Ben Walker
@benwalker.org.uk
Co-Founder of @britainelects.com | [email protected]
New post:
The Burnham Bounce betrays what's happening in London, and why Holborn may still be a tight(er) fight
(and other, less ideal, things for the Greens)
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
The Burnham Bounce betrays what's happening in London, and why Holborn may still be a tight(er) fight
(and other, less ideal, things for the Greens)
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
October 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM
New post:
The Burnham Bounce betrays what's happening in London, and why Holborn may still be a tight(er) fight
(and other, less ideal, things for the Greens)
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
The Burnham Bounce betrays what's happening in London, and why Holborn may still be a tight(er) fight
(and other, less ideal, things for the Greens)
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Reposted by Ben Walker
For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...
EPOP collection
EPOP collection
www.cambridge.org
September 14, 2026 at 10:47 AM
For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...
New post:
Support for Reform among 2024 non-voters has almost halved...
BUT the decline and fall of Brand Farage isn't all it's made out to be. Context please.
Read all about it:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Support for Reform among 2024 non-voters has almost halved...
BUT the decline and fall of Brand Farage isn't all it's made out to be. Context please.
Read all about it:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Reform has peaked
Scandals have tarnished the party's image
www.newstatesman.com
September 14, 2026 at 11:01 AM
New post:
Support for Reform among 2024 non-voters has almost halved...
BUT the decline and fall of Brand Farage isn't all it's made out to be. Context please.
Read all about it:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Support for Reform among 2024 non-voters has almost halved...
BUT the decline and fall of Brand Farage isn't all it's made out to be. Context please.
Read all about it:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Reposted by Ben Walker
interesting election data from my old colleague @bwalker.uk who has managed to gather ward-level results for the Greater Manchester mayoral britainelects.substack.com/p/catch-up-g...
Catch up: Greater Manchester mayoral results by ward
What’s more remarkable, that Labour swept Gorton and Denton; or that the fourth-placed Tories were still winning wards?
britainelects.substack.com
September 2, 2026 at 10:30 AM
interesting election data from my old colleague @bwalker.uk who has managed to gather ward-level results for the Greater Manchester mayoral britainelects.substack.com/p/catch-up-g...
Reposted by Ben Walker
New @newstatesman1913.bsky.social pod! @bwalker.uk and I analysed the results as they came in the Clacton count, and tell you the story of a bizarre by-election night. Listen here:
Farage wins again at Clacton circus | The Politics Show
shows.acast.com
August 14, 2026 at 9:45 AM
New @newstatesman1913.bsky.social pod! @bwalker.uk and I analysed the results as they came in the Clacton count, and tell you the story of a bizarre by-election night. Listen here:
Radicalisation of the radicals, new post for the NS www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Restore voters can't stomach Nigel Farage
It will take more than a pact to win back the radical right
www.newstatesman.com
August 10, 2026 at 8:30 PM
Radicalisation of the radicals, new post for the NS www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Ben Walker
a true crime podcast I would listen to is one where the victims families walk in and sit down in the studio halfway through the episode
why do they do this. why do the true crime shows have so much confetti
August 9, 2026 at 6:28 PM
a true crime podcast I would listen to is one where the victims families walk in and sit down in the studio halfway through the episode
A very geeky post but important for the discourse
britainelects.substack.com/p/what-the-p...
britainelects.substack.com/p/what-the-p...
August 9, 2026 at 7:09 PM
A very geeky post but important for the discourse
britainelects.substack.com/p/what-the-p...
britainelects.substack.com/p/what-the-p...
I have a pretty geeky post out tomorrow morning on what forecasters might be getting wrong about where the parties are. Something good and bad for everyone. BritainElects.com
August 8, 2026 at 2:46 PM
I have a pretty geeky post out tomorrow morning on what forecasters might be getting wrong about where the parties are. Something good and bad for everyone. BritainElects.com
New post:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
August 4, 2026 at 9:36 AM
New post:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Brand Burnham at 35% positive, 24% negative according to Britain Elects poll tracker
britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
August 3, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Brand Burnham at 35% positive, 24% negative according to Britain Elects poll tracker
britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
Putting Brand Badenoch into perspective, staved the Tories from oblivion, but...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
August 2, 2026 at 7:38 AM
Putting Brand Badenoch into perspective, staved the Tories from oblivion, but...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Greater Manchester debrief
britainelects.substack.com/p/mancman-ba...
britainelects.substack.com/p/mancman-ba...
