Prof. Benjamin Forest
@benjaminforest.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Geography, McGill University; Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship; McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. Political representation, identity, and politics of memory. Also, dogs.
Opinions and bad puns are my own
Opinions and bad puns are my own
Hot off the press! A new, open access article in Political Geography, "What's in a name?" written with a former student (Lily Martin) and @excubs.bsky.social (Juliet Johnson) about removing "Providence Plantations" from Rhode Island's official name in 2020.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com
October 1, 2026 at 2:46 PM
Hot off the press! A new, open access article in Political Geography, "What's in a name?" written with a former student (Lily Martin) and @excubs.bsky.social (Juliet Johnson) about removing "Providence Plantations" from Rhode Island's official name in 2020.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Un débat animé sur la politique des sondages d'opinion dans La Presse.
www.lapresse.ca/elections-qu...
www.lapresse.ca/elections-qu...
Bullshit, Mathieu
Ce qui est clair dans cette élection, c’est que rien n’est clair. Rien n’est joué non plus et cette élection pleine de turbulences risque d’accoucher d’un gouvernement minoritaire…
www.lapresse.ca
September 2, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Un débat animé sur la politique des sondages d'opinion dans La Presse.
www.lapresse.ca/elections-qu...
www.lapresse.ca/elections-qu...
Nouvelle prévision basée sur un sondage Léger du 31 août (presque identique au sondage Pallas Data du 29). Le PQ est proche de la majorité et le PLQ semble avoir une nette avance sur la CAQ. Peu de changement pour le QS et le CPQ.
September 2, 2026 at 1:30 PM
Nouvelle prévision basée sur un sondage Léger du 31 août (presque identique au sondage Pallas Data du 29). Le PQ est proche de la majorité et le PLQ semble avoir une nette avance sur la CAQ. Peu de changement pour le QS et le CPQ.
Merci à @joffre.bsky.social d'avoir repéré une erreur flagrante dans mes prévisions. (Dans mon code, j'avais inversé les chiffres du vote libéral de 2022 : 41,4 % au lieu de 14,4 %.) Cela a amené le modèle à sous-estimer fortement le nombre de sièges libéraux. Voici le graphique corrigé pour Leger.
August 30, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Merci à @joffre.bsky.social d'avoir repéré une erreur flagrante dans mes prévisions. (Dans mon code, j'avais inversé les chiffres du vote libéral de 2022 : 41,4 % au lieu de 14,4 %.) Cela a amené le modèle à sous-estimer fortement le nombre de sièges libéraux. Voici le graphique corrigé pour Leger.
Stop the presses! Thanks to @joffre.bsky.social for identifying an obvious error in my forecast. (In my code, I transposed the digits of 2022 Liberal vote as 41.4% rather than the correct 14.4%.) That led the model to severely under-predict Liberal seats. Here's the corrected graph for Synopsis.
August 30, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Stop the presses! Thanks to @joffre.bsky.social for identifying an obvious error in my forecast. (In my code, I transposed the digits of 2022 Liberal vote as 41.4% rather than the correct 14.4%.) That led the model to severely under-predict Liberal seats. Here's the corrected graph for Synopsis.
Le sondage Léger du 24 août indiquait un appui plus important à la CAQ que le sondage Synopsis réalisé quatre jours plus tard. Ces résultats confèrent à la CAQ une confortable majorité.
August 30, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Le sondage Léger du 24 août indiquait un appui plus important à la CAQ que le sondage Synopsis réalisé quatre jours plus tard. Ces résultats confèrent à la CAQ une confortable majorité.
The next Quebec election is October 5 so it's time to fire up the swing model again. This is based on the 28 August poll by Synopsis, which is more favourable to the CAQ than other recent surveys. Based on it, the CAQ and PQ are neck-and-neck but no party is likely to win a majority of seats.
August 29, 2026 at 11:59 AM
The next Quebec election is October 5 so it's time to fire up the swing model again. This is based on the 28 August poll by Synopsis, which is more favourable to the CAQ than other recent surveys. Based on it, the CAQ and PQ are neck-and-neck but no party is likely to win a majority of seats.
