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Box Office Theory
@boxofficetheory.com
110 followers 10 following 180 posts
- SUBSCRIBE: http://boxofficetheory.substack.com
- Theatrical Box Office Forecasts, Tracking, & Consulting
- Home of the BOT Forums
- Founded by @ShawnRobbins
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5-Week Box Office Forecasts: GODZILLA MINUS ZERO ($25M+), THE CAT IN THE HAT, and More Early November Prospects

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#GodzillaMinusZero #CatInTheHat #Ramayana #Digger #Verity #BoxOffice
5-Week Box Office Forecasts: GODZILLA MINUS ZERO ($25M+), THE CAT IN THE HAT, and More Early November Prospects
The early days of the theatrical holiday season come into view this week with a handful of preliminary forecasts joining our five-week outlook.
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October 2, 2026 at 4:55 PM
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Weekend Box Office Forecast: VERITY ($24M+) Looks to Upset DIGGER ($7.5-10M+) for October’s First Frame

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#Verity #Digger #ResidentEvil #HeartOfTheBeast #BoxOffice
Weekend Box Office Forecast: VERITY ($24M+) Looks to Upset DIGGER ($7.5-10M+) for October’s First Frame
Mixed reviews and modest pre-sales are unfortunately positioning DIGGER closer to the box office performance of THE BRIDE! than ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
September 30, 2026 at 3:29 PM
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5-Week Box Office Forecasts: AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE and PRIMETIME Chasing Possible $20M+ Frames; DIGGER and VERITY’s Latest Outlooks

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#Avengers #Primetime #Digger #Verity #OtherMommy #StreetFighter #Clayface #BoxOffice
5-Week Box Office Forecasts: AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE and PRIMETIME Chasing Possible $20M+ Frames; DIGGER and VERITY’s Latest Outlooks
Marvel, Pattinson, Pitt, and DreamWorks are driving a strong final September frame, while October outlooks continue to shape up for DIGGER, VERITY, OTHER MOMMY, CLAYFACE, and more.
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September 25, 2026 at 3:35 PM
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Weekend Box Office Forecast: From #AvengersEndgame Encore ($18M+) and #ResidentEvil to the Rising Tides of #Primetime ($15M+) and #HeartOfTheBeast ($14M)+, Top 5 Rankings May Come Down to the Wire

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#ForgottenIsland #BoxOffice
Weekend Box Office Forecast: From AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE ($18M+) and RESIDENT EVIL to the Rising Tides of PRIMETIME ($15M+) and HEART OF THE BEAST ($14M)+, Top 5 Rankings May Come Down to the Wire
September's final frame welcomes a host of new releases, each courting a different audience and providing the kind of old-school autumnal variety which theater owners (and moviegoers) love to see.
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September 23, 2026 at 4:49 PM
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RESIDENT EVIL Scores $8.8M Previews, Pacing for $55-65M Domestic Start; Early CLAYFACE Forecasts ($20-26M+); PRIMETIME, VERITY, and More Tracking Updates

boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/5-week-box...

#ResidentEvil #Clayface #BoxOffice
RESIDENT EVIL Scores $8.8M Previews, Pacing for $55-65M Domestic Start; Early CLAYFACE Forecasts ($20-26M+); PRIMETIME, VERITY, and More Tracking Updates
Zach Cregger's RESIDENT EVIL is already over-performing high-end box office expectations. Plus, early projections for DC's CLAYFACE and other key updates.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
September 18, 2026 at 5:18 PM
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Box Office Forecast: Zach Cregger’s RESIDENT EVIL Tracking for Domestic Start North of WEAPONS ($44M+), Best-Ever Launch By R-Rated Game Adaptation

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#ResidentEvil #ZachCregger #BoxOffice
Box Office Forecast: Zach Cregger’s RESIDENT EVIL Tracking for Domestic Start North of WEAPONS ($44M+), Best-Ever Launch By R-Rated Game Adaptation
It may still feel like summer in some parts of the country, but spooky season is officially on in theaters as filmmaker Zach Cregger delivers his adaptation of the iconic horror game franchise.
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September 16, 2026 at 5:52 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: STREET FIGHTER and WHALEFALL Additions; RESIDENT EVIL ($45M+), AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE ($19M+) and More Check-Ins

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#StreetFighter #ResidentEvil #AvengersEndgameEncore #Whalefall #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: STREET FIGHTER and WHALEFALL Additions; RESIDENT EVIL ($45M+), AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE ($19M+) and More Check-Ins
Will the classic Capcom fighter follow in the footsteps of recent 1980s/1990s legacy IP theatrical performers? Plus, updates on RESIDENT EVIL, PRIMETIME, and more.
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September 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: PRACTICAL MAGIC 2 ($31M+) to Kick Off Fall-oween Season; Sunday’s the Likely Target for SPIDER-MAN to Surpass STAR WARS #1 All-Time and ODYSSEY to Cross $600M Milestone

