Yes investing is still primarily to buy a stake in stocks/bonds/commodities, but there are instruments that can basically act the same as regular gambling. AFAIK thankfully isn't the amount of predatory behavior as sports gambling, but the risk is still available for people

From my POV, the recent trend seems that investing is being marketed (or at least socialized) to new investors like gambling. 0DTE's, crypto funds, gold/silver ETFs, and leveraged ETF's are all very risky speculation. Plus many investing sites present crypto + prediction markets on equal footing

I'm not a fan of Warsh's but the stuff he said today seems like the base case for what was expected going in (less forward guidance, dovish bias, data changes TBD)

Gonna be the buzzkill and note that he stopped speaking around 3:15pm (stocks flat it looks like). The real selloff is unfortunately stupider (Trump's stirring up a trade war with Canada/Mexico)

"JEFFERIES, WELLS FARGO ALSO AMONG LENDERS TO COLLAPSED MFS" fixed it

What do you have in mind? A few things that I've been looking for but haven't seen yet:
- Evidence of probing Iranian radars
- Forward deployment of support aircraft (AWACS, EW), excluding the carrier air wing
- Public statements building legitimacy for strikes

Meta is another (but those could just be bc poor VR profitability) www.usatoday.com/story/news/c...

I'm not a volatility product expert so I'm curious whether this will change when SPX option trading opens

Birds will be just one part of the newly reformed CBP (Critter and Birder Patrol)

Operations away the border will continue to be the domain of ICE (Interesting Critter Expos)

Yeah that's a good point. My speculation would be that things would be harder for OSINT in the VZ situation (shorter distances for any aircraft, several false alarms already from show-of-force missions, lots of sea-based assets) but maybe we'll get some signs

I imagine it is a combination. Her ambitions (and Trump interfering) is her motive to break with trump. The Epstein files is her opportunity.

Not a mil/OSINT expert, but I doubt that flight trackers will give us any timely signals besides an inventory of aircraft in the buildup. We've already had B52's + B1's doing show-of-force right outside the VZ border. I doubt we'll have any signs of imminent action until Tomahawks are in the air

FWIW KC-135R traffic like that seems to be normal (at least normal for these times). The same aircraft (59-1459) was spotted doing a similar trip back in September

Replacing the BLS could be a lucrative opportunity

Yeah, even if the initial campaign can be narrow + mostly bombing/SOF, there's a lot more potential for the U.S. for the scope to expand in order to stabilize things post-Maduro

I think the worst case is not Vietnam 2.0 but Iraq 2.0, where the U.S. gets sucked into a messy nation-building project