subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get your podcasts to listen anytime: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Register to watch & ask questions live or subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get your podcasts to listen anytime: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Reposted
"This is bad news for the US and its trading partners. But the biggest impact on quality of life will be in developing countries that account for a small part of the US trade deficit."
Brian Webster & @charlesjkenny.bsky.social on US tariffs & developing countries:
Brian Webster & @charlesjkenny.bsky.social on US tariffs & developing countries:
The New US Tariff Regime Will Have Its Greatest Impact in Developing Countries
Yesterday, President Trump announced a sweeping change to US trade policy, imposing tariffs larger than those enacted under the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that helped deepen the Great Depression. US…
bit.ly
April 4, 2025 at 11:00 PM
"This is bad news for the US and its trading partners. But the biggest impact on quality of life will be in developing countries that account for a small part of the US trade deficit."
Brian Webster & @charlesjkenny.bsky.social on US tariffs & developing countries:
Brian Webster & @charlesjkenny.bsky.social on US tariffs & developing countries:
Reposted
Sovereign wealth fund plans appear to be taking shape.
Color me skeptical that this won't end up as a Trump slush fund, probably separate from Congressional decision-making and oversight, funded by tariffs passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Color me skeptical that this won't end up as a Trump slush fund, probably separate from Congressional decision-making and oversight, funded by tariffs passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
March 5, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Sovereign wealth fund plans appear to be taking shape.
Color me skeptical that this won't end up as a Trump slush fund, probably separate from Congressional decision-making and oversight, funded by tariffs passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Color me skeptical that this won't end up as a Trump slush fund, probably separate from Congressional decision-making and oversight, funded by tariffs passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult give that Iran and Russia are the principal creditors.
Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult give that Iran and Russia are the principal creditors.
Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult
The author is grateful to Lee Buchheit, Anna Gelpern, and Sean Hagan for very helpful discussions of some of the legal aspects of restructurings, and to Rabah Arezki, Tim Willems, and several PIIE col...
www.piie.com
March 3, 2025 at 8:47 AM
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult give that Iran and Russia are the principal creditors.
Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult give that Iran and Russia are the principal creditors.
Reposted
Unfortunately not an uncommon problem . . . as Mazarei, Obstfeld, and I have written about -> www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
December 2, 2024 at 4:17 PM
Unfortunately not an uncommon problem . . . as Mazarei, Obstfeld, and I have written about -> www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Reposted
A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem, writes PIIE's Adnan Mazeri www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem
The Trump administration has called for the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund (SWF) (White House 2025) by early 2026. The president also suggested that TikTok would make an attractive investment target for such a fund. He directed the secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce Departments working with the director of the Office of Management and Budget to deliver a plan for a US SWF within 90 days.
www.piie.com
February 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem, writes PIIE's Adnan Mazeri www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Reposted
Without robust governance, a US sovereign wealth fund is more likely to divert funds from one area to another & crowd out, not mobilize, new private investments. It risks large-scale distortions & capture by special interests & could well increase US public debt. Read:
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
February 12, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Without robust governance, a US sovereign wealth fund is more likely to divert funds from one area to another & crowd out, not mobilize, new private investments. It risks large-scale distortions & capture by special interests & could well increase US public debt. Read:
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Reposted
Egypt tends to face a currency crisis once a decade, the latest was 2022-24
I agree with @adnanm.bsky.social's piece that risks to its post-crisis economy remain:
1. Geopolitical risks
2. Political instability threats
3. Higher global yields under Trump
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
I agree with @adnanm.bsky.social's piece that risks to its post-crisis economy remain:
1. Geopolitical risks
2. Political instability threats
3. Higher global yields under Trump
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
Egypt’s Economic Crisis May Not Be Over | by Adnan Mazarei - Project Syndicate
Adnan Mazarei urges the international community to push for long-overdue governance and economic reforms.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 30, 2025 at 5:24 AM
Egypt tends to face a currency crisis once a decade, the latest was 2022-24
I agree with @adnanm.bsky.social's piece that risks to its post-crisis economy remain:
1. Geopolitical risks
2. Political instability threats
3. Higher global yields under Trump
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
I agree with @adnanm.bsky.social's piece that risks to its post-crisis economy remain:
1. Geopolitical risks
2. Political instability threats
3. Higher global yields under Trump
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
Reposted
While the international community must maintain its financial support for Egypt, pushing the authorities to implement long-overdue governance and economic reforms is equally, if not more, important, argues @piie.com’s Adnan Mazarei. bit.ly/3CBJW3K
Egypt’s Economic Crisis May Not Be Over | by Adnan Mazarei - Project Syndicate
Adnan Mazarei urges the international community to push for long-overdue governance and economic reforms.
bit.ly
January 29, 2025 at 3:58 PM
While the international community must maintain its financial support for Egypt, pushing the authorities to implement long-overdue governance and economic reforms is equally, if not more, important, argues @piie.com’s Adnan Mazarei. bit.ly/3CBJW3K
My interview with Bloomberg Asharq on the reconstruction of Syria (in Arabic)
now.asharq.com/clip/50-%D9%...
now.asharq.com/clip/50-%D9%...
50% من البنية التحتية السورية معطلة.. والاقتصاد ينتظر الدعم - الشرق مع Bloomberg
تتطلب إعادة إعمار سوريا تمويلا بين 250 و300 مليار دولار، مع تضرر البنية التحتية بنسبة 68%. دعم الكهرباء والزراعة ضروري لتحريك عجلة الاقتصاد.. شاهد عبر الشرق NOW.
now.asharq.com
December 13, 2024 at 4:43 PM
My interview with Bloomberg Asharq on the reconstruction of Syria (in Arabic)
now.asharq.com/clip/50-%D9%...
now.asharq.com/clip/50-%D9%...