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#PracticalMagic2 #SpiderMan #TheOdyssey #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: PRACTICAL MAGIC 2 ($31M+) to Kick Off Fall-oween Season; Sunday’s the Likely Target for SPIDER-MAN to Surpass STAR WARS #1 All-Time and ODYSSEY to Cross $600M Milestone
As football hits full stride, Warner Bros.' timely female-aimed nostalgia sequel will be the pic to finally dethrone BRAND NEW DAY from the top spot.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
September 9, 2026 at 9:08 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: DIGGER + VERITY ($20M+ Each) Pit a Cruise vs. Hathaway Showdown; Initial Outlooks for OTHER MOMMY and THE SOCIAL RECKONING

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#Digger #Verity #OtherMommy #SocialReckoning #Avengers #ResidentEvil #PracticalMagic2 #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: DIGGER and VERITY ($20M+ Each) Pit a Cruise vs. Hathaway Showdown; Initial Outlooks for OTHER MOMMY and THE SOCIAL RECKONING
After a September that may struggle to match 2025's levels, October presents several early candidates which could help Q4 begin in a positive way and resume 2026's overall excellent momentum.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
September 3, 2026 at 5:56 PM
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4-Day Labor Day Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Goes for 6 Straight # 1s and THE ODYSSEY Continues Charging Toward $600M Domestic as Summer Ends

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#SpiderMan #TheOdyssey #CoyoteVsAcme #BoxOffice
4-Day Labor Day Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Goes for 6 Straight #1s and THE ODYSSEY Continues Charging Toward $600M Domestic as Summer Ends
Year-over-year comps are skewed with an extra week of summer in play this year, but Labor Day will bring the usual variety of strong holdovers and low-key openers.
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September 2, 2026 at 5:09 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 4-Week Updates on PRACTICAL MAGIC 2, RESIDENT EVIL, and AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE ($15-20M+)

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#Avengers #EndgameEncore #AvengersEndgame #ResidentEvil #PracticalMagic2 #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 4-Week Updates on PRACTICAL MAGIC 2, RESIDENT EVIL, and AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE ($15-20M+)
Early fall forecasts continue to evolve coming off a hot summer market as 2026 continues trending toward $10 billion-plus domestically.
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August 28, 2026 at 8:41 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Marches Toward $900M Domestic, Eyes 5th #1 Frame; Will COYOTE VS. ACME Sneak Into the Top 3?

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#SpiderMan #CoyoteVsAcme #TheOdyssey #TheDogStars #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Marches Toward $900M Domestic, Eyes 5th #1 Frame; Will COYOTE VS. ACME Sneak Into the Top 3?
The dog days of summer box office are truly upon us. Even with a light release slate, though, holdover strength will again carry positive year-over-year comparisons.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
August 26, 2026 at 7:55 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Could AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE Dethrone (Again) AVATAR’s $2.9 Billion Global Record in Pre-DOOMSDAY Re-Issue?

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#Avengers #AvengersEndgame #AvengersDoomsday #Doomsday #MCU #Marvel #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Could AVENGERS ENDGAME: ENCORE Dethrone (Again) AVATAR’s $2.9 Billion Global Record in Pre-DOOMSDAY Re-Issue?
Riding the wave of hype behind Robert Downey Jr. and company's MCU return in December, what can we initially expect from Disney and Marvel's re-release? Spoiler: It's very hard to say.
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August 21, 2026 at 5:21 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Hunts AVENGERS: ENDGAME for #2 All Time; THE ODYSSEY to Pass THE DARK KNIGHT as Nolan’s Top Grosser; INSIDIOUS Aims for Late Summer Scares

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#SpiderMan #BrandNewDay #TheOdyssey #Insidious #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Hunts AVENGERS: ENDGAME for #2 All Time; THE ODYSSEY to Pass THE DARK KNIGHT as Nolan’s Top Grosser; INSIDIOUS Aims for Late Summer Scares
As Sony and Blumhouse's veteran horror franchise returns, the Marvel blockbuster and Christopher Nolan's epic continue chasing historic milestones.
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August 19, 2026 at 6:19 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Why Zach Cregger’s RESIDENT EVIL Could Continue Taking R-Rated Game Adaptations to the Next Level

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#ResidentEvil #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Why Zach Cregger’s RESIDENT EVIL Could Continue Taking R-Rated Game Adaptations to the Next Level
Hot off WEAPONS' runaway success, the mind of Zach Cregger will meet the world of mature video game translations for the big screen in time for spooky season.
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August 14, 2026 at 4:43 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY to Three-Peat + Surpass TOP GUN: MAVERICK's Total, END OF OAK STREET and PAW PATROL Counter-Program, and THE ODYSSEY Nears $500M Domestic

boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#SpiderMan #TheOdyssey #EndOfOakStreet #PAWPatrol #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY to Three-Peat and Surpass TOP GUN: MAVERICK's Total Haul, END OF OAK STREET and PAW PATROL Counter-Program, and THE ODYSSEY Nears $500M Domestic
Summer movie season continues winding down, but another strong frame led by Spidey's chase weekend business is on deck.
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August 12, 2026 at 8:06 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: August Updates, and Why PRACTICAL MAGIC 2 Could Kick Off Fall Movie Season In a Strong Way

