Juergen E.L. Meyer, 眼界-Horizon - Shanghai
@jmey.bsky.social
Dr. Jürgen Meyer, Interim Management, Risk Management in China. I post on the economic development of China with view from a company, but taking international relations into. My key topics are finance, risk management, controlling, IT, SAP etc.
5/5 Die Krankenversicherung wird folgen müssen, sie ist für zu viele nicht mehr bezahlbar. Dabei werden auch die gut versorgten Beamten einzubeziehen sein.
October 2, 2026 at 3:48 PM
5/5 Die Krankenversicherung wird folgen müssen, sie ist für zu viele nicht mehr bezahlbar. Dabei werden auch die gut versorgten Beamten einzubeziehen sein.
4/5 Kein Wunder, dass diejenigen, die meinen, alle mit scheinbaren Wohltätigkeiten versorgen zu müssen, jetzt nach mehr Einnahmen suchen und sich mit einer Konsolidierung von sozialen Umlagesystemen (Renten- und Pflegeversicherung) schwer tun.
October 2, 2026 at 3:48 PM
4/5 Kein Wunder, dass diejenigen, die meinen, alle mit scheinbaren Wohltätigkeiten versorgen zu müssen, jetzt nach mehr Einnahmen suchen und sich mit einer Konsolidierung von sozialen Umlagesystemen (Renten- und Pflegeversicherung) schwer tun.
3/5 Die Politik hat sich in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten jeden Schuh angezogen, der ihnen angetragen wurde. Subsidiarität (d.h. was der Einzelne tun kann, hat er auch zu tun; was in einer Gemeinschaft – bspw. Versicherung – gemacht werden kann, gehört dahin) wurde vernachlässigt.
October 2, 2026 at 3:48 PM
3/5 Die Politik hat sich in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten jeden Schuh angezogen, der ihnen angetragen wurde. Subsidiarität (d.h. was der Einzelne tun kann, hat er auch zu tun; was in einer Gemeinschaft – bspw. Versicherung – gemacht werden kann, gehört dahin) wurde vernachlässigt.
2/5 Die Überschrift ändert sich zuweilen: "Die Deutschen haben ihre Marktwirtschaft abgewählt" und bislang ist ja noch!?! nicht Bundesdeutschland von allen Randparteien vereinnahmt.
October 2, 2026 at 3:48 PM
2/5 Die Überschrift ändert sich zuweilen: "Die Deutschen haben ihre Marktwirtschaft abgewählt" und bislang ist ja noch!?! nicht Bundesdeutschland von allen Randparteien vereinnahmt.
6/6 ... like in the property market, where Chinese citizens have lost a substantial amount of their wealth.
October 2, 2026 at 3:11 PM
6/6 ... like in the property market, where Chinese citizens have lost a substantial amount of their wealth.
5/6 (3) The third is the repayment of the debt. If sufficient productivity (again) is missing and in the absence of inflation (which would make a nominal repayment easier), it will turn out as a usage of the people's savings. Almost ...
October 2, 2026 at 3:11 PM
5/6 (3) The third is the repayment of the debt. If sufficient productivity (again) is missing and in the absence of inflation (which would make a nominal repayment easier), it will turn out as a usage of the people's savings. Almost ...
4/6 (2) I again have much doubt about how these investments will increase productivity. I don't see productivity as a driver of that concept, but just spending to increase GDP - far whatever reason.
October 2, 2026 at 3:11 PM
4/6 (2) I again have much doubt about how these investments will increase productivity. I don't see productivity as a driver of that concept, but just spending to increase GDP - far whatever reason.
3/6 (1) This investment initiative indirectly proves that the boost of consumption will not be as large in the next decade as many announcements suggested. That is a necessary step forward to reality.
October 2, 2026 at 3:11 PM
3/6 (1) This investment initiative indirectly proves that the boost of consumption will not be as large in the next decade as many announcements suggested. That is a necessary step forward to reality.
2/6 Although the 25trn yuan might be aloted within the next 5 years according to needs (whoever needs what?) like a medicine can be adjusted, three aspects draw my attention:
October 2, 2026 at 3:11 PM
2/6 Although the 25trn yuan might be aloted within the next 5 years according to needs (whoever needs what?) like a medicine can be adjusted, three aspects draw my attention:
6/6 And more generally: Prices increasingly lose their information character to balance a market economy in China.