Mancman Backs Burnham — who knew?
What you won't read elsewhere
britainelects.substack.com
August 1, 2026 at 9:22 AM
Greater Manchester debrief
britainelects.substack.com/p/mancman-ba...
britainelects.substack.com/p/mancman-ba...
Reposted by Ben Walker
Please show this to various people in politics and media, while filming their reactions www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Are the Greens taking Reform votes?
The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour
www.newstatesman.com
March 31, 2026 at 5:12 PM
Please show this to various people in politics and media, while filming their reactions www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Reposted by Ben Walker
I'm late to it but @bwalker.uk spots something that makes sense, but is still fascinating: the Greens seem to be taking votes from Reform
"Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"
"Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"
Are the Greens taking Reform votes?
The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour
www.newstatesman.com
March 31, 2026 at 6:20 PM
I'm late to it but @bwalker.uk spots something that makes sense, but is still fascinating: the Greens seem to be taking votes from Reform
"Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"
"Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"
Hello geeks. Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?
March 18, 2026 at 7:10 PM
Hello geeks. Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?
Reposted by Ben Walker
Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk.
1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens.
2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s
3. Progressives were undecided til last minute
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens.
2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s
3. Progressives were undecided til last minute
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
The rise of the undecided voter
Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided
www.newstatesman.com
March 17, 2026 at 11:21 AM
Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk.
1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens.
2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s
3. Progressives were undecided til last minute
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens.
2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s
3. Progressives were undecided til last minute
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Great idea, any and all activists who have recollections from the EUref counts should get involved
Help us build the most accurate map of Brexit. Ten years on Rural-Spatial-Justice is crowdsourcing 'boxcounts' from observers at the referendum count to go beneath the results & find out the local geography of Leave & Remain. Click below to find out more.
open.substack.com/pub/ruralspa...
open.substack.com/pub/ruralspa...
Do you have boxcounts from the 2016 EU Referendum? Help us to build the most accurate map of Brexit.
For the tenth anniversary of Britain's EU referendum in June we're aiming to go beyond the published results to understand the local geographies of where voted Leave and Remain.
open.substack.com
March 15, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Great idea, any and all activists who have recollections from the EUref counts should get involved
Reposted by Ben Walker
Wow! makes me think of Willie Rennie!!! (Cartoon from @neilslorance.com )
February 27, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Wow! makes me think of Willie Rennie!!! (Cartoon from @neilslorance.com )
Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
February 26, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Reposted by Ben Walker
Yes, I know some tactical voting sites say otherwise. I refer you to the statement above. The polling is a toss up, maybe favouring the greens a tiny amount. Labour has the more established ground operation. It is too close to call.
February 25, 2026 at 11:11 PM
Yes, I know some tactical voting sites say otherwise. I refer you to the statement above. The polling is a toss up, maybe favouring the greens a tiny amount. Labour has the more established ground operation. It is too close to call.
Reposted by Ben Walker
Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning.
It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.
It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.
February 25, 2026 at 11:10 PM
Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning.
It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.
It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.
Reposted by Ben Walker
Reposted by Ben Walker
I've previously been critical of some people on here for favouring the YouGov poll over poll-of-polls average - the argument for YouGov being that the average is distorted by Find Out Now.
@bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.
@bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.
February 2, 2026 at 3:49 PM
I've previously been critical of some people on here for favouring the YouGov poll over poll-of-polls average - the argument for YouGov being that the average is distorted by Find Out Now.
@bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.
@bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.
New post: likely ward by ward breakdowns of Gorton and Denton if it voted today.
It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?
Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder
www.newstatesman.com
February 2, 2026 at 12:39 PM
New post: likely ward by ward breakdowns of Gorton and Denton if it voted today.
It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...