The S&P 500 is at all-time highs despite...

The Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.

High tariffs supposedly returning in July.

Consumer sentiment near 50-year lows in the UMich survey...

That seems crazy, so it's a good time to hunt for value wherever it can be found... 🧵

I remember after the financial crisis seeing quotes like this and people were wondering how they missed the writing on the wall. That doesn't mean this definitely blows up or that if it does it's as bad as that.

I do think there's quite a bit of whistling past the graveyard in the market right now.

This is also the story of a near miss and a lesson on arbitrage plays in the current environment.

I could have had an eight bagger if my timing were a bit better!

x.com/DeepValueDi...

This should make anyone invested heavily in AI hesitate.

It's not logical, it's evidence that simply declaring yourself an AI company will make money rain down upon you.

That's what happened to $BIRD.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

Any other investors have prompts or tricks with AI they're willing to share?

Mine: When I have a thesis, I like to write it out to Claude & ask it to poke as many holes as it can in my idea.

It's a pretty good "Red Team." I usually either learn something or refine my argument.

OK, I'm not always the pessimist. I looked into this one and the math is actually less scary than the headlines about losing 30% of the world's helium supplies suggest. 🧵

x.com/Rory_Johnst...

When Warren Buffett talks, I listen.

When he warns about fragility in the banking system, I pay attention. 🧵

I agree with most of this thread, but I'm respectfully pushing back on the rerouting math here — I think it overstates how much oil is actually getting out. 🧵

x.com/CXCarroll/s...

I think most investors have done a terrible job forecasting Fed rates for several years now, in these unusual times.

Yesterday, Jerome Powell spoke and I think the market either came to the wrong conclusion or froze from uncertainty.

🧵

#$ONON was down 12% today on a leadership shakeup. I recently opened my position, and today I'm buying more.

The market hates the shakeup, but here's why I think it's actually a good development that leans into On's competitive advantages. 🧵

#$ONON seems cheap at a forward multiple of 25.6 w/ strong earnings growth & a 31% ROIC.

LightSpray tech is a game changer for manufacturing & performance.

Since my newsletter is new, I made all articles free temporarily, so take a look around!

deepvaluedigest.substack.com/p/73-cagr-in...

It's rare I find my way into a growth stock as a deep value investor, but one I've been watching just became cheap. IMO it should be down ~3% off the war, it's down ~15%.

I see no long term destruction of its value. I bought it this morning, writing it up for Deep Value Digest tonight.

#investing

This is a ridiculous opportunity in the midst of market chaos. A Japanese stock that's been profitable 19 straight years is trading below NCAV, & there's a reasonable case they'd rake in record profits if manufacturing slows down or stops.

deepvaluedigest.substack.com/p/always-pro...

#deepvalue

My investing strategy is protecting my downside w/ strong margin of safety, not making risky bets chasing multibaggers. Occasionally I find one that offers the best of both.

This business just got a huge tax cut that'll significantly increase its earnings, and it trades at about 2x tangible book.

This holiday season, I happened to run across an interesting small business that I think was a good example of some trends in the economy that investors should be thinking about...

Christmas Case Study: They Fired Santa??? open.substack.com/pub/deepvalu...

#valueinvesting #investing #economics

My first post on Substack has 10 stocks:

- 5 Net-Nets, 4 more below 1.3x NCAV
- 7 trade below 10x earnings
- All profitable businesses

I figured I would go big to launch Deep Value Digest. Let me know what you think.

#ValueInvesting #DeepValue

deepvaluedigest.substack.com/p/deep-value...