September 30, 2026 at 10:53 PM
6/6 And more generally: Prices increasingly lose their information character to balance a market economy in China.
5/6 The middle class not already subsidized by the party needs to be supported to keep the loyalty of middle-class youngsters who are facing unemployment or low income after graduation.
September 30, 2026 at 10:53 PM
5/6 The middle class not already subsidized by the party needs to be supported to keep the loyalty of middle-class youngsters who are facing unemployment or low income after graduation.
4/6 “It also excludes purchases of government-subsidized affordable housing and purchases.” What does it tell us?
The target group is mainly young people starting their private lives but having a wealthy enough background to afford house ownership.
The target group is mainly young people starting their private lives but having a wealthy enough background to afford house ownership.
September 30, 2026 at 10:53 PM
4/6 “It also excludes purchases of government-subsidized affordable housing and purchases.” What does it tell us?
The target group is mainly young people starting their private lives but having a wealthy enough background to afford house ownership.
The target group is mainly young people starting their private lives but having a wealthy enough background to afford house ownership.
3/6 “To qualify, buyers must take out a new mortgage for a first home measuring no more than 120 square meters (…) and priced under 1.5 million yuan.” The “subsidy does not apply to borrowers refinancing existing mortgages.”
September 30, 2026 at 10:53 PM
3/6 “To qualify, buyers must take out a new mortgage for a first home measuring no more than 120 square meters (…) and priced under 1.5 million yuan.” The “subsidy does not apply to borrowers refinancing existing mortgages.”
2/6 In fact, it targets a very specific group of citizens defined by the conditions: “policymakers aim to … ease the financial burden on urban workers and young graduates”.
September 30, 2026 at 10:53 PM
2/6 In fact, it targets a very specific group of citizens defined by the conditions: “policymakers aim to … ease the financial burden on urban workers and young graduates”.
There are almost always these three possibilities: Exit, Voice, and Loyalty
See the Book of Albert O. Hirschman
See the Book of Albert O. Hirschman
September 29, 2026 at 10:44 AM
There are almost always these three possibilities: Exit, Voice, and Loyalty
See the Book of Albert O. Hirschman
See the Book of Albert O. Hirschman
9/9 The conflict between China and the US rises from (a) and (b) above and (c) that the US is concentrating its high trade deficit not with all other countries but mainly with China, which is at least partly because of (b).
September 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
9/9 The conflict between China and the US rises from (a) and (b) above and (c) that the US is concentrating its high trade deficit not with all other countries but mainly with China, which is at least partly because of (b).
8/9 But that on each side of international trade there is a concentration in US and Chinese hands is just a coincidence, not a financial necessity.
September 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
8/9 But that on each side of international trade there is a concentration in US and Chinese hands is just a coincidence, not a financial necessity.
7/9 The possibility of the concentrated exports by China has different reasons, and I believe the reasons for China’s trade surplus are independent of those for the trade deficit the US has. To be clear: the total of the world’s trade gains and deficits equals zero at each point in time.
September 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
7/9 The possibility of the concentrated exports by China has different reasons, and I believe the reasons for China’s trade surplus are independent of those for the trade deficit the US has. To be clear: the total of the world’s trade gains and deficits equals zero at each point in time.
6/9 If China would not be the only one or better the one with that big number of exports to the US, the US would live happily and don’t worry about their way of living as long as the amount of the reserves other countries hold in US-Dollar doesn’t shrink. That’s what they did up to the early 2010s.
September 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
6/9 If China would not be the only one or better the one with that big number of exports to the US, the US would live happily and don’t worry about their way of living as long as the amount of the reserves other countries hold in US-Dollar doesn’t shrink. That’s what they did up to the early 2010s.
5/9 (If there were a joint political understanding between the two, they could act jointly, as currently Japan and the US do in terms of their currency exchange rate.)
September 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
5/9 (If there were a joint political understanding between the two, they could act jointly, as currently Japan and the US do in terms of their currency exchange rate.)
4/9 That trade surplus is just so important as it is (a) concentrated in one hand (the Chinese) and (b) used for political purposes, which are not in line with America’s politics.
September 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
4/9 That trade surplus is just so important as it is (a) concentrated in one hand (the Chinese) and (b) used for political purposes, which are not in line with America’s politics.