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#PracticalMagic2 #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: August Updates, and Why PRACTICAL MAGIC 2 Could Kick Off Fall Movie Season In a Strong Way
For many, the Halloween corridor begins after Labor Day. Warner Bros. is teeing up their next seasonal sequel to legacy IP in hopes of a timely theatrical run.
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August 7, 2026 at 9:05 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Targets Potential Best-Ever 2nd Frame; THE ODYSSEY to Surpass DARK KNIGHT RISES' Total

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#SpiderMan #SpiderManBrandNewDay #TheOdyssey #Marvel #MCU #Nolan #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY ($142-160M) Targets Potential Best-Ever 2nd Frame After $360.1M Record Launch; THE ODYSSEY to Pass THE DARK KNIGHT RISES as Nolan’s #2 Grosser
Peter Parker and friends are chasing Star Wars and Avengers: Endgame with a giant sophomore frame on deck, while Nolan's own ascent up the all-time box office charts continues.
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August 5, 2026 at 7:15 PM
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SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY and THE ODYSSEY On Course for Potential $300M+ Combined Domestic Box Office Frame

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#SpiderManBrandNewDay #SpiderMan #Marvel #MCU #TheOdyssey #Nolan #BoxOffice #TomHolland #Zendaya #JonBernthal #IMAX #Sony #Universal
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY and THE ODYSSEY On Course for Potential $300M+ Combined Moviegoing Frame
Marvel and Spidey are chasing their own records while Nolan's epic remains a force as the weekend ahead may rival "Barbenheimer"'s moviegoing attendance three years ago.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
July 29, 2026 at 6:33 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Check-In, Latest Ranges for THE END OF OAK STREET, INSIDIOUS, & More

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#SpiderMan #BoxOffice #Insidious #TheEndOfOakStreet
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Check-In, Latest Ranges for THE END OF OAK STREET, INSIDIOUS, & More
As THE ODYSSEY enters the first of many expected chase weeks, one of the year's biggest expected openers is just around the corner.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
July 24, 2026 at 5:02 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: Christopher Nolan's THE ODYSSEY Rides Stellar Audience Reception in Weekday Holds, Could Land $70-80M+ Sophomore Frame

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#TheOdyssey #Nolan #ChristopherNolan #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: Christopher Nolan's THE ODYSSEY Rides Stellar Audience Reception in Weekday Holds, Could Land $70-80M+ Sophomore Frame
With THE ODYSSEY buzz machine in full force and captivated audiences across multiple generations pouring into cinemas, Nolan's epic eyes a strong second weekend performance.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
July 22, 2026 at 9:01 PM
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Box Office: THE ODYSSEY Starts Big, SPIDER-MAN Pacing $212-228M+, THE END OF OAK STREET and INSIDIOUS: OUT OF THE FURTHER Early Outlooks

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#TheOdyssey #SpiderMan #SpiderManBrandNewDay #EndOfOakStreet #Insidious #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY ($212-228M+) Check-In; Early Outlooks for THE END OF OAK STREET and INSIDIOUS: OUT OF THE FURTHER
As summer season hits its crest with THE ODYSSEY debuting and SPIDER-MAN just weeks away, we take a look at how the remainder of July and core August releases are shaping up.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
July 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM
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Weekend Forecast: Nolan’s THE ODYSSEY Aims for Potential $100M+ Box Office Debut, Stands at 98% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes

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#TheOdyssey #Nolan #ChristopherNolan #MattDamon #TomHolland #Zendaya #AnneHathaway #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: Christopher Nolan’s THE ODYSSEY Tracking to Defy the Gods, Aims for Potential $100 Million+ Domestic Launch
Nolan's 13th feature film is upon the moviegoing world. Here's what to expect and what's driving final forecasts for the weekend ahead.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
July 15, 2026 at 5:41 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: MOANA Update, THE ODYSSEY and SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Check-Ins, Plus Early August Outlooks

#Moana #TheOdyssey #SpiderMan #EvilDeadBurn #BoxOffice

boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: MOANA Update, THE ODYSSEY and SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY Check-Ins, Plus Early August Outlooks
Midsummer box office remains in a strong place despite a couple of recent underperformances, while THE ODYSSEY and SPIDER-MAN now lurk in the shadows of a top-heavy July and August.
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July 2, 2026 at 10:17 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: MINIONS & MONSTERS to Battle TOY STORY 5; Can YOUNG WASHINGTON Become the Next Angel Studios Breakout During America's 250th Anniversary?

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#Minions #YoungWashington #ToyStory5 #Supergirl #BoxOffice #America250 #WorldCup
Box Office Weekend Forecast: MINIONS & MONSTERS to Battle TOY STORY 5; Can YOUNG WASHINGTON Become the Next Angel Studios Breakout During America's 250th Anniversary?
Quincentennial celebrations, heat waves, and the World Cup may influence moviegoing over the long holiday weekend, but openers and holdovers could still help yield some high notes.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
July 1, 2026 at 5:14 PM