For years, Iran signalled Dimona as a target but avoided striking it. That restraint is gone.
Today’s move suggests a shift from calibrated deterrence to accepting nuclear-adjacent escalation risk — likely judging the signalling value now outweighs the escalation cost.
Today’s move suggests a shift from calibrated deterrence to accepting nuclear-adjacent escalation risk — likely judging the signalling value now outweighs the escalation cost.
March 21, 2026 at 10:58 PM
For years, Iran signalled Dimona as a target but avoided striking it. That restraint is gone.
Today’s move suggests a shift from calibrated deterrence to accepting nuclear-adjacent escalation risk — likely judging the signalling value now outweighs the escalation cost.
Today’s move suggests a shift from calibrated deterrence to accepting nuclear-adjacent escalation risk — likely judging the signalling value now outweighs the escalation cost.
The US choice space on Iran looks fairly binary: demonstrate overwhelming overmatch to re-establish escalation control (costly), or a climb down (politically difficult).
I suspect markets will push hard for the latter.
I suspect markets will push hard for the latter.
March 9, 2026 at 7:37 PM
The US choice space on Iran looks fairly binary: demonstrate overwhelming overmatch to re-establish escalation control (costly), or a climb down (politically difficult).
I suspect markets will push hard for the latter.
I suspect markets will push hard for the latter.
Further pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is probably Iran’s attempt to create leverage for an off-ramp. Escalate economically to force others to de-escalate politically.
March 8, 2026 at 9:02 PM
Further pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is probably Iran’s attempt to create leverage for an off-ramp. Escalate economically to force others to de-escalate politically.