More thoughts on the Callais decision and Alito's willfully colour-blindness assertion that there could be districts with both Black and Republican majorities. Even one such district would be impossible using counties as redistricting units, but what about precincts (the smallest possible units)?
May 18, 2026 at 2:51 PM
More thoughts on the Callais decision and Alito's willfully colour-blindness assertion that there could be districts with both Black and Republican majorities. Even one such district would be impossible using counties as redistricting units, but what about precincts (the smallest possible units)?
In the 2024 election, there were nine counties that had both Black and Republican majorities, all very close to 50%. All were in the rural Deep South: Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana. (Pop <40,000). Much more likely due to turnout differences than lots of Black voters supporting Trump.
May 11, 2026 at 6:55 PM
In the 2024 election, there were nine counties that had both Black and Republican majorities, all very close to 50%. All were in the rural Deep South: Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana. (Pop <40,000). Much more likely due to turnout differences than lots of Black voters supporting Trump.
This is a first approximation - Congressional districts are not based on county units - but Alito imagines the US is somehow like one county with fewer than 11,000 people, rather than one where race and party affiliation are closely linked.
Willful colourblindness.
Willful colourblindness.
May 11, 2026 at 4:15 PM
This is a first approximation - Congressional districts are not based on county units - but Alito imagines the US is somehow like one county with fewer than 11,000 people, rather than one where race and party affiliation are closely linked.
Willful colourblindness.
Willful colourblindness.
How likely is it that a district with a Republican majority would also have a majority of Black voters? I compared the presidential results from 2016 and 2020 against the 2020 share of Black population by county. For both elections, there was exactly ONE county like this: Early County, Georgia.
May 11, 2026 at 4:13 PM
How likely is it that a district with a Republican majority would also have a majority of Black voters? I compared the presidential results from 2016 and 2020 against the 2020 share of Black population by county. For both elections, there was exactly ONE county like this: Early County, Georgia.
Alito argues that a district plan driven by partisan gerrymandering is not racially conscious unless (perhaps) one can create an equally partisan plan that also (somehow) has a majority of Black voters.
May 11, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Alito argues that a district plan driven by partisan gerrymandering is not racially conscious unless (perhaps) one can create an equally partisan plan that also (somehow) has a majority of Black voters.
After reading Alito's Louisiana v. Callais opinion, has led me to jump back on Bluesky (at least for a little bit). In reading it, I was reminded of something Kimberlé Crenshaw said in a class I took with her at UCLA back in the 1990's: Colourblindness is a disability. In Alito's case, it's willful.
May 11, 2026 at 4:05 PM
After reading Alito's Louisiana v. Callais opinion, has led me to jump back on Bluesky (at least for a little bit). In reading it, I was reminded of something Kimberlé Crenshaw said in a class I took with her at UCLA back in the 1990's: Colourblindness is a disability. In Alito's case, it's willful.
I am pleased to share a new co-authored article on the symbolic politics of the EU flag. It's open access, so please read and share freely.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Aspirational Iconography: The European Union Flag as an Extraterritorial Political Symbol
How and why did the European Union (EU) flag, once a banal marker of European integration and institutions in its member states, become such a politically charged symbol outside of the EU? We demon...
www.tandfonline.com
October 29, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I am pleased to share a new co-authored article on the symbolic politics of the EU flag. It's open access, so please read and share freely.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I plan to post research-related material this week for APSA, but first, a reminder that they are coming for all of us soon.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
Texas Professor Fired After Accusations of Teaching ‘Gender Ideology’
www.nytimes.com
September 10, 2025 at 7:21 PM
I plan to post research-related material this week for APSA, but first, a reminder that they are coming for all of us soon.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.
June 17, 2025 at 7:41 PM
I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.
June 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...
May 14, 2025 at 12:32 PM
With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
Never. There, I said it.
May 6, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Never. There, I said it.
To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.
May 2, 2025 at 12:54 PM
To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.
The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).
April 30, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).
The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).
April 29, 2025 at 1:13 PM
The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).
CBC just called it for the Liberals.
April 29, 2025 at 2:14 AM
CBC just called it for the Liberals.