Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
@ak4sb.bsky.social
A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The trend in the #akleg races helps us decide about the #akgov race, a new question for candidates to test their knowledge and approach to the state budget & why it’s time for another Ross Perot. #akleg buff.ly/QIWp1bb
September 17, 2026 at 7:30 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The trend in the #akleg races helps us decide about the #akgov race, a new question for candidates to test their knowledge and approach to the state budget & why it’s time for another Ross Perot. #akleg buff.ly/QIWp1bb
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.64% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.85% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 15.64% v PFC 11.36%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.64% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.85% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 15.64% v PFC 11.36%
September 17, 2026 at 4:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$909mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$31mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$909mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$31mil)
#akleg
September 17, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$909mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$31mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$909mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$31mil)
#akleg
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg
Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 21% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -20kbd (-4%) v. F'cast.
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Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 21% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -20kbd (-4%) v. F'cast.
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September 17, 2026 at 3:14 PM
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg
Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 21% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -20kbd (-4%) v. F'cast.
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Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 21% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -20kbd (-4%) v. F'cast.
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The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:
YTD 2026 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 84% & 98%.
#akleg
YTD 2026 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 84% & 98%.
#akleg
September 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM
The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:
YTD 2026 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 84% & 98%.
#akleg
YTD 2026 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 84% & 98%.
#akleg
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.70% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.03% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.01% v PFC 11.36%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.70% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.03% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.01% v PFC 11.36%
September 16, 2026 at 4:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $20 (+$984mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$34mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $20 (+$984mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$34mil)
#akleg
September 16, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $20 (+$984mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$34mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $20 (+$984mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$34mil)
#akleg
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The trend in the #akleg races helps us decide about the #akgov race, a new question for candidates to test their knowledge and approach to the state budget & why it’s time for another Ross Perot. #akleg buff.ly/QIWp1bb
September 16, 2026 at 3:00 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The trend in the #akleg races helps us decide about the #akgov race, a new question for candidates to test their knowledge and approach to the state budget & why it’s time for another Ross Perot. #akleg buff.ly/QIWp1bb
Sept Oil Mkt Rpts| While EIA and IEA project overall supply deficits this year, both continue to see huge supply surpluses for next year (2027), likely leading to a significant softening in 2027 prices. #akleg
September 15, 2026 at 7:30 PM
Sept Oil Mkt Rpts| While EIA and IEA project overall supply deficits this year, both continue to see huge supply surpluses for next year (2027), likely leading to a significant softening in 2027 prices. #akleg
New Federal fiscal dashboard from the Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget. A great (in the sense of providing hard facts) resource for those, like us, concerned about the nation's fiscal direction. #akleg buff.ly/UyMb06U
September 15, 2026 at 6:00 PM
New Federal fiscal dashboard from the Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget. A great (in the sense of providing hard facts) resource for those, like us, concerned about the nation's fiscal direction. #akleg buff.ly/UyMb06U
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 12.99% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.72% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.09% v PFC 11.36%
* 5-yr: S&P 12.99% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.72% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.09% v PFC 11.36%
September 15, 2026 at 4:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$17mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$17mil)
#akleg
September 15, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$17mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $1 (avg annual -$17mil)
#akleg
The Tuesday Chart| #akleg Given Southcentral winter service concerns, we have started a new weekly chart tracking the current status of the two commercial Cook Inlet gas storage fields, based on the public dashboards each maintains, as well as the most recent aggregate (all fields) DNR Dashboard.
September 15, 2026 at 3:01 PM
The Tuesday Chart| #akleg Given Southcentral winter service concerns, we have started a new weekly chart tracking the current status of the two commercial Cook Inlet gas storage fields, based on the public dashboards each maintains, as well as the most recent aggregate (all fields) DNR Dashboard.
This Wk's Top 3| How the #akleg races are helping decide what to do in the #akgov's race, a new question for the #akleg candidates that helps separate the wheat from the chaff & why we need a Ross Perot in 2028. T'row 6:05a on The Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/ZErtvvv
September 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM
This Wk's Top 3| How the #akleg races are helping decide what to do in the #akgov's race, a new question for the #akleg candidates that helps separate the wheat from the chaff & why we need a Ross Perot in 2028. T'row 6:05a on The Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/ZErtvvv
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 13.03% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.08% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.61% v PFC 11.36%
* 5-yr: S&P 13.03% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.08% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.61% v PFC 11.36%
September 14, 2026 at 4:35 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 Even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 Even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
September 14, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 Even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$914mil)
> FY28-36 Even (avg annual $0mil)
#akleg
The Monday Charts | Consistent with the approach explained at bit.ly/3QhAUju, each Monday we use current futures market prices to compare the projected #AKLNG in-state-only (Phase 1) and #AKLNG export (Phase 2) prices against market alternatives. #akleg
September 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM
The Monday Charts | Consistent with the approach explained at bit.ly/3QhAUju, each Monday we use current futures market prices to compare the projected #AKLNG in-state-only (Phase 1) and #AKLNG export (Phase 2) prices against market alternatives. #akleg
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Why “incentives” should be treated as spending, the Alaska Beacon misses the story on where the K-12 supplemental really comes from & the federal effort to streamline NPRA permitting is a good thing. #akleg buff.ly/zTHsP8D
The Weekly Top 3 (9.7.2026)
Why “incentives” should be treated as spending, the Alaska Beacon misses the story on where the K-12 supplemental really comes from & the federal effort to streamline NPRA permitting is a good thing
bgkeithley.substack.com
September 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Why “incentives” should be treated as spending, the Alaska Beacon misses the story on where the K-12 supplemental really comes from & the federal effort to streamline NPRA permitting is a good thing. #akleg buff.ly/zTHsP8D
Monthly, we look at indices affecting Alaska income. This month, we're tracking U.S. Treasury rates. Higher rates tighten the cost of living and pressure asset values. While still lower than those that drove Ross Perot, they are rising materially. #akleg
September 13, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Monthly, we look at indices affecting Alaska income. This month, we're tracking U.S. Treasury rates. Higher rates tighten the cost of living and pressure asset values. While still lower than those that drove Ross Perot, they are rising materially. #akleg
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
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FRED Graph
FRED Graph
buff.ly
September 13, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 ship ret'n from, 1 underway to maint. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 7.3
* Not in ANS service: 2 (1 CP, 1 HIL) in maint
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 8 (4 CP, 2 HIL, 2 EM, 0 MPC)
* Deliveries month to date: 7.3
* Not in ANS service: 2 (1 CP, 1 HIL) in maint
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 8 (4 CP, 2 HIL, 2 EM, 0 MPC)
September 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM
The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 ship ret'n from, 1 underway to maint. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 7.3
* Not in ANS service: 2 (1 CP, 1 HIL) in maint
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 8 (4 CP, 2 HIL, 2 EM, 0 MPC)
* Deliveries month to date: 7.3
* Not in ANS service: 2 (1 CP, 1 HIL) in maint
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 8 (4 CP, 2 HIL, 2 EM, 0 MPC)
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $93, behind Brent (-$0.37), but ahead of Brent/WTI avg (+$2.35). #akleg
September 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $93, behind Brent (-$0.37), but ahead of Brent/WTI avg (+$2.35). #akleg
The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 20% of FY27 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 21% to SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY27 WAVG currently $91. #akleg
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September 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM
The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 20% of FY27 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 21% to SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY27 WAVG currently $91. #akleg
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 13.03% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.08% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.61% v PFC 11.36%
* 5-yr: S&P 13.03% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.08% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.61% v PFC 11.36%
September 12, 2026 at 4:35 PM