Divyang Shah
@divyang.bsky.social
Charts and thoughts on markets. Currently IFR Markets/LSEG previously Reuters.
Interesting price action today on EA bonds. Core markets vs the rest....but BTPs and the curve move is what stands out.
October 1, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Interesting price action today on EA bonds. Core markets vs the rest....but BTPs and the curve move is what stands out.
Used to be the Dec meeting but now the Mar meeting is more important and the question of 2.75% vs 3.00% ECB depo rate
September 10, 2026 at 11:20 AM
Used to be the Dec meeting but now the Mar meeting is more important and the question of 2.75% vs 3.00% ECB depo rate
This was the only bit I found interesting from the Farage press conference
July 7, 2026 at 1:30 PM
This was the only bit I found interesting from the Farage press conference
PM Starmer is using the weekend to prepare for an early exit
June 20, 2026 at 1:30 PM
PM Starmer is using the weekend to prepare for an early exit
Bunds have gone nowhere special the last 1-month. 1w and 1m smiles not sending strong signals...Double top at 128.58
February 9, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Bunds have gone nowhere special the last 1-month. 1w and 1m smiles not sending strong signals...Double top at 128.58
Warsh's Fed chair audition song ....
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
January 30, 2026 at 1:03 PM
Warsh's Fed chair audition song ....
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
GLD vol surface...
December 22, 2025 at 4:09 PM
GLD vol surface...
Treasuries and Bunds having a touch of meh as JGB yields continue higher
December 4, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Treasuries and Bunds having a touch of meh as JGB yields continue higher
H/t to @mrmbrown.bsky.social from the other side...the Ramsden indicator
November 6, 2025 at 4:05 PM
H/t to @mrmbrown.bsky.social from the other side...the Ramsden indicator
Trump helps to reset the counter back to zero....
October 13, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Trump helps to reset the counter back to zero....
Bund implieds including those at the wings are at their YTD lows...a reflection of Bunds trading with a fresh lower floor on its range
September 23, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Bund implieds including those at the wings are at their YTD lows...a reflection of Bunds trading with a fresh lower floor on its range
ECB pricing for Sep meeting (blue) and front-month WTI (white) correlated since Israel-Iran conflict began
June 17, 2025 at 2:20 PM
ECB pricing for Sep meeting (blue) and front-month WTI (white) correlated since Israel-Iran conflict began
CBC on TWD...it has "returned to a relatively stable situation."
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
May 6, 2025 at 3:36 PM
CBC on TWD...it has "returned to a relatively stable situation."
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
Risk pricing is not seeing today as having a lasting vol impact, instead seen as a peak vol event
April 2, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Risk pricing is not seeing today as having a lasting vol impact, instead seen as a peak vol event
Volatility but now Gilts sharply unchanged after Spring Statement
March 26, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Volatility but now Gilts sharply unchanged after Spring Statement
There are two types of people at the #ecbwatchers conference. Those that take photos with their phones horizontal and those keeping them vertical.
March 12, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There are two types of people at the #ecbwatchers conference. Those that take photos with their phones horizontal and those keeping them vertical.
VIX futures trade a discount to spot...out to Oct
February 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
VIX futures trade a discount to spot...out to Oct
9 consecutive days of higher highs on 10yr Bund yields...what happens next?
January 14, 2025 at 4:55 PM
9 consecutive days of higher highs on 10yr Bund yields...what happens next?
50bp cut and inflation forecasts for next year were still revised lower....ZIRP/NIRP in play
December 12, 2024 at 11:26 AM
50bp cut and inflation forecasts for next year were still revised lower....ZIRP/NIRP in play
Comparing Dec vs Jan smiles
December 6, 2024 at 12:34 PM
Comparing Dec vs Jan smiles
While Dec expiry OAT option vols have been sticky the same is not true for Jan expiry OAT option vols that have seen the wings move lower....coupled with the move down on spreads/CDS the market is pricing out the risk
December 6, 2024 at 12:23 PM
While Dec expiry OAT option vols have been sticky the same is not true for Jan expiry OAT option vols that have seen the wings move lower....coupled with the move down on spreads/CDS the market is pricing out the risk